Speculation: Dynamics of the Canadian Division, and Playoff Implications.

[Perfect_Drug]

SWEEPS SWEEPS SWEEPS!

There's a pattern that's starting to emerge here.
This playoffs for this division is all going to come down to 2 things all season long:

1. Not getting swept in any more mini-series against the top 6 teams.
2. Beating Ottawa.

Top 2 Teams:
Habs & Leafs all have one thing in common:
They swept a series against a top - 6 Team.

4-5-6 Teams:
Oilers Flames and Canucks have one thing in common:
They got swept in a series.

We are going to need to sweep one of the top-6 teams to "get back" that sweep.
These are the Sweep leaders:
Habs +2
Leafs +1
Jets - 0
Flames - 0
Oilers -1
Canucks -1


The SECOND part of this season, is every playoff team in this division NEEDS to beat Ottawa (who will act as this years spoilers). We can't expect Ottawa to lose all games. That won't happen. They already beat the Leafs.

BUT

The team that has the MOST losses to Ottawa likely won't make the playoffs, because Ottawa's role will be to f***up the top-6 bracket as much as they can.

I'm starting to think we can't look at the standings as they are, because there's too many variables attached.

Right now the Jets get to be there, because they had an expected 3-game sweep of the Senators.
The Canucks are looking to 3-game sweep the Senators tonight.



We're getting our 4 games against the Senators REALLY soon.
4 wins against the Senators are 8-gimme points.

The Canucks will get a 4-game Series against Ottawa at the end of April.

Click to read more...

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Montreal and Toronto are the class of the division IMO
if were gonna lose...may as well be to these 2 teams

Need to beat the Jets
Need to beat the Flames
Need to beat the Canucks
NEED to blow out the Sens

if we have winning records against these teams, we should squeak in

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I'm realising how much the Standings are a total illusion.
It's insane how quickly we can make up 4 points in this division.

The Jets haven't been swept by a Top-6 team yet.
But they did get to have a 3-game sweep of the Senators which is propping up their record.

That's the illusion of them being where they are in the standings. Split against Oilers and a loss to Toronto.
They Jets have an upcoming 4 game series against the Flames.

Vancouver is sitting 4th right now but they're in far worse shape than they look, based on 2 wins against the Senators.
But they've been swept twice already.


It's crazy how much of a wild-card The Senators will be this year. If the Senators sweep a team, that's going to REALLY do damage to their playoff chances.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I think the better way to think of the standings isn't anything like a typical NHL season.
We need to think of this season as extended Round-Robin play.

Not that I imagine that it will happen, but sweeping Toronto will more or less put us on the same footing as them.
Another split keeps us both exactly where we're at.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

You need to sweep your series in order to gain any ground in this format and not be swept. Coaches will start to coach the offence out of the game with this kind of format just like in the playoffs where safe hockey is played as each series is a mini-playoff entry series.

Still - Ottawa wont continue to be swept just like Montreal wont continue to sweep, but the best teams will rise and worst teams fall.

 

[Weitz]

Well curreently from what I have seen I would put the teams as

Toronto/Montreal
Winnipeg/Calgary
Edmonton/Vancouver
Ottawa.

Going to take a serious run for the Oilers to get back into this I think and they haven't shown anything to indicate they can do it.

 

[Faelko]

I’d add that we should also be cheering for Toronto (gross) and Montreal to win in regulation vs WPG-CGY-VAN and to lose against OTT. (That’s assuming we’re conceding the top 2 spots to them).

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Well curreently from what I have seen I would put the teams as

Toronto/Montreal
Winnipeg/Calgary
Edmonton/Vancouver
Ottawa.

Going to take a serious run for the Oilers to get back into this I think and they haven't shown anything to indicate they can do it.

That's the thing, I don't know if that's the case.

What has Winnipeg actually done this season?
You think a 3-game sweep of the Senators puts them a tier above us?
Calgary only has 2 wins on the season against the Canucks. They're not above us at all.

We have 4 games against Ottawa Next week.

If we win all 4 games against Ottawa (very likely) we'll be leading this division.
But in the same vein, it won't MEAN anything because Ottawa is just there as a spoiler. Every team should EXPECT to sweep Ottawa.
Getting swept by Ottawa is going to really hurt.


BTW Winnipeg doesn't play anymore games against the Habs and Leafs until March-April where they play 16 games against them.
If they get swept a couple times, they might be in the basement.

 

[Weitz]

That's the thing, I don't know if that's the case.

What has Winnipeg actually done this season?
You think a 3-game sweep of the Senators puts them a tier above us?
Calgary only has 2 wins on the season against the Canucks. They're not above us at all.

We have 4 games against Ottawa Next week.

If we win all 4 games against Ottawa (very likely) we'll be leading this division.
But in the same vein, it won't MEAN anything because Ottawa is just there as a spoiler. Every team should EXPECT to sweep Ottawa.
Getting swept by Ottawa is going to really hurt.


