Drafting as the Montreal Canadiens for 6 years, we can now start comparing the results

ProspectsFanatic

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Nov 13, 2012
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Good work for the dig at McCagg alone lol.

Missing Point and Kase probably the two that hurt the most, and seemed very suspect even at the time. I doubt Point would have developed his skating the same way in Montreal though.

McCagg is purely a meme at this point on the Montreal board, he deleted his account in rage because no one respected him, but that was due to his inflated ego continually bashing at anyone who had a different opinion than his :laugh:

_
On an unrelated note, what do you think of Rasmus Sandin and Sean Durzi?
I'll be back at you when I have more time.
 
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Goptor

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Jun 30, 2016
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Very nice work putting in the time and effort. Are you planning to continue this into the future?

Some suggestions for next year and beyond if you do:
1: The trading idea sounds cool "I get to see the guy I really liked!" but it pushes you further away from your goal of comparing to the team's drafting. You'll get more out of your work if you force a difficult decision and choose between players you may not like as much.

2: No goaltenders taken. Teams must take goalies to fill out depth where you have the luxury of not caring. It cannot be expected to do research and evaluation on goalies so maybe a fair solution is just to put, for example," 3rd round #74: best goaltender available ". Your method gives you 2-4 free picks that a normal NHL team will not be able to make.

3: Set yourself strict deadlines on list releases and keep documentation on the different changes you make. I can imagine it being extremely difficult to avoid using post-draft information when coming up with your list. Self criticize your changes to determine if you were influenced by the actual draft positions or any accidental readings of later released information.

4: You set no conclusions so I'm unaware how you made them, if at all. Don't forget to fill in AHL roster spots and make conclusions off of that. Drafting career AHLers that work well with developing players is Important. They are more valuable than players who drop out or never come over to the organization. You may need to alter your drafting strategy if you continuously run into shortages at the minor league level.
 
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ProspectsFanatic

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Nov 13, 2012
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Very nice work putting in the time and effort. Are you planning to continue this into the future?

Some suggestions for next year and beyond if you do:
1: The trading idea sounds cool "I get to see the guy I really liked!" but it pushes you further away from your goal of comparing to the team's drafting. You'll get more out of your work if you force a difficult decision and choose between players you may not like as much.

2: No goaltenders taken. Teams must take goalies to fill out depth where you have the luxury of not caring. It cannot be expected to do research and evaluation on goalies so maybe a fair solution is just to put, for example," 3rd round #74: best goaltender available ". Your method gives you 2-4 free picks that a normal NHL team will not be able to make.

3: Set yourself strict deadlines on list releases and keep documentation on the different changes you make. I can imagine it being extremely difficult to avoid using post-draft information when coming up with your list. Self criticize your changes to determine if you were influenced by the actual draft positions or any accidental readings of later released information.

4: You set no conclusions so I'm unaware how you made them, if at all. Don't forget to fill in AHL roster spots and make conclusions off of that. Drafting career AHLers that work well with developing players is Important. They are more valuable than players who drop out or never come over to the organization. You may need to alter your drafting strategy if you continuously run into shortages at the minor league level.

I appreciate your interest, but you are one of those the take this too seriously in my opinion. The first few years I simply casually posted on HFB who I would have drafted with the Habs picks, now with the software I more avid at following the draft, I produce a list and simply let players fall as they may. This is just fun to me to look back on even if the comparison isn't perfect in every way.

1. I said I didn't want to get into this and I already explained my reasons in the OP and responses.

2. That's a fair point. I don't scout players all that much, particularly goaltenders, I mean it is very hard to project goaltenders by seeing them play. I find my edge by looking at numbers, but numbers for goaltenders don't mean all that much as well. Also, factoring their slower development curve, there is higher variance in selecting goaltenders so drafting them is more luck base. Put all of this together and it is a bit like rolling the dice to me if I were to draft goaltenders. I don't see why I should be taking that risk considering I have a pretty high batting average drafting F/D.

