Early Impressions: Marcus Pettersson

[Gurglesons]

It's passable because unlike other pairings, JJ-Pettersson has only been together during a stretch when both goalies have been playing out of their minds. I'm generally no fan of Ryan Wilson's takes, but he makes a good point here:



But YMMV. I'm not particularly interested in having a drawn-out conversation about it while Schultz is on the shelf because it's doing the job for now. I'll happily revisit it when Schultz is available.

https://www.tsn.ca/defencemen-and-their-impact-on-team-save-percentage-1.567469

 

[EightyOne]

. Johnson brings the physicality and size

.

So. Useless in the Pens system.

.and Pettersson brings the puck moving and defensive awareness to that pair.

.

Extremely useful in the Pens system.


...I'm also really picking nits.



By far best bottom pair in YEARS.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Want to know an actual way to adjust for an unsustainable save%, instead of just saying "if they'd get scored on more, they'd look worse"? Go look at stats that take into account quality of shots, because those stats exist. On Corsica's xGF% stats, Pettersson and Johnson still have a net positive expected GF% rate. Their expected +/- is like a +4 at ES instead of a +9. Their expected on ice save% based on the chances they've given up is a .931 save%, which is a completely reasonable number when you consider the Penguins as a team are at an ES on ice save% of .921 and that pair has been good at limiting high danger chances.

Wilson's comment there is saying "if that pair was getting crap ES goaltending, they wouldn't look as good". Which is about the quality of stuff that I expect to get out of Wilson.

By far best bottom pair in YEARS.

What's sad is that this is probably true even if you're saying it sarcastically. Last year was Hunwick-Oleksiak by the end, which was just lol-worthy. The year before was Maatta-Daley, which wasn't very good because Daley was a shell of his former self at that point and Maatta had a terrible 2016-2017 season. At that point, it is years.

 

[Hell Yeah!!!]

Who was Johnson paired with before Pets.

We talk about Pettersson picking up Johnson up, could his previous partner have also been a really bad fit for JJ.

I’m not in tune enough to know if JJ sucks but I find it hard to believe Pettersson is so good that he can make garbage into gold (I hope it’s true).

Hopefully as other has said JJ is adjusting and has found a partner that complements his game well. Would be best outcome.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

No, that really isn't a good point by Wilson. He's looking at 1 advanced stats and drawing a conclusion based on that stat alone. To make it worse, he's not even looking at it relative to the rest of the team.

Wilson is just another advanced stat stooge that hates Johnson, so I'm not surprised that he'd cling to anything he can find to say to take a shot at him. If your argument is "if they would be getting scored on more, they wouldn't be good", you don't have an actual argument against that pair. I posted the numbers that say that the pair has been absolutely excellent. You can call it "passable" all you want, but it's not based on anything whatsoever.

Their numbers together are the beneficiary of being together almost exclusively during a run where both goalies have been on fire. That is a stat that gives context for the entire team.

Water usually finds its level. I'll be a lot more impressed if their numbers hold once DeSmith and Murray cool off.

Either way, I'd like to see how Pettersson fits with Schultz. They seem like natural complements.

https://www.tsn.ca/defencemen-and-their-impact-on-team-save-percentage-1.567469

Yep. I don't think I have to go to the trouble of providing a link on small sample sizes with unsustainable key variables.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

No, it’s because JJ’s metrics are still bad and he’s draggimg Pettersson down well below 50% shot share despite MP. Everything points to that pairings success when it comes to preventing goals being partially luck driven.

But yea we all just don’t like JJ just because.

Is this Hooks Orpik or Ryan Wilson? I don’t see Johnson dragging Pettersson down. In fact the exact opposite. Johnson’s more simplified stay at home game has allowed Pettersson to flourish. Pettersson has added to his game now joining the offense and has been more productive than anything anyone could expect. Like I have posted Pettersson is not the second coming of Bobby Orr so when he has 6 points and a +10 in his last 5 games I don’t think he is being dragged down.

