Draft risers vs fallers

[895]

Does anyone know if there's any data on this?

Prospect A is ranked 10th in midterm rankings. Prospect B is 30th.

At the year end ranking, Prospect A drops to 20. Prospect B jumps to 21.

Who is more likely to have a better career? Prospect B has more momentum but yet at the time of the draft, Prospect A is still considered the superior prospect.

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[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Is this solely based on rankings, or are you looking info on players who fell.from their ranking/ went higher than expected ?

 

[Michael Farkas]

What ranking are you referring to? Some are not really rankings, per se...they're more just watch lists. They aren't special or gospel.

 

[Brodeur]

It's tough to say since we're only privy to public rankings like Central Scouting which aren't perfect to say the least. There's an excerpt in Gare Joyce's book "Future Greats and Heartbreaks" that goes something like "NHL teams respect what Central does with their limited resources, but generally disregard their final rankings."

Just because a guy is falling up/down Central's ranking doesn't necessarily mean that the same would be reflected on a team's list. In the context of the book, I remember an example of two teammates Michael Ratchuk and Nigel Williams. Columbus had Ratchuk ranked over Williams which was contrary to what all the public rankings had (for example, Central had Williams #11 and Ratchuk #81 on their final list). Then as things unfolded, Ratchuk was drafted before Williams so Joyce pointed out that Columbus might not have been contrary to how other NHL clubs felt.

 

[tealhockey]

It's tough to say since we're only privy to public rankings like Central Scouting which aren't perfect to say the least. There's an excerpt in Gare Joyce's book "Future Greats and Heartbreaks" that goes something like "NHL teams respect what Central does with their limited resources, but generally disregard their final rankings."

Just because a guy is falling up/down Central's ranking doesn't necessarily mean that the same would be reflected on a team's list. In the context of the book, I remember an example of two teammates Michael Ratchuk and Nigel Williams. Columbus had Ratchuk ranked over Williams which was contrary to what all the public rankings had (for example, Central had Williams #11 and Ratchuk #81 on their final list). Then as things unfolded, Ratchuk was drafted before Williams so Joyce pointed out that Columbus might not have been contrary to how other NHL clubs felt.

I find that Central, at least in the last decade, seems to get the 'range' on a player mostly right. Maybe they under-rate guys and list some guys who shouldn't be listed, especially in the preliminary listings, but I'm rarely like 'what the hell...'