Series Talk: ECQF: New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals (NYR Lead 3-0)

[Uncle Scrooge]

I put together a statline for a hypothetical team if everything was the 16th best in the league. So basically median numbers across the board, and sort of a template for what it took to be a playoff team numbers-wise this year. Most of them are basic, but there's a little bit analytical numbers as well.

Comparing it to the Caps, I find it hilarious how they are more or less below in every category except the power play, which is at that level. Basically, this "16th best in everything"-team would statistically be a better team over 82 games.

It's no secret but by the numbers, the Caps really shouldn't be playing playoff hockey. I don't care how many bounces they get or how many saves Lindgren makes, it would be embarrassing for the Rangers to lose this series.

Hopefully it'll be entertaining at least.

 

[Kudelski37]

Lindgren is 2-1 with 4 goals against in 3 games against the Rangers this season. I think this will be a close series.

 

[I am Canadian]

If the Rangers lose this series it’s a bigger upset than Boston - Florida last season.

I don't think that's true. The Panthers weren't really a "great" team at that point yet. We didn't have the 20/20 hindsight of knowing they were good enough for a cup run.

 

[Divine]

I don't think that's true. The Panthers weren't really a "great" team at that point yet. We didn't have the 20/20 hindsight of knowing they were good enough for a cup run.

They won the President's Trophy the year before. They weren't a 'great' team last year, but they literally had the most points in the league the year before.

The Bruins were -350 favourites last season
The Rangers are -410 favourites this season

So the odds are in favour of this being the bigger upset if Washington wins also:

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[John Mandalorian]

Respect the Rangers. Respect the Capitals effort to make it. But ESPN cares more about this series than the other 90% of the country.

But that’s how ESPN is.

 

[Baby Punisher]

Respect the Rangers. Respect the Capitals effort to make it. But ESPN cares more about this series than the other 90% of the country.

But that’s how ESPN is.

ESPN is doing ESPN.
Unless you're a hardcore puck nut these regional matches do nothing for you.

 

[TheSmokingMan]

I put together a statline for a hypothetical team if everything was the 16th best in the league. So basically median numbers across the board, and sort of a template for what it took to be a playoff team numbers-wise this year. Most of them are basic, but there's a little bit analytical numbers as well.

Comparing it to the Caps, I find it hilarious how they are more or less below in every category except the power play, which is at that level. Basically, this "16th best in everything"-team would statistically be a better team over 82 games.

It's no secret but by the numbers, the Caps really shouldn't be playing playoff hockey. I don't care how many bounces they get or how many saves Lindgren makes, it would be embarrassing for the Rangers to lose this series.

Hopefully it'll be entertaining at least.

So what you're saying is that numbers have no way of explaining Washington's presence in the playoffs. Many teams who got beat by the Caps this year said the exact same thing afterwards. They were better than the Caps in every statistical category and still lost the game.

Perhaps, there's something important that happens in sports that can't be quantified by statistics. They have their place and offer some explanatory power, but put too much confidence in them at your own peril.

 

[FoxysExpensiveNYDigs]

I don’t care about who wins, Washington is my pick. Don’t believe in the Rangers and their negative 5v5 differential. Im sure they will get their normal favorable calls, they get near as many.

Can we at least let the playoffs start before complaining about the refs? Isles in 7.

 

[Peltz]

If the Rangers lose this series it’s a bigger upset than Boston - Florida last season.

Unquestionably. It would be time to tear down the team.

 

[Peltz]

So what you're saying is that numbers have no way of explaining Washington's presence in the playoffs. Many teams who got beat by the Caps this year said the exact same thing afterwards. They were better than the Caps in every statistical category and still lost the game.

Perhaps, there's something important that happens in sports that can't be quantified by statistics. They have their place and offer some explanatory power, but put too much confidence in them at your own peril.

It's just goaltending dude.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

So what you're saying is that numbers have no way of explaining Washington's presence in the playoffs. Many teams who got beat by the Caps this year said the exact same thing afterwards. They were better than the Caps in every statistical category and still lost the game.

Perhaps, there's something important that happens in sports that can't be quantified by statistics. They have their place and offer some explanatory power, but put too much confidence in them at your own peril.

Well yeah, obviously it goes without saying that stats are just stats.

It’s more about how crazy this anomaly is. There’s a reason why we don’t see this every year, or even every decade.

 

[TheDizee]

caps in 7

 

[TheSmokingMan]

It's just goaltending dude.

Over simplification, dude. There are teams that had good goaltenders that didn't make it. Goaltending is only part of it.