This pairing has been good for both players. Johnson simplified his game because he was getting paired with a new partner that was a rookie and getting used to a new team and style of play. This has been a big factor in why this pairing has worked because Johnson is playing the good stay at home style that had him being a very good defenseman in 2016-17 season. Like I said no person could of in their wildest dreams could of expected Pettersson to be doing this well so let’s just enjoy this. I hate to see this board when that pairing has an off game or 2.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Their numbers together are the beneficiary of being together almost exclusively during a run where both goalies have been on fire. That is a stat that gives context for the entire team.

Water usually finds its level. I'll be a lot more impressed if their numbers hold once DeSmith and Murray cool off.

Either way, I'd like to see how Pettersson fits with Schultz. They seem like natural complements.

But again, there are actual stats you can look at to adjust for unsustainable runs. Wilson's argument was basically "if they had bad ES goaltending, they wouldn't look at good". It's a crap argument and about on par with the rest of the crap that Wilson usually posts. Again, based on the actual chances/shots they've allowed, their expected on ice save% is a .931 at ES. Wilson's comment is a worthless comment by someone known to be an advanced stat jerker.

If they were getting an expected on ice save%, they'd be at like a +4 or +5 as a pair instead of a +9. But even then, as a team the Penguins have a .9422 save% over the sample size we're looking at. Adjusting based on the team save% puts them at like a +6 or +7. The pair is just really damn good right now, calling them "passable" argues completely against the stats.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

But again, there are actual stats you can look at to adjust for unsustainable runs. Wilson's argument was basically "if they had bad ES goaltending, they wouldn't look at good". It's a crap argument and about on par with the rest of the crap that Wilson usually posts. Again, based on the actual chances/shots they've allowed, their expected on ice save% is a .931 at ES. Wilson's comment is a worthless comment by someone known to be an advanced stat jerker.

If they were getting an expected on ice save%, they'd be at like a +4 or +5 as a pair instead of a +9. But even then, as a team the Penguins have a .9422 save% over the sample size we're looking at. Adjusting based on the team save% puts them at like a +6 or +7.

Sure, but that puts the pairing in perspective too. It's passable. That's not a critical term.

The way Pettersson's playing now, I think he could be a good complementary defenseman on the 2nd pairing beside Schultz, which has a good chance to be better than JJ-Pettersson. Don''t spin that out into me putting them on blast. That should be a pretty uncontroversial observation.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sure, but that puts the pairing in perspective too. It's passable. That's not a critical term.

The way Pettersson's playing now, I think he could be a good complementary defenseman on the 2nd pairing beside Schultz, which has a good chance to be better than JJ-Pettersson. Don''t spin that out into me putting them on blast. That should be a pretty uncontroversial observation.

I think you and I have a different definition of "passable", then. When I read "passable", I read something that isn't hurting you but you'd want to improve on at the first chance you get. That pair has been legitimately good. A "passable" bottom pair is something like Oleksiak-Ruhwedel, it's not a good pair but it's not downright horrendous.

Who was Johnson paired with before Pets.

We talk about Pettersson picking up Johnson up, could his previous partner have also been a really bad fit for JJ.

I’m not in tune enough to know if JJ sucks but I find it hard to believe Pettersson is so good that he can make garbage into gold (I hope it’s true).

Hopefully as other has said JJ is adjusting and has found a partner that complements his game well. Would be best outcome.

I think it was mostly Letang (who looked decent with Johnson) and Maatta (who looked horrid with Johnson). I think there is a lot of validity to the idea that Pettersson's strong play has made Johnson look solid, but at the same point, those people aren't pointing out that Maatta's horrid play made Johnson look terrible when they were together.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I think you and I have a different definition of "passable", then. When I read "passable", I read something that isn't hurting you but you'd want to improve on at the first chance you get. That pair has been legitimately good. A "passable" bottom pair is something like Oleksiak-Ruhwedel, it's not a good pair but it's not downright horrendous.

It might be semantics. The pairing's been fine, but I think Pettersson could be put to better use once Schultz returns. That's all.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Their numbers together are the beneficiary of being together almost exclusively during a run where both goalies have been on fire. That is a stat that gives context for the entire team.

Water usually finds its level. I'll be a lot more impressed if their numbers hold once DeSmith and Murray cool off.

