Proposal: Duchene to Ottawa

trentmccleary

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And I love how Sens fans want to keep pushing the point that Zibby is fairly close to Duchene. He's not.
You can twist the stats however you want and they will always favor Duchene considerably.

You can compare their first 4 years points per game which is Zibanejad .48, .48, .57, .63 for an average of .54 or approximately 44 points per season in 82 games. Duchene's first 4 years .67, .83, .48, .91 for an average of .72 or 59 points per 82 game season. And the only reason the gap isn't bigger is because of Duchene's 3rd season where he played through a severe injury most of the season and was never right. Not to mention Duchene did all this at a younger age than Zibby as Duchene played in the NHL as an 18 year old. The fact is Duchene is a superior player to Zibby just accept that and move on Sen's fans.

Duchene joined a bottom feeder that had Stastny and nothing else up the middle.

Zibanejad joined a bubble team that had Spezza and Turris up the middle.

And anybody coming out of their drafts would say that Duchene was much more ready for the NHL than Zibanejad. Zibanejad's billing was "raw", "project", etc coming into his draft.

You guys might be right that the difference between a middle pairing guy and Duchene isn't a decent 2nd line center. But the Avs aren't going to trade Duchene for anything short of a young first pairing guy which you don't have available. So basically I guess there is no deal to be had between these two teams.

We make terrible trade partners. I have no idea how this keeps coming up.
 

garyturner3

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I'm not saying it would make sense for either team to make this trade, but the difference between Zibanejad and Duchene would absolutely be a player like Ceci. Don't just look at the numbers. Watch Zibanejad play. Then watch Duchene play. One of those players always leaves you wanting more while the other absolutely controls the game and is getting named to team Canada over some amazing all star caliber players for a reason. In my opinion Zibanejad is not just a step below Duchene, he's multiple steps.
 

SpezDispenser

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Avs dont touch this.


Awful value. An average #2C and a middling 2nd pair Dman for a Top scoring #1 Center?



Ya, no thanks.



EDIT: Also people bringing up the age difference between the two players and all that garbage. Its 2 years of age difference and both players have been in the league for 5 or more years now.


Zibanejad is the player he is, he's not going to develop any further at this point given that we've now seen 3 straight seasons of similar production and play from him. He's a middling #2C and wont be anything more. Just like how Duchene is a middling #1C and we wont see anymore from him.

This is basically all wrong. Soup to nuts. Zibanejad won't develop any further and Ceci is a middling 2nd pairing dman. Excellemt stuff.
 

SpezDispenser

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I'm not saying it would make sense for either team to make this trade, but the difference between Zibanejad and Duchene would absolutely be a player like Ceci. Don't just look at the numbers. Watch Zibanejad play. Then watch Duchene play. One of those players always leaves you wanting more while the other absolutely controls the game and is getting named to team Canada over some amazing all star caliber players for a reason. In my opinion Zibanejad is not just a step below Duchene, he's multiple steps.

I think this post sums it up pretty well.
 

Ziggdiezan

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You can tell a trade has been brought up too often when there are heated debates on the 1st page.
 

Avsblitzkrieg

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Wow, those 8-9 points per season really make a difference for you. To read this, you;d think that Jordan Staal was being offered for Sidney Crosby.



20yo = 33 pts / 69 gp = 0.48
21yo = 46 pts / 80 gp = 0.58
22yo = 51 pts / 81 gp = 0.63

That looks like steady improvement and that doesn't satisfy his Sens fan detractors who think that he could do a lot more if he became more consistent.

IMO, he's a kid who has played on SEL men's teams and then the NHL starting at 18-19 and might have the belief that the older players are the leaders; he's just another guy. It'd be really something if he went into games with the belief that he's Mats Sundin and if he doesn't put the team on his back, they won't win.



Middling? That's pretty generous. The stats seem to say that he'd be just about the worst 1st line center / best 2nd line center.
now let's compare both guys best years. Changes perception don't you think?
 

KevinRedkey

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I expect most of us expect 65-70 points out of Duchene, right?
And probably 50-55 for Zbad?

That's about 30% more offense, so it's not as minimal as some Sens fans are trying to argue.
 

Sens of Anarchy

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I expect most of us expect 65-70 points out of Duchene, right?
And probably 50-55 for Zbad?

That's about 30% more offense, so it's not as minimal as some Sens fans are trying to argue.

Possible based on those projections. Even with virtually no improvement from Zib as above... the difference is still not Cody Ceci.
 

1mjp

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I hear Duchene's name bounced around in a lot of trade rumors. Can somebody explain why Colorado would want to? Thanks in advance.
 
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trentmccleary

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I expect most of us expect 65-70 points out of Duchene, right?
And probably 50-55 for Zbad?