Having said that, I honestly believe that unless you are desperately in need of goaltenders in your organization, avoiding drafting goaltenders altogether might be a viable strategy. Hear me out, unless you are a high-end goaltender you hold nearly no value, 1B and premium backup were easily available as free asset for little money and term in free agency, Bernier, Hutton, Mrazek, Halak, Lehner, some of them will be 1G for their team, none of them cost as much as Ian Cole which is a 4th D at best, Jay Beagle a 3rd liner at best cost more than most of them. Value wise drafting goaltenders seem to give you a poor return. Therefore, since their trade market tend to be lower you might be better off selecting forwards and defensemen which have higher market value and subsequently trade them for goaltenders if need be. An additional benefit to this strategy is that since you will tend to have fewer goaltenders in your system it should be easier for you to attract the top young goaltending UFAs in need of an entry-level deal which there is a higher proportion of available compared to other positions most year due to the previously explained higher variance in development. On top of this, MTL had Price all those years, they have their premium 1G, and like I just said, backup hold no value, no need to get one by draft, we got ours on waivers, the prospect challenging him, Lindgren, we signed him as a free agent, same for our 4th goaltender, McNiven, despite drafting Fucale in the 2nd rounds a few years ago. To me, goalies are almost a waste of picks. We don't even know when Price will need a replacement, bad timing can cause problems, even if we draft a star we may be forced to trade him away despite the comparative lower market value because we have no room, NYR had to trade away Ranta because of Lunqvist and his contract even though they are soon going to be in need of a replacement for him. To me, we are better off doing something like New Jersey, they traded away a high-value pick for a young premium 1G, Schneider, near Brodeur retirement and they are good in net for another decade, to me that's a lot wiser than selecting a goaltender 5 years prior at the similar draft position of the traded pick (add to this that the goaltenders they drafted to prepare for Brodeur retirement where not worth it for them in the end, forcing them to make the trade).

Drafting a proportional amount of F/D/G is not necessarily the best strategy even if it seems like the intuitive thing to do. I am pretty sure my logic holds up, I doubt GMs and scouts can think that through though. You can take a flyer with a late rounder at times though, that's fine with me.

The goaltenders that were the 2nd BPA on my list for during those years for those picks are: Ed Minney with the 7th in 2014, Veini Vehlainen with the 7th rounder in 2015, Stuart Skinner with the late 4th rounder and Primeau with the 7th rounder in 2017. You can find all of those in the links I provide. I liked Carter Hart on his draft year, could have been higher up my list if I felt like a goaltender was a need.

3. It is not my full-time job. I was doing it more casually the first years, this season my list was ready pre-draft, hopefully, I can continue doing the same in the upcoming years.

4. My AHL is looking solid, players I drafted signing entry-level or continuing playing pro hockey factoring the picks position is a clear step higher than average by the looks of it.
 
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frederixx

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Dec 5, 2005
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Really nice work you did there but you can’t choose based on trade ups (that wouldn’t necessarily happen).

I still appreciate the reading. Well done
 

ProspectsFanatic

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Nov 13, 2012
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Really nice work you did there but you can’t choose based on trade ups (that wouldn’t necessarily happen).

I still appreciate the reading. Well done

MTL continually traded down in the previous draft even though I would have liked to draft the BPA at those ranks, that wouldn't necessarily have happened also, here it was disadvantageous for me to follow their trades but I kept their picks because it is simpler for comparison sake (the trades also included picks for next year). Never trading up when I have players I am extremely high on on my list is also unrealistic in some ways too, in the end I traded less than MTL did. For me all of this is debatable, either way I find more enjoyment by using some of this flexibility.
 

ProspectsFanatic

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Nov 13, 2012
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Good stuff.

On an unrelated note, what do you think of Rasmus Sandin and Sean Durzi? Just asking because you seem to have a good idea about prospects.

I had Sandin two ranks higher than his draft rank. He checks all the boxes, he is a very smart player both sides of the ice, can move the puck up the ice with confidence, good on PP, high compete. In terms of numbers he benefited from sharing the ice with very good linemates, but on the flip side, his ice time suffered by having older guys in front of him, Timmins & Hollowell. I think he can be a reliable 2nd pairing defenseman for Toronto down the road.

Durzi isn't a player I like as much. He highly benefited this season by having loads of ice time on a talented offensive team. I don't believe his skills match his level of production this season, almost half his offensive production was on the PP, good offensive instincts, but factoring his age I will keep some reserve, there are reasons why he went undrafted last season, I am personally not so confident his game will translate to the NHL, which is why I had him much lower down my ranking than where he has been drafted at.
 
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ProspectsFanatic

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Nov 13, 2012
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What you think about Rasmus Kupari?

I didn't like my viewing of his in the WJC18. You can see he has the tools to dominate the competition, but his IQ was a big reg flag to me. It seems like every time he was carrying the puck and tried to create something it didn't amount to anything as if he had a hard time processing everything that was going around him while the puck was on his stick. He has a bit of a Yakupov vibe to me. He is a great skater though which makes it a lot easier to translate his game at the next level. Overall he isn't a favorite of mine, but I can see the tools and acknowledge what he has been able to accomplish for his age which is why I had him #31 overall, I don't think any well known rankings had him lower than me.
 
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ulvvf

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May 9, 2014
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I do not think it is much but point in start judging draft pick after at least 2015, and that is probably to early as well. But i judge you from 2013 to 2015, so from that i can see that you have picked a team that would have been similar to this today.

