Eddie Lack vs. Ryan Miller - who do we keep moving forward?

[arttk]

I would move Lack for the 16th without thinking twice. That's a no-brainer deal.

31st or 33rd is much closer to where his value lies, and that's a tough call. But the more draft rankings we see, the more it becomes clear just how little separation there is in the 16-36 range of this draft.

Like I said, if you get an Ek-Eriksson, Boeser, Roy type prospect, you absolutely have look at it.

First, I am not sure getting a at best 2nd liner and 2nd paring Dman in 3-5 years is worth solving our one of our divisional rivals biggest issue.

Second, If Markstrom and Demko don't come through for us we are going to be going through Cloutier years again. Remember, goalie development is insanely uncertain. You are basically giving up a #1 goalie that can last us a good 5 years for a potential 2nd liner or 2nd paring Dman. The important point is potential, the historic success rate for a 2nd rounder is at 10ish percent ?

 

[canucksfan]

Is Markstrom a UFA?

 

[MikeK]

Is Markstrom a UFA?

No. RFA and waiver eligible

 

[arttk]

Who said anything about Lack failing? A .914SV% isn't failing. But if Miller is dealt and Lack has that type of season, his agent is going to be looking for starter money - and that number they seek will likely start with a 5.

What does Lack get from Benning? Remember he's the worst negotiator in the NHL... Is it $5.75mil X 5 years? Let's not pretend there is no risk here with Lack. If he's James Reimer, it could sting locking him up to a big contract. Tough to say if he's Reimer or Rinne, or somewhere in between.

.914 will not get anyone a 5x5ish contract and you know it.
That's like bottom 10 NHL starter performance.

Great so now you admit that Benning sucks at contract. I think if he sucks that much to give a 5x5ish contract for such performance, we have bigger problems to worry about.

 

[I in the Eye]

I wouldn't move Lack if all you're getting is a mid to late 2nd Rd pick. But if we're talking Buffalo's 2nd(31st) or Edmonton's 2nd(33rd) it's something to give serious consideration to. There will be guys available at those picks that Could conceivably go in the mid-1st Rd. If we're talking an EK-Eriksson, Colin White, Brock Boeser, Jeremy Roy type return, it could be a smart play.

People are overlooking 1 big thing with Lack - his contract status. If he puts up a .914SV% next season and wants a 5 year, $25mil commitment, how do you handle it? Are you getting much 'value' out of a $5mil Eddie Lack?

On the flip side, you could conceivably get tremendous value out of Makstrom depending on how the next couple years go. He's had an AHL MVP type season and has his career back on the rails with some good coaching. I would be very reluctant to give him away after the season he's just had.

You look at the worst case when it comes to Lack, and the best case when it comes to Markstrom.

In your eyes, what would need to happen for Lack to be worth a 1st rounder next year, compared to a 2nd rounder this year?

In your eyes, what would need to happen for Markstrom to be worth a 2nd rounder next year, compared to a mid-pick to free this year via waivers?

If you trade Lack this year, IMHO, you're selling low on Lack. If you trade Markstrom this year, IMHO, you're selling low on Markstrom. Even if Markstrom has a good season, he would basically need to match what Lack did this year, take over #1 role for an extended period of time, during very important games, to just be worth a 2nd. Even then, he doesn't have two years in a row to back this up with, and his value will be driven down by the argument of "sample size". But still, if even worth just a 2nd, much better than he's worth today. He has it in him to be a NHL backup and show potential at the NHL level, IMO. How much potential? Lack potential? Greater than Lack potential? That's to be determined. He has to prove himself as a clear NHL player first, IMHO. He has to prove capable of filling in as #1 for extended periods before can even talk about him being a potential #1... never mind a good to great one.

If you'd rather have a 1st than 2nd, you should be advocating trading Lack next year. Lack's the one you should be betting on. The reason why he's the most valuable out of the three, this year, is because he is the safest bet. You should be betting on Markstrom first proving he belongs as a backup NHL goaltender, before betting on him doing a Lack impression... and making Lack expendable for a 1st next year. Unlike the majority of GM's (according to the probable value they place on our goaltenders this year), and posters in this thread (according to the poll results) only a few, including yourself and Benning in that group, would bet on Markstrom over Lack. If you're not right, for you that's fine (we're posters, we're not trained professional scouts... and big deal, this is all for fun anyways), but for Benning, that's inexcusable. If your group is right, then kudos for your group. Well deserved. You bet on the right horse, at the right time, not only against the grain, but against the universe's probabilities. You would be a part of a select group that is perhaps seeing this on a quantum level, where sometimes the square peg fits nicely and easily into a round hole. It's possible I'm wrong about Benning, and about this goaltending situation. I'm looking at it from a certain vantage point, and a certain pair of eyes. Perhaps Benning is a particle physicist, and the Canucks are his hadron collider... in a space where wacky things work, and reality as we know it breaks down. Sym Jim.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

.914 will not get anyone a 5x5ish contract and you know it.

