Draft Day Megathread (BS-APPROVED, NO DOUBTERS ALLOWED!)

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Foggy14

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I like reading Steve's stuff, but some of his grades seem a little skewed for effect (and clicks).

As much as I enjoy seeing the Rags get some grief, a "D" for a draft when their first three picks are Kravtsov, Miller and Lundkvist seems a bit harsh. Yeah, the trade-up to get Miller was expensive, but his potential upside is pretty high.

The A- for the Flyers looks a little generous since Ron, himself, aknowledeged that we didn't get one of the puck moving defensemen they really liked.

I don't think Farabee has any more reason to worry about the press box than Provorov and Patrick.
We'll see about O'Brien, hopefully he's more polished than TK by the time he comes out.

Players bench themselves, cherry picking is for orchards, bad cross ice passes for junior hockey.
Ghost learned, TK learned . . .

Both players still get benched. When will the coach learn?

I've got to go with wank on this one.

They'll watch Jake make a mistake (probably an egregious turnover). Nothing will happen. They'll try the same thing, and ride the pine.

Hak won't be able to help himself. They're two yutes.

 

DrinkFightFlyers

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Jesus, could you imagine if Buffalo got Jack Hughes too?
That would be pretty unstoppable, especially if ROR sticks around. Eichel-Hughes-Mittelstadt-Girgensons down the middle, with Ristolainen and Dahlin on the blueline. They could trade ROR for literally any top six winger they can get and play anyone in the entire world in goal and still be a tough team to play against.
 

FlyTimmo

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Jul 10, 2013
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That would be pretty unstoppable, especially if ROR sticks around. Eichel-Hughes-Mittelstadt-Girgensons down the middle, with Ristolainen and Dahlin on the blueline. They could trade ROR for literally any top six winger they can get and play anyone in the entire world in goal and still be a tough team to play against.

Risto sucks
 
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DrinkFightFlyers

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Risto sucks
He absolutely does not suck. He is not a superstar and he's not winning a Norris any time soon, but he has scored 40+ points the last three years in a row and playing on a better team likely improves not only that, but his defensive play as well. I'd love another 40 point scoring defenseman on this team even if he wasn't a stud defensively.
 

FlyTimmo

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He absolutely does not suck. He is not a superstar and he's not winning a Norris any time soon, but he has scored 40+ points the last three years in a row and playing on a better team likely improves not only that, but his defensive play as well. I'd love another 40 point scoring defenseman on this team even if he wasn't a stud defensively.

He is terrible at ES and is terrible defensively. He right now should be a 5th defenseman on a good team and should be used on a 2nd PP unit. Outside of Dahlin of course, they have a pretty weak future D-core.
 

DrinkFightFlyers

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He is terrible at ES and is terrible defensively. He right now should be a 5th defenseman on a good team and should be used on a 2nd PP unit. Outside of Dahlin of course, they have a pretty weak future D-core.
I think we are talking about two different people. Ristolainen is almost 50/50 for his ES v. Special Teams points (he had four more Even Strength goals and nine fewer Even Strength assists, so that's what a -5 in point differential?). He's also playing 25+ minutes per night on the absolute worst team in the league. I mean I understand that he is not a superstar, but if you think he is terrible and a #5 defenseman, I'm not sure what a good defenseman looks like, especially a 23 year old one scoring 40+ points per season. What do you think Ghost would look like on that team? Provorov? Come on.
 

FlyersMania2

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So many pages. What's the HF consensus on our draft? I watched round 1 but it was quite boring. It seems our second pick may have more upside than the first; though admittedly I am basing that off of minimal information and my own opinion. Insights appreciated.
 

DrinkFightFlyers

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So many pages. What's the HF consensus on our draft? I watched round 1 but it was quite boring. It seems our second pick may have more upside than the first; though admittedly I am basing that off of minimal information and my own opinion. Insights appreciated.
Seems like "meh" is the consensus. That's certainly my take. The only pick I am real juiced up about is Farabee. The O'Brien and Ginning picks are growing on me. I know nothing of the goalie but it can't hurt to have a bunch of potential goalies in the pipeline, especially with our history. Then you have to two overage re-drafters that are interesting but not all that flashy. Westfalt from Sweden is intriguing but I don't think anyone expects too much from him. I think that is everyone.
 

