Drafting as the Montreal Canadiens for 6 years, we can now start comparing the results

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by ProspectsFanatic, Jan 4, 2018.

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  1. ProspectsFanatic

    ProspectsFanatic Jonatan Berggren

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    Original post:
    I started doing this exercise 5 years ago, simply motivated by curiosity; how will I perform compared to an NHL team? I think we all are puzzled by some of our team selections, it felt necessary to me to actually do the exercise so I can factually compare how I would perform and not be biased by my selective memory when I am judging their work.

    In order to be sure about each and every pick I made I end up spending a lot of time on this every year, a lot more than I originally anticipated, it feels necessary for me to analyze every single prospects, including the top undrafted, it generally takes me around 1 month to go through everything, I give myself the luxury to spend some times after the draft to give my final list since there is a lot more information and videos on prospects once the draft been completed (I don’t have time to watch junior league level games during the year).

    How do I evaluate players? I mainly look at statistics, I always been good with numbers, at seeing patterns in them, otherwise I take the time to check as many highlights as I can on players I feel interested in, I also had access to independent scouting reports to complement my evaluations of players. To further help me evaluate prospects accurately, I developed a software during the last year, there will be more info about it down bellow. My main criteria of evaluation are; 1. Statistics (relative to league and age), 2. Speed, 3. Size, 4. Character, 5. Defensive play. Unless you are an enormous player with grit, if you don’t have good statistics I won’t bother looking further into that prospect, if you are not dominant at junior level and don’t see how you will be able to compete at the NHL level few years from now, that being said you always need to be careful with statistics and look further into them; taking into consideration ice time and quality of linemates. About the videos I watch, mainly highlights(that's mostly what I have access to), they don’t mean much to me, because obviously it is only a small sample of plays which turned out well, but I still watch them mostly just to have a confirmation on the player speed which is the attribute I value the most by far, and if possible have a glimpse on the level of competitiveness. Defensive play is there at 5 and barely there because I have to rely on other sources and it is hard to evaluate accurately in the first place. Things like IQ and shooting don’t need a further look because they should translate into the criteria I value the most, statistics.

    I guess it is very easy to cheat on this and adjust retrospectively your picks, I provided links for proof for every year. Sorry if some of links are a bit messy, particularly for the first 2 years, I will be giving precisions about them.

    So here are the picks:
    You can compare with MTL selections: Elite Prospects - Players drafted by Montréal Canadiens

    2013:
    *1st:25. Marko Dano (C) - KHL - 6'00 [27]
    2nd:34. Robert Hagg (D) - SHL - 6’02 - [41]
    2nd:36. Nick Sorensen (R) - QMJHL - 6’01 - [45]
    2nd:55. Artturi Lehkonen (L) - SM-Liiga - 5’11 - [55]
    **3rd:71. Pavel Buchnevich (L) - KHL - 6’02 - [75]
    3rd:86. Oliver Bjorkstrand (R) - WHL - 6’00 - [89]
    4th:116. Eric Roy (D) - WHL - 6’03 - [135]
    6th:176. Lucas Wallmark (C) - SHL - 6’00 [Undrafted, #97 in 2014]
    ***7th:206. Nikita Tryamkin (D) - KHL - 6’07 (OA:19) [Undrafted, #66 in 2014]

    Proof:
    http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/68451473/
    More info on my list;
    http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/my-view-on-2013-draft-slip-and-undrafted.1485675/
    Great list, but this is the list that needs to most clarification for different reasons;

    * This is the only pick for which I would say this; if I would be evaluating players the way I currently am, I would not have drafted Dano. I don’t mean with insights, I mean at draft time. First, you can look back at Dano's predraft stats, really hard to accurately evaluate them, secondly, I had a good enough viewing of him and considering his size he isn’t fast enough for me, particularly in the 1st round. Considering the way I now evaluate prospects, it would probably would have been Shea Theodore, but the selection I made at the time is Dano, which is why I will leave it there. Dano still somewhat alright considering other close options.

