Expansion draft discussion

[Balthazar]

Instead of hijacking another thread let's do that here.

Clark seems to believe that Burakovsky could be higher in the food chain than Kadri.

"In this case, Sakic and his staff protect four defensemen and four forwards. They protect Girard, Makar and Johnson while deliberating on Graves or Toews throughout the season. The four forwards who are protected are Burakovsky, Landeskog, MacKinnon and Rantanen. Doing that means Kadri and Nichushkin are left exposed."

Then later he says:

"Unless it is deemed keeping Kadri is more important than protecting Burakovsky."


Also this about EJ:

"But there is something that could complicate asking if Johnson can waive his clause: Is it too grand a favor to ask of a player who remained loyal through lean seasons to make one more concession for the good of the franchise knowing it could potentially backfire?"


Devon Toews' contract could impact the Avalanche in the expansion draft

Click to read more...

 

[Hasbro]

I'm sure the Avalanche have already got an agreement in place for EJ to waive or just plan to buy him out.

At this point it would be unprofessional to leave EJ with a cloud hanging over his head the whole season and he can do simple math too. He went to Minnesota NOT North Dakota.

He's professional enough not to get butthurt about being asked to waive and would make at least a couple of guys in the locker room appreciative,

Were he to force the Avalanche into a buyout, he'll have to move to another team an make up $4 million in salary over the next two years, which could be difficult with the flat cap. Waiving is the preferable option.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'm sure the Avalanche have already got an agreement in place for EJ to waive or just plan to buy him out.

At this point it would be unprofessional to leave EJ with a cloud hanging over his head the whole season and he can do simple math too. He went to Minnesota NOT North Dakota.

He's professional enough not to get butthurt about being asked to waive and would make at least a couple of guys in the locker room appreciative,

Were he to force the Avalanche into a buyout, he'll have to move to another team an make up $4 million in salary over the next two years, which could be difficult with the flat cap. Waiving is the preferable option.

Quite frankly I would bet they haven't even had a single discussion with EJ yet regarding expansion. And... Unprofessional? Come on...

 

[Hasbro]

Quite frankly I would bet they haven't even had a single discussion with EJ yet regarding expansion. And... Unprofessional? Come on...

Pretty risky trading for Toews without knowing EJ’s status.

 

[Richard88]

Leaving Burakovsky exposed would obviously be preferable over leaving Kadri exposed.

Both will have 1 year to UFA, but 2C is a much harder role to fill. Kadri's €4.5m caphit also presents more value and is €400k cheaper than Burakovsky.

If Burakovsky gets selected a replacement could be easy to acquire, either by resigning Saad or by going after an UFA or RFA via trade in what will be a pretty decent market for forwards in 2021. Whereas if we lost Kadri all our eggs would be in the Newhook basket as it would be much harder to find a better 2C for a year until Newhook is ready than Kadri.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Pretty risky trading for Toews without knowing EJ’s status.

No it isn't.


If EJ won't waive they protect 4D/4F, or they just buy out EJ which should be given consideration regardless.


Folks really need to just come to grips with the fact we are going to lose a decent player this time around. There's nothing we can do to stop that from happening, just let it happen and hope that our youth can replace whoever we lose for cheaper.

 

[Richard Doll]

It would be a failure on Joe's part if he trades away 2 decent draft picks for a guy then let's him go unprotected.

 

[LostInMosEisley]

Get EJ to waive. Whether or not they've already had the discussion is irrelevant. EJ has to waive. They just can't give one of the protection spots to him. It's a business and they can ask him to waive nicely and if he refuses, they tell him they'll move him or buy him out (they can move him to one of his 19 teams and retain salary if they don't want any dead cap hit after his contract expires-- retaining salary should make moving him doable). There's lots of options on the table to make sure it's in his personal interests to waive. Ideally he'll waive and he won't be picked by Seattle and he remains on the team.

If he waives it's simple, go 7/3, protect Makar Girard and Toews. Protect the big 3, Kadri, Burakovsky, probably Nichushkin and Donskoi though the last two spots can be flexible. And probably Grubauer assuming he doesn't have a terrible season or have lingering injury issues.

