Rumor: Dumba deal in the works... several teams interested

[AKL]

It was a fluke. He needs to show that the year before wasn't.

Why is your opinion on Dumba so negative?

He was on a very clear upward trajectory every season of his career, even the one he got injured during. This year was the first season he didn't improve significantly.

What evidence is there that his 50 point season and the 32 games the following year were a fluke?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Why is your opinion on Dumba so negative?

He was on a very clear upward trajectory every season of his career, even the one he got injured during. This year was the first season he didn't improve significantly.

What evidence is there that his 50 point season and the 32 games the following year were a fluke?

First, I don't know if I'd classify it as 'negative'. I'm trying to be realistic and apply the same rules that we apply to players that other fanbases try to "sell" us.

I don't think that it's negative to point out that it's extremely highly likely that he wasn't going to shoot 14% for the rest of the season. I think it's pretty dangerous to extrapolate 32 games over a full season. There's a number that you have to get there in order to do it with some sort of confidence, and 32 games is probably only halfway there, IMO.

But to answer the question, it's because that this year was a tremendous letdown from what I expected, with with really no excuse for it. I actually agree with your upward trajectory point and have even used that before. But 2019-20 happened and it counts too.

If somebody tried to use the 'upward trajectory + look at this season 3 years ago + look at these 32 games 2 years + don't pay attention to this most recent down year' to pitch us a center, I think quite a bit of us, including you, would analyze it extremely critically.

 

[AKL]

First, I don't know if I'd classify it as 'negative'. I'm trying to be realistic and apply the same rules that we apply to players that other fanbases try to "sell" us.

I don't think that it's negative to point out that it's extremely highly likely that he wasn't going to shoot 14% for the rest of the season. I think it's pretty dangerous to extrapolate 32 games over a full season. There's a number that you have to get there in order to do it with some sort of confidence, and 32 games is probably only halfway there, IMO.

But to answer the question, it's because that this year was a tremendous letdown from what I expected, with with really no excuse for it. I actually agree with your upward trajectory point and have even used that before. But 2019-20 happened and it counts too.

If somebody tried to use the 'upward trajectory + look at this season 3 years ago + look at these 32 games 2 years + don't pay attention to this most recent down year' to pitch us a center, I think quite a bit of us, including you, would analyze it extremely critically.

It's not that I'm trying to write off this season entirely. The fact is if he put up 50 points this season, he'd be in the conversation for players much, much better than Monahan, RNH, Danault. The fact that these players are being discussed as potential targets is proof his value is down.

My point is I'm not ready to throw away his 50 point season, and the 32 games he played the following season, because of one down season. He should be valued as a RD that can put up 50 points again, not a 30 point RD. If we can't get the value for him we should be getting, we should be keeping him until he rebounds or until he has another 30 point season.

 

[Bazeek]

It's not that I'm trying to write off this season entirely. The fact is if he put up 50 points this season, he'd be in the conversation for players much, much better than Monahan, RNH, Danault. The fact that these players are being discussed as potential targets is proof his value is down.

My point is I'm not ready to throw away his 50 point season, and the 32 games he played the following season, because of one down season. He should be valued as a RD that can put up 50 points again, not a 30 point RD. If we can't get the value for him we should be getting, we should be keeping him until he rebounds or until he has another 30 point season.

The situation reminds me very much of the place we were at with Zucker prior to being traded. Lots of threads, lots of wondering why any team would give up much for an overpaid 40 point winger, lots of arguing over why he was really somewhere between that and a regular 30-30 guy.

Dumba's last season is going to affect his value, especially since it came in the wake of a major injury. But even after a disappointing season I can't say I'm all that worried about his play going forward: I think he'll consistently be one of the league's better blueline goal scorers and get back to that 45-55 point range, along with all the other stuff that makes him fun to watch. Whether actual GMs see it that way or not... I guess we'll see sometime in the next few weeks.

 

[AKL]

The situation reminds me very much of the place we were at with Zucker prior to being traded. Lots of threads, lots of wondering why any team would give up much for an overpaid 40 point winger, lots of arguing over why he was really somewhere between that and a regular 30-30 guy.

Dumba's last season is going to affect his value, especially since it came in the wake of a major injury. But even after a disappointing season I can't say I'm all that worried about his play going forward: I think he'll consistently be one of the league's better blueline goal scorers and get back to that 45-55 point range, along with all the other stuff that makes him fun to watch. Whether actual GMs see it that way or not... I guess we'll see sometime in the next few weeks.