That's about 30% more offense, so it's not as minimal as some Sens fans are trying to argue.

By "most of us", did you mean people who've lived in caves for the past 2 years and missed the fact that he posted 55-59 points over his last two full seasons?

How come the 25yo gets better in your projection, but the 23yo doesn't?

I'm not saying it would make sense for either team to make this trade, but the difference between Zibanejad and Duchene would absolutely be a player like Ceci. Don't just look at the numbers. Watch Zibanejad play. Then watch Duchene play. One of those players always leaves you wanting more while the other absolutely controls the game and is getting named to team Canada over some amazing all star caliber players for a reason. In my opinion Zibanejad is not just a step below Duchene, he's multiple steps.

So to paraphrase...
One controls the game, is giving all he's got and posts 55-60 points.
One leaves you wanting more, has a lot more to give and posts 8-9 points fewer in each of the past two seasons.
 

chet1926

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By "most of us", did you mean people who've lived in caves for the past 2 years and missed the fact that he posted 55-59 points over his last two full seasons?

How come the 25yo gets better in your projection, but the 23yo doesn't?



So to paraphrase...
One controls the game, is giving all he's got and posts 55-60 points.
One leaves you wanting more, has a lot more to give and posts 8-9 points fewer in each of the past two seasons.

I'm not sure why it's so hard for Sens fans to grasp that one guy is a quality 1C and the other is a middle of the decent 2C. Heaven forbid that another team has a player that is better than a guy on your team.

Duchene is better than any center the Sens have. That's not me over-rating, it's just the cold hard facts.

Did you ever stop and say well maybe one guy is drawing the other teams top dmen and shutdown lines every single night when the other guy is getting the opportunity to play against other teams 2nd pairing guys and not best defensive line? I guarantee that if Zibby had to go against other teams top units every single night he wouldn't be having as nice of stats.

And Duchene realistically was more than a few points ahead of Zibby last season. Almost 15 points better if you give Duchene the points he was on pace for while injured. He was on pace for 65 points in a full season. Zibby got to play all but one game and scored 51.
 

NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS

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Don't forget to take into account one of these guys plays with Barrie who is a premier point scoring defender. The other spends most of his shifts with Chris Philips. That more than makes up for the difference.
 

strictlyrandy

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Wait...did I just read that Duchene joined a bottom feeder that only had Stastny?

A) Duchene's most common wing his rookie year was a near retirement Darcy Tucker while playing 3rd line minutes.

B) The Avs made the playoffs Duchene's rookie season (thanks to Duchene).

I mean, the Avs weren't even close to a stacked team, but don't pretend like Duchene was gifted minutes.
 

topshelf15

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Ok ,everybody here understands that Duchene is better, than ZIB.What Col fans dont understand,is actually how good Ceci is .You arent getting him ,as a throw in on any deal involving Duchene.

Ottawa,s main issue last season was him not having a nhl calibre partner,yet still managed.To play solid two way hockey,the kid had 10 goals with virtually no pp time .As he like EK is right handed.

Ceci plus Zib ,is a massive overpayment from us period .
 

topshelf15

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I'm not sure why it's so hard for Sens fans to grasp that one guy is a quality 1C and the other is a middle of the decent 2C. Heaven forbid that another team has a player that is better than a guy on your team.

Duchene is better than any center the Sens have. That's not me over-rating, it's just the cold hard facts.

Did you ever stop and say well maybe one guy is drawing the other teams top dmen and shutdown lines every single night when the other guy is getting the opportunity to play against other teams 2nd pairing guys and not best defensive line? I guarantee that if Zibby had to go against other teams top units every single night he wouldn't be having as nice of stats.

And Duchene realistically was more than a few points ahead of Zibby last season. Almost 15 points better if you give Duchene the points he was on pace for while injured. He was on pace for 65 points in a full season. Zibby got to play all but one game and scored 51.
Your wrong ,Turris is just as good :nod:
 

KevinRedkey

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By "most of us", did you mean people who've lived in caves for the past 2 years and missed the fact that he posted 55-59 points over his last two full seasons?

How come the 25yo gets better in your projection, but the 23yo doesn't?



So to paraphrase...
One controls the game, is giving all he's got and posts 55-60 points.
One leaves you wanting more, has a lot more to give and posts 8-9 points fewer in each of the past two seasons.

No, I meant the unbiased fans, which you clearly aren't.
Make a poll if you want. Lol
 

ATdaisuki

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I'm not sure why it's so hard for Sens fans to grasp that one guy is a quality 1C and the other is a middle of the decent 2C. Heaven forbid that another team has a player that is better than a guy on your team.