In the event EJ doesn't waive and the Avs are not willing to use options on the table to basically leave him no choice, that would probably be the only reason to consider going 4/4. If they go 4/4 the defensemen are still an easy matter to pick, the same 3 as above plus EJ. For the forwards the big 3 then one of Kadri/Burakovsky. There's arguments to be made for either, and the way the season go for both of them, plus the way Newhook develops will probably determine that. Burakovsky is younger, but 2nd line center is a much harder position to fill than 2nd line winger. It'd put a lot of pressure on Newhook to come in and play well as a 2nd line center on an NHL team as a 20 year old rookie if they lose Kadri next off season. This has been a weird off season but there happen to be decent options for a 2nd line winger available to sign as a free agent at the moment. (Hoffman, Duclair) There likely will be decent options next off season. They could also trade a pick to Seattle to steer them towards Graves or Compher. Kadri or Burakovsky may not be the most appealing options for Seattle as they'll both have just one year under contract left before becoming a UFA.

But they should get EJ to waive... makes things much simpler.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

It would be a failure on Joe's part if he trades away 2 decent draft picks for a guy then let's him go unprotected.

I dont think anybody expects this to happen. He is certainly one of the 3 or 4 Dmen we protect.


That said... Even if for some unexpected reason that winds up happening... two layers 2nd round picks for a "1 year rental" as good as Toews would still.be fantastic value.

 

[shadow1]

Similar to Francois Beauchemin last expansion draft, if Erik Johnson is unwilling to waive his NMC, he'll be bought out.

It's not ideal, seeing as the Avs will be forced to pay him $2M for four seasons. But it's not like the Avalanche haven't had dead cap before; $4.5M for Francois Beauchemin in 2018, $2.5M for Brooks Oprik in 2019, and a combined $4.25M this past season for Tyson Barrie + Brooks Orpik.

 

[AnimalMother73]

I think it’s more likely he’s traded w retention than bought out, if it comes to it.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

I dont think anybody expects this to happen. He is certainly one of the 3 or 4 Dmen we protect.


That said... Even if for some unexpected reason that winds up happening... two layers 2nd round picks for a "1 year rental" as good as Toews would still.be fantastic value.

I wouldn't call that value fantastic if Toews is a rental.

The Isles were forced to trade Toews no matter what and the flat cap is making players trade value tank.

In a normal year the value would be great. However, you can't judge moves by those standards this offseason.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I think it’s more likely he’s traded w retention than bought out, if it comes to it.

But then you have to find a team that can actually protect him in the ED that isn’t on his to trade list.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I wouldn't call that value fantastic if Toews is a rental.

The Isles were forced to trade Toews no matter what and the flat cap is making players trade value tank.

In a normal year the value would be great. However, you can't judge moves by those standards this offseason.

No, they definitely were not forced to trade Toews no matter what.


Read the Isles fans thoughts on the situation. They were pissed to have lost Toews, they never imagined having to lose him because of the cap situation and believed they had other options available besides the Toews route.


Again its a silly debate to have because Toews is here for 4 more years not 1 and we aren't going to expose him in the expansion draft. But even one year of Toews is easily worth two 60th overall picks.


One other team managed to take advantage of a team in cap trouble doesn't make the Toews deal worse.

 

[Richard88]

I think it’s more likely he’s traded w retention than bought out, if it comes to it.

I agree. Capspace is more important for a contender than an extra pick or two, so I think Sakic surely explores every avenue of trading Johnson before he considers a buyout, even if it requires retention or adding a decent asset.

 

[Richard88]

No, they definitely were not forced to trade Toews no matter what.


Read the Isles fans thoughts on the situation. They were pissed to have lost Toews, they never imagined having to lose him because of the cap situation and believed they had other options available besides the Toews route.


Again its a silly debate to have because Toews is here for 4 more years not 1 and we aren't going to expose him in the expansion draft. But even one year of Toews is easily worth two 60th overall picks.


One other team managed to take advantage of a team in cap trouble doesn't make the Toews deal worse.