    ** The only pick which base on the links for proof I offer you it is debatable wether it was actually my pick at the time. Let me explain, Buchnevich was a player I was very high on since the very beginning, I made a quick first list and post on the Montreal board. Once I posted that list I got heavily criticize by a guy name Grant McCagg, former Habs scout.
    Here is the quote:
    "As for Buch....... helluva lot easier for someone to say they'd pick Buchnevich than to actually do it. Not one NHL teams was willing to waste a second rounder on a flaky Russian..that's 100+ senior scouts and 30 head scouts who thought differently than you...but hey...it's easy to sit back and say "I'd have taken Buchnevich."
    If by the off chance he actually has a lengthy, successful NHL career..the Habs prospect expert will always be able to come back on here and say "I told you so!"...so what's the risk for him? Buchnevish flops and you can always blame it on the NHL team not giving him a proper chance...and how the lure of playing in the KHL was too much. Easy."

    I guess he had some notoriety and some valid points, since I also liked Peter Cehlarik at that spot I made the change, because anyway I would deserve no credit for drafting Buch… Couple of weeks later, I realized that was dumb and I should go for the better player, I changed it back to Buch on my personal computer files, but never actually changed it on HFB. But you will see in the 2015 draft one, I post all the draft I made thus far, he is the one I got there. Cehlarik is still a great 3rd rounder in my book, so either way take it as you like.

    *** Here again, the only time I added a pick like that, MTL didn’t had the 7th rounder on draft day. I always put him there, for me he was exactly the type of high reward 7th rounder you want to go for, 6’7 Russian D playing in the KHL, I didn’t understand why he was under everyone's radar. Unfortunately, the Habs only had one late rounder, and I was also puzzled why Wallmark was left untaken, so I added a 7th rounder in the end. I told myself at the time if I was a real scout I would have asked for a trade to get him (like you often see teams do at draft in the 7th round). This is the pick the Habs traded for Parros which I thought was dumb acquisition also. Whatever take it as you like, if I had a 7th rounder with any other team I would have drafted Tryamkin.



    2014:
    *1st:26. Nikita Scherbak (R) - WHL - 6'01 [26]
    3rd:73. Brayden Point (C) - WHL - 5'11 [79]
    5th:125. Ondrej Kase (R) - Czech - 6'00 [205]
    5th:147. Adam Ollas Mattsson (D) - Allvsk - 6'04 [175]
    6th:177. Axel Holmstrom (C) - SHL - 6'01 [196]
    7th:207. Vladimir Tkachev (L) - QMJHL - 5'10 [Undrafted]

    Proof:
    http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threa...-drafted-too-high-low-best-undrafted.1704209/

    Ok, that is not an exact list, not sure if I either never posted it online or I can’t find it anymore, but that list still suffice, every player I drafted is on that list, aside from Scherbak (because I didn’t consider him a steal), if I wanted to cheat I would a pick someone else than Scherbak anyway. Also, if you follow the order the pick would have been 125. Lindblom, 147. Ollas Mattsson, 177. Kase, 207. Tkachev. And this is actually better since Lindblom is superior to Holmstrom, Lindblom was indeed in front of Holmstrom on my list, but Kase was in front of both and I didn’t want to cheat it, so he is there at 125. At least, I had good reasons to be high on Kase, on top of the fact that 2014 was a pretty weak draft in the later rounds. In the next year list, you will see my 2014 draft list which confirms those selections.

    *I was extremely high on Pastrnak, this is the player I wanted as I told multiple times pre-draft on the MTL board. (proof bellow)
    https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/79899259/
    https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/86007359/
    Unfortunately, he was taken 1 rank before the MTL pick, so I went with Scherbak. This is part of the game, I understand it happens to every team at some point, Scherbak is my pick and I have to live with it, but when I saw how well Pastrnak perform right after draft, it actually pisses me off a bit to be honest, so from then on I didn’t hesitate to make virtual trades if I felt like it was necessary. Because of this by 2016 I give a list of which players I will draft for every ranks instead which is much more representative of my work I spent a lot of time on.