Luckily, I don't think actual GM's are so quick to downplay Dumba's value based on this one season. Their view is probably more in line with yours than someone who would call him a 30 point defenseman. If that's how GM's viewed him, there wouldn't be so many teams interested in him at 6M before the expansion draft.

 

[Jeti]

They don't want Danault or Domi either don't feel bad. I think wild fans know that there only trade chip is Dumba and are desperate trying to get that number one center that is no where to be found. I think there best chance is to try and get as many 1st round draft picks as possible and rebuild.

Habs -Laine
Jets - Dumba and Danault/Domi
Wild - 1st(Habs) 1st (Jets)+ more picks most likely from the habs

as a base and add more to whatever team needs to add more but it fills a need for all three teams as the Jets get there 2nd line center and Dman and habs get there winger and wild get a few 1st round picks and most likely more picks where they can draft as many players as possible in a deep draft.

Also I know this is a pipe dream but its fun to dream

This is awful for Winnipeg. Even if you took out their first there's no chance they do it. Dumba isn't the type or quality of defenseman the Jets need, he's more of a Myers replacement than a Byfuglien or Trouba replacement. Danault is a good 2C but too close to UFA. Neither starts the conversation for a young elite player. Nevermind also adding the highest pick

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It's not that I'm trying to write off this season entirely. The fact is if he put up 50 points this season, he'd be in the conversation for players much, much better than Monahan, RNH, Danault. The fact that these players are being discussed as potential targets is proof his value is down.

My point is I'm not ready to throw away his 50 point season, and the 32 games he played the following season, because of one down season. He should be valued as a RD that can put up 50 points again, not a 30 point RD. If we can't get the value for him we should be getting, we should be keeping him until he rebounds or until he has another 30 point season.

No offense, but this sounds like Montreal fans making their Domi argument.

 

[AKL]

No offense, but this sounds like Montreal fans making their Domi argument.

The Montreal argument that Domi is a 70 point center but they're trading him because he's not as good a center as their 40 point center or their 8 point center?

Hell, I don't even see Montreal fans arguing that he's a 70 point center anymore.

It's an entirely different situation.

 

[Siludin]

You don't honestly think that's a quality offer?

I think the Wild are a good trading partner for the Canucks - lots of ways a deal can shake out. I think Gaudette is the best centre the Canucks can offer the Wild in any trade, and he has to be part of the deal or else what are the Wild even doing talking to the Canucks. Beyond that, the Wild will want a prospect defenseman with NHL potential coming back the other way to backfill the depth chart. Whether that's a Brogan Rafferty, Jett Woo, Olli Juolevi would be I guess up for negotiation. Do the Wild ask for Podkolzin too?DiPietro? Next year's 1st round pick? How valuable is Dumba here?

 

[AKL]

I think the Wild are a good trading partner for the Canucks - lots of ways a deal can shake out. I think Gaudette is the best centre the Canucks can offer the Wild in any trade, and he has to be part of the deal or else what are the Wild even doing talking to the Canucks. Beyond that, the Wild will want a prospect defenseman with NHL potential coming back the other way to backfill the depth chart. Whether that's a Brogan Rafferty, Jett Woo, Olli Juolevi would be I guess up for negotiation. Do the Wild ask for Podkolzin too?DiPietro? Next year's 1st round pick? How valuable is Dumba here?

The Wild have no need for Vancouver's defensemen.

Gaudette and Podkolzin? Gaudette and a 1st? Gaudette and Demko? It's a good start.

 

[CherryToke]

You aint getting Podkolzin

 

[AKL]

You aint getting Podkolzin

Frankly that would be my preference. He's a very overrated prospect.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The Montreal argument that Domi is a 70 point center but they're trading him because he's not as good a center as their 40 point center or their 8 point center?

Hell, I don't even see Montreal fans arguing that he's a 70 point center anymore.

It's an entirely different situation.

20 year old 40 point center. On pace for 47. Let’s not be disingenuous, if we had one of those we’d be effing ecstatic.

JK is a recent top 3 pick that they want to develop as a center. Danault is an established 50+ point Selke-ish center. It’s a numbers game, awfully similar to our RD position.

It’s not an entirely different situation.

