Proposal: Duchene to Dallas

[LT]

Faceoffs don’t lead to more goals though

 

[Satan]

Great. Now do a reality check on how players who win more faceoffs are on the ice for more goals for.

Oh..... there’s no correlation. Interesting.

 

[LT]

Great. Now do a reality check on how players who win more faceoffs are on the ice for more goals for.

Oh..... there’s no correlation. Interesting.

Where can I find that statistic?

 

[Stars27]

To OTT: Jason Robertson, Jake Oettinger and Cond. 2nd 2019 ( 1st 2019 if Duchene re-signs)
To DAL: Matt Duchene

 

[Satan]

Where can I find that statistic?

hockey-graphs.com probably.

The literature is out there. DYR

 

[Rory]

To OTT: Jason Robertson, Jake Oettinger and Cond. 2nd 2019 ( 1st 2019 if Duchene re-signs)
To DAL: Matt Duchene

That seems like more than they got for Karlsson.

 

[LT]

hockey-graphs.com probably.

The literature is out there. DYR

Don’t make claims without proof. My claim is as good as yours for the time being.

 

[Satan]

Don’t make claims without proof. My claim is as good as yours for the time being.

Just because you're ignorant to the fact that there is a ton of lit out there on hockey, doesn't mean mine is unfounded. You posted a youtube video lmao


heres one of many out there- you're a big boy, you can use Google
The relationship between Corsi% and winning faceoffs.

 

[LT]

Just because you're ignorant to the fact that there is a ton of lit out there on hockey, doesn't mean mine is unfounded. You posted a youtube video lmao


heres one of many out there- you're a big boy, you can use Google
The relationship between Corsi% and winning faceoffs.

You actually were the first one to make any kind of unsubstantiated claim about faceoffs. All I said at first was it’d be nice to have a bunch of reliable faceoff men on the team.

If you’re going to make a claim, back it up. If it’s so easy to keep up with the literature and find it via google, why couldn’t you have simply done that in the first place to give your claim more weight and prove your point?

 

[Satan]

You actually were the first one to make any kind of unsubstantiated claim about faceoffs. All I said at first was it’d be nice to have a bunch of reliable faceoff men on the team.

If you’re going to make a claim, back it up. If it’s so easy to keep up with the literature and find it via google, why couldn’t you have simply done that in the first place to give your claim more weight and prove your point?

You've got the link now, go catch up on years of studies.

 

[LT]

You've got the link now, go catch up on years of studies.

And it seems to disprove what you stated. As the author literally writes, the numbers relating to the correlation seem a lot higher than he anticipated.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Is Duchene's value more or less equivalent to Brassards? Point pace over the last 3 seasons favor Duchene by 5 pts (55 vs 50) over 82 gp, Brassard had an extra year at a smaller cap hit though.

If I am making a prediction, Duchene as a rental is probably similar value to what Brassard was with two playoff runs left on his deal. Duchene is the better center, but Brassard wasn't dealt as a rental.

With no extension and the Dallas Stars, at the deadline I'd expect Hintz or Honka, a protected 1st, and maybe Drew Shore if the Sens still are interested in him after picking up Tierney to fill a similar role. If Hintz breaks out as a legit top 6 forward, he's probably not on the table in that scenario.

There could be a GM who really loves Duchene, and offers a boatload without an extension, but that's a long shot. I think the Senators are looking at the typical player+pick+prospect with the only question being how good the prospect they'll attract will be.

 

[Johno]

For this season, probably something more like:

Benn - Spezza - Seguin
Nichushkin - Duchene - Radulov
Janmark - Faksa - Comeau
Shore - Hintz - Pitlick
2 of Ritchie, Dickinson, Smith, and Elie

If Spezza continues to suck or gets injured, move Seguin into the middle and adjust wingers as needed. Seguin-Duchene down the middle would be much preferable, but Spezza is terrible on the wing and isn’t suited for bottom 6 duty. Seguin doesn’t seem to change much on the wing. Hell, he could even continue to take faceoffs for that line, as he’s grown to be great at them.

Benn-Seguin-Nichushkin/Spezza/Seguin
Janmark-Duchene-Radulov

I'm liking the sound of that. So much speed. As mentioned above though Spezza is bad on the wing so probably Seguin would have to move to RW which isn't ideal but I could live with it

I would rather have 7.5mil eating popcorn every game than not playing our #1 center as a center. Spezza can play in the AHL for all I care, we are a much better team with Seguin playing in the middle.