    2015:
    !2nd:38. Daniel Sprong (R) - QMJHL - 6'00 [46]
    !2nd:58. Oliver Kylington (D) - SHL - 6’00 [60]
    3rd:88. Filip Ahl (LW) - SHL - 6'03 [109]
    5th:131. Cooper Marody (R) - USHL - 6'00 [158]
    6th:177. Nikita Korostelev (R) - OHL - 6'01 [185]
    7th:207. Nathan Noel (C) - QMJHL - 5’11 [Undrafted, #113 in 2016]
    26th pick trade for Columbus !38th and !58th.
    (As shown in the link, if I don’t make the trade, my pick was Beauvillier)

    Proof:
    http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/104390363/
    Finally a clear list as proof. Though you can see that I made some final adjustments, a peculiar change you might be looking at is Ryan Pilon, which retired during that summer, but if you look at the last edited date, I made my final adjustments before the announcement, and it actually was because I was hearing too many bad reports about how horrible is interviews went at combine, that he was disinvested about hockey which made sense in the end.


    2016:
    1st:9. Mikhail Sergachev (D) - OHL - 6’02 [9]
    3rd:70. William Bitten (C) - OHL - 5'10 [70]
    4th:100. Jacob Moverare (D) - OHL - 6’03 [112]
    5th:124. Tim Gettinger (LW) - OHL - 6’06 [141]
    6th:160. Jesper Bratt (LW) - Allvsk - 5’10 [162]
    7th:187. David Bernhardt (D) - SHL - 6’03 [199]

    Proof:
    http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/119436427/
    Hey I don’t need to justify anything. You can see the new method I am using where you can see who I would have draft depending on each rank.


    2017:
    !1st:23. Kristian Vesalainen (LW) - SHL - 6’04 [24]
    2nd:58. Max Gildon (D) - USDP - 6’03 [66]
    3rd:68. Alexei Lipanov (C) - VHL - 6'00 [76]
    3rd:87. Ostap Safin - (RW) - Czech - 6’05 [115]
    5th:149. Alexander Chmelevski - (C) - OHL - 6’00 [185]
    7th:199. Pavel Shen - (RW) - MHL - 6’01 [Undrafted, #212 in 2018]
    1st(25) and 2nd(56) trade for ARI !1st(23) (or any pick in that range)
    (As shown in the link, if I don’t make the trade, my pick was Kostin, the 2nd rounder was Brook)

    Proof:
    http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/133854841/
    Once again the player I really wanted was pick just before the Habs pick. Even within insight, I would have pushed hard to move up for Vesalainen on draft floor since I believe he was the complete package.

    I also started to developed a software which would help me evaluate players, you can find more info here: Software evaluating draft eligible player

    For trades I am using this guideline, I make sure I am the one losing the trade in terms of value in order to make it more plausible:
    https://bit.ly/2KQrgNx

    Updated post:
    2018:
    1st:3. Jesperi Kotkaniemi (C) - SM-Liiga - 6’02 [3]
    !1st:31. Jonatan Berggren (C) - SuperElit - 5'10 [33]
    2nd:38. Jonny Tychonick (D) - BCHL - 6'00 [48]
    2nd:56. Filip Hallander (C) - Allsvenskan - 6’02 [58]
    3rd:71. Bulat Shafigullin (L) - MHL - 6’01 [82]
    4th:97. Slava Demin (D) - BCHL - 6’02 [99]
    4th:123. Danila Zhuravlyov (D) - MHL - 6’00 [140]
    5th:128. Blade Jenkins (C) - OHL - 6’01 [134]
    5th:133. Xavier Bouchard (D) - QMJHL - 6’04 [185]
    7th:190: Carl Wassenius (C) - SuperElit - 6’02 [Undrafted]
    !31th(or any pick in that range) for 35th and 66th. Otherwise, Hallander moves up, Jenik at 56 and Wise at 66 (so Jenik+Wise instead of Berggren).


    Proof:
    https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/147299927/
    Full rankings with the software:
    https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/nhl-draft-software-final-rankings-updated.2506843/
    Draft review
    https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...afted-prospectsfanatics-draft-review.2507827/
    This is by far the draft I spent the most time on.


    _____
    This is what the MTL would look like with me as pro scout and keeping MB acquisitions or lack thereof. The team would have major waivers problems (I guess the recent acquisitions would be unnecessary) despite the team easily floating 10+M of cap space once reduce to a normal roster.