FlyTimmo

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I think we are talking about two different people. Ristolainen is almost 50/50 for his ES v. Special Teams points (he had four more Even Strength goals and nine fewer Even Strength assists, so that's what a -5 in point differential?). He's also playing 25+ minutes per night on the absolute worst team in the league. I mean I understand that he is not a superstar, but if you think he is terrible and a #5 defenseman, I'm not sure what a good defenseman looks like, especially a 23 year old one scoring 40+ points per season. What do you think Ghost would look like on that team? Provorov? Come on.

38 total points. ES 15, so no, not 50/50. And yeah, he is playing big minutes there. But, he wouldn't be doing that nearly anywhere else and for obvious reasons.

The Flyers averaged about 1/2 a goal more per game. Risto accounted for roughly ~9% of his teams points this year. After adjusting their team point difference between the Flyers and Sabres, Risto should have only 7 points if he were on the Flyers. Then again, he wouldn't get 1st line powerplay time as Gostisbehere is significantly better. He wouldn't have gotten as much ES strength ice time. So, he probably ends up scoring a lot less points, a lot.

A good contending team shouldn't aspire to have Risto as anything other than a bottom-3 defenseman.
 

DrinkFightFlyers

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38 total points. ES 15, so no, not 50/50. And yeah, he is playing big minutes there. But, he wouldn't be doing that nearly anywhere else and for obvious reasons.

The Flyers averaged about 1/2 a goal more per game. Risto accounted for roughly ~9% of his teams points this year. After adjusting their team point difference between the Flyers and Sabres, Risto should have only 7 points if he were on the Flyers. Then again, he wouldn't get 1st line powerplay time as Gostisbehere is significantly better. He wouldn't have gotten as much ES strength ice time. So, he probably ends up scoring a lot less points, a lot.

A good contending team shouldn't aspire to have Risto as anything other than a bottom-3 defenseman.
First of all, your numbers are off. He had 41 points, 18 ES and 23 PP, which is a five point swing like I said..."almost" 50/50.

As for the rest, I am a little confused. How are you "adjusting their team point difference" to come to the conclusion that he would have 7 points for the Flyers? How many points would Jack Eichel have on the Flyers based off whatever formula you are using there? Would our #5 defenseman put up 40+ points three years in a row?

The Sabres are awful. He nearly doubled the next defender on his team in almost ten fewer games. I don't care what you say that is not "terrible" under any definition. You don't play 26 minutes per night by accident and you don't double the next player at your position if you are terrible (especially when you are playing on what is indisputably a terrible team). Even if all his points were on the power play, or if 43% ES point percentage is awful, this would still be a good player. But oh well. He sucks. #5 defenseman.
 

Larry44

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Seems like "meh" is the consensus. That's certainly my take. The only pick I am real juiced up about is Farabee. The O'Brien and Ginning picks are growing on me. I know nothing of the goalie but it can't hurt to have a bunch of potential goalies in the pipeline, especially with our history. Then you have to two overage re-drafters that are interesting but not all that flashy. Westfalt from Sweden is intriguing but I don't think anyone expects too much from him. I think that is everyone.
Good analysis. Meh. If O'Brien turns into the next Roenick and Farabee is Amonte, we'll be very lucky... :)
 

wankstifier

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38 total points. ES 15, so no, not 50/50. And yeah, he is playing big minutes there. But, he wouldn't be doing that nearly anywhere else and for obvious reasons.

The Flyers averaged about 1/2 a goal more per game. Risto accounted for roughly ~9% of his teams points this year. After adjusting their team point difference between the Flyers and Sabres, Risto should have only 7 points if he were on the Flyers. Then again, he wouldn't get 1st line powerplay time as Gostisbehere is significantly better. He wouldn't have gotten as much ES strength ice time. So, he probably ends up scoring a lot less points, a lot.

A good contending team shouldn't aspire to have Risto as anything other than a bottom-3 defenseman.

He had 41 points, according to both nhl.com and H-R.

Also, not sure where you're getting the 9% from? Ristolainen played 73/82 games and the Sabres scored 198 goals in 82 games. Roughly adjusting for games played:

(((73/82)* 198)/41)^-1 = 23%​
 

wankstifier

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First of all, your numbers are off. He had 41 points, 18 ES and 23 PP, which is a five point swing like I said..."almost" 50/50.

