Dylan Larkin's Contract

[njx9]

But every year that 2.5 million becomes less and less of an impact. The team won't be competitive for at least 3 more years, and Holland with cap money is like a fat man at an all you can eat buffet, we all know there's a self-control issue.

I don't disagree, but I don't think we're talking about $500k or anything. $2.5m is a significant amount of headroom for a Zadina extension, for instance. It means you don't have to nickel and dime some of the supporting role players.

All that said, I don't get going to 5-6 years if you're not sure he'll be good enough to justify more. Might as well just go with 2 years, at that point. Save money now, and make him prove that he's earned it later. You'll probably still "only" overpay for those 3 years by a couple million apparently irrelevant dollars.

 

[Shaman464]

I don't disagree, but I don't think we're talking about $500k or anything. $2.5m is a significant amount of headroom for a Zadina extension, for instance. It means you don't have to nickel and dime some of the supporting role players.

All that said, I don't get going to 5-6 years if you're not sure he'll be good enough to justify more. Might as well just go with 2 years, at that point. Save money now, and make him prove that he's earned it later. You'll probably still "only" overpay for those 3 years by a couple million apparently irrelevant dollars.

With all the contracts coming off the books in the next couple years, any extension after these next two season seem to be pretty easy to manage.

 

[Henkka]

I think $2.5m is a significant amount of money, if we're in the middle of trying to keep a competitive team together.

The difference is probably ~500k.

I already created the table. It has a lot of math behind from contract comparables and cap estimated growth.

If Larkin is worth 5.95M in a 6 year-deal, the other options are:

8-year deal, 6.48M caphit
7-year deal, 6.22M
6-year deal, 5.95M
5-year deal, 5.65M
4-year deal, 5.33M
3-year deal, 5.11M
2-year deal 4.88M
1-year-deal 4.66M

If somebody thinks Larkin is worth 7.5M per 8 years, then his 6-year deal would be at ~7M range.

I'm quite sure he isn't worth that.

 

[Hammettf2b]

 

[Henkka]

And training camp will start when? In September?

 

[Ezekial]

And training camp will start when? In September?

September 14th

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

The red wings hesitation to me indicates they are apprehensive offering either term cap hit or both. All he’s said is he wants to be here forever what’s the hold up?

 

[WingsMJN2965]

The red wings hesitation to me indicates they are apprehensive offering either term cap hit or both. All he’s said is he wants to be here forever what’s the hold up?

Or they're just waiting on Zetterberg...

 

[Konnan511]

The red wings hesitation to me indicates they are apprehensive offering either term cap hit or both. All he’s said is he wants to be here forever what’s the hold up?

They probably have the term and number, but are figuring out some bonuses or smaller parts of a contract that need to be negotiated. Plus, larkin's agent may be on family vacation or something. Lot's of reasons it isn't done, but they probably know what number works with what term.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

The red wings hesitation to me indicates they are apprehensive offering either term cap hit or both. All he’s said is he wants to be here forever what’s the hold up?

Holland is offering 5 years but it sounds like Overhardt and Larks want 6 years at around $6 million per.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

The fact that nothing has changed is what tells me they're waiting on Z.

Unless Holland's really that upset about adding on a 6th year for his next captain. Which would be a joke. $6M per for a guy who's looking at a Elite #2C floor or legit #1C ceiling is a steal. You should be locking him up as long as possible. Especially with the cap hikes coming down the pike. (Seattle expansion and new TV deal)

 

[odin1981]

For it to be a steal... he’s got to become a bonafide 1C. Not good compared to a rebuilding Detroit but good compared to the league. If Larkin never gets much better than he is now, 7.5 would be too much money.

If he blows up and becomes a truly elite C , then he gets slotted in with the Tavares/Matthews/McDavid contract valuation and you build your team around that.

Do you see Larkin being an 75-80 point #1C for years and years? Kuznetsov had 77 points, 59, and signed a 8/7.8 to follow it up with 83.

Kuzy > Larkin. There is no comparable to support 8/7.5 for Larkin.

And frankly right now, I’d rather have Larkin for 5x6 right now and have to pay up if he explodes than lock him up for 8x7.5 and have him stagnate. I don’t think 5x6 is underselling him or going cheap on him. I think it is paying him what he has earned so far and then I deal with maybe paying him 9M+ per season in years 6-8. We are talking about saving maybe 1.5M per year unless Larkin becomes a top 5C in the league.

Your not locking him up for 8/7.5 . This isn't the early 2010's. The cap will be around 100 million when he hits his UFA deal. And if he is a proven 2 way stud + 60-70 points thats Bergeron level so he will make at least 9 million.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Your not locking him up for 8/7.5 . This isn't the early 2010's. The cap will be around 100 million when he hits his UFA deal. And if he is a proven 2 way stud + 60-70 points thats Bergeron level so he will make at least 9 million.

Ehhh... You're overshooting by about $2M.

 

[Oddbob]

Your not locking him up for 8/7.5 . This isn't the early 2010's. The cap will be around 100 million when he hits his UFA deal. And if he is a proven 2 way stud + 60-70 points that's Bergeron level so he will make at least 9 million.