BTW Winnipeg doesn't play anymore games against the Habs and Leafs until March-April where they play 16 games against them.
If they get swept a couple times, they might be in the basement.

What has happened this year to think its very likely they win 4 in a row against anyone?

I'm measuring that based on how teams have looked this year.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I’d add that we should also be cheering for Toronto (gross) and Montreal to win in regulation vs WPG-CGY-VAN and to lose against OTT. (That’s assuming we’re conceding the top 2 spots to them).

I actually think we should be cheering for splits at this point. It keeps everyone in range.
BTW Everyone in the division should be cheering for Ottawa to win against any team that's not theirs.

Montreal always comes out strong EVERY season, and then the wheels fall off about halfway through. I don't think what they're doing now is indicative of how they'll play the entire year.

 

[Faelko]

I actually think we should be cheering for splits at this point. It keeps everyone in range.
BTW Everyone in the division should be cheering for Ottawa to win against any team that's not theirs.

Montreal always comes out strong EVERY season, and then the wheels fall off about halfway through. I don't think what they're doing now is indicative of how they'll play the entire year.

Depends if you think the Oilers are “division title challengers” or just “hoping to get into the playoffs”. I’m just hoping to get in so I want CGY-VAN-WPG to lose as much as possible, if that means giving wins to the other 2 (again, gross) so be it.

I guess we’ll see with MTL, halfway through normally is game 41. They’d only have to regress for 15 more games this year.

 

[TB12]

As anyone that played/coached university sport where typically you play the same team in back to backs every weekend can attest, it is tough to sweep. Even if you’re the “better” team, when you win one it is always tough to beat them again the next day. Teams adjust, come out hungrier, etc. I think the standings will be pretty close in the North all year due to that.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

What has happened this year to think its very likely they win 4 in a row against anyone?
I'm measuring that based on how teams have looked this year.

I think each Ottawa "win" is a massive blow to every team in the top-6.

Last season Ottawa had 25 wins (but they got plenty of games against Jersey, Detroit and Buffalo).
I think this season they'll get about 15 wins.

Teams that lose more than 3 times to the Senators are gonna be f***ed, and the Teams that lose only 2 times will be considered "par".

Ottawa is still an NHL caliber team, and has the ability to squeak out a winning record against any of us.
If Ottawa beats us 3 times next week, that throws a massive wrench on our season.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Depends if you think the Oilers are “division title challengers” or just “hoping to get into the playoffs”. I’m just hoping to get in so I want CGY-VAN-WPG to lose as much as possible, if that means giving wins to the other 2 (again, gross) so be it.

I guess we’ll see with MTL, halfway through normally is game 41. They’d only have to regress for 15 more games this year.

The funny thing about our record.. is that it's simply a reflection of Montreal sweeping us, and that's it.


If we split with Montreal, we would be sitting at 4W4L in 4th place in this division, with 4-games against Ottawa next week.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

As anyone that played/coached university sport where typically you play the same team in back to backs every weekend can attest, it is tough to sweep. Even if you’re the “better” team, when you win one it is always tough to beat them again the next day. Teams adjust, come out hungrier, etc. I think the standings will be pretty close in the North all year due to that.

I just want us to come out of Toronto with a split.

If we somehow manage to sweep Toronto, both teams are back in the middle.

 

[barry halls]

The Oilers had better not be looking at the Ottawa games as gimmes. The Senators, mired in a slump and with their measly playoff hopes slipping away, and with young players on the roster yet to score their first NHL goal, have January 31st circled on their calendars as the day they get to visit the league's favourite slump-busters. Would anyone really be shocked if they embarrass us with 6 or 7 goals in one of the games? Remember they ran the Oilers show in the last game played.

 

[McDrai]

The Oilers had better not be looking at the Ottawa games as gimmes. The Senators, mired in a slump and with their measly playoff hopes slipping away, and with young players on the roster yet to score their first NHL goal, have January 31st circled on their calendars as the day they get to visit the league's favourite slump-busters. Would anyone really be shocked if they embarrass us with 6 or 7 goals in one of the games? Remember they ran the Oilers show in the last game played.

We seem to play to the level of our opposition. Add to the fact that this team is as consistent as a russian roulette table and I'm thinking we split the series with Ottawa. I'm sure one of our wins against them will be a spanking giving Oilers fans the mirage that the "Oilerz r sew Gewd" and have turned the corner, only to tumble back to earth in the next game when the Oilers decide not to show up

 

[TB12]

We seem to play to the level of our opposition. Add to the fact that this team is as consistent as a russian roulette table and I'm thinking we split the series with Ottawa. I'm sure one of our wins against them will be a spanking giving Oilers fans the mirage that the "Oilerz r sew Gewd" and have turned the corner, only to tumble back to earth in the next game when the Oilers decide not to show up

I hate how accurate and likely this is

 

[Drivesaitl]

That's the thing, I don't know if that's the case.