 

[Harry Waters]

Of course the Rangers are heavy favourites, but many predictions in this thread make me seriously question if people follow (playoff)hockey regularly.

"No chance the Capitals win more than one game."

"This isn't even competitive."

Yes, the Rangers might sweep the Caps. But if you have paid attention to how playoff series play out, so much can happen. Every team reaching the playoffs has a chance, we are talking about an NHL team which won 40 out of 82 games. Two of them against the Rangers, by the way.

Being a hockey fan for a long time, there have been so many upsets, and just in the last few years in the few leagues I follow there have been multiple upsets or even sweeps of heavy favourites. Just look at the swedish hockey league this year, where the 9th seed won the play-ins and swept the no. 1 and 2 seeds back-to-back. And this is one of the best leagues in the world, not some 7th tier bush league.

Let the Caps win one of the first two games and suddenly there will be many things in play which go beyond the talent level of these two clubs.

So you all do yourselves a favour and stop making these "I know exactly how it will play out"-comments, hockey will get you back for that. Just take a look at last year's predictions of the Bruins-Panthers series. Already people are saying this series would be an even bigger upset. Yeah, I remember the predictions last year. Now it's all forgotten because many people looked stupid.

 

[Hunter368]

Rangers, enough said

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I don't think that's true. The Panthers weren't really a "great" team at that point yet. We didn't have the 20/20 hindsight of knowing they were good enough for a cup run.

2023-2024 Caps might be the worst team to make the playoffs in the salary cap era and that's someone who'd be fine if they upset NYR. Only way they beat NYR is if Lindgren pulls a 2012 Quick but that LAK team was on fire after the deadline/they acquired Carter.

 

[vippe]

Still buzzing the Caps made it to the post season.

Clearly the Rangers as a better team and with a better season behind are huge favorites but historically in the Ovechkin era this has always been a close series so if Chucky performs and the Caps can play a tight game, hopefully they can make a good series out of it.

Either 4-0 Rangers or 4-3 for either team ;P

 

[EroCaps]

The Caps are 100% free balling here. I would not be surprised if they took a couple games.

New season.

 

[NoelVilla]

Will be surprised if Washington win a game.

 

[Nsjohnson]

Caps got nothing to lose. The entire room knows they are the worst team in the PO's but that means it's Caps vs the world.

I want the Caps to win because of Ovechkin and allllllllllll the haters that still exist. The 2007 era haters and the 2020's era haters. Let's f****** GO.

 

[Gardner McKay]

The Caps are 100% free balling here. I would not be surprised if they took a couple games.

New season.

This does not mean what you think it means.

It would be concerning to all if they were free balling.

You mean free rolling.

 

[HolyHagelin]

/tompettyvoice

And I’m freeeeeeee
Free ballin’!

 

[cc]

I flip flopped between a Rangers sweep or Rags in 5. I settled on 5
cheering for underdog Caps

 

[Tawnos]

I don't think that's true. The Panthers weren't really a "great" team at that point yet. We didn't have the 20/20 hindsight of knowing they were good enough for a cup run.

The Panthers underachieved hard in the first part of the last season and were on fire towards the end. They’d won the President’s Trophy the year before. What happened in the playoffs was mostly them meeting preseason expectations. Was it a surprise to see them beat the Bruins? Sure, but the degree of upset wasn’t as big as you’d expect in that situation.

Those same preseason expectations never existed for the Caps and the Rangers losing to them would be a bigger upset IMO. While the Rangers didn’t have as good of a regular season as last year’s Bruins, the Caps didn’t underachieve to end up as the 8 seed. They’re largely what they were expected to be and only made the playoffs because no other team in the same general group in the East stepped up and a couple of them (Flyers, Red Wings) actively imploded down the stretch.

We’re talking about a team that was 7 points out of a playoff spot at the all star break and only had to go 18-13-4 (0.571) to jump past 4 teams and get in. They were still 5 points out at the trade deadline and only had to go 11-8-2 (0.571) to get in. They didn’t get hot for any extended period (longer than 10 games). They won some key games and no one else in their general grouping really got going.

None of this is to say that an upset can’t happen. It definitely can. I’m just saying that the Caps are a very different situation than last year’s Panthers, who underachieved and then went 18-10-2 (0.633) after the all star break and 12-5-2 (0.684) after the deadline to get in.

 

[EroCaps]

This does not mean what you think it means.

It would be concerning to all if they were free balling.

You mean free rolling.

I say what I mean and mean what I say sir