Dylan Larkin looks good so far

Frk It

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What # on Salary are you thinking Frk It?

If we go max term, that is 8 years with a 5 RFA/3UFA split.

If you look at comp's from the last few years who were a similar age and got 7-8 year deals, your pool of comp's is kind of small.

You have basically RNH, Ehlers, Scheifele, Monahan, Landeskog, and Mackinnon.

All of these guys got between 5.5 mil - 6.3 million. The guys who got more than 6 mil all had a better track record than Larkin does at the moment.

I would guess 8 years x ~6.00 million for Larkin if we were to go max term.

Ehlers is the best comp for him. Ehlers had 102 pts in 154 games, for .66 PPG. Larkin is currently at .58 PPG. But with Ehlers they went 7 years as opposed to 8. That extra year of UFA, plus the fact that Larkin plays center probably off sets that and puts them at about an equal cap hit.
 

Reddwit

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If we go max term, that is 8 years with a 5 RFA/3UFA split.

If you look at comp's from the last few years who were a similar age and got 7-8 year deals, your pool of comp's is kind of small.

You have basically RNH, Ehlers, Scheifele, Monahan, Landeskog, and Mackinnon.

All of these guys got between 5.5 mil - 6.3 million. The guys who got more than 6 mil all had a better track record than Larkin does at the moment.

I would guess 8 years x ~6.00 million for Larkin if we were to go max term.

Ehlers is the best comp for him. Ehlers had 102 pts in 154 games, for .66 PPG. Larkin is currently at .58 PPG. But with Ehlers they went 7 years as opposed to 8. That extra year of UFA, plus the fact that Larkin plays center probably off sets that and puts them at about an equal cap hit.

I don’t know. We basically have Larkin and nothing else to write home about. All those other orgs had good pieces in place when they signed those guys. There’s really nothing Detroit can point to other than hypotheticals about getting talent in here. This could be a long road for Larkin. I think that’ll be worth some money to Larkin’s camp. I’ll be shocked if he gets less than $7M but I honestly don’t care. He’s worth every penny in a market that has forever valued character, leadership, and North American-ness.
 

Frk It

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I don’t know. We basically have Larkin and nothing else to write home about. All those other orgs had good pieces in place when they signed those guys. There’s really nothing Detroit can point to other than hypotheticals about getting talent in here. This could be a long road for Larkin. I think that’ll be worth some money to Larkin’s camp. I’ll be shocked if he gets less than $7M but I honestly don’t care. He’s worth every penny in a market that has forever valued character, leadership, and North American-ness.

You have a lot of leverage in RFA negotiations to compare your guy with other RFA's. I would bet a lot of money he doesn't get over 6.5 million. You don't just pay players more because you are a bad team.

And while yes, people will say b-b-but Helm/Abdelkaer... those guys were getting 100% UFA deals. Holland has generally pretty good with the RFA's. It's an easier negotiation.
 

WingsMJN2965

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Why? It is in line with the comps. That's how RFA negotiations work.

RNH and Landeskog's deals are four years old. The more recent ones have eclipsed $6M due to cap inflation. And with the cap hike this year, I'd say Larkin around $6.5M x 8 is the deal Detroit wants. $6M would be an absolute steal.
 

Frk It

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RNH and Landeskog's deals are four years old. The more recent ones have eclipsed $6M due to cap inflation. And with the cap hike this year, I'd say Larkin around $6.5M x 8 is the deal Detroit wants. $6M would be an absolute steal.

Fine, throw those out. What's his case to get more than Scheifele did? There isn't one.
 

Ezekial

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RNH and Landeskog's deals are four years old. The more recent ones have eclipsed $6M due to cap inflation. And with the cap hike this year, I'd say Larkin around $6.5M x 8 is the deal Detroit wants. $6M would be an absolute steal.
MacKinnon and MS deals are 2 years old, Scheifele took up more UFA than Dylan will and MacKinnon had 90 points in 134 games the 2 seasons leading up to his contract. Larkin has 95 in 162. MacKinnon's rookie year blew Larkin's out of the water too.

I fully expect 8x6 mils, adjusted for inflation.
 

WingsMJN2965

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Fine, throw those out. What's his case to get more than Scheifele did? There isn't one.

If you want to equate him 100% to Scheifele, the cap inflation rate to get Larkin to $6.5M would only take a cap raise of $2.5M. Last numbers I heard was that it could go up $5M to $7M.

You also have to take negotiating standpoints into account. Winnipeg without Scheifele is still a pretty good team. Detroit with Larkin is a disaster. Without him they'd be a total dumpster fire.
 

Frk It

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If you want to equate him 100% to Scheifele, the cap inflation rate to get Larkin to $6.5M would only take a cap raise of $2.5M. Last numbers I heard was that it could go up $5M to $7M.

Cap going up 5 or 7 m would be an increase of 7-9%. 8% of 6 million dollars is 480,000.

So your inflation would maybe get Larkin an extra ~500K.

He does not have better numbers than Scheifele or Monahan did. Unless Holland is just feeling overly generous, he should not be getting more money than they did. He doesn't really have much of a leg to stand on to pull that off.

PPG at time of new contract

Monahan - .67 PPG
Scheifele - .63 PPG
Larkin - .58 PPG
 

WingsMJN2965

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Cap going up 5 or 7 m would be an increase of 7-9%. 8% of 6 million dollars is 480,000.

