Draft Lottery - May 7th @ 6:30 ET, ESPN (upd: #1 SJS, #2 CHI, #3 ANA)

saskriders

Can't Hold Leads
Sep 11, 2010
25,084
1,617
Calgary
As much as I'd love to see it live.

showing it live doesn't have a production value to it.
They'd need to make a show with it, how about ads?
There is 20 seconds between each ball picked. is it enough?

People would stop watch after 1st overall was picked
There is no reason they can't put more time between draws. 20 seconds was just a number they chose. Any other amount of time would be just as random. They could turn off the machine for 3 minutes for a commercial, or just run it non stop. Still random.


Regarding people stopping watching after the 1st pick:

Instead of having a draw for each pick, they could have each lottery combination associated with a certain draft order rather than a team moving up. So for example 1-2-3-4-5 could mean San Jose 1st, Chicago 2nd, then the rest. As well as however many combinations are required to give that order the right odds.


If anything the only thing stopping it from being better TV than card flipping is Ernst and Young requiring it to be the way it is in the video because of "professionalism", not because of probability.
 
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SjMilhouse

Registered User
Jul 18, 2012
2,217
2,708
That pic can't be real, cause the winner moves up 10, so how would Utah end up at #2?
Sharks win the first draw (18% chance) and Utah wins the 2nd.

If someone outside of the top 10 wins draw 1, Sharks default to 1st overall I think is how it works
 
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Coffey

☠️not a homer☠️
Sponsor
Sep 27, 2017
10,674
16,774
Circuit Circus
San Jose won the lottery to stay at number 1. Utah got the second winning ball.
Sharks win the first draw (18% chance) and Utah wins the 2nd.

If someone outside of the top 10 wins draw 1, Sharks default to 1st overall I think is how it works
Oh yea, there are more than one draw.
If you asked me 10 years ago, I'd be a pro at the rules.
 

Shepard

Registered User
Apr 13, 2012
1,359
51
The Calgary Flames deserve the 1st pick, the Flames should get it.

The Calgary Flames deserve the 1st pick, hopefully the Flames get it.

If it gives you any hope I've ran the lottery simulator once and the Flames won the first pick.

They do have some good youth on their team, if they win the draft lotto they'll be in great shape going forward

I am feeling better around this rebuild so far than I was about the last 80 rebuilds. Eventually one of these has to work out for us lol. We really need that #1 dman, but Celebrini and Cooley as our top two centers would also be a super exciting outcome if we're so lucky.
 

saskriders

Can't Hold Leads
Sep 11, 2010
25,084
1,617
Calgary
Tanknation is reporting a bunch of teams have a slim chance at pick number 3, the Hockey Guy posted the same odds.

Is that right? I don't see how Ottawa has a 0.2% chance of getting the 3rd pick. How does that work?
 
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Captain3rdLine

Registered User
Sep 24, 2020
6,838
8,033
Tanknation is reporting a bunch of teams have a slim chance at pick number 3, the Hockey Guy posted the same odds.

Is that right? I don't see how Ottawa has a 0.2% chance of getting the 3rd pick. How does that work?
Flyers win the lottery for the 1st pick and Ottawa wins 2nd pick. Flyers can only move up 10 spots from 12th because of the lottery rules so they pick 2nd and Ottawa moves back to 3rd.

Sharks stay at #1
 

Drumman44

Kyle Beach Deserved Better
May 2, 2017
1,791
2,464
Tanknation is reporting a bunch of teams have a slim chance at pick number 3, the Hockey Guy posted the same odds.

Is that right? I don't see how Ottawa has a 0.2% chance of getting the 3rd pick. How does that work?
It’s basically a case where Ottawa wins the lottery but so does another team that is barred from moving up more than 10 spots. Therefore, San Jose stays at 1 and Ottawa’s second place win slides to third
 

The Flying Octopus

Registered User
Sep 18, 2017
1,368
1,084
Bloomfield Hills, MI
IMG_1550.png
 
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