    LW - C - RW
    Pacioretty - Point - Gallagher
    Kase - Domi - Buchnevich
    Bratt - Danault - Bjorkstrand
    Lehkonen - Hudon - Armia
    Extra: Sprong, Scherbak, Byron, Shaw, Plekanec, Dano, Peca, Wallmark, Deslauriers. (Waivers problems)
    Most notable prospects: Kotkaniemi*, Vesalainen*, Berggren, Hallander, Marody, Safin, Shafigullin, Gettinger, Tkachev, Chmelevski, Jenkins, Sorensen, Bitten, Holmstrom, Shen, Lipanov.
    *Could potentially play in the NHL.

    LD - RD
    Sergachev** - Weber
    Alzner - Petry
    Hagg - Tryamkin (might not have left to the KHL, had issues with Vancouver)
    Extra: Reilly, Benn, Schlemko, Ouellet.
    Most notable prospects: Kylington, Tychonick, Gildon, Demin, Zhuravlyov, Moverare, X.Bouchard, Bernhardt.
    **The Drouin/Sergachev trade go entirely against our need, we have a surplus of forward and we aren’t desperate for a top center because we have Point, so the trade most likely wouldn’t have happened.

    G
    Price
    Niemi/Lindgren

    I didn’t draft any goalie because I purposely value them less; goalies are riskier picks (higher success variance factoring draft rank) and their value on the trading market is inferior than their forwards or defensemen counterpart because there is higher parity in talent among goaltenders. Also goaltending for MTL wasn't a need. That being said it also simply turned out that way, I have been close to draft one a few times. More details here:
    I don't scout players all that much, particularly goaltenders, I mean it is very hard to project goaltenders by seeing them play. I find my edge by looking at numbers, but numbers for goaltenders don't mean all that much as well. Also, factoring their slower development curve, there is higher variance in selecting goaltenders so drafting them is more luck base. Put all of this together and it is a bit like rolling the dice to me if I were to draft goaltenders. I don't see why I should be taking that risk considering I have a pretty high batting average drafting F/D.

    Having said that, I honestly believe that unless you are desperately in need of goaltenders in your organization, avoiding drafting goaltenders altogether might be a viable strategy. Hear me out, unless you are a high-end goaltender you hold nearly no value, 1B and premium backup were easily available as free asset for little money and term in free agency, Bernier, Hutton, Mrazek, Halak, Lehner, some of them will be 1G for their team, none of them cost as much as Ian Cole which is a 4th D at best, Jay Beagle a 3rd liner at best cost more than most of them. Value wise drafting goaltenders seem to give you a poor return. Therefore, since their trade market tend to be lower you might be better off selecting forwards and defensemen which have higher market value and subsequently trade them for goaltenders if need be. An additional benefit to this strategy is that since you will tend to have fewer goaltenders in your system it should be easier for you to attract the top young goaltending UFAs in need of an entry-level deal which there is a higher proportion of available compared to other positions most year due to the previously explained higher variance in development. On top of this, MTL had Price all those years, they have their premium 1G, and like I just said, backup hold no value, no need to get one by draft, we got ours on waivers, the prospect challenging him, Lindgren, we signed him as a free agent, same for our 4th goaltender, McNiven, despite drafting Fucale in the 2nd rounds a few years ago. To me, goalies are almost a waste of picks. We don't even know when Price will need a replacement, bad timing can cause problems, even if we draft a star we may be forced to trade him away despite the comparative lower market value because we have no room, NYR had to trade away Ranta because of Lunqvist and his contract even though they are soon going to be in need of a replacement for him. To me, we are better off doing something like New Jersey, they traded away a high-value pick for a young premium 1G, Schneider, near Brodeur retirement and they are good in net for another decade, to me that's a lot wiser than selecting a goaltender 5 years prior at the similar draft position of the traded pick and hope for the best (add to this that the goaltenders they drafted to prepare for Brodeur retirement where not worth it for them in the end, forcing them to make the trade).