 

[BB06]

Yeah I’m not trading our best prospect for a guy who’s the 4th best Dmen on his team. Have a feeling you’ll be getting Tyson Barrie 2.0 when he isn’t surrounded by Suter/Brodin/spurgeon and is also coming of a extremely poor year. In all honesty unless he comes cheap I think the team that trades for him is gonna regret it.

 

[AKL]

20 year old 40 point center. On pace for 47. Let’s not be disingenuous, if we had one of those we’d be effing ecstatic.

JK is a recent top 3 pick that they want to develop as a center. Danault is an established 50+ point Selke-ish center. It’s a numbers game, awfully similar to our RD position.

It’s not an entirely different situation.

The reason we're moving Dumba is to address a much bigger need, not to make room for guys who haven't proven to be as good as he supposedly is.

 

[CherryToke]

Frankly that would be my preference. He's a very overrated prospect.

Maybe but he's the type of hard nosed winger the Canucks need to go along with their skilled forwards

 

[thadd]

Pagnotta is a very reliable source that has broken many a hockey trade.

That said, he just says Vancouver is one of SEVERAL teams interested. Makes sense that Dumba is a hot fish on the market. He plays a coveted position and plays it well.

Yeah man I'm not suggesting that every team would love to have Dumba on their team, I just don't see how Vancouver can make such a trade without putting themselves in a bad situation capwise when it's time to resign Petterson (8M per year would be home discount)and Hughes. (I think he's worth even more than Petterson.)

 

[Canucks LB]

Frankly that would be my preference. He's a very overrated prospect.

What makes him overrated?
Guy is playing 4th line minutes in KHL, yet continues to look really good.
As soon as he comes over after this year, guy is gonna play either on the Canucks third line or 1st line minutes in Utica

 

[strattonius]

Frankly that would be my preference. He's a very overrated prospect.

Interesting that your least favorite piece is Vancouver's most valuable...

Bunch of Canuck fans that are watching him like a hawk feel the opposite.

In any case I really doubt he's on the table he fills a team need moving forward.

 

[Bounces R Way]

It's not that I'm trying to write off this season entirely. The fact is if he put up 50 points this season, he'd be in the conversation for players much, much better than Monahan, RNH, Danault. The fact that these players are being discussed as potential targets is proof his value is down.

My point is I'm not ready to throw away his 50 point season, and the 32 games he played the following season, because of one down season. He should be valued as a RD that can put up 50 points again, not a 30 point RD. If we can't get the value for him we should be getting, we should be keeping him until he rebounds or until he has another 30 point season.

Would he really though? And is it actually? Dumba's p/82 pace over his career is 30. He's 26 and not likely to discover some untapped pool of potential. Maybe he gets more refined especially defensively but it's more likely he more or less is what he is at this point.

Going to have to agree with the other posters saying it would take at least a semi-significant add to land Monahan or RNH. He shoots right and happens to do it pretty well so Guerin has got that going for him.

 

[Cancuks]

Dumba is not the kind of dman we need. Need a younger less injury prone version of Chris Tanev to play alongside Hughes. We're stuck with Myers on the 2nd pair because of Dim Jim. I remember last year saying to save his cap to pursue Pietrangelo and was laughed at saying he would be re-signed already.

 

[Habs Halifax]

- Both Dumba and Danault going to the Jets
- Laine to the Habs
- 16th, 10th, and Fleury going to the Wild

Wild draft Quinn, Lundell, and one of Guhle or Schneider. Trade for Bozak?

 

[DeagleJenkins]

- Both Dumba and Danault going to the Jets
- Laine to the Habs
- 16th, 10th, and Fleury going to the Wild

Wild draft Quinn, Lundell, and one of Guhle or Schneider. Trade for Bozak?

I actually like this trade. 9-10-16 in this draft could be very good for us

 

[Habs Halifax]

I actually like this trade. 9-10-16 in this draft could be very good for us

Figured. It sets you up well for the future.

Would the Jets be happy with Dumba and Danault (with extension at $6M AAV lets say) for Laine and the 10th? Probably not right? Habs probably have to add Caufield but then I think it's too much for the Habs.. Danault, Caufield, 16th for Laine.

Workable if the Jets are interested in both Dumba and Danault.

 

[Chayos]

- Both Dumba and Danault going to the Jets
- Laine to the Habs
- 16th, 10th, and Fleury going to the Wild

Wild draft Quinn, Lundell, and one of Guhle or Schneider. Trade for Bozak?

Why would Winnipeg trade Laine and the 10th for Danaultand Dumba. They would not trade just Laine for that.