So your inflation would maybe get Larkin an extra ~500K.

He does not have better numbers than Scheifele or Monahan did. Unless Holland is just feeling overly generous, he should not be getting more money than they did. He doesn't really have much of a leg to stand on to pull that off.

PPG at time of new contract

Monahan - .67 PPG
Scheifele - .63 PPG
Larkin - .58 PPG

Scheifele was signed under a $73M cap. $6.125M/$73M = .0839% of the cap. .0839% x $80M = $6.7M. (Rounded down)

Don't get me wrong, I'd be ecstatic if we got Larkin for 8 x $6M and don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. I just think it's ambitious to set that as the likely scenario and that you might be setting yourself up for disappointment.

And realistically, Larkin at 8 x $6.5M shouldn't be disappointing at all. That's still a great deal.
 

Frk It

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Scheifele was signed under a $73M cap. $6.125M/$73M = .0839% of the cap. .0839% x $80M = $6.7M. (Rounded down)

Don't get me wrong, I'd be ecstatic if we got Larkin for 8 x $6M and don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. I just think it's ambitious to set that as the likely scenario and that you might be setting yourself up for disappointment.

And realistically, Larkin at 8 x $6.5M shouldn't be disappointing at all. That's still a great deal.

I don't think inflation of the cap will factor in as much as you think. I have usually been within 250K predicting RFA deals in the past, for whatever that's worth.

I see no scenario where he gets more than 6.5 million. And I think he gets closer to 6 than 6.5 million. (if they go max term)

We will see :)
 

Ezekial

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Scheifele was signed under a $73M cap. $6.125M/$73M = .0839% of the cap. .0839% x $80M = $6.7M. (Rounded down)

Don't get me wrong, I'd be ecstatic if we got Larkin for 8 x $6M and don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. I just think it's ambitious to set that as the likely scenario and that you might be setting yourself up for disappointment.

And realistically, Larkin at 8 x $6.5M shouldn't be disappointing at all. That's still a great deal.
Again, 2 more years of UFA were bought for Scheifele.
 

WingsMJN2965

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I don't think inflation of the cap will factor in as much as you think. I have usually been within 250K predicting RFA deals in the past, for whatever that's worth.

I see no scenario where he gets more than 6.5 million. And I think he gets closer to 6 than 6.5 million. (if they go max term)

We will see :)

Maybe. Like I said, I'd be happy with 8 x $6.5M so 8 x $6M I'd be ecstatic.

Holland hasn't been the greatest with signing deals lately, but with stars and RFA's he still seems to do pretty well.

I see Larkin as already being at or just under ROR's level though. You lock him in at 8 years at either of those rates and he can solidify himself as a solid 1C (Which is not at all guaranteed) and you've got a steal on your hands.
 

Frk It

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Again, 2 more years of UFA were bought for Scheifele.

Oh wow, that's a great point. I thought Scheifele was the same age. That helps our cause even more. Larkin will be 22 when we negotiate this deal though, so it is really only 1 year of a difference I believe, since Scheifele was 23 when he signed his.
 

Ezekial

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Oh wow, that's a great point. I thought Scheifele was the same age. That helps our cause even more. Larkin will be 22 when we negotiate this deal though, so it is really only 1 year of a difference I believe, since Scheifele was 23 when he signed his.
Ah yea, will be 22. Should've stayed vague like the first post :laugh:
 

Frk It

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Ah yea, will be 22. Should've stayed vague like the first post :laugh:

Regardless, that was a good catch dude. So Scheifele got 6.175 million with better numbers AND with an extra UFA year bought in his deal.
 
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WingsMJN2965

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Regardless, that was a good catch dude. So Scheifele got 6.175 million with better numbers AND with an extra UFA year bought in his deal.

Fair enough on the UFA part, but better numbers isn't exactly accurate. Larkin didn't exactly have a great season at 20, but when you consider his rookie year and this most recent year, that can easily be attributed to growing pains. At 21 he had a much better season than Scheifele at the same age. And I can only say this by looking at statistics, but he also seemed to be more defensively responsible and relied on.

Not arguing who's the better player, but Larkin at the age of 21 definitely seems to be better than Scheifele was at the age of 21.
 

Frk It

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Fair enough on the UFA part, but better numbers isn't exactly accurate. Larkin didn't exactly have a great season at 20, but when you consider his rookie year and this most recent year, that can easily be attributed to growing pains. At 21 he had a much better season than Scheifele at the same age. And I can only say this by looking at statistics, but he also seemed to be more defensively responsible and relied on.

Not arguing who's the better player, but Larkin at the age of 21 definitely seems to be better than Scheifele was at the age of 21.

Scheifele had a 29 goal season prior to getting his new contract and had a better career PPG than Larkin currently does. He had better numbers than Larkin does right now pretty much any way you want to look at it.
 
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WingsMJN2965

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Scheifele had a 29 goal season prior to getting his new contract and had a better career PPG than Larkin currently does. He had better numbers than Larkin does right now pretty much any way you want to look at it.

I understand that. I'm talking about numbers at the same age.
 
Sep 28, 2017
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Gotta give Larks a shoutout again. Dropped 25 minutes last night against elite competition and came out on top.

I think one of the biggest reasons we are competitive this season is that he has had very few bad games. Just brings it every night.

He's averaged 4.5 SOG in his last 10 and only 2 minus games. Let's hope he can keep it up and start potting this chances.
 

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