Buchnevich - Point - Bjorkstrand
Lehkonen - Wallmark - Kase
Tkachev - Holmstrom- Sprong
Dano - Marody - Scherbak

Hagg - Kylington
Tryamkin - Ollas Mattsson
Roy -

vs Monteral that has pick this team

2015:

Lehkonen - de la Rose - Andrighetto
Vejdemo - Audette - Scherbak
Bradley - McCarron - Evans
Réway - Grégoire - Crisp

Juulsen - Lernout
Addison - Bourque
Koberstein -

Fucale
Hawkey

It is not close

I can start with my own comparsion now and see how that goes.

I take washington (not a favorite team, but take them because they picked last)

2018
Washingtons picks
1 #31 Alexander Alexeyev (D)
2 #46 Martin Fehérváry (D)
2 #47 Kody Clark (F)
3 #93 Riley Sutter (F)
4 #124 Mitchell Gibson (G)
6 #161 Alex Kannok-Leipert (D)
7 #217 Eric Florchuk (F)

This would have been my picks
1 #31 Jonatan Berggren (F)
2 #46 Calen Addison (D)
2 #47 Bulat Shafigullin (F)
3 #93 Allan McShane (F)
4 #124 Cole Fonstad (F)
6 #161 Nikolai Kovalenko (F)
7 #217 Amir Miftakhov (G)
 
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Whileee

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May 29, 2010
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Going forward, just publish your top 150 or 200 ahead of time, or even right after the draft. Then an objective evaluation of your "list" can be done in the future.
 

Stephen

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Feb 28, 2002
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Interesting how Brayden Point was such a fan favourite at the draft but was picked so low.
 

ProspectsFanatic

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Nov 13, 2012
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Interesting how Brayden Point was such a fan favourite at the draft but was picked so low.

In all honesty Point was actually the most no brainer pick I had to make thus far, he had unreal numbers 72-36-55-91 while his linemates were not even point per game. Not sure what scouts were thinking? A lot of them were still in the old mentality I guess, reluctant to draft a 5'9" player at the time.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
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51,520
In all honesty Point was actually the most no brainer pick I had to make thus far, he had unreal numbers 72-36-55-91 while his linemates were not even point per game. Not sure what scouts were thinking? A lot of them were still in the old mentality I guess, reluctant to draft a 5'9" player at the time.

He was a fan forum favorite for sure, just not sure how he slipped. Well, obviously because of his size.
 

ProspectsFanatic

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Nov 13, 2012
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Did the exercise of drafting as MTL following FutureConsiderations lists in order to have another comparison.

2013
25 Valentin Zykov, F
34 Robert Hagg, D
36 Nic Petan, F
55 Adam Erne, F
71 Keaton Thompson, D
86 Jordan Subban, D
116 Ryan Fitzgerald, F
176 Brendan Harms, F

2014
26 Ivan Barbashev, F
73 Anton Karlsson, F
125 Aaron Haydon, D
147 Spencer Watson, F
177 Vladimir Tkachev, F
207 Seamus Malone, F

2015
26 Jeremy Roy, D
87 Nicolas Roy, F
131 Kirill Kaprizov, F
177 Nikita Korostelev, F
207 Veini Vehvilainen, G

2016
9 Jakob Chychrun, D
70 William Bitten, F
100 William Knierim, F
124 Benjamin Gleason, D
160 Markus Nurmi, F
187 Zach Sawchenko, G

2017
25 Eeli Tolvanen, F
56 Matthew Strome, F
58 Mackenzie Entwistle, F
68 Ostap Safin, F
87 Nikita Popugayev, F
149 Ivan Chekovich, F
199 Artyum Minulin, D

2018
3 Filip Zadina, F
35 Bode Wilde, D
38 Akil Thomas, F
56 Jacob Olofsson, F
66 Alexander Khovanov, F
71 Vladislav Kotkov, F
97 Aidan Dudas, F
123 Alexis Gravel, G
128 Nikita Ritschev, F
133 Anderson MacDonald, F
190 Luka Burzan, F


This is how our 2013-2016 teams compare:
FC team:
F
Tkachev* - Barbashev - Kaprizov*
Nurmi* - Petan - Zykov
Erne - N. Roy - Fitzgerald
A.Karlsson - Bitten - Watson
* Still in Europe

D
Chychrun - J.Roy
J.Subban - K.Thompson
Haydon - Gleason

G
Vehvilainen
Sawchenko

ProspectsFanatic team:
F
Kase - Point - Bjorkstrand
Sprong - Buchnevich - Bratt
Lehkonen - Tkachev* - Scherbak
Dano - Marody - Wallmark

D
Sergachev - Hagg
Tryamkin* - Kylington
Moverare - Bernhardt*
*Still in Europe

F
Lehkonen - DLRose - Scherbak
McCarron - Evans - Andrighetto
Vejdemo - Audette - Reway*
Addison - Bitten - Gregoire
*Still in Europe

D
Sergachev - Juulsen
Mete - Lernout
Bourque - Koberstein

G
Fucale
Hawkey
 
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