As for the rest, I am a little confused. How are you "adjusting their team point difference" to come to the conclusion that he would have 7 points for the Flyers? How many points would Jack Eichel have on the Flyers based off whatever formula you are using there? Would our #5 defenseman put up 40+ points three years in a row?

The Sabres are awful. He nearly doubled the next defender on his team in almost ten fewer games. I don't care what you say that is not "terrible" under any definition. You don't play 26 minutes per night by accident and you don't double the next player at your position if you are terrible (especially when you are playing on what is indisputably a terrible team). Even if all his points were on the power play, or if 43% ES point percentage is awful, this would still be a good player. But oh well. He sucks. #5 defenseman.

Eichel would've had ~99 points over 82 games.

By the same logic, Giroux would have ~ 66 points in 67 games

Shows what a steaming pile of shit Buffalo is
 
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FlyTimmo

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He had 41 points, according to both nhl.com and H-R.

Also, not sure where you're getting the 9% from? Ristolainen played 73/82 games and the Sabres scored 198 goals in 82 games. Roughly adjusting for games played:

(((73/82)* 198)/41)^-1 = 23%​

As a team they scored 486 points. 486* (73/82) = 432. 41/432 = 9.4%. Hence he accounted for ~9-10% of his teams points.
 

FlyTimmo

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First of all, your numbers are off. He had 41 points, 18 ES and 23 PP, which is a five point swing like I said..."almost" 50/50.

As for the rest, I am a little confused. How are you "adjusting their team point difference" to come to the conclusion that he would have 7 points for the Flyers? How many points would Jack Eichel have on the Flyers based off whatever formula you are using there? Would our #5 defenseman put up 40+ points three years in a row?

The Sabres are awful. He nearly doubled the next defender on his team in almost ten fewer games. I don't care what you say that is not "terrible" under any definition. You don't play 26 minutes per night by accident and you don't double the next player at your position if you are terrible (especially when you are playing on what is indisputably a terrible team). Even if all his points were on the power play, or if 43% ES point percentage is awful, this would still be a good player. But oh well. He sucks. #5 defenseman.

Yep. Glad you see it my way.
 

Magua

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Who are the favorites for 2019 risers? Anttoni Honka looks interesting

Kinda hard to predict risers before the season, and they're still usually consensus guys right now. Kappo Kakko could be a favorite for next behind Hughes. Honka could certainly be a 1st. Finland brought a bunch of good players, and like 3 potential smaller 1st round d-men. Kim Nousiainen caught my eye from the back end. He's got some dynamic skill and moxie. We don't draft Finns though. Swedes you got Bjornfot and Soderstrom on defense.

Raphael Lavoie could be a sneaky top 10 riser. He's 6'5 and incredibly smart and a snipuh. He kind of reminds me of Scheifele but at wing actually. There's Bowen Byram and Peyton Krebs too, who could be top 10. Dylan Cozens.

USA has Caufield (5'6 *buzzer noise*), Turcotte, York, etc.
 

DrinkFightFlyers

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As a team they scored 486 points. 486* (73/82) = 432. 41/432 = 9.4%. Hence he accounted for ~9-10% of his teams points.
But how does that translate to Risto scoring 7 points on the Flyers? Are you suggesting that he would have the exact same percentage points across teams and that would be static for everyone? No matter how bad you think he is you know he would not actually score 7 points on this team.
 

wankstifier

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As a team they scored 486 points. 486* (73/82) = 432. 41/432 = 9.4%. Hence he accounted for ~9-10% of his teams points.

I disagree with the methodology as it doesn't isolate Ristolainen's contributions. You subtract Ristolainen's 41 points, yet keep all of the points influenced by him? At least, that's what I'm guessing ( 527-41 = 486). It's tough to understand Ristolainen's influence, too. He was on the ice for more than half of Buffalo's total goals (101)--in 73 games no less!
 

wankstifier

All glory to the harvest god
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But how does that translate to Risto scoring 7 points on the Flyers? Are you suggesting that he would have the exact same percentage points across teams and that would be static for everyone? No matter how bad you think he is you know he would not actually score 7 points on this team.

I'd like to see the reasoning here as well.

I mean... Hagg just scored 9 points last season
 
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