Draft Class Strength - Looking on the past, Defencemen 2005-13

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
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Tampere, Finland
These are my feelings of the Red Wings drafting history since 2005. My memories. My look in the past.

The near history of drafting defencemen. And our inability of it.

What is interesting in the past, it looks like almost always Red Wings scouting staff tried to find a defenceman from a weak defenceman class, and/or, when the class was strong, they went after forwards.
This is the main factor why our guys have failed. They didn’t understand when to hunt defencemen from a strong class. They just went to hunt, randomly.

Let’s start from 2005, when Cap was implemented and drafting own cheap talent became more competitive than ever.

***

2005 draft produced 7-8 +20min NHL defencemen. Those were Kris Letang, Jack Johnson, M-A. Vlasic, Keith Yandle, Marc Staal, Matt Niskanen, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Anton Strålman.

Red Wings drafted Jakub Kindl #19 overall. Before him went only Johnson and Staal.

Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon (R.I.P.), Sasha Pokulok and Ryan Parent busted before him. So 5/7 top picks did bust. Next two guys after him, Matt Lashoff and Joe Finley also busted. So 7/9 of TOP9 picked defencemen did bust.

Everybody was totally lost with this D class? This is the weirdest year ever in general.

Then Matt Niskanen went #28. Vlasic went at #38.

(Everybody hates this draft speculation how “you could have got this and that player”, but I just want to make a look for it. It doesn’t hurt. Enjoy. We can learn something about it. Hate it or love it. At least somebody writes about it, and not just whines.)

Okay?

Instead of Kindl you could have got Niskanen/Vlasic. At next 2nd round you take Abdelkader and at 3rd round, instead of forward Cristopher Löfberg (total bust) you still can take Hjalmarsson or Yandle.

6 defencemen who did have a +20min TOI career went after Red Wings 1st pick and 5 defencemen went after Red Wings 2nd pick. There was a lot of guys found outside from 1st round and they just weren't on the map with these guys.

***

2006 was a weak defenceman class. Only 3 guys have become +20min TOI players. They were #1 Erik Johnson, #46 Jeff Petry and #160 Andrew McDonald.

Red Wings went full after forwards. That was definitely the right tactical choice in this draft. Only Logan Pyett was picked on the second-last pick #212.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,077
Tampere, Finland
2007 was half-poor class again, with 6-7 +20min TOI career defencemen. Those were Karl Alzner, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Shattenkirk, PK Subban, Jake Muzzin, Justin Braun and Alec Martinez.

Wings drafted Brendan Smith #27.

Alzner, McDonagh, Shattenkirk went before him.

Subban, Braun, Muzzin and Martinez after.


It's crazy to think, that PK Subban was there, and we didn't pick him. He went #43 overall. Can anyone remember what was the case? Best black guy in Hockey in Detroit would have been phenomenal attendance drawer.

After Smith, Red Wings went after forwards, which was kind of the right move. But picking Smith was the wrong move. Tactics were right, but knowledge wrong.

After losing Jiri Fischer forever, they should have started worrying more about the defence. Next two drafts would have helped a lot.


***


2008 was the SUPER STRONG draft for Defencemen, strongest of all in last 13 years. It produced 15-16 +20min TOI defenceman in NHL. Same as last 3 drafts combined.

Those were Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo, Roman Josi, TJ Brodie, John Carlson, Tyler Myers, Travis Hamonic, Jared Spurgeon, Zach Bogosian, Jake Gardiner, Slava Voynov, Michael DelZotto, Marco Scandella, Justin Schultz and Jason Demers. Superb draft for defencemen.

What will the Red Wings do?

They f*** up their 1st rounder to a GOALTENDER, which is the biggest mistake you can make in draft. Tom McCollum, #30 overall. Goalies are crapshoot, don't NEVER EVER EVER use a higher than 3rd rounder for a goalie. That would read as a first NOTE for a GM on my book, if I ever write a book of “drafting 18-year olds in Hockey”.

It still pisses me of.

7 of those 16 guys went before Tom McCollum pick.

9 went after. There was Voynov, Josi, Hamonic, Schultz and Scandella going on the 2nd round. When Red Wings drafted Max Nicastro #91 on the 3rd, there was still TJ Brodie, Spurgeon and Demers left.

Braden Holtby went 2 pick after this Nicastro pick. Washington did it right, went after goalies on the 3rd round, just like Tyler Wright has done nowadays. No wonder George McPhee did that phenom with Vegas and created the Washington SC core.

How about picking Josi #30 and Holtby #91 if you would have even basics of the basics right ? They must still have been drunk at draft after the 2008 Stanley Cup party.

Maybe I can forgive that because of the Cup.

But can't forgive that Tom McCollum.