Either way, I'd like to see how Pettersson fits with Schultz. They seem like natural complements.



Yep. I don't think I have to go to the trouble of providing a link on small sample sizes with unsustainable key variables.

Of course the goalies won’t consistently play at the level they have during that stretch and in fact 2 of the last 3 games they haven’t. But even in those 2 games Johnson and Pettersson have flourished. That pair has been so good during this stretch they would still be + players over that time even with average goaltending which I think we have much better goaltending than average. Murray is good, plain and simple.

Johnson has made a few mistakes over these 19 games but so does every defenseman and overall his game has been real solid. Nothing flashy but exactly what I wanted from him. Johnson has played as high as top 2 minutes over these 19 games and consistently top 3-4 minutes each night while being a plus 10 with 4 assists. If he can play that well with that many minutes then I think we are in good shape with Schultz coming back. I believe the Maatta-Schultz pairing will be back together and it is crazy to suggest splitting Johnson and Pettersson. I will be with you if they start playing poorly for a 10 game stretch. But the way both has played this is ridiculous.

Again Pettersson 6 points +10 in last 5 games but somehow is being held back? Didn’t realize Pettersson was Orr reincarnated.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It might be semantics. The pairing's been fine, but I think Pettersson could be put to better use once Schultz returns. That's all.

Yeah, so it seems like both of us wasted our time then

Long term, I do want Pettersson as the 2nd pair LD. I just don't see a point of breaking up a pair that's working now because you think Pettersson-Schultz will look good. As soon as the pair stops working, go right ahead, just not when the pair is working. I have serious concerns about whatever bottom pair the Penguins can throw together without Pettersson on it, I don't see a pair between Johnson, Maatta, Riikola, Ruhwedel and Oleksiak that I like (I think Riikola-Johnson is the closest, but I don't trust that pair defensively). I'd rather go into next year with Pettersson-Schultz as the 2nd pair and revamp the bottom pair, with ideally trying to find a Pettersson type of player to play with Johnson on the bottom pair.

 

[EightyOne]

It might be semantics. The pairing's been fine, but I think Pettersson could be put to better use once Schultz returns. That's all.

Say you do pets-schultz.....

Are you then putting Johnson-maatta back together?

Or scratching oleksiak and Johnson and putting riikola with maatta?

Because almost none of that is realistic.

Johnson maatta WAS a disaster.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Yeah, so it seems like both of us wasted our time then

Long term, I do want Pettersson as the 2nd pair LD. I just don't see a point of breaking up a pair that's working now because you think Pettersson-Schultz will look good. As soon as the pair stops working, go right ahead, just not when the pair is working. I have serious concerns about whatever bottom pair the Penguins can throw together without Pettersson on it, I don't see a pair between Johnson, Maatta, Riikola, Ruhwedel and Oleksiak that I like (I think Riikola-Johnson is the closest, but I don't trust that pair defensively). I'd rather go into next year with Pettersson-Schultz as the 2nd pair and revamp the bottom pair, with ideally trying to find a Pettersson type of player to play with Johnson on the bottom pair.

I hear there's this Riikola guy...

 

[Empoleon8771]

I hear there's this Riikola guy...

Yeah, I put something in parenthesis about that pair right before that sentence. I have concerns about that pair defensively, I don't think Riikola is as strong defensively as Pettersson. Now, if he gets stronger defensively, I'd be much more comfortable with that pair, but I'd have concerns about that pair before then. I'd almost rather run with Riikola-Schultz and keep Pettersson-Johnson together, just because I trust Schultz defensively more than Johnson.

 

[Tom Hanks]

It might be semantics. The pairing's been fine, but I think Pettersson could be put to better use once Schultz returns. That's all.

It’ll be Maatta-Schultz for sure when he comes back and with MP-JJ it will be a 2A, 2B situation until Schultz is fully ready. If MP-JJ maintain this form (or close to it) I can’t see them switching the pairs up unless somethings going wrong in the playoffs (or injury).

