Expansion draft discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,173
20,795
People need to realize that Seatle can keep their money to build their team via trades and UFA's. They don't have to take bad contracts in the expansion draft.

With the flat cap, teams desperate to unload money in the next offseason will help them tremendously (see: Schmidt trade) and they can also bank on UFA's that don't receive good offers because all the other teams don't have cap space.

From a roster building POV, Seattle is extremely lucky to enter the league in these conditions.
As a top 4 Dman Graves isn't overpaid. In fact if he simply continues his play from last years regular season his contract is solid in a top 4 role.

The issue for us now is that he's going to be asked to play a 3rd pairing role while being paid slightly above that level. An issue for us, but for Seattle that might actually be a solid contract to take on.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Sponsor
Feb 24, 2012
62,708
46,699
I'm sure teams have the answer by now, but Timmins (and Merzlikins who Seattle will really push to have exposed) have questions on their start date professionally. Neither played games under professional contracts that started their waiver date. We don't have a direct correlation and it isn't specifically spelled out in the CBA nor agreements for expansion. The closest comparison is Olofsson who busted up his knee in his first game under his 20 year old year contract (his previous AHL games were under his 19 year old seasons as an ATO, so don't count). Same as Timmins but with an actual game played. Olofsson didn't complete any minimum game requirement due to that injury, but was still eligible for selection in the Vegas expansion draft. Timmins is basically the same situation as Olofsson with no games played vs one.
 

Northern Avs Fan

Registered User
May 27, 2019
21,970
29,648
I was looking into it and I don’t believe teams have to protect first, or second year players. So, Timmins should be off limits in the expansion draft.
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,173
20,795
I was looking into it and I don’t believe teams have to protect first, or second year players. So, Timmins should be off limits in the expansion draft.
The question is whether Timmins is actually still considered a 2nd year player though. If his first season in the AHL - which he missed the entirety of due to a concussion - counts as a professional season, then he's actually a 3rd year pro and would be eligible for the ExD. But if the NHL decides that that season he missed doesn't count as a professional season then he won't be exempt. It seems harsh to have an entirely missed season with zero actual games count as a professional season, but that could be what happens.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Northern Avs Fan

Northern Avs Fan

Registered User
May 27, 2019
21,970
29,648
The question is whether Timmins is actually still considered a 2nd year player though. If his first season in the AHL - which he missed the entirety of due to a concussion - counts as a professional season, then he's actually a 3rd year pro and would be eligible for the ExD. But if the NHL decides that that season he missed doesn't count as a professional season then he won't be exempt. It seems harsh to have an entirely missed season with zero actual games count as a professional season, but that could be what happens.

Yeah, that would be kind of ridiculous for them to count the season where he never actually played a game. You never know though, I imagine someone from the NHL will rule over those cases. It sounds like it could go either way.

It would be a nice little loop hole for Seattle if they can snag him if he has a strong rookie season.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Sponsor
Feb 24, 2012
62,708
46,699
The question is whether Timmins is actually still considered a 2nd year player though. If his first season in the AHL - which he missed the entirety of due to a concussion - counts as a professional season, then he's actually a 3rd year pro and would be eligible for the ExD. But if the NHL decides that that season he missed doesn't count as a professional season then he won't be exempt. It seems harsh to have an entirely missed season with zero actual games count as a professional season, but that could be what happens.

Yup the crux of the issue... Olofsson went down in the 2nd (?) period of the first game of the season in his first year. He played less than 15 minutes and it counted as a season for Minny. Now he stepped on the ice and played, if that this the distinction, then Timmins will be exempt.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Richard88

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,173
20,795
Yup the crux of the issue... Olofsson went down in the 2nd (?) period of the first game of the season in his first year. He played less than 15 minutes and it counted as a season for Minny. Now he stepped on the ice and played, if that this the distinction, then Timmins will be exempt.
Completely agree. It would be extremely strange if the NHL counted a professional season despite the guy literally never being on the ice for a game.
 

McMetal

Writer of Wrongs
Sep 29, 2015
14,142
12,130
People need to realize that Seatle can keep their money to build their team via trades and UFA's. They don't have to take bad contracts in the expansion draft.

With the flat cap, teams desperate to unload money in the next offseason will help them tremendously (see: Schmidt trade) and they can also bank on UFA's that don't receive good offers because all the other teams don't have cap space.

From a roster building POV, Seattle is extremely lucky to enter the league in these conditions.
It depends on what they're trying to do. If they're trying to compete right away, they won't be taking on bad deals. They'll get the best team they can and supplement it with free agency. They'll certainly have lots of options with all the one year deals that were signed this offseason.

But if they're going to do what Vegas did and build for futures (remember, Vegas had 3 1sts in their first draft, they didn't expect to be that good), taking on bad deals will be a great way to get teams to give up picks and prospects. Arguably, Vegas's glut of futures ended up being beneficial because they used them to trade for win-now pieces like Stone and Pacioretty.
 

Balthazar

I haven't talked to the trainers yet
Sponsor
Apr 25, 2006
49,281
51,939
It depends on what they're trying to do. If they're trying to compete right away, they won't be taking on bad deals. They'll get the best team they can and supplement it with free agency. They'll certainly have lots of options with all the one year deals that were signed this offseason.