 

[DRW204]

If I am making a prediction, Duchene as a rental is probably similar value to what Brassard was with two playoff runs left on his deal. Duchene is the better center, but Brassard wasn't dealt as a rental.

With no extension and the Dallas Stars, at the deadline I'd expect Hintz or Honka, a protected 1st, and maybe Drew Shore if the Sens still are interested in him after picking up Tierney to fill a similar role. If Hintz breaks out as a legit top 6 forward, he's probably not on the table in that scenario.

There could be a GM who really loves Duchene, and offers a boatload without an extension, but that's a long shot. I think the Senators are looking at the typical player+pick+prospect with the only question being how good the prospect they'll attract will be.

agreed. I think there value is more or less the same. Duchene the slightly better pt production, but Brassard had the extra year at a reasonable cap hit. DAL's '19 1st would likely be > the perceived value of PIT's 1st at the time of the Brassard deal

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

If I am making a prediction, Duchene as a rental is probably similar value to what Brassard was with two playoff runs left on his deal. Duchene is the better center, but Brassard wasn't dealt as a rental.

With no extension and the Dallas Stars, at the deadline I'd expect Hintz or Honka, a protected 1st, and maybe Drew Shore if the Sens still are interested in him after picking up Tierney to fill a similar role. If Hintz breaks out as a legit top 6 forward, he's probably not on the table in that scenario.

There could be a GM who really loves Duchene, and offers a boatload without an extension, but that's a long shot. I think the Senators are looking at the typical player+pick+prospect with the only question being how good the prospect they'll attract will be.

Or you could say as a rental, he had a lot less value then O'Reilly did when he was traded. And all he got was 2 aging 3rd liners, a first, and a prospect. My prediction is if he's traded with no extension ( which is how he'll be traded) he'll pull a late 1st, a ok prospect, and a later draft pick like a 5th.

 

[valente317]

Hintz has really shown up in the preseason, after having a very strong camp last year — he was considered on the NHL bubble even back then.

If it’s a trade for Duchene, unextended, Hintz should be the centerpiece. If it’s for stone, the centerpiece would have to be Robertson, because Hintz will step into a 2C role by the end of this season.

It’s going to be quite comical when all three of the Stars’ prospects rumored to be offered for EK fare better than the actual trade return from SJ. Hintz is clearly more skilled than Tierney and could plausibly outscore him this season, Honka seems to be finding his stride and confidence...Balcers is the only question mark, but Shore already has a proven body of work.

 

[WhatWhat]

If I am making a prediction, Duchene as a rental is probably similar value to what Brassard was with two playoff runs left on his deal. Duchene is the better center, but Brassard wasn't dealt as a rental.

With no extension and the Dallas Stars, at the deadline I'd expect Hintz or Honka, a protected 1st, and maybe Drew Shore if the Sens still are interested in him after picking up Tierney to fill a similar role. If Hintz breaks out as a legit top 6 forward, he's probably not on the table in that scenario.

There could be a GM who really loves Duchene, and offers a boatload without an extension, but that's a long shot. I think the Senators are looking at the typical player+pick+prospect with the only question being how good the prospect they'll attract will be.

Honka will 100% be on the team and by the way he is looking now there is a decent chance by the deadline he will better than the 3rd pairing Dman he is now. Hintz is also more than likely in our top 12. By all accounts I think he is clear cut a top 12 F for us but Nill is often scared to waive players so he might get sent down for that reason but he should be our 4C and someone with every opportunity to move up. I can see Hintz in the deal if Duchene is extended because that solves our 2C problem but there is no way we deal Honka for him.

As to Drew Shore you cant have him. Not because I dont want to move him but because he doesnt play for Dallas. You can take Devin Shore tho

 

[Zrhutch]

The only way I see Hintz moving is if we grab a rental top six winger at the deadline. I think he’s grabbed a spot on the top two lines and would be good as hell with Duchene.

 

[TrillMike]

I think Duchene would thrive in Dallas behind Seguin.

 

[LordJamieBenn]

geterdone

 

[Bettman Returnz]

This makes too much sense! Perfect fit for Duchene and a much needed improvement on stars 2nd line.