If the Canucks deal Miller, and Lack is a 28 year old starting goalie in Vancouver, his agent is looking for $5mil+ if Eddie is having a decent season.

Starting goalies are making good money in today's NHL. Lack will want that too, and at his age, he knows he gets 1 or 2 windows to set himself up for life.

Lack isn't the bulletproof option some are portraying him as. He looks like he should be a good starter, but there have been many like him that have come in and had a good season or 2, then go on to be nothing special.

Then there's Markstrom. Can't say I would be surprised at all if he's Lack's equal 2 years from now, or even better. Could come with a significantly lower cap hit too.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

If you trade Lack this year, IMHO, you're selling low on Lack.

I don't agree with this. So I can't really agree on any of the other points.

Lack is coming off a good year and makes very little salary. His value could be at an all time high today. If he gets a healthy extension and settles into a James Reimer type goalie, his value could be significantly lower, or non existent.

The mistake people make is making definitive statements about what a shoe-in Lack is to be a good starter going forward. History has shown it's a highly volatile position.

 

[I in the Eye]

I don't agree with this. So I can't really agree on any of the other points.

Lack is coming off a good year and makes very little salary. His value could be at an all time high today. If he gets a healthy extension and settles into a James Reimer type goalie, his value could be significantly lower, or non existent.

The mistake people make is making definitive statements about what a shoe-in Lack is to be a good starter going forward. History has shown it's a highly volatile position.

Yeah, this is your bet. I strongly disagree. I don't know what else to say We've made our points well known to each other.

Cheers.

You could tell me what would need to happen for Lack to be worth a 1st next year, instead of a 2nd this year. That would be interesting to hear your take on what would make Lack a 1st round talent goaltender.

 

[arttk]

If the Canucks deal Miller, and Lack is a 28 year old starting goalie in Vancouver, his agent is looking for $5mil+ if Eddie is having a decent season.

Starting goalies are making good money in today's NHL. Lack will want that too, and at his age, he knows he gets 1 or 2 windows to set himself up for life.

Lack isn't the bulletproof option some are portraying him as. He looks like he should be a good starter, but there have been many like him that have come in and had a good season or 2, then go on to be nothing special.

Then there's Markstrom. Can't say I would be surprised at all if he's Lack's equal 2 years from now, or even better. Could come with a significantly lower cap hit too.

No goalie with that kind of stats will get that kind of contract even as a UFA. Hiller had better stats than that and the best he could do was a 4.5x2.
If he posts that kind of stats he is basically at Scrivens level almost and will be grasping for a NHL starter job. GM are strangely stingy for goalies. Even if Benning decide to go full ******, I don't see him giving that kind of contract because there is literally zero comparables.

 

[a Fool]

If your group is right, then kudos for your group. Well deserved. You bet on the right horse, at the right time, not only against the grain, but against the universe's probabilities. You would be a part of a select group that is perhaps seeing this on a quantum level, where sometimes the square peg fits nicely and easily into a round hole. It's possible I'm wrong about Benning, and about this goaltending situation. I'm looking at it from a certain vantage point, and a certain pair of eyes. Perhaps Benning is a particle physicist, and the Canucks are his hadron collider... in a space where wacky things work, and reality as we know it breaks down. Sym Jim.

Just choked on my beer. Please never stop posting.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

You could tell me what would need to happen for Lack to be worth a 1st next year, instead of a 2nd this year. That would be interesting to hear your take on what would make Lack a 1st round talent goaltender.

How are you going to get a 1st Rd pick for a guy you just locked up to a big contract and gave a NTC to?

For him to be a 1st Rd talent, he needs to string together multiple outstanding seasons. Something he obviously hasn't done. Whether he ever does remains to be seen.

His low cap hit is one of the things that drives his 'value' right now. That window will be closing very soon - and one of the obvious reasons why his value could peak at the draft.

 

[arsmaster*]

Smart move is extending Lack this summer if he were in your plans, the Schneider 3 year 12m.

