Appleyard
Registered User
After doing the stats for the draft overall a few days back, several people proposed looking only at goaltenders, so here goes.
I looked at the draft from 1980-2002 (last year data could really be reliable) and looked which goaltenders in each round got to 100GP, 200GP, 400GP, 600GP and All star apps. This took into consideration the 561 goaltenders drafted in that time.
I also broke it down further to positions of 1-10, 11-20 etc up to 120. Each bracket had 20-30 players in, apart from the first two, with 12 in one and 8 in another.
Round by round:
1st Round:
100GP: 56.8%
200GP: 50%
400GP: 27.3%
600GP: 20.5%
All-Star: 25%
2nd Round
100GP: 37.5%
200GP: 34.4%
400GP: 18.8%
600GP: 12.5%
All-Star: 15.6%
3rd Round
100GP: 28.8%
200GP: 19.7%
400GP: 9.1%
600GP: 1.5%
All-Star: 4.5%
4th Round
100GP: 16.7%
200GP: 15.3%
400GP: 5.6%
600GP: 4.2%
All-Star: 8.3%
5th Round Onwards:
100GP: 12.4%
200GP: 8.3%
400GP: 3.8%
600GP: 2.5%
All-Star: 4.8%
So... don't pick a goalie in the 3rd round! Though only the lack of Allstars and +600 sways it... overall teams seem to draft pretty well, and in fact drafting a goalie has more chance of being an all star in every round than other players (if compared to my value of draft pick thread.)
Though a safer bet in first two rounds for a useful to 1st line NHLer is a defenseman or forward. Goalies are more likely to boom or bust.
Also the chance of getting a great goalie later (5th to 7th) is almost double compared to defense-men and forwards, though even if comparing to useful to good NHLers goalies are safer in later rounds (2% all star forwards and D to 4.8% netminders, 3.5% 700GP F&D t0 3.8% 400GP Netminder, 6.8% 400GP F&D to 8.3% 200GP netminder)
So really a 5th-7th round pick of a goalie is better value than a forward or D, even though the chances are both low, 1/50 out-ice player, 1/20 goaltender.
In Depth:
1st Round
1-10: 100 GP: 75%, 200 GP: 58.3%, 400 GP: 41.7%, 600 GP: 25%, All-Star: 33.3%
11-20: 100 GP: 62.5%, 200 GP: 62.5%, 400 GP: 50%, 600 GP: 37.5%, All-Star: 37.5%
21-30: 100 GP: 45.8%, 200 GP: 41.7%, 400 GP: 12.5%, 600 GP: 12.5%, All-Star: 16.7%
2nd Round
31-40: 100 GP: 44.4%, 200 GP: 33.3%, 400 GP: 27.8%, 600 GP: 16.7%, All-Star: 16.7%
41-50: 100 GP: 35%, 200 GP: 35%, 400 GP: 15%, 600 GP: 5%, All-Star: 5%
51-60: 100 GP: 34.6%, 200 GP: 34.6%, 400 GP: 15.4%, 600 GP: 15.3%, All-Star: 23%
3rd Round
61-70: 100 GP: 47.4%, 200 GP: 21.1%, 400 GP: 10.5%, 600 GP: 0%, All-Star: 5.3%
71-80: 100 GP: 31.8%, 200 GP: 27.3%, 400 GP: 9.1%, 600 GP: 4.5%, All-Star: 9.1%
81-90: 100 GP: 12%, 200 GP: 12%, 400 GP: 8%, 600 GP: 0%, All-Star: 0%
4th Round
91-100: 100 GP: 15.8%, 200 GP: 10.5%, 400 GP: 0%, 600 GP: 0%, All-Star: 5.3%
101-110: 100 GP: 10.3%, 200 GP: 10.3%, 400 GP: 3.4%, 600 GP: 3.4%, All-Star: 3.4%
111-120: 100 GP: 25%, 200 GP: 25%, 400 GP: 12.5%, 600 GP: 8.3%, All-Star: 16.7%
So while drafting earlier usually gets a better player, the risk is far higher of a bust than when drafting forwards and D, and seemingly just pick in the 111-120 range to get a good keeper! Pretty big outlier really. And while the later you draft the less chance of a useful NHL player, the chance of getting a great starter does not really vary too much after the 2nd round.
