Drew Doughty vs Zdeno Chara

[VoluntaryDom]

This amuses me. Hedman's stats were skewed negatively because his team was so good, Karlssons stats were skewed negatively because his team was so bad, blah, blah, blah, Doughty sucks.

No his stats were skewed negatively later on in the season (when Dotchin was being scratched) because we sucked

 

[Silky mitts]

I feel like Chara is about the 90th best player all time and Doughty trending to be like the 85th best player of all time

 

[VoluntaryDom]

....

At 5v5, Hedman had 30pts, Doughty had 27. Shrug emoji. Again, note the difference in team 5v5 scoring.

At even strength period, Hedman had 35, Doughty had 39, tied with Brent Burns for 4th amongst d-men.

Are we really going to continue to do this thing where we pretend Doughty isn't good offensively? Please stop with the "large offensive gap," "blows out of the water" offensively statements, they're obviously trash.

Doughty: .91 5v5 p/60, .52 5v5 p1/60
Hedman: 1.23, .89

Pretty big gap if you ask me, Hedman basically same primary scoring rate as doughty’s overall scoring rate

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Also at 5v5 Hedman had 29 and doughty had 24 idk where you got your numbers

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Doughty is good offensively just not elite like Hedman is. Neither of them had particularly impressive seasons anyway, Karlsson/Hamilton should have been the norris top-2 but they missed the playoffs.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

In individual expected goals per 60, Hedman was 95th percentile among dmen and Doughty was 31st percentile.

 

[redcard]

That’s fair. That’s one of those years where there wasn’t a clear #1 and a few guys had good arguments.

Doughty missed the playoffs in 2015, so a large amount of voters left him off the ballot entirely. As a result, Karlsson won the Norris despite Doughty having the most 1st place votes.

Karlsson missed the playoffs in 2016.

The reason Doughty beat Karlsson in 2016 is the reason Karlsson beat Doughty in 2015. You can't have your tårta and eat it too.

 

[ESH]

Doughty missed the playoffs in 2015, so a large amount of voters left him off the ballot entirely. As a result, Karlsson won the Norris despite Doughty having the most 1st place votes.

Karlsson missed the playoffs in 2016.

The reason Doughty beat Karlsson in 2016 is the reason Karlsson beat Doughty in 2015. You can't have your tårta and eat it too.

Well it’s not like I agree with that method of voting. Both had great seasons both of those years and both were deserving of the Norris either of those years. There’s no right answer, it’s all subjective. I personally would have voted Karlsson first both years, but Doughty wasn’t far behind.

 

[redcard]

No his stats were skewed negatively later on in the season (when Dotchin was being scratched) because we sucked

Same, all of Doughty's bad numbers that don't fit our narrative are because Quick had a cold or something.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Same, all of Doughty's bad numbers that don't fit our narrative are because Quick had a cold or something.

So you’re telling me Hedman+Dotchin’s numbers together weren’t inflated by the lightning being literally unstoppable in the first 2 months which was when they played together the most? Sure dawg...

 

[GreatGonzo]

Doughty missed the playoffs in 2015, so a large amount of voters left him off the ballot entirely. As a result, Karlsson won the Norris despite Doughty having the most 1st place votes.

Karlsson missed the playoffs in 2016.

The reason Doughty beat Karlsson in 2016 is the reason Karlsson beat Doughty in 2015. You can't have your tårta and eat it too.

This idea makes no sense. Sure EK had an extraordinary year offensively, but Doughty was by far the better defenseman in all aspects of the position other than offense, but he still put up great numbers.

 

[redcard]

So you’re telling me Hedman+Dotchin’s numbers together weren’t inflated by the lightning being literally unstoppable in the first 2 months which was when they played together the most? Sure dawg...

Nah dawg, I'm telling you you're trying to make an argument based on advanced stats and then supply anecdotal excuses for why some other advanced stats don't reflect that narrative without considering that anecdotal excuses could be equally applied to the other player. Werd.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Doughty: .91 5v5 p/60, .52 5v5 p1/60
Hedman: 1.23, .89

Pretty big gap if you ask me, Hedman basically same primary scoring rate as doughty’s overall scoring rate

If you're going to look at rates, you need to look at minutes, deployment, and competition too. Is there a reason--wink wink--you ignore that repeatedly?

