Speculation: Duchene trade looking back

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Paladin2799

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Jul 15, 2009
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Turris looked pretty bad these playoffs no doubt, i was surprised how invisible he looked in the avs series. I’d give him another season though, he’s been pretty consistent for awhile now with his production. If he continues his poor play though it could look pretty bad for Nashville, as Girard has looked really good early on.

To be fair, most people pegged Duchene as a 5-10 point upgrade on Turris, which is exactly what happened this year. Duchene also has averaged 55 points his last 4 years (over 300 games). Usually forwards don’t increase their production after age 28 so it might be fair to say Duchene is just a 50-60 point player now, which isnt good enough in my opinion if Ottawa wants to win this trade. With Duchene it’s strange, he looks better than his stats show and always has, after 4 seasons of playing at a 55 point pace though it might be time to call a spade a spade. The good thing about Duchene is that I think he will age well, so even if he’s only a 50 point player now, he should be one for awhile.

Players rarely step out of those point totals except when they really have sheer chemistry with their linemates.

Great example is Kulemin from Toronto when he played with grabovski. He scored something near 30 goals that year, and then reverted back to his normal totals.
 

lifelonghockeyfan

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Dec 18, 2015
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Can understand why Nashville made the deal, they were Cup contenders and needed a centre. But Ottawa made the big mistake. Turris for Duschene about an even trade, but the Sens are giving up a lottery pick for one effect one year of Duschene. Again if you're Cup contender and giving up the 27th pick is one thing, but a top ten.....dreadful.
 

topshelf15

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May 5, 2009
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Can understand why Nashville made the deal, they were Cup contenders and needed a centre. But Ottawa made the big mistake. Turris for Duschene about an even trade, but the Sens are giving up a lottery pick for one effect one year of Duschene. Again if you're Cup contender and giving up the 27th pick is one thing, but a top ten.....dreadful.
At the time we made the deal we were in a playoff spot ,we were never interested in resigning Turris,and needed a replacement...Sakic knew this and we paid his price...The bright side is we kept some of our best prospects out of the deal,and we are picking 4OA
 

Martin Skoula

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Oct 18, 2017
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Players rarely step out of those point totals except when they really have sheer chemistry with their linemates.

Great example is Kulemin from Toronto when he played with grabovski. He scored something near 30 goals that year, and then reverted back to his normal totals.

Kulemin had some external circumstances, the plane crash that killed his mentor really had a visible impact on his game. He stopped shooting as much and lost any sense of aggression he had before. I think Gleason knocked him out the same season too, played more timid after that for sure. Might not have been a 30/30 guy going forward but he should have easily put up 20/20+
 

lifelonghockeyfan

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At the time we made the deal we were in a playoff spot ,we were never interested in resigning Turris,and needed a replacement...Sakic knew this and we paid his price...The bright side is we kept some of our best prospects out of the deal,and we are picking 4OA

The best thing picking 4th overall? That's close to the worse thing. And this Ottawa management will be afraid to trade Karlsson for futures because they know the "Avs" pick might be closer to # 1 than # 10. I don't understand the logic about why the Sens needed a replacement for Turris during the season. Play out your season with one of your best players, and if he walks as UFA so what, you had that player for a playoff run. And if you were out of the playoffs in February, trade Turris (think what they got for Brassard)
 

topshelf15

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May 5, 2009
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The best thing picking 4th overall? That's close to the worse thing. And this Ottawa management will be afraid to trade Karlsson for futures because they know the "Avs" pick might be closer to # 1 than # 10. I don't understand the logic about why the Sens needed a replacement for Turris during the season. Play out your season with one of your best players, and if he walks as UFA so what, you had that player for a playoff run. And if you were out of the playoffs in February, trade Turris (think what they got for Brassard)
It the best thing that has come out of a season where everything that could have went wrong did..Ottawa was not a healthy team at all this season
 

tucker3434

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While I’d love for this to be our Kessel to Toronto trade, it seems like it happens pretty rarely. I remember when we traded a 1st for Varly Caps fans were telling us thanks for the lotto pick. It ended up being 11. They drafted Forsberg with it, so it would’ve still been great for them had they not traded him for Erat. But I guess they aren’t complaining now.

The big difference between now and then is that all non playoff teams are now in the lotto. So even if they do finish around 21, we still get 3% of the balls, and as we saw in 2017, anything is possible.

To keep my expectations in check, I’m going to assume that pick is 15OA. If that’s what happens, I think Dorian is wiping a bit of sweat from his brow and thanking god that he dodged a bullet. Sakic is content, but not exactly thrilled.
 