Management doesn't want him though, I'll agree with all who've stated that. They went to a goalie in an elimination game who's still not healthy nearly 2 months later.

 

[arttk]

Smart move is extending Lack this summer if he were in your plans, the Schneider 3 year 12m.

Management doesn't want him though, I'll agree with all who've stated that. They went to a goalie in an elimination game who's still not healthy nearly 2 months later.

Our GM's ego is scary, it's like the word mistake does not exist in his dictionary.

 

[me2]

Who said anything about Lack failing? A .914SV% isn't failing. But if Miller is dealt and Lack has that type of season, his agent is going to be looking for starter money - and that number they seek will likely start with a 5.

What does Lack get from Benning? Remember he's the worst negotiator in the NHL... Is it $5.75mil X 5 years? Let's not pretend there is no risk here with Lack. If he's James Reimer, it could sting locking him up to a big contract. Tough to say if he's Reimer or Rinne, or somewhere in between.

If Lack puts up .914 he would be lucky to get $4m x 3. More than likely 2-3 year deal at $3m.

 

[I in the Eye]

How are you going to get a 1st Rd pick for a guy you just locked up to a big contract and gave a NTC to?

For him to be a 1st Rd talent, he needs to string together multiple outstanding seasons. Something he obviously hasn't done. Whether he ever does remains to be seen.

His low cap hit is one of the things that drives his 'value' right now. That window will be closing very soon - and one of the obvious reasons why his value could peak at the draft.

That's what I'm asking... What contract would he need? What exactly would need to happen for Lack to be worth a 1st next year in your eyes?

$3.5m - 4m, 3 years?... signed this offseason? No NTC? What kind of stats? What kind of role on the team? What needs to happen for Lack to return a 1st rounder next year (say around the 15th)? How far away is he from this right now? To me, he's almost there, as is, with UFA coming up after next season, and he might be touching the 25-30 pick range already. Not the time to sell low.

To me, he just needs to not sign a silly contract... and I don't get the impression we've got ROR on our hands. And he's working on his puck tracking / head movements. He should be better next year than this year. He knows what his weaknesses are, and he's looking to get better. He has goaltending coaches who have a proven track record. Lack is the guy you place the bet on.

 

[thepoeticgoblin]

The organization made it clear who their guy was when they rushed Miller back from injury. Now they are in a pickle because they have two starters and an AHL MVP but only two spots to give. One of the starters was this management's first marquee signing and is on a high cap hit for 2 more years. One is a youngish NHL-starter whose play carried the Nucks to the playoffs and is on a cheap contract. The 3rd one has done just about everything he can to earn a shot as an NHL-backup 2015/16.

Now management is thinking that trading the youngish starter is the most convenient option. After all, it's only a backup job that's available, not the starters' job and there is little interest in goalie #1 and #3...

 

[Samzilla]

That's the frustrating part... Lack in two seasons is currently a better goalie than Miller at the moment and has shown dedication and great work ethic to improve himself. Why trade away the cheaper young player instead of trying to shop Miller to a team while taking some of his salary.

I'd rather see Benning admit he made a mistake and act against it than stubbornly stick with his bad decisions.

Maybe Markstrom can come in and be that goalie many thought he'd become in Florida.

The Canucks desperately need more youth in this lineup, not sticking with the older players...

I would too but when has he ever? He just doubles down on his mistakes. Double Down Benning will be what everyone calls him by the time he's fired.

 

[a Fool]

Honestly I think it's beyond an inability to admit a mistake; Benning doesn't believe he makes mistakes at all. Reminds me of a scrap-book of poor drawings I made as a kid. I thought they were great. Page after page of masterpieces. In reality nobody outside of my mother would probably praise the drawings. The problem is Benning's scrap book is open for all to see and not stowed away in a closet. This is why after 60+ regular season games he can open that book to the Sbisa page and think to himself, "I really like this. I should sign him," where in objective reality it's a god awful drawing by any real metric. I don't think it's ego, I think it's fantasy land. He's not doubling down out of pride or optics, but rather because he truly believes these are good moves. He's not interested in the Picasso's of Tampa Bay or Chicago, he's interested in expanding and admiring his scrap book that he lovingly put together.

 

[Chubros]

Smart move is extending Lack this summer if he were in your plans, the Schneider 3 year 12m.

If the Canucks deal Miller, and Lack is a 28 year old starting goalie in Vancouver, his agent is looking for $5mil+ if Eddie is having a decent season.

