Draft Lottery Thread - All Tank Talk here

[eternalbedhead]

I'm sorry, but we've only missed the playoffs once in seven years, which was last year. Won the Pacific division five years in a row. And in those five years, we went to the conference finals twice. What is this "the sky has been falling forever" agenda you're pushing?

Unless mediocre means you don't win a cup. If that's the case, then there's an exorbitant amount of mediocre teams, which includes last year's Tampa team. I just want to gauge how often you move the goal posts here.

We would have made it to the SCF against Chicago if we could have closed out (and that was partly on BM for not doing enough at the deadline), and we certainly would have beat Nashville in 2017 if we hadn't been beset by injuries, particularly with regards to goaltending. The sky isn't falling, and I find such an insinuation on his part to be hilarious. We were a good team, and good teams eventually need to rebuild. That's not a big deal. If we can get back to the same level of competition that we were at for the last few years, I think we should consider the rebuild a relative success -- obviously, you want the Cup but luck isn't always on your side. People seem to forget how close we were to the Finals in both the years we competed for the opportunity.

 

[alcolol]

Points in six of the last eight games is not ideal. Here's to hoping we lose the majority of our next nine games in advance of the trade deadline.

 

[GermanRocket7]

All aboard!

 

[AngelDuck]

Time to get this one going again. Current Standings for worst in the league:

1. Detroit - LOL
2. LA - 49 points
3. Ottawa - 53 points
4. Anaheim - 55 points
5. SJ - 56 points
T5. NJD - 56 points

Every other team has at least 62 points.

 

[Leonardo87]

Time to get this one going again. Current Standings for worst in the league:

1. Detroit - LOL
2. LA - 49 points
3. Ottawa - 53 points
4. Anaheim - 55 points
5. SJ - 56 points
T5. NJD - 56 points

Every other team has at least 62 points.

Crazy how Ottawa has a legit chance at two Top 5 picks.

 

[JabbaJabba]

Crazy how Ottawa has a legit chance at two Top 5 picks.

That's some pro-tanking.

If Ottawa wins against Montreal, they are going to be tied with Anaheim. Would be pretty good draft lotterywise to sink into top 3. Just need to shut down Fowler for rest of the season and trade away useful players to sink further.

 

[Static]

Pretty good night for our pick last night. The two teams directly ahead (NJ) and behind (SJ) went to OT with each other. We now trail NJ by three points and are tied with San Jose with one less game played.

Chicago and Ottawa also won.

 

[bsu]

Way too early for this lol

 

[jiggsawpuzzle35]

Way too early for this lol

Hey we haven't been in the playoff race for the past couple of seasons so it has come to this. Some fans this time of year get excited about their team potentially getting that one last playoff spot. Us, we get excited about getting closer to dead last.

 

[Static]

Way too early for this lol

Less than 20 games left, this is the only race left.

That doesn't mean we should be rooting for us to lose, just everyone else.

 

[Leonardo87]

Less than 20 games left, this is the only race left.

That doesn't mean we should be rooting for us to lose, just everyone else.

Playoffs are not happening, and a Top 5 pick would help speed the rebuild up, especially if they can get a Top 3 pick. Would be huge! Won't root for them to lose, and like to see some competitive hockey, score some goals, see some individual players succeed, the kids take another step, but if they lose the game then it's not the end of the world with the draft lottery on the near horizon.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Playoffs are not happening, and a Top 5 pick would help speed the rebuild up, especially if they can get a Top 3 pick. Would be huge! Won't root for them to lose, and like to see some competitive hockey, score some goals, see some individual players succeed, the kids take another step, but if they lose the game then it's not the end of the world with the draft lottery on the near horizon.

I want to be entertained, and I want to beat certain teams (like Edmonton). Other than that, it is what it is.