    Drafting a proportional amount of F/D/G is not necessarily the best strategy even if it seems like the intuitive thing to do. I am pretty sure my logic holds up, I doubt GMs and scouts can think that through though. You can take a flyer with a late rounder at times though, that's fine with me. Goalie have low value, but 7th rounder as well, I you really like a goaltender, sure go for it in the later rounds, the low value pick negates the negative impact of variance as well.

    - Aside from the Sergachev for Drouin trade, MTL traded none of their picks for value yet, so the comparison holds well. Simon Bourque was (I believe) a throw-in in the Armia trade, holding no real value. Another one is Andrighetto which after being put on waivers been traded for another player that we waived, Martinsen, that we traded away for another player of even lesser value that already walked away.
    - On the flip side, we clearly had the assets to do a package deal trade for a player like O'Reilly.

    _____
    Nationality of players drafted:
    • SWE: 13
    • RUS: 10
    • CAN: 7
    • USA: 6
    • FIN: 3
    • CZE: 2
    • SVK: 1
    • DNK: 1
    League drafted from:
    • SHL: 13
    • OHL: 7
    • KHL: 7
    • WHL: 5
    • QMJHL: 5
    • Czech: 2
    • USHL: 2
    • Liiga: 2
    • BCHL: 2
    (europeans leagues such as SHL include their minor leagues (SuperElit) and 2nd division (Allsvenskan))

    I drafted a disproportionate amount of Swedes and Russians over the years compare to CAN and US players. I really have a inclination towards the Swedes and their leagues.

    Other interesting notes:
    • Factoring only players in their first year of eligibility, I tend to draft players of younger age than average.
    • By looking at the size of the players I drafted thus far, it is evident that I am still looking to draft players with size whenever I can, even though this model is regarded as outdated to a certain extent, but I do not draft any primarily grinder type player.
    • I finally drafted my first french Canadian in 2018, the journalists would probably think I am bias against them and purposely despise them by now.
    ____
    Trading disclaimer:
    I know that for some the trades is removing some credibility/realism to this exercise, but my main goal is to have fun here, I like cheering for players I draft and while I am at it I prefer cheering for the ones I was very high on. Teams have the flexibility to make trades for players which are high on their list, to a certain extent it is an unfair handicap if I can't ever do the same. At the end of the day, I traded fewer picks than MTL during that time frame. You also have to realize that MTL do trades on the draft floor that is matching their list, not mine, those trades may line up badly against my list, purely following their trades is therefore by default unrealistic to follow in some ways (I still use their trade because it would be too confusing to compare years later). And if I do end up trading it isn't like they are a guarantor of success, they could backfire if I reach for the wrong player, on top of this I am making sure I am losing in terms of trade value. Either way, I let you know the players I drafted without trades so you are free to compare as you like.

    _____
    I will attempt to update every year.

    Don't hesitate if you have any remarks or questions.
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2018
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  2. Carl33

    Carl33 Registered User

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    WoW amazing post and effort good job
     
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  3. Mallard

    Mallard Registered User

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    Very impressed and curious to see your draft rankings for 2018!

    Have you marketed this software anywhere or received attention?
     
  4. ProspectsFanatic

    ProspectsFanatic Jonatan Berggren

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    Nop not yet, I tried to reach out to NHL scouts and independent scouting sites, some accepted to enter in contact with me, but it didn't went further than that. I am now looking for a software programmer to create on actual program out of it so it would be easier marketable.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2018
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  5. Daximus

    Daximus Aces Charles

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    Pretty cool exercise I think I may do the same starting with this draft.
     
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  6. Lebowski

    Lebowski El Duderino

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    If the point is to compare your picks with that of a specific franchise, I'm not sure why you'd allow yourself to trade picks around the way you do. Kind of defeats the purpose in my opinion.
     
