They might make a move before that. We shall see but you can never have enough quality defenseman. The good news is Johnson playing top 4 minutes and doingnwell only helps his value. I really don’t think he would be hard to trade no matter what people say on these boards. Several teams had interest in Johnson and from all accounts the Pens had not been the highest bidder. Johnson-Pettersson playing this well together not only helps his value but I would argue helps the team because they have been a very productive tandem.
Early Impressions: Marcus Pettersson
- Thread starter Gurglesons
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They might make a move before that. We shall see but you can never have enough quality defenseman. The good news is Johnson playing top 4 minutes and doingnwell only helps his value. I really don’t think he would be hard to trade no matter what people say on these boards. Several teams had interest in Johnson and from all accounts the Pens had not been the highest bidder. Johnson-Pettersson playing this well together not only helps his value but I would argue helps the team because they have been a very productive tandem.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
I thought you had compared him to Cole recently and said that he was playing recently on par with what Cole was for the Penguins (both in ability and style), which I took as giving Johnson credit. If that wasn't meant as credit towards JJ, I misread that
I don’t guarantee that at all. I feel much more comfortable with the known than a guess work concoction. I already know Maatta-Schultz has played very well as a 2nd pairing. I also know that Johnson-Pettersson has been a great pairing and getting better by the week. Not only has Johnson been a +10 with 4 points in the 19 games with Pettersson but he has done that while playing as high as top 2 minutes and consistently 3-4 minutes. Pettersson has been great since he arrived but another level past couple weeks with +10 and 6 points in 5 games.
Glad you are not the coach or GM because you would have to be a fool to make those changes. Pettersson playing with Schultz is not only unknown but also I am not even sure that is a good match. I like how Johnson is the stay at home guy and that Pettersson is starting to get comfortable joining the rush. Johnson certainly is not hurting Pettersson’s play. You can’t do better than what he has done lately.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
To be honest, I'm not sure why there is some hesitation to run with Maatta-Schultz as the 2nd pair. Historically, that pair has been good and I think Maatta would benefit greatly from playing with a skilled puck mover like Schultz. I do think Pettersson is the long-term 2nd pair LD based on JR's comments, but I think it's hard to justify putting together anything but Maatta-Schultz for your 2nd pair. It keeps your 2 pairs that are working really well together and you go back to a pair that has worked for you in the past.
With that being said, I'd be exploring moving Maatta in the off-season for sure. Maatta-Schultz isn't going to be a long term pair (and their numbers aren't as good as I thought they were) and Maatta-Johnson sounds downright terrifying to me. I don't like Maatta-Riikola that much, either.
With that being said, I'd be exploring moving Maatta in the off-season for sure. Maatta-Schultz isn't going to be a long term pair (and their numbers aren't as good as I thought they were) and Maatta-Johnson sounds downright terrifying to me. I don't like Maatta-Riikola that much, either.
I stopped reading Wilson long ago. I used to read him daily but his annoyance about Johnson became too obnoxious. Hooks Orpik is starting to get the same way. Still read Pensburgh daily but I can see it getting to the point of Hockeybuzz which I stopped reading on a daily basis.
When you look at all the metrics that you listed on that other post you can see that Johnson-Pettersson have been great together. So you got the eye test that says they are doing great. The stats +10 Johnson 19 games, Petterson playing great and on another level last 5 games. But somehow Johnson is dragging Pettersson down. I wish all our defenseman could be dragged down to that level (6 points and +10 in last 5 games). Please drag down more of our defenseman. Even Orr would be happy with a 5 game stretch like that and believe me Pettersson is now Orr. Why cant people just admit they are great together? It is like saying water is not wet.
Someone should look at the Maatta-Schultz numbers from 2016 to present because it’s my recollection that they had a reasonable stint at looking good and then they were paired again and it was dog****....kinda like Phil and G....if Schultz is skating really well or if Maatta is being really aggressive offensively (and that means playing confident) then the pair works well...when they try to pinch too much or both are trying to play conservatively in the D zone at the same time, then it doesn’t work...
Empoleon8771
Registered User
I did, their CF% numbers are around 50% (a little below the team, but not too bad), their GF% numbers are fantastic and their HDCF and SCF numbers are noticeably below the team average (48% SCF and 49% HDCF%). They're not a bad pair, but the results for the pair haven't been that good. This is for both the regular season and playoffs, they have similar numbers in each.
Gurglesons
Registered User
I thought you had compared him to Cole recently and said that he was playing recently on par with what Cole was for the Penguins (both in ability and style), which I took as giving Johnson credit. If that wasn't meant as credit towards JJ, I misread that
He’s Cole without the offensive ability, I could see him being a solid #6-7 in the playoffs depending on the series.
Tom Hanks
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- Nov 10, 2017
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My guess is, and I haven’t looked at the numbers, that Maatta’s best pairing analytically over the last three years has been with Letang but he’s probably played more with others, like Schultz
I didn’t see anyone that had a good argument against this. The people that wanted to use analytics to say Johnson-Pettersson has somehow not been a good pairing despite the eye test and the actual numbers. As long as the pairing is putting up good numbers I think you would have to be a fool to separate them. When you add to the fact that the pairing has some good analytic measures in many areas this shouldn’t be a topic of conversation.
Bottom line is Johnson has been getting the 3rd most minutes in many games and has consistently been getting top 4 and even 2nd most minutes twice. So Johnson has been getting top 4 minutes or better during these 19 games paired with Pettersson and during that time Johnson has 4 points and a +10. Top 4 minutes and plus 10 and playing a defensive defenseman game that has allowed his partner to start joining the play.