I agree. In the Toews trade board thread I showed that the value of two late 2nd's is equivalent to a pick around 45th eg. consider the recent draft day trade between OTT/TOR involving 44 for 58 + 64), so if Toews had only been for 1 year it would have been a mid 2nd for 1 year of a #3 Dman which is not bad value at all.

For comparison look at Vegas trading 2 2nd's to LA Kings for Martinez at the deadline. Similar value even though a players value is arguably higher at the deadline due to cap considerations, but either way we get a better player for a full season for a similar draft pick package.

 

[henchman21]

I think it’s more likely he’s traded w retention than bought out, if it comes to it.

That is tricky... he has a NTC where he can only be traded to 19 teams, and the reason for moving him is his NMC. The team acquiring him has to have cap room, only 2 defenders better than EJ, and EJ is not likely to waive to go to a bottom feeder since he has been on bad teams most of his career (maybe outside of LA or Anaheim). I don't think trading EJ will be all that easy.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I wouldn’t assume they see EJ as a problem at all. It’s a lot different than Beauchemin, EJ is the longest tenured Av and wears a letter. It’s a lot more to consider when dumping him. Maybe they’ll ask and maybe he waives but I’m not just going to assume he’s not going to be an expansion factor.

It looks like to me the 4/4 route makes the most sense at this point. They didn’t marry themselves to Burakovsky when they had the chance and so I don’t think he’s higher in the pecking order at all. If he’s taken then that money is freed up to next summer go after any of these better forwards who took one year deals in free agency.

 

[Bonzai12]

I got a hard time believing Super Joe is throwing around 2nd round draft picks and 4 year contracts without already have a solid plan for the expansion draft

 

[S E P H]

Avs can always say, "we're going to give you a second so you won't pick player 1, 2, or 3" as well...

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Protecting EJ would be just dumb at this point.

He is the worst contract on the team and has no business to be protected over Makar, Girard or Toews. If we go with 8 skaters he doesn't deserve to be protected over Kadri or Bura either.

He has been with the team for a long time but you have to take the teams interests and cup window into consideration. Ask him to waive or buy him out. EJ has negative trade value even with retention due to his expansion status.

 

[AvsCOL]

Tom Hunter thinks is could to do them leaving Landeskog unprotected....

 

[Balthazar]

It looks like to me the 4/4 route makes the most sense at this point. They didn’t marry themselves to Burakovsky when they had the chance and so I don’t think he’s higher in the pecking order at all. If he’s taken then that money is freed up to next summer go after any of these better forwards who took one year deals in free agency.

Yeah but in that scenario we're still stuck with Graves and his 3.16M AAV for 2 more years.

So not only you lose Bura but them not taking Graves is a downside.

 

[Balthazar]

Tom Hunter thinks is could to do them leaving Landeskog unprotected....

Clark did it too:

Another risky avenue Sakic and the front office could explore would be Landeskog’s situation. Landeskog is the only skater expected to be protected who will be a UFA after next season. Sakic said earlier this month the organization has already held initial discussions with Landeskog’s representatives about a new contract. Re-signing Landeskog to an extension means the Avalanche would protect him. Hypothetically, the Avs could elect to not re-sign Landeskog or leave him unprotected in the attempt to protect one more player.

--
Basically having a handshake agreement with Landy and re-signing him after the draft.

 

[Hasbro]

No it isn't.


If EJ won't waive they protect 4D/4F, or they just buy out EJ which should be given consideration regardless.

That’s a stupid way of doing something. Why would you not have a half hour conversation to resolve the issue and as far as I know end of season exit interviews with every player are standard.

Folks really need to just come to grips with the fact we are going to lose a decent player this time around. There's nothing we can do to stop that from happening, just let it happen and hope that our youth can replace whoever we lose for cheaper.

We’re prepared to lose a good player, what we want is the Avalanche to gain an advantage from the expansion draft.7+3 you can steer Seattle to taking $3M + off the cap for the Avalanche (Graves probably). 4x4 the Avs open them selves up to the worse scenarios of losing of losing a better player than Graves OR Seattle taking a cheaper guy like Jost or Nuke and leaving the Avalanche having a harder time clearing out salary.