But if they're going to do what Vegas did and build for futures (remember, Vegas had 3 1sts in their first draft, they didn't expect to be that good), taking on bad deals will be a great way to get teams to give up picks and prospects. Arguably, Vegas's glut of futures ended up being beneficial because they used them to trade for win-now pieces like Stone and Pacioretty.

Vegas didn't have the chance that Seattle has with the cap situation.

Francis would be really dumb not to put all his eggs in the pandemic basket and not use all his cap space available to take advantage of it.

With all that cap space he's going to be the King of the offseason.
 

forsbergavs32

Global Moderator
Jan 21, 2011
27,508
24,793
Fresno,CA
If it were me, I’d see if we could send a pick to Seattle for them to take someone like Compher or Donskoi.

I’d prefer shipping Donskoi as he’s overpaid for what he brings and likely keeping Kaut from a spot, but if Jost can keep up the good start he’s had and turns it into a solid year we could Roll with Jost and hopefully Bowers down the middle in the bottom 6.
 

TruePowerSlave

Registered User
Jun 27, 2015
7,006
8,468
Making deals with Seattle makes no sense, unless Francis just does a bad job.

The only way they would accept a expansion trade is if they think they got the better deal, we saw it with Vegas how well that went.
 

Bender

Registered User
Sep 25, 2002
17,295
8,530
If it were me, I’d see if we could send a pick to Seattle for them to take someone like Compher or Donskoi.

I’d prefer shipping Donskoi as he’s overpaid for what he brings and likely keeping Kaut from a spot, but if Jost can keep up the good start he’s had and turns it into a solid year we could Roll with Jost and hopefully Bowers down the middle in the bottom 6.

I think that's going to be a last reason sort of situation but I don't see the Avs getting to that point. Personally, I believe there will be a lot of guys exposed by teams that could be considered in the "good player but hasn't lived up to the contract" type of situation. Ryan Johansen is a great example of this and there are many others. I think teams will be a lot less likely to move picks to keep what they have and will be a lot more strategic this time around having had the Vegas expansion experience under their belt.

In the end, I'm expecting the Kraken to have the choice between Graves, Compher, Donskoi or EJ but they won't choose EJ and everyone knows it. They'll be happy to choose Graves.
 

PAZ

.
Jul 14, 2011
17,394
9,764
BC
It's only 2 games into the season, but if Jost continues to play how he has, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the pick. I don't see why they would take Donskoi unless we paid them to.
 

tigervixxxen

Optimism=Delusional
Jul 7, 2013
53,060
6,156
Denver
burgundy-review.com
It's only 2 games into the season, but if Jost continues to play how he has, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the pick. I don't see why they would take Donskoi unless we paid them to.
JTC and Donny are a pipe dream. Their analytics are poor and are overpaid. There will be no argument from that massive analytics dept that will get Seattle to take those guys. Jost would be intriguing to them I agree. We’ll see how Graves’ analytics hold up for him.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cousin Eddie

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,173
20,795
JTC and Donny are a pipe dream. Their analytics are poor and are overpaid. There will be no argument from that massive analytics dept that will get Seattle to take those guys. Jost would be intriguing to them I agree. We’ll see how Graves’ analytics hold up for him.
Donskoi's metrics have fallen off a cliff after joining the Avs, and he's clearly the ideal guy to eject in the expansion draft.

You can easily see from his underlying stats with San Jose what it was that attracted our analytics guys to sign him, but his metrics have fallen off hard since then, and he's clearly been our worst forward since signing.


upload_2021-1-18_11-55-11.png



upload_2021-1-18_12-1-27.png



If Donskoi doesn't revert to how he played in San Jose he's very likely going to find himself off this team one way well before his contract ends, whether it's a trade or the expansion draft.

Personally I wouldn't be opposed at all to sending a reasonably valued draft pick or a B prospect to Seattle to entice them to take Donskoi, as losing him would be the optimal outcome based on our roster outlook.

upload_2021-1-18_12-12-43.png



Removing Donskoi would allow Compher to slide back to RW, thus creating the space at 3C for Newhook to slot in. Kaut should be able to continue to play at a 3rd line/middle 6 level as he did in his 9 games last season; and either Kaut or Nichuskin would play on the 2nd line. An experienced 4th line forward would need to be signed to round out the lineup (whether it's Bellemare, Paquette, or someone else).

Capwise we'd have plenty of space having resigned all our key guys. We would be able to retain our extremely strong defensive depth, losing only Ian Cole from this years roster.

upload_2021-1-18_12-14-42.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grigowski

Metallo

NWOBHM forever \m/
Feb 14, 2010
18,377
15,007
Québec, QC
Yup the crux of the issue... Olofsson went down in the 2nd (?) period of the first game of the season in his first year. He played less than 15 minutes and it counted as a season for Minny. Now he stepped on the ice and played, if that this the distinction, then Timmins will be exempt.
Nice summary of the situation. I don’t know the exact language of the relevant rules, hopefully the word « played » is used.

On the other hand, I’m not too optimistic because he did get paid for that lost season. Sounds to me like a « professional season ».
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad