Speculation: Dubas on the Leafs defense

Mikenusca

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Mar 30, 2016
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the truth is dubas is likely pretty dang stoked to have a rielly/dermott/sandin/Liljegren top-4 going forward, and more than comfortable with ozzy/rosen/marincin/holl/borgman/Durzi as bottom pair depth going forward, too.

contrary to popular belief, the leafs have plenty of blueline talent.
No disagreement with you there, the problem is the future D isn’t ready and they are, or trying to compete now. Do you waste a year or two for those D men to be NHL ready when you’re a top 10 team in the league. I think you try to win when you can and not wait on what if’s
 
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Gary Nylund

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I think, considering the age of their core, they have all their eggs in a D built on Rielly, Dermott, Liljegren, and Sandin. If it is sufficient depends on the next few years of development of the latter 3, but the Leafs did build this team with that in mind. It just so happens that Matthews, Marner and Nylander being so good so soon accelerated the build.

The problem is that the Leafs are contenders today, the window is wide open and if we need to wait 3 years, then that's basically wasting 3 years of a contention window.

the truth is dubas is likely pretty dang stoked to have a rielly/dermott/sandin/Liljegren top-4 going forward, and more than comfortable with ozzy/rosen/marincin/holl/borgman/Durzi as bottom pair depth going forward, too.

contrary to popular belief, the leafs have plenty of blueline talent.

But again, the problem is that the talent is young and Dmen typically take a long time to develop. If Gardiner goes then that leaves with precisely 1 proven top 4 Dman. I like Dermott but he's not proven yet and even if he does establish himself as a top 4 soon, he's still pretty green and only having two top 4 guys is not a recipe for success.
 

Ciao

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No disagreement with you there, the problem is the future D isn’t ready and they are, or trying to compete now. Do you waste a year or two for those D men to be NHL ready when you’re a top 10 team in the league. I think you try to win when you can and not wait on what if’s
I'd rather the Leafs work on year three of a twenty-five or thirty-year playoff run in which they could win multiple cups than play the short-game of giving up futures for win-now illusions.

I am so sick and tired of seeing the Leafs trade young assets for a handful of beans that I don't really give a damn how long it takes.

I'm with @zeke: I think the Leafs have plenty of assets to improve their defence from within.

I might have to change my username to Pollyanna because I'm a hopeless optimist and I like believing in fairy tales, but when I should stop doing that I would probably stop following this nonsense of a man-child's game altogether anyway.

Just call me Pollyanna.
 

FelixPotvin29

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Oct 21, 2012
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Let’s think outside the box... purely fantasy.

Rielly for Tkachuk (manageable cap hit for 2 years)
Sign Gardiner (keep the asset)
Make a futures trade for Pietrangelo

Tkachuk - Matthews - Nylander

Dermott - Pietrangelo
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Hansey - Ozhiganov
 

shortfuze

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Apr 23, 2007
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In a 80M cap league ? I disagree.

Rosters are capped at 23 contracts, you will have superstars paid a lot, and young rookies at league minimum contracts, but the average comes to just shy of 3.5M per player. If he's a top 4 defenceman he definitely deserves that money. Besides, don't blame players when its the GM's and Owners who started giving out double-digit contracts.
I didn’t blame anyone. But I also don’t agree that top 4 defencemen should be getting 6 million. If top 2 guys are getting upwards of 10 and more you’re crippling your cap if guys on the 2nd pairing are making more then 6
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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Let’s think outside the box... purely fantasy.

Rielly for Tkachuk (manageable cap hit for 2 years)
Sign Gardiner (keep the asset)
Make a futures trade for Pietrangelo

Tkachuk - Matthews - Nylander

Dermott - Pietrangelo
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Hansey - Ozhiganov
I don't think Calgary touches that tbh.
 
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Zegs2sendhelp

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I didn’t blame anyone. But I also don’t agree that top 4 defencemen should be getting 6 million. If top 2 guys are getting upwards of 10 and more you’re crippling your cap if guys on the 2nd pairing are making more then 6
For reference Anaheim
Lindholm(5.8)- Manson(4.1)
Fowler(6.5)- Montour(3.4)- Montour is a bridge deal
------
Rest are under 1.5 mil each
Larsson/Dotchin/Mahura/Sustr etc

I think Gardiner is likely going to ask for the type of contract cam fowler got, hell at least ask for 6+ at least id assume... and a I think fowler/Gardiner are pretty comparable
 

The Podium

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Feb 19, 2010
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The problem is that the Leafs are contenders today, the window is wide open and if we need to wait 3 years, then that's basically wasting 3 years of a contention window.

Contention in the new NHL comes in 2 waves. Prior to the core signing their prime contracts, and a second wave when the salary cap catches up and those contracts become relatively less costly.

Pittsburgh being the most recent example.

Unfortunately for Toronto, that first window used to be longer. But now with players signing their prime contracts out of the ELC, they will likely be more successful during the second wave which is 3-4 years down the line.
 