What has Winnipeg actually done this season?
You think a 3-game sweep of the Senators puts them a tier above us?
Calgary only has 2 wins on the season against the Canucks. They're not above us at all.

We have 4 games against Ottawa Next week.

If we win all 4 games against Ottawa (very likely) we'll be leading this division.
But in the same vein, it won't MEAN anything because Ottawa is just there as a spoiler. Every team should EXPECT to sweep Ottawa.
Getting swept by Ottawa is going to really hurt.


BTW Winnipeg doesn't play anymore games against the Habs and Leafs until March-April where they play 16 games against them.
If they get swept a couple times, they might be in the basement.

Winnipeg was markedly better than us in both games, and almost won both. Without Laine orDubois on lineup. I think you're overthinking this.

The Oilers winning all 4 games they should? Delusion. ? jk aside you can't count games until they happen. Not ever, with the Oilers. We bowed out to a 12 place team that was closer to last place, than a playoff spot. Remember that?

if we don't hold serve against Toronto and at least go .500 we'll need all 4 Ottawa games just to get back to evens.

Whats screwing us so far also is not getting any losing games into OT

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Doesn't matter if Winnipeg looked better than us in both games (I'd argue we looked better than them for 3 out of 6 periods).

Results are the only thing that matters.

We looked absolutely pitiful against Toronto in our first win. Doesn't matter.
Win is a win.


If we're in a playoff spot at the end of the season I won't care how we won in January.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I don't think our current standing is nearly as dire as most on this board seems to think it is.
These losses to Toronto and Montreal might not matter in the end if these 2 teams are running away with the division and continue beating teams we're competing with.

This season is an extended round robin.


Obviously I'd prefer we get the split against Toronto rather than go down -2 in "series sweeps".


Basically, we've played the most games against the "best" teams in our division, and zero games against Ottawa.
The Flames got swept by Toronto and Montreal as well.
Vancouver got swept by Montreal as well.

Winnipeg hasn't played any series against Montreal or Toronto (but lost their single game to Toronto).

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I think we can forget about playoffs at this point.

 

[Aerchon]

We seem to play to the level of our opposition. Add to the fact that this team is as consistent as a russian roulette table and I'm thinking we split the series with Ottawa. I'm sure one of our wins against them will be a spanking giving Oilers fans the mirage that the "Oilerz r sew Gewd" and have turned the corner, only to tumble back to earth in the next game when the Oilers decide not to show up

I think we can forget about playoffs at this point.

This and this.

Oilers are not just playing bad they are playing bottom 5 league bad. They are an Ottawa level bad team in their own right and I guarantee Ottawa will rise up for the games against us since we are the only team in the division they know they can beat. Combine that with how these Oilers regularly play down to opponents and I wouldn't be surprised if Ottawa sweeps us.

I don't know how the media has not jumped on the Oilers terrible play yet. Surprisingly merciful but after we lose to Ottawa we will likely get the well deserved negative press.

"What's wrong with the Oilers?" "McDavid wanting out." Etc...

 

[Chabot84]

SWEEPS SWEEPS SWEEPS!

There's a pattern that's starting to emerge here.
This playoffs for this division is all going to come down to 2 things all season long:

1. Not getting swept in any more mini-series against the top 6 teams.
2. Beating Ottawa.

Top 2 Teams:
Habs & Leafs all have one thing in common:
They swept a series against a top - 6 Team.

4-5-6 Teams:
Oilers Flames and Canucks have one thing in common:
They got swept in a series.

We are going to need to sweep one of the top-6 teams to "get back" that sweep.
These are the Sweep leaders:
Habs +2
Leafs +1
Jets - 0
Flames - 0
Oilers -1
Canucks -1


The SECOND part of this season, is every playoff team in this division NEEDS to beat Ottawa (who will act as this years spoilers). We can't expect Ottawa to lose all games. That won't happen. They already beat the Leafs.

BUT

The team that has the MOST losses to Ottawa likely won't make the playoffs, because Ottawa's role will be to f***up the top-6 bracket as much as they can.

I'm starting to think we can't look at the standings as they are, because there's too many variables attached.

Right now the Jets get to be there, because they had an expected 3-game sweep of the Senators.
The Canucks are looking to 3-game sweep the Senators tonight.



We're getting our 4 games against the Senators REALLY soon.
4 wins against the Senators are 8-gimme points.

The Canucks will get a 4-game Series against Ottawa at the end of April.

Hahahahaha.. its true. The standings arent even real.. you should make a new set of standings based of your rules, the real standings.

 

[tardigrade81]

Montreal and Toronto are the class of the division IMO
if were gonna lose...may as well be to these 2 teams

Need to beat the Jets
Need to beat the Flames
Need to beat the Canucks
NEED to blow out the Sens

if we have winning records against these teams, we should squeak in

I like the sounds of this. We won’t do much in the playoffs, but I still like extra hockey.