At first Sullivan just wanted that pairing focus on defense but now you see Pettersson has the green light to use his offensive part of his game. Pettersson has 6 points and +10 in last 5 games. In no way someone could say he is being held back. I would argue he feels very comfortable with his partner and knows he will be back if he wants to join the rush. I don’t think Schultz would provide that stability. Love Schultz but he needs to be that guy. I want Dumoulin, Maatta, and Johnson to provide the security for Letang, Schultz, and Pettersson to provide offense.
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I also believe Pettersson is the long term 2nd pairing LW. Honestly recently the Pettersson-Johnson pairing has been the 2nd pairing on many nights. I think Dumoulin-Letang will get all top matchups and the other 2 pairings will be playing low 2nd pairing minutes each with all of those 4 players in the 18 minute range. Maatta-Schultz will be the other pairing. If that does not work out then it gets interesting.
I would be up for keeping everyone this season for playoff depth but I would look and see what kind of forward was available for Maatta. I wouldn’t made Johnson going either but time will tell. The way Johnson is playing now he would be easily tradable. Like the depth this year but I would be fine with the left side of the defense having Dumoulin, Riikola, and Pettersson, Depends on what we could get for Maatta? If Oilers have another Hall for Larsson type deal ready I am all in. Defenseman bring back better trade value than people expect when it is a winger involved.
I think the Pens have all they need this season. The Pens have about as good as depth as a Cap team could have. Every position has legit superstars and good depth.
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Re Petterson/Johnson and the save percentage -
Yes that save percentage is unsustainably high and the results will look a sight different once things start reverting to the mean.
But lets look at the numbers. Its not quite as simple as "This is unsustainable and when its done they'll suck".
They've given up 42 HDCA, 57 MDCA, and a 120 LDCA. That's resulted in 5 goals. With average goaltending... that's what, 9? 10? I'm eyeballing here, but those 42 HDCA should have resulted in about 8 goals, the 120 LDCA should be about 1, the 57 MDCA half a goal...
They'd still be a + pairing with average goaltending.
Yes that save percentage is unsustainably high and the results will look a sight different once things start reverting to the mean.
But lets look at the numbers. Its not quite as simple as "This is unsustainable and when its done they'll suck".
They've given up 42 HDCA, 57 MDCA, and a 120 LDCA. That's resulted in 5 goals. With average goaltending... that's what, 9? 10? I'm eyeballing here, but those 42 HDCA should have resulted in about 8 goals, the 120 LDCA should be about 1, the 57 MDCA half a goal...
They'd still be a + pairing with average goaltending.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
I looked up the numbers on Corsica this morning. Based on expected goals against, they should be at about 9 or 10 goals against instead of 5. That would put them at +4 or +5 as a pair. Their expected on ice save% is .931 based on the chances they've allowed. So yeah, your guestimate is right.
What's more interesting is that the team as a whole has gotten an above average on ice save% over Pettersson's 19 games here. If you just take the team average save% and give it to the Pettersson-Johnson pair, they would have been on the ice for 6 or 7 goals against, which would result in them being +7 or +8 over 19 games.
Everyone's had above average on ice save %. Like, way above average save%. DeSmith and Murray - particularly Murray - have been ridiculously good. From 24/11 to the 5th of this month, we had the second best ES save percentage. I can pull the numbers for that period, broken down by chance numbers (and for PK and PP too) if people are interested.
And everyone's going to look worse when it comes back down to earth. Question is where earth is for us.
That said - the other part of Johnson/Petterson's save percentage - you play against bad players, they take less chances. And for the most part, they've been the pairing taking the easiest deployments. That helps.
But you can only beat what's in front of you and they've done that. Quite convincingly.
Gurglesons
Registered User
I’m one that doesn’t really get goaltending stats. Is this run by Murray similar to his numbers in his first two years?
I know in terms of GAA and SV he is in that ballpark.
Its not similar. This run by Murray, since he came back from injury, craps all over his numbers from his first two years from a giant and lofty height. Right now, his last 9 games come in at .953 with only 14 goals conceded. His Goals Saved Above Average is 13.09 - he's basically saving half of all the goals he should theoretically concede. Kingerski ran an article on this before the Anaheim game (great commentator's curse) - Penguins Matt Murray Isn’t Back–He’s Better Than Ever - Murray's previous best 8 game stretch was 15 goals. His previous best save average over a single month was .938, until he beat that in December with .959.
This is the best he's ever played. I suspect I'd have to look a long, long time to find a goaltender with a stretch this strong.
Gurglesons
Registered User
Probably Gibson. I know his Goals Saved Above Average was double that of Halak (2nd) earlier in the year.
I looked at Gibson's monthly splits and there may be one February where he did it if I dig deep into the numbers but otherwise I'm pretty sure no. At least in terms of save percentage. I wouldn't be surprised if GSAA was equal at some point given the ridiculous way Anaheim have played in front of him.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
This is an extreme exaggeration. He didn't have a good game, but he didn't have a brutal game.
Ryder71
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- Nov 24, 2017
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It was brutal, hopefully it doesn't become a pattern.
The Carter goal can directly be attributed to him and Kovalchuk undressed him as well. One bad giveaway and several times he got caught out of position. Yeah, not good at all.
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vodeni
Registered User
I am with you and particularly sensitive...as soon as they string two or three games together, local media starts writing these lauding articles that are nothing but jinxes par excellence...we got to do something about that to reverse that s... as soon as it happens
Ugene Magic
EVIL LAUGH
Actually...now that I'm rewatching this goal, Carter got his stick on it and not off Geno. The ref was right there on the wall and had a clear view. I don't know what Geno was doing though. He didn't exactly help just standing there with his stick a waist height and was more worried about getting hit then making sure Carter didn't get free with the puck. He didn't disrupt anything or try for the puck or lifting Carters stick.
Pettersson did his part, and all he had left was taking a penalty.