Gary Nylund

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Contention in the new NHL comes in 2 waves. Prior to the core signing their prime contracts, and a second wave when the salary cap catches up and those contracts become relatively less costly.

Pittsburgh being the most recent example.

Unfortunately for Toronto, that first window used to be longer. But now with players signing their prime contracts out of the ELC, they will likely be more successful during the second wave which is 3-4 years down the line.

This is too dogmatic for my taste, every situation is unique. I get what you're saying and it's true, if we just wait a few years then maybe our D is in fine shape but we're so good now that we should be trying hard to win now IMO.
 

zeke

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Mar 14, 2005
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No disagreement with you there, the problem is the future D isn’t ready and they are, or trying to compete now. Do you waste a year or two for those D men to be NHL ready when you’re a top 10 team in the league. I think you try to win when you can and not wait on what if’s

they're doing great in the AHL right now. pretty damn close to ready imo.
 

shortfuze

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Apr 23, 2007
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For reference Anaheim
Lindholm(5.8)- Manson(4.1)
Fowler(6.5)- Montour(3.4)- Montour is a bridge deal
------
Rest are under 1.5 mil each
Larsson/Dotchin/Mahura/Sustr etc

I think Gardiner is likely going to ask for the type of contract cam fowler got, hell at least ask for 6+ at least id assume... and a I think fowler/Gardiner are pretty comparable
I think because your top pairing isn’t making that much that they could afford to give Fowler 6 million. I guess it all depends on how much the defence is making. I personally don’t think Gardiner is good enough to be a top pairing defenceman but think he is an expensive number 3. Maybe I’m just looking at the numbers all wrong.
 

TML1967

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Jul 20, 2010
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When does Lily get a shot? Or Rosen? If there isn't a viable option out there or if Gards wants more than the leafs can afford.
Lily is out with a high ankle sprain. The way Dubas spoke today, if he hadn't been hurt he would have seen some time this year. Now I'd assume next year.
Rosen is a LHD so he really only gets a call up if Gardiner Reilly or Dermott get hurt. But even IF that happens, Marincin and Holl are just sitting every game.
If Gardiner walks, Dermott goes to second pair and 3rd pair becomes Rosen/ Marincin.
I do think people forget that Marincin Liljgren was one of the best pairs in the AHL last year. Maybe they get a chance next year as well.
 
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Toronto makebeleifs

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So just out of curiosity where would they get a RHD from? I’m sure if it was easy and they didn’t have to over pay they would probably have one.
As
So just out of curiosity where would they get a RHD from? I’m sure if it was easy and they didn’t have to over pay they would probably have one.
As a pure rental for this year only I'd target either petrovic or gudas. They aren't top pairing, but imho they're both better than oz and hainsey rn.
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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I think because your top pairing isn’t making that much that they could afford to give Fowler 6 million. I guess it all depends on how much the defence is making. I personally don’t think Gardiner is good enough to be a top pairing defenceman but think he is an expensive number 3. Maybe I’m just looking at the numbers all wrong.
Um... it was just the timing mostly

Lindholm/Manson/Montour were RFA when they signed those deals, fowler was UFA.... I imagine guys like Lindholm rielly etc are going to get 7-9 range when they sign their next contract. I think fowler earned his deal... and that's what it cost to keep him from checking the market.

Gardiner will prob be in the same situation, heres my #(lets say 6 mil for x amount of years) take it or I test UFA market.
 

powerstuck

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I didn’t blame anyone. But I also don’t agree that top 4 defencemen should be getting 6 million. If top 2 guys are getting upwards of 10 and more you’re crippling your cap if guys on the 2nd pairing are making more then 6

Well sure, but difference between your 1-2 guy player on 1st D line and your 3-4 guy playing on 2nd pairing...given 1-2 will play 25ish minutes and 3-4 will play 20...the difference isn't double money.

You can't always look at guys as 1C, top 2 D etc...if your team is stack, like Leafs are, a guy playing on 3rd line could very easily be at least on 2nd and maybe even on 1st line on some teams.
 

57special

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Another interesting anecdote is that Toronto had Liljegren in their plans for a call-up post-New Year, but he suffered a high-ankle sprain that will likely require him to rehab with the Marlies for longer than expected. There is still a chance he plays with Sweden at the WJC, but he will be a step behind.



As a 19 year old he is playing top pair, top matchup minutes. So far Liljegren's +1.5% Corsi Rel is second among Marlies D-men. He has 56.8% shot attempts overall and was seeing PP1+PK1 time too. He's been an all-situations work horse for them while scoring at a near .50PPG. He would have been a huge answer for their right side. This might force Dubas' hand.

High ankle sprains are awful, and can take a LONG time to fully heal.
 

Knies iT

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High ankle sprains are awful, and can take a LONG time to fully heal.
Absolutely. IIRC Liljegren is going on 2-3 weeks now and will be re-evaluated by Sweden's medical staff in the coming weeks to see if he can clear. Otherwise, he will sit out the WJC and continue to rehab but either way I doubt we see him called up now. Going to take some time for him to get back up to speed. Luckily Sandin has stepped up massively in his absence.
 

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