Ryan English
@ryanenglish_FC
Hey guys!
Been poring through your studies - there are some excellent pieces of work here.
I recently did a statistical analysis of Mackinnon vs Drouin, and did what I could to highlight and separate them.
Heres the text:
Is there anything else that you think I can isolate to help the analysis given these statistics?
Been poring through your studies - there are some excellent pieces of work here.
I recently did a statistical analysis of Mackinnon vs Drouin, and did what I could to highlight and separate them.
Heres the text:
The debate rages on this year amongst junior hockey enthusiasts and Haligonians alike – “Who would you take, Mackinnon or Drouin?â€
The answer is rarely straightforward and quick.
Coming into this year, Mackinnon was heavily favoured as the #1 pick and Drouin, though not an afterthought, got very little respect mostly based on his size and only ‘solid’ straightforward speed. Drouin was not ranked inside the top 20 this year by any major paid scouting service* (Mckeens, FC, ISS, HP) heading into this season. Jonathan however came into this season a much better player, one that took no issues taking as much time as he needed to set up the play or simply stickhandling past opposing defenders. He has scored at a better PPG clip than Mackinnon thus far, which has raised this important question.
*interesting to note he came in at #12 in TSRs September rankings
Let’s take a look at the stats.
Nathan Mackinnon – 41GP-21G-38A-69P, +37, 9 Powerplay Goals, 2 Shorthanded Goals, 6 Game Winners & 55% on faceoffs.
Shoots at 15.1% and averages 4.53 shots per game.
In 6 games without Drouin, Mackinnon had 8 goals and 3 assists.
Jonathan Drouin - 39GP-34G-38A-82P, +37, 6 Powerplay Goals, 4 Shorthanded Goals, 4 Game Winners & as a winger, his faceoffs are irrelevant but he is 43% on spot duty.
Shoots at 24.8% and averages 3.5 shots per game.
In 10 games in February without Mackinnon has 10 goals and 16 assists.
Clearly both players can step up in absence of one and other, which is impressive because without ‘the other half’ playing, defensive attention is almost certainly increased. Drouin is often known as a playmaker, but with an elite shooting percentage of 24.8%, he’s more of a complete offensive player who prefers the pass. My theory on his astronomical shooting percentage is that his hands bring him into optimal shooting areas, and having Nathan Mackinnon as a two-way centre couldn’t really hurt anyones production. As for Mackinnon, most fans would agree that he has gone through some very ‘snakebitten’ phases at different points this year, so his shooting ability is a little better than 15% tells you.
Now a look into how their production ties together.
In 35 games they’ve played together so far this season:
Drouin (35-29-43-72) has 14 goals and 14 assists that don’t involve Mackinnon. He’s had 15 goals assisted by Mackinnon
Mackinnon (35-20-35-58) has 8 goals and 8 assists that don’t involve Drouin. He’s had 12 goals assisted by Drouin.
There has been 17 times where the two have captured both assists on a linemates goal.
These numbers mean that when they play together, 76% of Mackinnons production involves Drouin and 61% of Drouins production involves Mackinnon. I’m no expert on the production relationship of these statistics, but 76% seems pretty high for a linemate.
This tells me at least what many seem to think already – Drouin is the better offensive player. But after I factor in the differences I have seen in 15+ games on defense, which cannot be measured (board play, help down low, backchecking etc.) I still see Nathan Mackinnon being the more polished and ready prospect.
Who is going to go first at the draft? That’s for scouts to decide. It would take some brassy ones to take Drouins sky-high offensive potential over Mackinnons solid rounded game.
All I can say is that I’m happy it isn’t my choice to make.
Is there anything else that you think I can isolate to help the analysis given these statistics?