Better use in terms of the team might not be accurate if MP goes with Schultz. They tried Maatta-MJ in the preseason and looked good but didn’t when the real season started.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It’ll be Maatta-Schultz for sure when he comes back and with MP-JJ it will be a 2A, 2B situation until Schultz is fully ready. If MP-JJ maintain this form (or close to it) I can’t see them switching the pairs up unless somethings going wrong in the playoffs (or injury).

It'd be contingent on Schultz rounding into form pretty quickly. Anything but guaranteed, naturally.

I'm very skeptical of Maatta-Schultz.

Better use in terms of the team might not be accurate if MP goes with Schultz. They tried Maatta-MJ in the preseason and looked good but didn’t when the real season started.

Ideally one of JJ or Maatta would not be playing. Dream scenario, I'm sure.

 

[Tom Hanks]

It'd be contingent on Schultz rounding into form pretty quickly. Anything but guaranteed, naturally.

I'm very skeptical of Maatta-Schultz.



Ideally one of JJ or Maatta would not be playing. Dream scenario, I'm sure.

Maatta-Schultz were pretty awesome last playoffs.

Yeah Maatta and JJ are playing regularly unless they are traded or are playing really terrible in the playoffs.

 

[Andy99]

It'd be contingent on Schultz rounding into form pretty quickly. Anything but guaranteed, naturally.

I'm very skeptical of Maatta-Schultz.



Ideally one of JJ or Maatta would not be playing. Dream scenario, I'm sure.

I agree that Maatta-Schultz is not what I’d start Schultz out with coming back from injury...his wheels would have to be fully back before I’d do that...that’s why I think MP would be a perfect pairing for him...I know Sully won’t do it but that pair could be magic...alternatively put Maatta with Letang and move Dumo down with Schultz
My ideal would be JJ not playing and
Dumo-Letang
MP-Schultz
Maatta-Riikola

Otherwise
Maatta-Letang
Dumo-Schultz
MP-JJ

 

[Turin]

Jack Johnson has been a bad NHL defender with negative shot impacts since before Pettersson hit puberty. That Johnson isn’t killing the team right now doesn’t make him a net positive all of a sudden.

I’m not saying break that pairing up right now, but the numbers don’t lie and my eye test (for all you who love that) suggests Pettersson is better than his possession results and would benefit the team even more by playing with a better player.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

I mean, wishing for Petts - JJ to be broken up is silly.

Maatta - Schultz is coming back as soon as Schultz is back and honestly, that was our best pairing last year so I don’t mind it.

This is by far what I think Sullivan has planned. Sullivan has a nice luxury to have a 3rd pairing that has been able to play this well in a bigger spot. Johnson has had been as high as 2nd in minutes during this 19 game stretch and has consistently been logging 3rd or 4th in minutes and has been a +10 over that time. When Schultz gets some time to get his legs back under him the Maatta-Schultz pairing will be the 2nd pairing and this team will have a very strong and deep defense. It is nice to have players like Riikola and Oleksiak as 7-8 defenseman.

How many teams have that quality depth? I feel comfortable with 6 defenseman playing top 4 minutes if needed. I don’t think you split a pairing up that has produced this well and getting even better in the last 5 games. Again Pettersson 6 points +10 in 5 games and he is no Orr. Johnson is far from holding him back.

The only spot I am not sold on yet is Brassard but I still hold on the slight hope he can be what he has been his whole career which is a good 2nd line center and passable 1st line Center. I am willing to give it another month to see if Brassard and Kessel can bring back HBK production. Kessel looked great last night.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Jack Johnson has been a bad NHL defender with negative shot impacts since before Pettersson hit puberty. That Johnson isn’t killing the team right now doesn’t make him a net positive all of a sudden.

I’m not saying break that pairing up right now, but the numbers don’t lie and my eye test (for all you who love that) suggests Pettersson is better than his possession results and would benefit the team even more by playing with a better player.

The numbers is saying that pair is doing great. Stop lying and actually look at the numbers. The pair is excellent at limiting chances against and is a net positive in every advanced stat except for Fenwick. Just because you don't like Johnson doesn't mean that the pair isn't working great right now.