Starting goalies are making good money in today's NHL. Lack will want that too, and at his age, he knows he gets 1 or 2 windows to set himself up for life.
...

If the team wants to re-sign Lack and have him be the goalie for the long term, having Miller around probably helps the team get Lack agree to a deal that is favourable to the team. There is a lot of uncertainty for a not quite established starter going to free agency. If Lack's and Miller's contracts were co-terminus, then Lack would have a lot more negotiating power knowing he was plan A and there being no plan B. The Schneider deal shows us that - and Schneider was without argument more established (and better) than Lack.

I expect the team thought this through when Miller was signed for a 3 year term, staggering the two goalies' contracts.

Management doesn't want him though, I'll agree with all who've stated that. They went to a goalie in an elimination game who's still not healthy nearly 2 months later.

The organization made it clear who their guy was when they rushed Miller back from injury. ...

That's reading way too much into it. The decision to start Miller in that game is not indicative of management's preference. 1) Starting goalies are a coach's decision. 2) the team was in desperation mode and really had nothing to lose by changing up the starter in the last game.

 

[Huggy]

Markstromis better than eddie lack. He has that awesome goal tending coach in utica and all signs point to him becoming a lot better than lack can ever be.

I donno what people see in eddie lack. When has he played a chicago or an anaheim in a playoff series. And yet ur ready to trade away markstrom for nothing.

Yea no thanks i deal lack to buffalo for the 32nd and pressure edm to do it for the 16th just as a final screw you before they get really good

 

[God]

Markstromis better than eddie lack. He has that awesome goal tending coach in utica and all signs point to him becoming a lot better than lack can ever be.

I donno what people see in eddie lack. When has he played a chicago or an anaheim in a playoff series. And yet ur ready to trade away markstrom for nothing.

Yea no thanks i deal lack to buffalo for the 32nd and pressure edm to do it for the 16th just as a final screw you before they get really good

you are my favourite poster

 

[me2]

Markstromis better than eddie lack. He has that awesome goal tending coach in utica and all signs point to him becoming a lot better than lack can ever be.

I donno what people see in eddie lack. When has he played a chicago or an anaheim in a playoff series. And yet ur ready to trade away markstrom for nothing.

Yea no thanks i deal lack to buffalo for the 32nd and pressure edm to do it for the 16th just as a final screw you before they get really good

Markstrom + Lack. Ditch the $6m backup up

 

[carolinacanuck]

That's the frustrating part... Lack in two seasons is currently a better goalie than Miller at the moment and has shown dedication and great work ethic to improve himself. Why trade away the cheaper young player instead of trying to shop Miller to a team while taking some of his salary.

I'd rather see Benning admit he made a mistake and act against it than stubbornly stick with his bad decisions.

Maybe Markstrom can come in and be that goalie many thought he'd become in Florida.

The Canucks desperately need more youth in this lineup, not sticking with the older players...

i can't speak for anyone else who's advocating trading lack...but the reason i'm arguing for trading eddie is because i don't think miller is going anywhere based on his contract and NTC.

would i like to see miller gone? yes, absolutely. i just don't think his contract is tradeable unless salary is retained.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Markstrom + Lack. Ditch the $6m backup up

Not going to happen me2. The backup was the starter as soon as pen was put to paper. Lack is a goner.

i can't speak for anyone else who's advocating trading lack...but the reason i'm arguing for trading eddie is because i don't think miller is going anywhere based on his contract and NTC.

would i like to see miller gone? yes, absolutely. i just don't think his contract is tradeable unless salary is retained.

Exactly, Miller isn't going anywhere... even if Benning wanted to trade him. Who would want him? Further, he has an NTC. The market for him is nothing.

 

[arsmaster*]

Honestly I think it's beyond an inability to admit a mistake; Benning doesn't believe he makes mistakes at all. Reminds me of a scrap-book of poor drawings I made as a kid. I thought they were great. Page after page of masterpieces. In reality nobody outside of my mother would probably praise the drawings. The problem is Benning's scrap book is open for all to see and not stowed away in a closet. This is why after 60+ regular season games he can open that book to the Sbisa page and think to himself, "I really like this. I should sign him," where in objective reality it's a god awful drawing by any real metric. I don't think it's ego, I think it's fantasy land. He's not doubling down out of pride or optics, but rather because he truly believes these are good moves. He's not interested in the Picasso's of Tampa Bay or Chicago, he's interested in expanding and admiring his scrap book that he lovingly put together.

How I see it as well. Doesn't strike me as ego either, just likes what he sees.