 

[MMC]

This team needs Lafreniere more than any other team out there. Wings have Seider, Zadina, and Larkin, Kings have Turcotte and the best prospect pool in the league, Sens have 2 cracks at top 5 picks and will likely have better odds for both than we will, Devils have Hughes and Hischier, Sharks have Meier and Hertl. We have Zegras and Lindholm?

 

[Leonardo87]

I want to be entertained, and I want to beat certain teams (like Edmonton). Other than that, it is what it is.

As I said before, I'm flying out next week and catching some games, already got the tickets. I want to see an effort and some good hockey. I don't see them getting out of the bottom 5, and that's ok.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

As I said before, I'm flying out next week and catching some games, already got the tickets. I want to see an effort and some good hockey. I don't see them getting out of the bottom 5, and that's ok.

I’ll need a coffee report before you go back home.

 

[eternalbedhead]

An absolutely perfect scenario unfolded today:

Ottawa beat Detroit (not that Detroit is losing last place but they got a point out of it too)
LA beat New Jersey, and New Jersey crucially got a point out of it too.
San Jose is murdering Pittsburgh (lol) right now and surely is going to win.

While I could SO scream at the Ducks' unprecedented success in the past few games (A TWO GAME WINNING STREAK?! IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD!), this is really good for our lottery chances.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

So as we head to March, here is my (rather detailed) breakdown of the standings and the potential probabilities of where we could end up picking (warning for TL;DR is that you may head to my summary section at the end of this crap if you want since I don't get paid by the word):

OUT OF RANGE (LOW END EDITION)
1. Detroit Red Wings (35 points lol)

COULD GO EITHER WAY (LOW END EDITION WITHIN 6-10 POINTS)
2. Los Angeles Kings (54 points, 65 games played)

IN THE HUNT (WITHIN 4 POINTS EITHER WAY)
3. Ottawa Senators (58 points, 66 games played)
4. San Jose Sharks (60 points, 65 games played)
5. Anaheim Ducks (60 points, 64 games played)
6. New Jersey Devils (62 points, 64 games played)

COULD GO EITHER WAY (HIGH END EDITION WITHIN 6-10 POINTS)
7/8. Chicago Blackhawks/Buffalo Sabres (66 points, 65 games played, Buffalo Sabres hold RW tiebreaker)
9. Montreal Canadiens (69 points, 65 games played)

OUT OF RANGE (HIGH END EDITION, SOME TEAMS HAVE 3 GAMES IN HAND, BUT I THINK IT'S A MATHEMATICAL IMPROBABILITY TO CATCH TEAMS 10+ POINTS AHEAD)
10. Minnesota Wild (71 points, same amount of games played)
11/12. Arizona Coyotes/Winnipeg Jets (72 points); Nashville is in the 2nd wild card with 72 points and 3 games in hand.
13-15. Florida (73 points), New York Rangers (74 points), Carolina Hurricanes (75 points)

To summarize, the back-end of the draft will change but that doesn't matter since IMO, most of these teams are uncatchable. My thoughts are that the Ducks will be settling in the pre-draft lottery odds somewhere between 3-6 with an outside shot of getting as low as 2 (depending on H2H with the Kings) or as high as 8 or 9 (if they go on an insane run to close the year and the Blackhawks and Canadiens completely fade).

The way I've projected it, that puts the Ducks with odds between 7.5% and 11.5% to get the #1 pick and odds between 23.3% and 33.9% to land a top 3 pick. That seems pretty good, I'll take my chances riding with that.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

An absolutely perfect scenario unfolded today:

Ottawa beat Detroit (not that Detroit is losing last place but they got a point out of it too)
LA beat New Jersey, and New Jersey crucially got a point out of it too.
San Jose is murdering Pittsburgh (lol) right now and surely is going to win.

While I could SO scream at the Ducks' unprecedented success in the past few games (A TWO GAME WINNING STREAK?! IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD!), this is really good for our lottery chances.