I'll give you a hint--Doughty ranked far and away first in 5v5 TOI in the NHL, Hedman was 28th. Doughty had a zone start ratio of 48.97, including a -1.89 ZSR and the worst ozone starts on the Kings; Hedman 54.32, 2.57 relative to team, and the cushiest ozone starts of anyone not named Sergachev. In other words, Doughty had by far the hardest minutes on the Kings...while Hedman had the cushiest deployment aside from a rookie. And despite all that and the most explosive offense in the NHL, he put up a whopping....3 more points.

Doughty is good offensively just not elite like Hedman is. Neither of them had particularly impressive seasons anyway, Karlsson/Hamilton should have been the norris top-2 but they missed the playoffs.

And there goes all your credibility in one post. Between that, you moving the goalposts, and changing from an advanced-stats absolutist to "well, that one doesn't count because...", we're done here.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

If you're going to look at rates, you need to look at minutes, deployment, and competition too. Is there a reason--wink wink--you ignore that repeatedly?

I'll give you a hint--Doughty ranked far and away first in 5v5 TOI in the NHL, Hedman was 28th. Doughty had a zone start ratio of 48.97, including a -1.89 ZSR and the worst ozone starts on the Kings; Hedman 54.32, 2.57 relative to team, and the cushiest ozone starts of anyone not named Sergachev. In other words, Doughty had by far the hardest minutes on the Kings...while Hedman had the cushiest deployment aside from a rookie. And despite all that and the most explosive offense in the NHL, he put up a whopping....3 more points.




And there goes all your credibility in one post. Between that, you moving the goalposts, and changing from an advanced-stats absolutist to "well, that one doesn't count because...", we're done here.

Look I’m not saying Hedman deserved the Norris (although he arguably did), just that he’s better than Doughty. Also, zone starts aren’t a great measure of difficulty in deployment, I prefer qoc and qot percentiles which place Hedman and Doughty at very similar deployment. Doughty playing so much ice time should have led to him easily outscorinh hedman if he’s comparable offensively when.. wait he didn’t. Oh. Not sure you can be talking to me about moving goal posts when you are the one trying to peg me as an “advanced stat absolutist” when I’m really not. I use many methods of evaluating players, some of them statistical. From an eye test standpoint Hedman imo beats out Doughty as well, he’s so much more dynamic in the offensive zone. Both are elite at carrying it through the neutral zone. They play different defensive styles which are both rather effective. Doughty is a more aggressive defender who makes big hits and chases guys down, while Hedman is a more passive one who’s strengths include positioning and stick work. (Not that the other is bad in any of those areas just they are stylistically different). I don’t think either of these guys are as bad defensively as the numbers indicate, and due to their ice time their scoring rates are going to be skewed down some. But to me Hedman is noticeably better than Doughty offensively and they are comparable defensively. I find Doughty somewhat overrated to be honest. Some people overrate Hedman as well but it’s not as common. And the best dman in the league is, without a doubt, Erik Karlsson. An “advanced stat absolutist” would have said Hamilton, or some dman who’s good in whatever stats they prefer.

End of rant, haha

 

[triggrman]

How can anyone honestly think that zone starts don't measure difficulty in deployment? At every level of hockey you start your better defensive players in defensive zone face-offs.

Also how is qoc measured now, is it still corsi based? If so, I'd question it.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

How can anyone honestly think that zone starts don't measure difficulty in deployment? At every level of hockey you start your better defensive players in defensive zone face-offs.

Also how is qoc measured now, is it still corsi based? If so, I'd question it.

ToI based. Still not perfect but it’s a solid indicator of usage. And from my experience playing, it matters a lot more who I’m on the ice with and against than where I start. I believe there has been research done into this topic but I’m not sure.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

If the best players get the d zone starts always then I guess we might as well hand the Hart to carter rowney

 

[ESH]

