Dylan Larkin looks good so far

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

5 points away from matching his last year production. He has already matched his rookie season in assists, he already has 7 more assists than last year. Goalscoring is down this year however.

It's almost like he went back to the dungeon and practiced passes all summer with his bud instead of snipping.

His SH% is at 6% so he'll likely start scoring a few more goals as the season progresses. I was abit cautious at the beggining of the season with predictions but as of right now i fully expect him to hit the 60 point mark this year with 15-20 goals, while playing a above average 200 foot game and PK. A thing to keep in mind is that this is his first year as a full time center so he is still adjusting.

Holy crap. He REALLY had a down year last year. He is 5 points away from his total of all last year... and there is still four months to go in the season. Sophomore slump is not a joke.

E: I would be floored if he got a bigger deal than Schiefele. Any talk of 6.5-7 should go out the window. Larkin is not the same level of player, at least not yet. He should not have a case for more than 8x6.125. Just like AA. How AA did not have a case for more than Connor Brown's deal.

 

[Henkka]

Mark Scheifele signed a 8x6.125 at 23 after put up 61 points in 71 games. His first 2 years he put up 34 in 63 in his rookie year and 49 in 82 his sophmore year.

Tough to compare anything to the past, because this has been highest scoring season for a while.

Everybody is breaking scoring records, and there's just no cap space for everybody.

Raises will be somehow relative for league-overall scoring.

 

[Claypool]

I'd risk it and give a bridge deal. 2X $5m per

 

[obey86]

If Larkin plays the rest of the season at the same (terrible) scoring pace he played last season at....he'll end the year with 48 points.

 

[Konnan511]

If Larkin plays the rest of the season at the same (terrible) scoring pace he played last season at....he'll end the year with 48 points.

How much do you think he'll get if he keeps up his pace and hits 60, or even 70? Bridge or long term?

 

[TheMule93]

How much do you think he'll get if he keeps up his pace and hits 60, or even 70? Bridge or long term?

I think we'll have to see what happens at the trade deadline. If we manage to open up some space via trades I could see a long term deal right away. If for some reason Holland keeps green and tries to extend him, Larkin would get a bridge deal. It's justified because he had such a disappointing seasons last year, maybe Holland isn't confident in going long term yet

 

[Reddwit]

No point in not going long term. He won’t sign a 1 year deal unless there are major contract disputes. If you go bridge, he’ll want 2 years. In today’s NHL, just putting up 50 points as a two-way top 6 center gets you 5 million. There is little reason to think he won’t do that absent injury considering what he’s done at every level and the progress he’s made adapting to center. So if you go bridge and then want a long term deal afterwards, at that point, he could have 3 straight 50 point seasons under his belt while being a leader and a 2-way guy. You’re also eating up UFA years by then. That’s a scary situation where he could get $8M and if he progresses beyond that into 60 point range, with the cap going up, he could potentially be a $9M guy that we have little choice but to sign.

If he ends the season in the mid 50s or better, I’d offer up to $6.75M x 8.

 

[Heaton]

He'll most likely get the full 8 years, but I don't want to see anything over 5. Once Z retires and our aging depth gets worse, I worry Larkin will regress due to over exposure. I'd feel much better about a really long term deal if we had more high level prospects, but we don't really have any.

 

[Reddwit]

He'll most likely get the full 8 years, but I don't want to see anything over 5. Once Z retires and our aging depth gets worse, I worry Larkin will regress due to over exposure. I'd feel much better about a really long term deal if we had more high level prospects, but we don't really have any.

Hes already playing near top line minutes a game and is thriving. It’d also be shocking to see him regress in a substantial way when he’s done nothing but progress AND learn the game.

And it cuts both ways with prospects. Unless we get some Pittsburgian “luck” of drafting a couple generational centers in short order, it doesn’t matter if we have other high level prospects or zero other high level prospects - we’ll still need to sign him.

You just don’t f*** around about signing two-way skilled centers in this league. People kill for these guys. Nielsen, Zajac, Toews, ROR, Kesler, etc. The contracts for these guys get ugly real fast if you don’t go long term. The points may not accumulate, but if the reputation for two-way play, character, and leadership does, youre f***ed.If he thinks $6M x 8 is the cats pajamas, lock him up, lest we find ourselves with an $85 million cap in a couple years and a guy who’s being compare to Jonathan Toews at the trade table asking for double-digit millions.

 

[Heaton]

Most of the contracts you mentioned are ugly. Larkin will get 8 years, but like any non-star, there's going to be concerns.