I mean, if even pixies is giving Johnson credit, you should really reevaluate your opinion of him. He has probably seen Johnson more than anyone here, so if he's even saying that he has been playing on par with about Cole recently, you need to reevaluate your bad take.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Jack Johnson has been a bad NHL defender with negative shot impacts since before Pettersson hit puberty. That Johnson isn’t killing the team right now doesn’t make him a net positive all of a sudden.

I’m not saying break that pairing up right now, but the numbers don’t lie and my eye test (for all you who love that) suggests Pettersson is better than his possession results and would benefit the team even more by playing with a better player.

If Johnson was as bad a defenseman as you and Brooks Orpik have been touting how did he get to play top pairing minutes for almost his whole career? Coaches are not in the job to try and lose. If those teams had better options they would of used them.

The truth is Johnson was put in a spot he wasn’t best suited for and that was as his team’s top minute defenseman. Johnson playing 24-25 minutes a game playing against the best lines and also trying to provide offense made those metrics look bad. Any player playing out of his ability levels would look the same just like Schultz did in Edmonton when everyone said he was literally the worst defenseman in hockey. I have no doubt Johnson could of done much better if he played for a good team all those years as it’s second pairing defenseman behind a pairing such as Dumoulin-Letang now.

Johnson played great in the second pairing spot with the Bluejackets in 2016-17. Last year he had many issues outside of hockey that I believe affected his play. Johnson came to the Pens with a fresh start and tried to do too much and looked terrible. He has simplified his game and has been real solid while playing top 3 minutes many nights. Johnson has not drug down Pettersson in the slightest. Just like when a young Orpik did not hurt his line mate despite playing a simple defensive defenseman game. The proof is in his partners play. I liked Pettersson’s play before these past 5 games but now it is another level.

Sorry, I don’t care what some metrics say. The Pettersson-Johnson pairing passes the eye test and has been very productive.

19 games 4 points +10 for Johnson
19 games 7 points +13 for Pettersson

Johnson is doing this despite playing his off side. Those numbers are good no matter how the goalies are playing and have been on an other worldly level lately for Pettersson with those eye popping 6 points and +10 in 5 games! People want to split that up? Maybe someday if they start playing poorly but for now enjoy the ride everyone. I think Pixie gets it.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Read these stats then. The pair has been absolutely fantastic:

Pettersson-Johnson as a pair:

1. Has a positive CF%Rel
2. Has a significantly positive HDCF%Rel
3. Has a positive SCF%Rel
4. Has a significantly positive GF%Rel
5. Has a significantly positive HDCA/60Rel and SCA/60Rel (so just looking at defensive stats)

But yeah, Johnson is totally dragging Pettersson down! The only thing that Solzhenitsyn posted that was correct was that the pair was at a sub-50% CF%, which is still better than the team average. The pair is excellent defensive based on the eye test and their SCA and HDCA numbers, their good goals against totals are not "based on luck".

Thanks for the greet analysis. So they have been very effective both with the eye test and actual production. They have been strong in almost all metrics but somehow they need split up? Scary the thought process on these boards and others.

Again Pettersson is no Bobby Orr and we would take these stats for him 5 games 6 points +10. Johnson is really holding Pettersson back, ha ha. Johnson playing on his off side playing top 3 minutes many nights has been a +10 with 4 points in those 19 games with Pettersson but we need to split that up? Ok

Empoleon gets it, thanks for taking the time to bring in the other metrics.

 

[Gurglesons]

The numbers is saying that pair is doing great. Stop lying and actually look at the numbers. The pair is excellent at limiting chances against and is a net positive in every advanced stat except for Fenwick. Just because you don't like Johnson doesn't mean that the pair isn't working great right now.

I mean, if even pixies is giving Johnson credit, you should really reevaluate your opinion of him. He has probably seen Johnson more than anyone here, so if he's even saying that he has been playing on par with about Cole recently, you need to reevaluate your bad take.

Woah. I’m not giving him credit. It is just the inevitability of the contract and complaining about it is pointless.

I guarantee we would be a better team if we ran our D as..

Dumo - Letang
Pettersson - Schultz
Maatta - Riikola