I’m just confused how someone can say Hamilton was a top-2 defenseman in the league last year when basically every single Flames fan will tell you that Giordano was CLEARLY the better player.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Look I’m not saying Hedman deserved the Norris (although he arguably did), just that he’s better than Doughty. Also, zone starts aren’t a great measure of difficulty in deployment, I prefer qoc and qot percentiles which place Hedman and Doughty at very similar deployment. Doughty playing so much ice time should have led to him easily outscorinh hedman if he’s comparable offensively when.. wait he didn’t. Oh. Not sure you can be talking to me about moving goal posts when you are the one trying to peg me as an “advanced stat absolutist” when I’m really not. I use many methods of evaluating players, some of them statistical. From an eye test standpoint Hedman imo beats out Doughty as well, he’s so much more dynamic in the offensive zone. Both are elite at carrying it through the neutral zone. They play different defensive styles which are both rather effective. Doughty is a more aggressive defender who makes big hits and chases guys down, while Hedman is a more passive one who’s strengths include positioning and stick work. (Not that the other is bad in any of those areas just they are stylistically different). I don’t think either of these guys are as bad defensively as the numbers indicate, and due to their ice time their scoring rates are going to be skewed down some. But to me Hedman is noticeably better than Doughty offensively and they are comparable defensively. I find Doughty somewhat overrated to be honest. Some people overrate Hedman as well but it’s not as common. And the best dman in the league is, without a doubt, Erik Karlsson. An “advanced stat absolutist” would have said Hamilton, or some dman who’s good in whatever stats they prefer.

End of rant, haha

I'm not coming hard at you because you prefer a different player, I'm doing it because your facts/reasoning were questionable. And we can't have a good faith discussion when you utter garbage like

If the best players get the d zone starts always then I guess we might as well hand the Hart to carter rowney

You're deliberately trying to be obtuse when faced with facts. A discussion would include being open minded to alternative views and facts that oppose your theory; but when presented with the full scope of those facts instead of cherry picking only the obscure favorable ones, you retreat into a shell like the quote above. I'm just not going to engage with that.

Never mind the serious faults with your eye test re: Doughty and the idea that he even has some 'bad numbers' defensively. I'm not convinced you've watched more than 10 Kings games ever.

Anyway this all comes back to the idea that you feel Doughty shouldn't have a single Norris at all which I can't believe I engaged anyway but asked and answered and maybe now you have a slightly better idea of how good he actually is since you'll have stats to cause dissonance with your desire for confirmation bias. Also keep in mind the stats have never been flattering to Doughty's game and he's long been said to be one you have to watch to understand the impact...that should tell you how good he is since the numbers keep going up as well.

 

[Agent Zub]

This idea makes no sense. Sure EK had an extraordinary year offensively, but Doughty was by far the better defenseman in all aspects of the position other than offense, but he still put up great numbers.

Just because you say so doesn't make it true.

I swear people try to act that Doughty is some uber defensive god who never makes a mistake.

He isn't close to that.

 

[Agent Zub]

Also why has this become Hedman vs Doughty.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I'm not coming hard at you because you prefer a different player, I'm doing it because your facts/reasoning were questionable. And we can't have a good faith discussion when you utter garbage like



You're deliberately trying to be obtuse when faced with facts. A discussion would include being open minded to alternative views and facts that oppose your theory; but when presented with the full scope of those facts instead of cherry picking only the obscure favorable ones, you retreat into a shell like the quote above. I'm just not going to engage with that.

Never mind the serious faults with your eye test re: Doughty and the idea that he even has some 'bad numbers' defensively. I'm not convinced you've watched more than 10 Kings games ever.

Anyway this all comes back to the idea that you feel Doughty shouldn't have a single Norris at all which I can't believe I engaged anyway but asked and answered and maybe now you have a slightly better idea of how good he actually is since you'll have stats to cause dissonance with your desire for confirmation bias. Also keep in mind the stats have never been flattering to Doughty's game and he's long been said to be one you have to watch to understand the impact...that should tell you how good he is since the numbers keep going up as well.

Zone starts are not a great indicator of how tough Ice time is. Please explain the flaws in my analysis of DD. Bad was a bit of an exaggeration but the numbers certainly don’t point to an elite dman defensively. Same thing with Hedman. And a player who “the stats have never been flattering to” sounds like a player who is chronically overrated I me.

As for the DD should not have a norris, at the very least he should not have the 2016 one. That’s EK’s any day. 2015 there’s a case.

 

[The Abusement Park]

No his stats were skewed negatively later on in the season (when Dotchin was being scratched) because we sucked

So Hedman was still playing well, but because the rest of the team sucked Hedman’s fancy stats were negatively affected?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

So Hedman was still playing well, but because the rest of the team sucked Hedman’s fancy stats were negatively affected?

Yes. Well sucked is a bit of an exaggeration, but yeah Hedman was great down the stretch without Dotchin but the team hit a big slump.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Just because you say so doesn't make it true.

I swear people try to act that Doughty is some uber defensive god who never makes a mistake.

He isn't close to that.

Karlsson has never been elite defensively, Doughty always has been.