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  7. ProspectsFanatic

    ProspectsFanatic Jonatan Berggren

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    My goal is to do as best of a scouting job as I could, when I think a trade is clearly necessary according to my rankings I do it, like any team should at the draft, I try not to abuse it, I guess I also get more enjoyment out of it by actually drafting the players I like the most if it is possible, and sort of cheering for them, otherwise I still put who I would have drafted at that rank without the trades, so you are free to compare the results as you like. My original goal was admittedly the comparison, the more the years went by the less it actually mattered to me, as you can see I have now programmed a software in order to have a full complete solid list of the best prospects instead of solely concentrating on the propects at the different Montreal picks range.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2018
  8. StreetHawk

    StreetHawk Registered User

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    You can't really say what will happen with trades in terms of teams accepting the offer. That's why I also concur that you should just pick where the Habs or any team picks at. Plus, you are already changing the results when you take players off the board at different points than where they got selected. No clue what other teams have rated ahead on their draft boards.

    But it's an interesting exercise to do the draft and compare your results against the team.
     
  9. ProspectsFanatic

    ProspectsFanatic Jonatan Berggren

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    Honestly I don't really care, thats how I like to do it. You can compare with Beauvillier and Kostin+Brook and remove the acquired picks if you like instead, those are the ones. Not having the luxury of ever making trades gives me an handicap which I don't see why I should impose on myself, I only do it if it feels like a necessity to me. Montreal move up in 2014 in the 3rd round, they also acquired a 7th in in 2018, I keep their trades because it is simpler, but I don't see why I wouldn't have that luxury to do the same when I really like a player. In the end I guess it is a matter of opinion, compare as you like.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2018
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  10. Lays

    Lays Vitaly Swagtsov

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    This is actually extremely impressive wow
     
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  11. ProspectsFanatic

    ProspectsFanatic Jonatan Berggren

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    Thank you I appreciate, gives me motivation to continue ;)
     
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  12. BomaLightDevils

    BomaLightDevils Registered User

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    Excellent pick with Jesper Bratt.
     
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  13. tony d

    tony d Registered User Sponsor

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    Always like seeing stuff like that, great to see this, really appreciate the effort you put into this.
     
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  14. ProspectsFanatic

    ProspectsFanatic Jonatan Berggren

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    He had great stats, already in the Allvsk in his draft year, dominant in the SuperElit the year before, late july birthday, I watched some highlights he clearly had skills and speed, I was also reading reports that he was a great 2-way player, 6th rounder? Don't ask me why? Size was the only issue, but this is the same for many other players, some of which get picks in the first round.
     
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  15. Fantomas

    Fantomas Registered User

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    Most scouting hires are nepotism appointments, so it is not too surprising a poster on hfboards would do better than an NHL team.

    Laughed my butt off at the McCagg quote.
     
  16. zharkenby

    zharkenby Registered User

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    How the hell did you know about Bratt is my biggest question.. followed by how the hell do you not have an nhl scouting job. This is extremely impressive
     
  17. Sand94

    Sand94 Registered User

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    Look, I get you put a lot of effort into this and it’s a much better job than what most people on here tend to do, but at the end of the day none of these results are worth anything because you’re drafting them after the draft has already happened...

    If you truly wanted to compare yourself to the actual scouts, you would have to make the selection at the time of the pick. Instead, you have the benefit of hindsight as to who is being picked where. Even if it’s only a couple of weeks it changes everything.

    In real life you might pick a player early because you think he might be off the board next round, but in this case you know he’s not off the board yet. You also do quite a bit of “messing around” with the picks after the fact as well as changing positions.

    As fun as this was to do, nobody can really take this seriously as far as an actual scouting job. I’m sorry to be so blunt about it, but it wouldn’t go over too well in a sales pitch. Like you are mentioning getting this developed from a programmer.


    Anyway cool little project, but don’t get too caught up in it... it’s still fantasy.
     
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  18. montreal

    montreal Go Habs Go

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    Very interesting. I have gotten away from following draft eligible players for some time now but it seems like a different way to look at the draft and I would think NHL teams would find this useful if they don't already have something like this in place. Good luck to you with it!
     
  19. ProspectsFanatic

    ProspectsFanatic Jonatan Berggren

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    Wether or not your points are valid in discrediting my work, I still don’t have the choice to do it after the draft, most infos and videos about prospects come just before or right after the draft. I am not just purely going to look at stats, I need to know more in order to have somewhat of a fair assessment of each player. You know, this is not a full time job, I don’t have time to watch junior games of all draft eligible players during the year and be fully prepared at the draft.

