Speculation: Draft lottery to be held 4/9

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
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8,336
The problem is, those numbers don't add up for me to believe that he's going to be a great offensive player. Can you give me a comparison of a similar player with those numbers that went on to have top-line career?

What numbers are you talking about?

Stats? You want me to scout based on stat watching? But if you want to get into it, Elias Pettersson wasn't "good enough" to play for an SHL team in his draft year and spent all of it in Allsvenskan. William Nylander scored 1 goal and 6 assists in 22 SHL games in his draft year, but spent most of his year loaned to Allsvenskan. Mika Zibanejad scored 5 goals and 4 assists in 26 SHL games in his draft year, but spend most of his year in U20 SuperElit. Erik Karlsson played in 7 games for the same Frolunda organization and scored 1 goal in his draft year.

For those reading this and wonder where Raymond is, he has 4 goals and 9 points in 31 games for his SHL team, and 3 goals and 14 points in 9 games for his U20 SuperElit team. Surely you can find something to compare to in the players listed above. We don't have TOI numbers, but we do know that Raymond frequently plays under 10 minutes, and in some games has played like 2-3 minutes total.

The reality is, kids don't get to play much in the SHL. Some organizations will loan them to Allsvenskan, but unfortunately for Raymond, he was essentially held hostage by his SHL team, and while he was underutilized in the U20 WJC, he was still dangerous for that Sweden team.

Or are you talking about his measurements? Because Marner was about the same size in juniors as Raymond is right now.
 
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19 for president

Registered User
Apr 28, 2002
2,832
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What numbers are you talking about?

Stats? You want me to scout based on stat watching? But if you want to get into it, Elias Pettersson wasn't "good enough" to play for an SHL team in his draft year and spent all of it in Allsvenskan. William Nylander scored 1 goal and 6 assists in 22 SHL games in his draft year, but spent most of his year loaned to Allsvenskan. Mika Zibanejad scored 5 goals and 4 assists in 26 SHL games in his draft year, but spend most of his year in U20 SuperElit. Erik Karlsson played in 7 games for the same Frolunda organization and scored 1 goal in his draft year.

For those reading this and wonder where Raymond is, he has 4 goals and 9 points in 31 games for his SHL team, and 3 goals and 14 points in 9 games for his U20 SuperElit team. Surely you can find something to compare to in the players listed above. We don't have TOI numbers, but we do know that Raymond frequently plays under 10 minutes, and in some games has played like 2-3 minutes total.

The reality is, kids don't get to play much in the SHL. Some organizations will loan them to Allsvenskan, but unfortunately for Raymond, he was essentially held hostage by his SHL team, and while he was underutilized in the U20 WJC, he was still dangerous for that Sweden team.

Or are you talking about his measurements? Because Marner was about the same size in juniors as Raymond is right now.

A more Red Wing related example would be Zetterberg. After he was drafted in 99, he spent the whole 99/00 season in the Swe tier 2 league. He didn't play for Timra in the SEL until the 00/01 season.
 

Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,130
7,492
Bellingham, WA
If Helm had hands, he would be Helm with offense. Helm has stone hands.
Helm does have hands, the problem is that his hands don't work as fast as his feet do. There's been many penalty kills where he's been able to shield the puck from multiple guys through skating and stick handling. When it comes to the breakaway though when he's going full speed, he can't control the puck or shoot it. He's also bad shooting under pressure, and doesn't possess a one timer. But he isn't entirely without puck skills. Even Larkin and AA have issues with puck handling at full speed, there's only one McDavid in the league...
 

SuperScript29

Registered User
Nov 17, 2017
2,069
1,673
What numbers are you talking about?

Stats? You want me to scout based on stat watching? But if you want to get into it, Elias Pettersson wasn't "good enough" to play for an SHL team in his draft year and spent all of it in Allsvenskan. William Nylander scored 1 goal and 6 assists in 22 SHL games in his draft year, but spent most of his year loaned to Allsvenskan. Mika Zibanejad scored 5 goals and 4 assists in 26 SHL games in his draft year, but spend most of his year in U20 SuperElit. Erik Karlsson played in 7 games for the same Frolunda organization and scored 1 goal in his draft year.

For those reading this and wonder where Raymond is, he has 4 goals and 9 points in 31 games for his SHL team, and 3 goals and 14 points in 9 games for his U20 SuperElit team. Surely you can find something to compare to in the players listed above. We don't have TOI numbers, but we do know that Raymond frequently plays under 10 minutes, and in some games has played like 2-3 minutes total.

The reality is, kids don't get to play much in the SHL. Some organizations will loan them to Allsvenskan, but unfortunately for Raymond, he was essentially held hostage by his SHL team, and while he was underutilized in the U20 WJC, he was still dangerous for that Sweden team.