Perfect would've been NJ getting the two points and Buffalo winning. But you probably should chill a bit lol, theres 120 games left between us and the teams within 6 points, that's a lot of living and dying to do in 35 days for something pretty meaningless.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

So as we head to March, here is my (rather detailed) breakdown of the standings and the potential probabilities of where we could end up picking (warning for TL;DR is that you may head to my summary section at the end of this crap if you want since I don't get paid by the word):

OUT OF RANGE (LOW END EDITION)
1. Detroit Red Wings (37 points lol)

COULD GO EITHER WAY (LOW END EDITION WITHIN 6-10 POINTS)
2. Los Angeles Kings (54 points, 65 games played)

IN THE HUNT (WITHIN 4 POINTS EITHER WAY)
3. Ottawa Senators (58 points, 66 games played)
4. San Jose Sharks (60 points, 65 games played)
5. Anaheim Ducks (60 points, 64 games played)
6. New Jersey Devils (62 points, 64 games played)

COULD GO EITHER WAY (HIGH END EDITION WITHIN 6-10 POINTS)
7/8. Chicago Blackhawks/Buffalo Sabres (66 points, 65 games played, Buffalo Sabres hold RW tiebreaker)
9. Montreal Canadiens (69 points, 65 games played)

OUT OF RANGE (HIGH END EDITION, SOME TEAMS HAVE 3 GAMES IN HAND, BUT I THINK IT'S A MATHEMATICAL IMPROBABILITY TO CATCH TEAMS 10+ POINTS AHEAD)
10. Minnesota Wild (71 points, same amount of games played)
11/12. Arizona Coyotes/Winnipeg Jets (72 points); Nashville is in the 2nd wild card with 72 points and 3 games in hand.
13-15. Florida (73 points), New York Rangers (74 points), Carolina Hurricanes (75 points)

To summarize, the back-end of the draft will change but that doesn't matter since IMO, most of these teams are uncatchable. My thoughts are that the Ducks will be settling in the pre-draft lottery odds somewhere between 3-6 with an outside shot of getting as low as 2 (depending on H2H with the Kings) or as high as 8 or 9 (if they go on an insane run to close the year and the Blackhawks and Canadiens completely fade).

The way I've projected it, that puts the Ducks with odds between 7.5% and 11.5% to get the #1 pick and odds between 23.3% and 33.9% to land a top 3 pick. That seems pretty good, I'll take my chances riding with that.

And because I decided to split my dissertation into two parts, here are the key games for Team Tank to keep their eyes on:

New Jersey (tomorrow, 3/1) L 0-3
at Chicago (3/3) L 2-6
2X LA (away 3/14, home 4/3)
Montreal (3/15)
at San Jose (4/4)

This concludes my posts here, thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

 

[JabbaJabba]

Next game is against New Jersey and a very important game to lose.

 

[Son of Gib]

“I’m not trying to win every game here, gonna be honest.” -GMBM tank squad confirmed.

 

[gilfaizon]

Sharks have nothing to gain from tanking, I assume they'll finish higher than the Ducks.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Sharks have nothing to gain from tanking, I assume they'll finish higher than the Ducks.

Not true at all. Everyone acts like teams who have traded their 1st don’t also get a benefit from drafting higher in subsequent rounds. The 32nd pick is better than the 47th pick when you’re talent deprived.

 

[Ducks DVM]

And because I decided to split my dissertation into two parts, here are the key games for Team Tank to keep their eyes on:

New Jersey (tomorrow, 3/1) L 0-3
at Chicago (3/3) L 2-6
2X LA (away 3/14, home 4/3)
Montreal (3/15)
at San Jose (4/4)

This concludes my posts here, thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

More of this, if you’ve got the time

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Not true at all. Everyone acts like teams who have traded their 1st don’t also get a benefit from drafting higher in subsequent rounds. The 32nd pick is better than the 47th pick when you’re talent deprived.

It also assumes that the players give a shit about that, which they don't. Over half the Sharks lineup are competing for jobs right now, their play isn't going to be influenced one way or another by what pick the team gets.