Duchene is better than any center the Sens have. That's not me over-rating, it's just the cold hard facts.

Did you ever stop and say well maybe one guy is drawing the other teams top dmen and shutdown lines every single night when the other guy is getting the opportunity to play against other teams 2nd pairing guys and not best defensive line? I guarantee that if Zibby had to go against other teams top units every single night he wouldn't be having as nice of stats.

And Duchene realistically was more than a few points ahead of Zibby last season. Almost 15 points better if you give Duchene the points he was on pace for while injured. He was on pace for 65 points in a full season. Zibby got to play all but one game and scored 51.

staying healthy is important, and until duhene can do that, i have a hard time considering him a quality #1 center. is he a number one center? yes. a quality one? i don't believe so.

is duchene a better center than anyone on our roster? yes. turris is pretty close, but he hasn't proven enough for me to make an argument out of it. i'll just say he was on pace for 68 points before he got a high ankle sprain (which he played through). no telling if he would have made that total, but since we're using paces for duchene :sarcasm: before you try to use turris' injury against one of my main arguments against duchene, when we shut turris down for the year, it ended his senators ironman streak of 307 games, which is five short of the franchise record. he's just not worth the cost for the senators to acquire. he's not enough of an upgrade over turris to make it worthwhile.

after we shut turris down for the year, zibanejad continued to score at a 51 point pace (with the same linemates). duchene is clearly (very clearly) a better player than zibanejad, but one is trending upwards and the other hasn't progressed much since his first few years. who knows what the future holds?

i still think duchene will end up being a better player than zibby, but like i said before, health is important. duchene hasn't played a full, healthy season since the lockout shortened season if you want to count that. since his second season if you don't count it.

zibanejad straight up for duchene has the value tilted in our favour quite a bit. due to other factors though, i'd have to think about it. money, potential, and proper team building (two small centers in the top six, plus the "5'10-on-his-best-days" pageau as the third line center) make me stop and think about it. i'd do it in the end, but it wouldn't be an instant "yes please i already sent the papers to the league so don't worry about it" kind of deal. adding ceci to the deal makes it a no-go. ceci finally got an nhl calibre partner when we got phaneuf and looked really, really good to end the year. no way i make that trade. the value is too far the other way.

like i said in my previous post in this thread, the avs have no reason to trade duchene for those two either. ceci is not what they want or need at this point. they'd be looking to make a johansen for jones type move if they move duchene. they would probably think about it, then give a polite but firm no.

tl;dr:

duchene is better than zibby (obviously), but not that big an upgrade over turris. duchene not healthy enough. zibby has really good potential. ceci too much to give up. trade doesn't make sense for either team. both teams so no for reasons.
 

KPower

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Sens don't have the pieces to land Duchene.

Well they have one but they're not moving him.
 

topshelf15

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Sens don't have the pieces to land Duchene.

Well they have one but they're not moving him.
Col fans are overpricing their players kinda like EDM ,when the time does come for him to be moved there is going alot of tears .And blind hate.:nod:
 

StevenDean

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Would be an vast overpayment by the Senators.

The difference between Zibanejad and Duchene last season was 10 points. Zibanejad is still developing as a player, while Duchene is fully developed. Zibanejad is two years younger, bigger, cheaper, better defensively, more physical and a better fit on the Sens. Duchene is a UFA in two years, and will likely require a 6-7M salary on a long-term deal, while Zibanejad is a cost-controlled asset that will cost significantly less to re-sign. For the money conscious Senators, swapping these two centers very well could result in trading 5+ years of Zibanejad for 3 years of Duchene. For all these reasons I'm not even sure Ottawa would pull the trigger on a one-for-one deal of Zibanejad for Duchene, even though no one will argue Zibanejad is the better player at this point in his career.

A slightly better young RD in Adam Larsson just returned Taylor Hall straight up. Young cost-controlled top 4 RD have tremendous value in this league. With rumors of Duchene being offered for Trouba, a slightly better albeit more expensive D to re-sign, I expect Ceci would almost be able to return Duchene in a one-for-one deal.

So yeah, Avs take this and run. Sens would never offer such a deal, as doing so makes them a far worse team.

Your first paragraph was well thought out but after that it look like you were talking out of your.....uh....you know. Lol.

Ceci is not getting you Duchene. That's a dumb thought. Also no one should use the Hall trade to set a precedent for value. Everyone thinks that was a stupid trade for Edmonton meaning it was an overpayment. Besides think of it on the other side. Is that the value for top LW who can score? Will Ovechkin fetch Tyson Barrie? Why not? If Hall for Larsson is fair then Ovie for Barrie is pretty close. See how dumb I sound there? No one should use that deal as an example for value for any of their players.
 

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