    "Having hindsight as to who is being picked where" is a valid point which I am aware of and I am attempting to be careful about, what I try to do is concentrate on producing my own list and simply following it, and let the players fall as they may. I am not eradicating the possibility that there might still be some sort of accidental biases in that fashion, at the same time like I demonstrated, for example in the 2014 draft, I didn't went with what would have been the most optimal list for me, I put Kase in the 5th round even though I could have had the flexibility of having him lower and use his pick to better fruition. It is important to me to be fair in that regard, also making everything fit perfectly removes the satisfaction of truly saying you called it when going off the board, like I did for Kase. I would admit though that when we are speaking of the trades I made it gets more sketchy, would I really done it without insight? I like to believe that the answer is yes. In the end, that's why I let you know who at that rank I would have picked, either way the original goal was to have fun with it, not becoming a scout.

    All this being said, you are just presenting one side of the coin, you mentioned edges I have over the actual draft which might affect my results positively, I also have downsides, the major one is time, if I had time to actually watch players play it could also have helped me have even better results. You can simply state that I am in an advantageous position and leave it as that.

    With regards to the "sale pitch", I actually didn’t use those draft picks in my sale pitch, partly for the reasons you have just given, but also because it isn’t really relevant to the software, I tried to sell it for what it is, if the software is objectively a useful tool I just need to be good in explaining why that actually is. But maybe I should use it as an extra argument, even though it is a bit iffy to sort of gain more credibility. Will see. I haven’t really tried hard in making something out of it, that was just a pass time, including programming the software, I ended up having good results and producing something which I believe to be of interest, will see if it can lead me anywhere. What's for sure is that I won't let your points stop me from moving forward with it. I could also create the software to use it on a website with a subscription fee or something of that sort, not sure if the level of interest is there, but that is what I also meant by marketable.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2018
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  20. ginomini

    ginomini Registered User

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    Very interesting work ! Whether we think your picks are legit or not according to what real NHL scouts do, we can't discredit the fact that you are able to find NHL talent.
    Even if you not have been able to pick X or Z player in real life, you still liked them on draft day and that is what really matters !


    Great job !

    The Bratt pick is obviously the most Impressive.

    I've done a similar thing with Montreal 1st and 2nd round pick since 2013.
    My results are:

    2013
    Hartman
    Lehkonen
    Dauphin
    Bjorkstrand

    2014
    Ho-Sang

    2015
    Beauvillier

    2016
    Jost

    2017
    Timmins
    Brook
    Morand
     
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  21. ProspectsFanatic

    ProspectsFanatic Jonatan Berggren

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    For those who followed the draft this year, you probably know that I spent a lot more time this year scouting and working on my rankings through the software. As promised I would update every year this thread with my new selections and see how things develop. OP has been updated with 2018 selections and roster update (waited for free agency acquisitions to post it).

    Please note, do not take this too seriously by arguing the comparative credibility; making some parallel how it doesn't perfectly match real life in some ways. It can't be like real life and I am not a full-time scout, it is all for fun.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2018
  22. hitchhiker42

    hitchhiker42 Registered User

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    Your premise is excellent. I work with modeling every day. When done correctly, it is a significant improvement over human decision-making/risk-taking. The reason is that is greatly reduces bias. In fact, and I have mentioned this before, if you can continue to enhance the underlying model, one day you won't need to watch film or take consensus scouting opinions. A model will be able to improve on human scouting in most cases. That is not to say any model will always and everywhere outperform an individual. Just that with a big enough sample size (say three years of drafting) the advantage will belong to the model.
     
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  23. leospaceman3434

    leospaceman3434 Registered User

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    Good stuff.

    On an unrelated note, what do you think of Rasmus Sandin and Sean Durzi? Just asking because you seem to have a good idea about prospects.
     
  24. bigdog16

    bigdog16 Registered User

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    Pretty cool, nice work. Enjoy reading this stuff
     
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  25. Deficient Mode

    Deficient Mode Registered User

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    Good work for the dig at McCagg alone lol.

    Missing Point and Kase probably the two that hurt the most, and seemed very suspect even at the time. I doubt Point would have developed his skating the same way in Montreal though.
     

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