I looked at the draft from 1980-2002 (last year data could really be reliable) and looked which goaltenders in each round got to 100GP, 200GP, 400GP, 600GP and All star apps. This took into consideration the 561 goaltenders drafted in that time.
I also broke it down further to positions of 1-10, 11-20 etc up to 120. Each bracket had 20-30 players in, apart from the first two, with 12 in one and 8 in another.
Round by round:
1st Round:
100GP: 56.8%
200GP: 50%
400GP: 27.3%
600GP: 20.5%
All-Star: 25%
2nd Round
100GP: 37.5%
200GP: 34.4%
400GP: 18.8%
600GP: 12.5%
All-Star: 15.6%
3rd Round
100GP: 28.8%
200GP: 19.7%
400GP: 9.1%
600GP: 1.5%
All-Star: 4.5%
4th Round
100GP: 16.7%
200GP: 15.3%
400GP: 5.6%
600GP: 4.2%
All-Star: 8.3%
5th Round Onwards:
100GP: 12.4%
200GP: 8.3%
400GP: 3.8%
600GP: 2.5%
All-Star: 4.8%
So... don't pick a goalie in the 3rd round! Though only the lack of Allstars and +600 sways it... overall teams seem to draft pretty well, and in fact drafting a goalie has more chance of being an all star in every round than other players (if compared to my value of draft pick thread.)
Though a safer bet in first two rounds for a useful to 1st line NHLer is a defenseman or forward. Goalies are more likely to boom or bust.
Also the chance of getting a great goalie later (5th to 7th) is almost double compared to defense-men and forwards, though even if comparing to useful to good NHLers goalies are safer in later rounds (2% all star forwards and D to 4.8% netminders, 3.5% 700GP F&D t0 3.8% 400GP Netminder, 6.8% 400GP F&D to 8.3% 200GP netminder)
So really a 5th-7th round pick of a goalie is better value than a forward or D, even though the chances are both low, 1/50 out-ice player, 1/20 goaltender.
In Depth:
1st Round
1-10: 100 GP: 75%, 200 GP: 58.3%, 400 GP: 41.7%, 600 GP: 25%, All-Star: 33.3%
11-20: 100 GP: 62.5%, 200 GP: 62.5%, 400 GP: 50%, 600 GP: 37.5%, All-Star: 37.5%
21-30: 100 GP: 45.8%, 200 GP: 41.7%, 400 GP: 12.5%, 600 GP: 12.5%, All-Star: 16.7%
2nd Round
31-40: 100 GP: 44.4%, 200 GP: 33.3%, 400 GP: 27.8%, 600 GP: 16.7%, All-Star: 16.7%
41-50: 100 GP: 35%, 200 GP: 35%, 400 GP: 15%, 600 GP: 5%, All-Star: 5%
51-60: 100 GP: 34.6%, 200 GP: 34.6%, 400 GP: 15.4%, 600 GP: 15.3%, All-Star: 23%
3rd Round
61-70: 100 GP: 47.4%, 200 GP: 21.1%, 400 GP: 10.5%, 600 GP: 0%, All-Star: 5.3%
71-80: 100 GP: 31.8%, 200 GP: 27.3%, 400 GP: 9.1%, 600 GP: 4.5%, All-Star: 9.1%
81-90: 100 GP: 12%, 200 GP: 12%, 400 GP: 8%, 600 GP: 0%, All-Star: 0%
4th Round
91-100: 100 GP: 15.8%, 200 GP: 10.5%, 400 GP: 0%, 600 GP: 0%, All-Star: 5.3%
101-110: 100 GP: 10.3%, 200 GP: 10.3%, 400 GP: 3.4%, 600 GP: 3.4%, All-Star: 3.4%
111-120: 100 GP: 25%, 200 GP: 25%, 400 GP: 12.5%, 600 GP: 8.3%, All-Star: 16.7%
So while drafting earlier usually gets a better player, the risk is far higher of a bust than when drafting forwards and D, and seemingly just pick in the 111-120 range to get a good keeper! Pretty big outlier really. And while the later you draft the less chance of a useful NHL player, the chance of getting a great starter does not really vary too much after the 2nd round.