Larkin is not worth 9 mil per and won't be getting any where near that in this contract. That is LUDICROUS! One 63 pt season, he would need to repeat that 4 years in a row, and even then, 9 is quite high! Also, he is RFA, not UFA, makes a major difference when talking this kind of money.

 

[odin1981]

Larkin is not worth 9 mil per and won't be getting any where near that in this contract. That is LUDICROUS! One 63 pt season, he would need to repeat that 4 years in a row, and even then, 9 is quite high! Also, he is RFA, not UFA, makes a major difference when talking this kind of money.

If you read my post correctly you would notice I said 9 per on his full UFA deal. Because tsweeney said in some alternate reality that he would sign for 7.5 after this coming contract. I believe this coming deal will be 6 give or take 250k either way.

 

[Killerjas]

6.5 million for 6 years seems good.

 

[Larkin1578]

Just get the extension done already..geesh.

 

[Oddbob]

Just get the extension done already..geesh.

You have the pen, just sign already.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

Or they're just waiting on Zetterberg...

I don't think they're necessarily waiting on Z. I think they're waiting on the possibility of anybody getting injured.

FWIW, I think Z already gave them his answer in July when he said he would. I'm personally not holding my breath for any press conference about it.

 

[Flowah]

Or they're just waiting on Zetterberg...

No offense, but why doesn't he know yet? It's already August. I'm not sure what another month is going to mean. It's either a fundamentally bad health problem that prohibits him from being competitive for a whole season or it's not. Is a month going to really make the difference there? Is he waiting on surgery? Did he just get it and is trying to see how he recuperates?

I think if he's this unsure about his status that's a very strong indicator he should hang em up.

 

[TheMule93]

As I said before I think they're just fabricating this drama about retirement in order to Ale his LTIRetirement more believable next year.

Theres no way he was playing injured when he got 20min a night last season. He is fine.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

As I said before I think they're just fabricating this drama about retirement in order to Ale his LTIRetirement more believable next year.

Theres no way he was playing injured when he got 20min a night last season. He is fine.

That's dumb. Of course he was playing injured. Literally, if he's able to lace up skates and go out there, there is not a difference on a game-in, game-out basis of him playing 15 minutes and him playing 20. He would have likely been more effective in less time, but if you're well enough to go out and play NHL hockey, you're well enough to play your whole allotment of time.

The difference between 15 and 20 minutes a night is roughly 4-5 shifts. Split it up between periods and it's literally about one and a half extra shifts a period.

The Wings don't fabricate drama on things like this and with Hossa, it's been shown that you don't have to fabricate drama to get the relief. Nobody in the public knew of Hossa's gunk problem till he was put on IR because of it. Z has been plainly battling chronic back injuries since 2014 at the very latest (when he missed an entire half of a season for them). Hell, Datsyuk was playing on cadaver ankles for his last season and that didn't come out until noise about his retirement started.

 

[njx9]

it's been shown that you don't have to fabricate drama to get the relief.

While absolutely true today (and while I don't think they're trying to set up an LTIR or anything), if I were a GM, I wouldn't be counting on this as we get closer to the next CBA.

I'm not sure what Z's retirement impact would be on Larkin's contract, though. There are other contracts that could/would get moved if Larkin's $$$ value came in too high.

 

[Bench]

No offense, but why doesn't he know yet? It's already August. I'm not sure what another month is going to mean. It's either a fundamentally bad health problem that prohibits him from being competitive for a whole season or it's not. Is a month going to really make the difference there? Is he waiting on surgery? Did he just get it and is trying to see how he recuperates?

I think if he's this unsure about his status that's a very strong indicator he should hang em up.

People get excited for the new season but once that wears off, the reality of the grind sets in. (I know, boo hoo, poor NHL millionaires)

I'm sure he wants to play, but he's also got to weigh out if he'll have that same enthusiasm in February.

Brett Hull retired after playing 5 games into a season and going, "Nooopppeeee!"

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

While absolutely true today (and while I don't think they're trying to set up an LTIR or anything), if I were a GM, I wouldn't be counting on this as we get closer to the next CBA.

I'm not sure what Z's retirement impact would be on Larkin's contract, though. There are other contracts that could/would get moved if Larkin's $$$ value came in too high.

Z's stuff will be done by the time the CBA comes. They won't have to worry about it.

And basically, Holland is waiting to see if he doesn't have to move any contracts (because Z retired) or he needs to do so (Z stays and Larkin has too much contract). He doesn't make moves just in case he might need room. Either Z retires and nothing needs to be done or Larkin's deal comes in at 6M and nothing beyond Franzen + paper transactions for a couple bottom of the roster guys need to happen. If he can do something without being forced to lose a player (and therefore getting no or incredibly depressed value for a guy, then he will.

Ken Holland will never make a Patrick Sharp + Stephen Johns for Johnny Oduya trade. The only time that something happened that was close was the Datsyuk trade and that was because Datsyuk painted him into a corner. And even then, he traded down 4 spots and received a 2nd round pick for his trouble.