 

[Frk It]

He'll most likely get the full 8 years, but I don't want to see anything over 5. Once Z retires and our aging depth gets worse, I worry Larkin will regress due to over exposure. I'd feel much better about a really long term deal if we had more high level prospects, but we don't really have any.

Don’t be jaded because of the stupidity of giving 7 years to Abdelkader. Larkin is the kind of guy you give 7-8 years to, I wouldn’t even worry about it. Plus signing him long term is probably the best way to take advantage of his RFA years at this point.

We’ve already seen what Larkin does when he hits a wall. He puts work in and comes back better.

 

[Redder Winger]

1. Dylan Larkin is not being compared to Toews by anyone actually being serious.
2. I expect the Wings will try to sign him long term, because he's their poster boy. But unless you're getting a great cap hit, I don't see any reason to go more than 4 years.

 

[Ingvar]

1. Dylan Larkin is not being compared to Toews by anyone actually being serious.
2. I expect the Wings will try to sign him long term, because he's their poster boy. But unless you're getting a great cap hit, I don't see any reason to go more than 4 years.

I don't see any reason to sign him for less than 8. That way you lower caphit because guaranteed overall amount of money matters and you get great value if Larkin gets better.

 

[Reddwit]

Most of the contracts you mentioned are ugly. Larkin will get 8 years, but like any non-star, there's going to be concerns.

That’s...exactly why I mentioned them....

None of those guys were given the “risky” contract early on. The end result is an uglier contract later on.

 

[Frk It]

That’s...exactly why I mentioned them....

None of those guys were given the “risky” contract early on. The end result is an uglier contract later on.

Right, that's how that works. You give out a contract now that is majority RFA years, because RFA years are cheaper than UFA years. Bridge contract just means you are paying for more UFA years on the next contract.

 

[Ezekial]

Yup Toews signed a 5x6.3 after his elc, he'd be in the final year of his RFA deal this season had he been signed for 8. Doubt he'd get 10+ this off-season.
(I'm not sure he would've or could've, just an example.)

 

[Ulysses31]

6 something mil for 8 years I think would be a slight hometown discount. Look was Drai got paid.

 

[dragonballgtz]

It would help the Red Wings pockets more if he signs long term now. But it will help Larkins pockets if he signs a bridge deal.

If I was Larkin I would only sign a 4 year contract at this point since the CBA expires in 2022.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Hockeywriters are saying that Larkin could get 8 years $52 million $6.5 million AAV that's pretty much my thinking as well.

 

[Reddwit]

Right, that's how that works. You give out a contract now that is majority RFA years, because RFA years are cheaper than UFA years. Bridge contract just means you are paying for more UFA years on the next contract.

Yeah, just like I was saying. Except that those UFA years are far more expensive after a player is done with his bridge. What was the purpose of this contracts 101 diversion again?

Fact: We will save money against Dylan’s value for 2 years with a bridge. (But what are we saving that money for again?)

Fact: Buying up UFA years is more expensive than RFA years.

Fact: UFA years for two-way, top 6 centers are even more expensive than most other players in the same contract situation.

Educated opinion: We’re in a much better situation and save more money in the long run by locking up the kid now.

 

[Reddwit]

It would help the Red Wings pockets more if he signs long term now. But it will help Larkins pockets if he signs a bridge deal.

If I was Larkin I would only sign a 4 year contract at this point since the CBA expires in 2022.

If the CBA expires and has to be re-negotiated, the cap is likely to go down and the remedy is likely compliance buyouts. If Larkin puts himself in that situation, he’s looking at a smaller long term AAV under a lower cap. Not a good strategy.

 

[Reddwit]

Hockeywriters are saying that Larkin could get 8 years $52 million $6.5 million AAV that's pretty much my thinking as well.

That would be a solid deal. Like I said, the kid could be nothing more than a 50 point player at the end of a potential bridge and the market would say he’s still worth that.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

That would be a solid deal. Like I said, the kid could be nothing more than a 50 point player at the end of a potential bridge and the market would say he’s still worth that.

Exactly all the more reason to get him locked up long term at lesser money, Then give him a 2 year bridge deal and if he puts up solid numbers could cost us a lot more down the road.

 

[obey86]

What do you guys see Larkin as at his peak?

It's amazing that he's currently our best player and is on pace for 69 points on a terrible team that has trouble scoring.

2 assists away from being in the top 10 among forwards in assists. Prior to this season, who would have thought that was even remotely possible?

All while PLAYING CENTER, being defensively responsible, and winning > 50% of his face-offs.

 

[Leronziia]

Remarkable season thus far.

Think his ceiling in a successful team is just shy/pushing PPG.

I'm hoping that his peak years will be consistent 60-70 points.