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THall4

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Feb 25, 2014
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Can understand why Nashville made the deal, they were Cup contenders and needed a centre. But Ottawa made the big mistake. Turris for Duschene about an even trade, but the Sens are giving up a lottery pick for one effect one year of Duschene. Again if you're Cup contender and giving up the 27th pick is one thing, but a top ten.....dreadful.
Sens were EC finalists the season before.

The moves from both Nashville and Ottawa made complete sense. They just ended up getting the shat on their faces at different times of the season. Ottawa was pretty much right away..Nashville's came when it all really counted..the playoffs.

In the end, the Avs made out like bandits.

Also, Ottawa is keeping their lottery pick...no guarantees on the pick being a lottery pick next year...but seems likely.
 

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Matt Duchene reached for comment:

arrested-development-huge-mistake.gif



Seriously though, this does open up both the Senators and Duchene for a deadline trade as they can play the "circumstances have changed card".
 

Hasbro

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Avalanche traded down with Nashville's 2nd round pick adding another branch to the trade. Pittsburgh trade the 3/64th and 5/146th pick for the 2/58th. The Avalanche drafted goalie Justus Annunen with 64th.
 

Do Make Say Think

& Yet & Yet
Jun 26, 2007
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Matt Duchene reached for comment:

arrested-development-huge-mistake.gif



Seriously though, this does open up both the Senators and Duchene for a deadline trade as they can play the "circumstances have changed card".

How did he make a huge mistake?

He wanted out and we were the only one willing to pay the price. We showed a ton of faith in him.

I expect he'll re-sign.
 

The Red Helmet

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Dec 19, 2007
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How did he make a huge mistake?

He wanted out and we were the only one willing to pay the price. We showed a ton of faith in him.

I expect he'll re-sign.
Sorry but Ottawa has to be the worst destination in hockey right now. Not because of the city or the fans but because of the owner. If I was a good player in the NHL, there is absolutely no way I would sign or re-sign with Ottawa. I really hope Sens stay in Ottawa, I like the team and would love to see some Sabres/Sens playoff series in the future. That said, I feel like it is no man's land until Melnyk is gone if that ever happens. It's a shame really. I wish the NHL could step in and get rid of embarrassing owners like this one.
 

Do Make Say Think

& Yet & Yet
Jun 26, 2007
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Sorry but Ottawa has to be the worst destination in hockey right now. Not because of the city or the fans but because of the owner. If I was a good player in the NHL, there is absolutely no way I would sign or re-sign with Ottawa. I really hope Sens stay in Ottawa, I like the team and would love to see some Sabres/Sens playoff series in the future. That said, I feel like it is no man's land until Melnyk is gone if that ever happens. It's a shame really. I wish the NHL could step in and get rid of embarrassing owners like this one.

I think Ottawa is in far better shape than people want to admit. Now granted, this is a critical off-season but if we hold on to Stone, Duchene and Stone all while having good prospects coming through (one thing that cannot be denied is how good the Senators are at drafting, not amazing mind you, but good) then I wouldn't be surprised if we had a strong bounce back season.

Lots of teams bounce back after a poor year. It isn't a guarantee but people think the Sens are down and out and that simply is not true right now.

If Karlsson is traded then yeah, things look very grim unless the return is a homerun. Erik Karlsson is probably the best player in the NHL when healthy, it isn't inconceivable that if we do trade him a bidding war between two teams could net us a really strong return.
 

AvsGuy

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How did he make a huge mistake?

He requested a trade to a playoff contender without realizing he was already on one. The Sens have since become a tire fire, he’s honestly got to be gauging just how big a part in that he wants.

I don’t see Duchene staying in Ottawa, which would make the trade that much more hilarious.
 

BB88

Registered User
Jan 19, 2015
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This trade has all kinds of potential to turn into one of the worst trades we've seen in awhile.

Really have to give respect to Sakic and what he has done this season, things are looking good in Colorado.
 

BB88

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Jan 19, 2015
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I think Ottawa is in far better shape than people want to admit. Now granted, this is a critical off-season but if we hold on to Stone, Duchene and Stone all while having good prospects coming through (one thing that cannot be denied is how good the Senators are at drafting, not amazing mind you, but good) then I wouldn't be surprised if we had a strong bounce back season.

Lots of teams bounce back after a poor year. It isn't a guarantee but people think the Sens are down and out and that simply is not true right now.

If Karlsson is traded then yeah, things look very grim unless the return is a homerun. Erik Karlsson is probably the best player in the NHL when healthy, it isn't inconceivable that if we do trade him a bidding war between two teams could net us a really strong return.

I'm sorry but the F group looks abysmal after Stone+ Duchene, and they don't even have a 1st rounder for next year.
They've already given up Hoffman+ Brassard from a bad team, the team is a comple mess on top of that.
 

Hmmm

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Feb 26, 2017
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I believe Dutchy will walk or get traded this season, can't see him wanting to stay for a reboot in Ottawa
 
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