Or are you talking about his measurements? Because Marner was about the same size in juniors as Raymond is right now.

Fair enough, but you could also say that the data is inconclusive because he was not given an opportunity to showcase his full arsenal. My assumption is a combination of stats, games I've seen, and clips. So I'm not an expert nor do I have the big picture, but from what I see it's probably best to go with Drysdale, or a center if you want a forward (Perfetti or Rossi). Granted I hope we land a top-3 pick so we don't have to have this argument.
 

Steve Yzerlland

Registered User
Jul 18, 2018
7,885
3,784
We have less than a 1/5 chance in getting Lafrenière. Those are horrible odds. This rebuild will come from the "hidden gems" great contracts , great signings and solid trades. Good luck Wings nation. We are going to need it!
 
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ArmChairGM89

Registered User
Dec 10, 2019
1,552
1,034
The bright side to losing the draft lottery is we’ll have a lot more to talk about.

1. no conversation
2. Debate between 2 players (essentially)
3. Debate between 3 players (essentially)
4. Debate between 6 or so players

Though, I’d rather have nothing to talk about. Lol
 

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
9,470
8,336
Fair enough, but you could also say that the data is inconclusive because he was not given an opportunity to showcase his full arsenal. My assumption is a combination of stats, games I've seen, and clips. So I'm not an expert nor do I have the big picture, but from what I see it's probably best to go with Drysdale, or a center if you want a forward (Perfetti or Rossi). Granted I hope we land a top-3 pick so we don't have to have this argument.

I mean I have Raymond #2 right now, so odds are I will be ready to debate this, but it's not that I have Raymond leaps and bounds ahead of others, he's just atop my second tier considering the type or prospect I think he is. I am also high on Rossi, QB, and Stutzle. I do think Drysdale is a fantastic prospect, but I can't ignore how miserable our forwards are at possessing the puck and picking apart opponents (it's also easier to hold off on D because of the current strength of the 2021 D group). I am lukewarm on Lundell, and Holtz just feels too similar to Mantha and Zadina as lock in RW without adding an extra dimension or bringing something new to the table. Perfetti is really just too underwhelming of an athlete for me at this point, not to say that he isn't a special hockey mind, which he is, I just think I'm more comfortable in the skating and abilities of the other players. (I would still have Perfetti above Lundell and Holtz). I also don't think Perfetti has much of a chance at all of sticking as a center, so that has some influence of what I see in his projection.

The only player I would be somewhat disappointed with among all the players above would be Lundell. And even then I wouldn't be that upset. I have seen something worth being excited about in all of the players, and it's really just me pretending that I know as much as our front office, so there's no reason to be outraged.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,684
The bright side to losing the draft lottery is we’ll have a lot more to talk about.

1. no conversation
2. Debate between 2 players (essentially)
3. Debate between 3 players (essentially)
4. Debate between 6 or so players

Though, I’d rather have nothing to talk about. Lol

Would be nice to have something that unifies as opposed to divides for a change...
 

Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
5,980
2,698
Fair enough, but you could also say that the data is inconclusive because he was not given an opportunity to showcase his full arsenal. My assumption is a combination of stats, games I've seen, and clips. So I'm not an expert nor do I have the big picture, but from what I see it's probably best to go with Drysdale, or a center if you want a forward (Perfetti or Rossi). Granted I hope we land a top-3 pick so we don't have to have this argument.

Perfetti is not playing center at the NHL level and Rossi playing center is far from guaranteed at his size (with his skating).
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,078
12,078
Tampere, Finland
They will take Lafreniere, but I will still be plenty worried that Byfield has the actual best ceiling in this draft. I still really do believe that.

Really impressive when comparing his stats to other 17,5 year olds. Like Rossi was that age 1 year ago.

Did some own data, Points per Team goals per age etc, adjusted system...

And of course that kind of body/reach is a nightmare to play against in a playoff series.

Just imagine 6'6 Rasmussen - 6'4 Byfield - 6'5 Mantha as a shut-down Top Line.
 

Dotter

THE ATHLETIC IS GARBAGE
Jul 2, 2014
8,439
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Imprisonment, TN
goo.gl
I'm a fan of size. I think the NHL is on it's way to getting bigger again.

I was high on Byfield but he went cold for me -- but my opinion doesn't matter, I trust Yzerman's scouts over my armchair stat watching. I really really like Stuezel and would be ecstatic if we take him. If we win the lottery, then Lafreniere is our boy. I do think that makes some other winger in our system expandable.

I.DO.NOT.WANT.A.DMAN. with our first pick! The 2021 draft will have many to chose from.
 

DetroitRed

Crashes the Crease
Apr 7, 2013
2,871
951
Detroit
I think the defender Vs forward question depends on when the wings pick and who is available.

To me, defenders are really important and defense is my favorite position. So, full disclosure there. Yet, I do see a marked need for increasing talent on offense, especially with Athanasiou gone. Andreas was, after all, supposed to be a part of the rebuild. And he could score.

I guess the counter argument, which also shouldn't be overlooked, is that it may still be premature to count on any of the young defenders besides Hronek. Now, I would be surprised if Seider didn't pan out but I think some question remains as to how well. The same question even remains but to a much lesser degree with Hronek. There are some other notable defense prospects, but again, questions remain. Meanwhile, the Wings do have some well established forwards.

Drysdale at fourth is worth considering. But there are needs all over the ice. So, this is really a year when they can go BPA without reservations. Of course, the further you get into the prospect pool, the less people agree on who should be considered BPA where. So one huge positive is they'll be picking early.
 

Retire91

Stevey Y you our Guy
May 31, 2010
6,135
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The trouble with a top D pick is it needs to be someone like Seth Jones. Drysdale looks like the best D man and no one is going to blink if he goes top 5 but not sure he is BPA over the other forwards. So far it looks like we got Hronek, Lindstrom, and Seider as locks for our top 4. With a couple longshots still in the pipeline. I wouldn't hate a Drysdale pick but I also would wonder if we went BPA. I don't mind looking at D in the later rounds.
 

HisNoodliness

The Karate Kid and ASP Kai
Jun 29, 2014
3,652
2,022
Toronto
The trouble with a top D pick is it needs to be someone like Seth Jones. Drysdale looks like the best D man and no one is going to blink if he goes top 5 but not sure he is BPA over the other forwards. So far it looks like we got Hronek, Lindstrom, and Seider as locks for our top 4. With a couple longshots still in the pipeline. I wouldn't hate a Drysdale pick but I also would wonder if we went BPA. I don't mind looking at D in the later rounds.

I think Drysdale has a solid argument for BPA at second overall. Personally he's 4 on my list but his skating and hockey sense make me feel like he's a really safe projection to be at least a second pairing D. I don't think he has the top tier offensive ability of Makar or Hughes, but like them I think he could be an elite puck carrier and distributor through the neutral zone at the next level. He's one of those D that tilts the ice so consistently.

Also projecting Seider as a lock for a top 4 D is a little bold, but I understand. It's so depressing not to and he does look great in GR... But it's way too early to pencil Lindstrom in there. He's not a lock to be an NHL D yet, let alone top 4. I think skipping Drysdale because we feel comfortable with our D prospects would be a mistake. Hronek is the only one that's shown the ability to be a top 4 D at the NHL level and he's been struggling defensively trying to take on tougher matchups (understandably). I'd prefer Stutzle or Byfield to Drysdale, and would be totally fine with the next tier of forwards (Raymond, Rossi etc). But if we draft Drysdale I'd be ecstatic and think we'd be pretty foolish to let our current pipeline dissuade us from drafting anyone. We need elite help everywhere.
 

Retire91

Stevey Y you our Guy
May 31, 2010
6,135
1,563
I think Drysdale has a solid argument for BPA at second overall. Personally he's 4 on my list but his skating and hockey sense make me feel like he's a really safe projection to be at least a second pairing D. I don't think he has the top tier offensive ability of Makar or Hughes, but like them I think he could be an elite puck carrier and distributor through the neutral zone at the next level. He's one of those D that tilts the ice so consistently.

Also projecting Seider as a lock for a top 4 D is a little bold, but I understand. It's so depressing not to and he does look great in GR... But it's way too early to pencil Lindstrom in there. He's not a lock to be an NHL D yet, let alone top 4. I think skipping Drysdale because we feel comfortable with our D prospects would be a mistake. Hronek is the only one that's shown the ability to be a top 4 D at the NHL level and he's been struggling defensively trying to take on tougher matchups (understandably). I'd prefer Stutzle or Byfield to Drysdale, and would be totally fine with the next tier of forwards (Raymond, Rossi etc). But if we draft Drysdale I'd be ecstatic and think we'd be pretty foolish to let our current pipeline dissuade us from drafting anyone. We need elite help everywhere.

Totally agree and I don't think Barron is going to fall to the second round so if we don't take Drysdale we will certainly miss on the top D prospects and go into project territory. It's honestly a really tough call. Unless we could trade up somehow like taking on some team's terrible contract and pull in something like a Byfield / Barron. That would certainly make a big impact in our prospect depth.

I have a hard time not penciling in Seider but I totally get what you are saying. Lindstrom also although at least we have had a look at Lindstrom and so far it looks like he can hold up as a defensive D.
 
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Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,078
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Tampere, Finland
2021 draft will give answers for prospect depth at defence.

You guys are just wasting your time in this Drysdale-speculation. Not our option this year, I could give easily smaller proablities for him than Lafreniere to be our pick.

Different scenarios next year.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,684
The trouble with a top D pick is it needs to be someone like Seth Jones. Drysdale looks like the best D man and no one is going to blink if he goes top 5 but not sure he is BPA over the other forwards. So far it looks like we got Hronek, Lindstrom, and Seider as locks for our top 4. With a couple longshots still in the pipeline. I wouldn't hate a Drysdale pick but I also would wonder if we went BPA. I don't mind looking at D in the later rounds.

If we take Drysdale it would most certainly be because we feel he is BPA, given we already have Hronek/Seider in the mix.

I also wouldn't call a guy with 15 career NHL games a lock for our future top 4 yet.
 
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WolvesAndWings

Wherever I go, the strawman follows
Mar 18, 2017
2,543
3,050
4th overall is a good pick.

Not when the team is this bad. We need 1-3 because all 3 of them are probably franchise players. #4 is most likely a piece. A damn good piece, but ultimately still just a piece.

Of course there's always the Makar/Pettersson situations that could happen, but the top 3 in this draft are much stronger than the top 3 in recent drafts.
 

ArmChairGM89

Registered User
Dec 10, 2019
1,552
1,034
Not when the team is this bad. We need 1-3 because all 3 of them are probably franchise players. #4 is most likely a piece. A damn good piece, but ultimately still just a piece.

Of course there's always the Makar/Pettersson situations that could happen, but the top 3 in this draft are much stronger than the top 3 in recent drafts.
I think the top 8 in this draft are stronger than normal. I think drysdale is equally as capable of being a “franchise player” as stutzle or byfield. So I’m perfectly happy drafting 4th. Odds are, yzermans board does not look the same as ours, so being happy or unhappy with a draft spot based on player rankings is futile anyway. If the draft went lafreniere, stutzle, byfield I’d be ecstatic to get drysdale, but the odds that’s who Yzerman takes are very slim. Better chance that your wrong than right after the first pick this year.
 
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lilidk

Registered User
Mar 4, 2008
9,592
3,426
The bright side to losing the draft lottery is we’ll have a lot more to talk about.

1. no conversation
2. Debate between 2 players (essentially)
3. Debate between 3 players (essentially)
4. Debate between 6 or so players

Though, I’d rather have nothing to talk about. Lol
and concentrate on rest of the draft
 

Retire91

Stevey Y you our Guy
May 31, 2010
6,135
1,563
Not when the team is this bad. We need 1-3 because all 3 of them are probably franchise players. #4 is most likely a piece. A damn good piece, but ultimately still just a piece.

Of course there's always the Makar/Pettersson situations that could happen, but the top 3 in this draft are much stronger than the top 3 in recent drafts.

This is what burns my ass about the rebuild. Now that we are rebuilding we not only facing tougher odds to get top picks we are also competing in the lottery whenever an expansion team comes in . Players like McDavid, Ekbland, Eichel, Draisaitl were drafted before the lottery changes and before expansion and were drafted years after Lidstrom retired. But we got those bubble first round exits to show for it so I guess its a wash.
 

OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
17,008
17,995
I think the top 8 in this draft are stronger than normal. I think drysdale is equally as capable of being a “franchise player” as stutzle or byfield. So I’m perfectly happy drafting 4th. Odds are, yzermans board does not look the same as ours, so being happy or unhappy with a draft spot based on player rankings is futile anyway. If the draft went lafreniere, stutzle, byfield I’d be ecstatic to get drysdale, but the odds that’s who Yzerman takes are very slim. Better chance that your wrong than right after the first pick this year.

I think Drysdale has the potential to be a top pair defenseman but I don't know if he'll be THE franchise defenseman, or just a good top pairing guy. Watching him play he looks like he has a really high floor and won't be worse than a really good 2nd pair defenseman because his skating. I'd stay away from him in this draft though. The 2021 draft looks like it's especially deep on defense through the first two rounds and I'd even go as far as saying that 5 of the top 10 will be defensemen. If we land another top 4 pick next year we'll have a good chance at Luke Hughes, Brandt Clarke, Carson Lambos or Owen Power. Of that group Luke Hughes has impressed the hell out of me whenever I've seen the kid play this year for the USNTDP. He's bigger than Quinn and almost as good a skater.
 

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