Where did that come from? I remember he wasn't even high on ranks. Jacob Markström went right after him, and he was at least hyped, even though he either hasn't pan out as s Star. McCollum came from nowhere, stupid f***ing unneeded gamble with a 1st rounder.

This was a superior D draft and they went after a goalie and mostly forwards. Why on Earth, why?

Go heavily after defencemen on that draft and we could have a solid defence nowadays build around something like DeKeyser, Voynov/Josi, Brodie/Demers, with a cost of Gustav Nyquist.

Undrafted Dan DeKeyser belonged on this 2008 draft class (making it even stronger age class), so at least we got a Free Agent later on with a different route. But that thing had nothing to do with drafting.
 

Flowah

Registered User
Nov 30, 2009
10,249
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This was a superior D draft and they went after a goalie and mostly forwards. Why on Earth, why?
Because hockey drafting is such a crapshoot. Hate beating on this dead horse but I just don't see any team consistently doing well at the draft for extended periods.

That's one HELL of a draft class in 2008 though. Jeez.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,077
Tampere, Finland
Then, on 2009, we are entering on another mistake we did make. Of course, future is not easy to predict, but you have to look on the history to be better prepared for the future.

If THE mistake wasn’t the 2008 draft, it was the 2009 draft.

2009 was the second strongest Defenceman draft after 2008. It produced 11 defencemen with +20min career TOI. Victor Hedman, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Tyson Barrie, Sami Vatanen, Mattias Ekholm, David Savard, Dmitri Kulikov, Nick Leddy, Dmitri Orlov and Ryan Ellis.

At least Red Wings tried to go after defencemen, but first three pics were forwards.

First defenceman pick was #90 overall Gleason Fournier. 8/11 of best defenceman had already gone.

Savard, Ekholm and Vatanen went right after him, so there was options and just our own pick was totally wrong.

After 3rd round there was no TOP4 guys left, when Wings started picking other defencemen. We got Nick Jensen on later rounds, but he is a 3rd pair guy.

Getting a package of Landon Ferraro, Tomas Tatar and Andrej Nestrasil instead of going after defencemen in this second strongest defenceman draft feels again as a very bad choice. Tatar started to help the team at 2013-14, and there was already the same need on defence.

Imo, this 2009 should have been the STARTING POINT to catch a young defencemen core. Rafalski's contract was up in 2012 and so was Lidström's and Stuart’s. Three guys were possibly walking away on same year. 2009 draftees would have had their ELCs ending on 2012. They would have been ready to jump in as 2nd pair guys, when Kronwall’s and guys are promoted to 1st pair. Behind Kronner, they would have grown to take the torch from him afterwards on their prime. Like Having Ekholm or Vatanen. Vatanen would have been a Ralfaski-copy. Could already take that role after 2011. Ekholm a Stuart-type, maybe better version.

When Rafalski retired 1 year earlier at 2011, some 2008 draftee like Voynov would have been ready to jump in on bigger role. And when Lidström retires at 2012, some 2009 draftee like Ekholm would have been ready to jump for a bigger role.

Our timing was just totally f***ed up. Actions for the 2012 defence DOOMSDAY should have started in 2008 draft, at least in 2009. It didn’t start until 2011.

***

So what happens at 2010 draft?

Red Wings still went full after forwards. But on that year that was reasonable. 2010 defenceman class was very weak. Only 3 guys became +20min TOI NHL regulars. Justin Faulk, Cam Fowler and John Klingberg.

Fowler went before Sheahan pick, so there was only 2 good defenceman avalailable on Red Wings #21 pick. It’s unreasonable to suggest, that you would have get those 2 only options after that.

But Rafalski and Lidström are near the retirement. You should have known this CLASS STRENGTH (weak, alarming!) year before and go heavy after defencemen in 2009 draft. Or know that 2008 is the best ever class. They didn't do/know either one.

They say often that there isn’t a CRYSTAL BALL. But there is, if you work harder.

You can build a draft class estimation based on a CHL drafts. You count the 16-year-olds together, how they were drafted in CHL draft and have that an estimation. You know the best draftin junior organizations and give heavier weight for their draftees etc. Insert the U17 international tournaments data on your estimations and so on. Then you should know at least something of the draft class weights 2 years before the NHL draft for same age classes.

That’s the Crystal Ball.

It gives you a direction of the class values. Are the defencemen better on that class or forwards? I think Jim Nill did not have any clue about these things. Because our draft plans have been so random against the class-tactics. Sometimes they were on the right path, sometimes exact opposite.

Other organizations did know these things. Dale Tallon did talk it all the time.

I think Tyler Wright also knows and has prepared better, I’ve heard those things on his interviews. That’s why I believe in him. He doesn’t talk it straight but you can read between the lines. But what comes to Jim Nill I can think he was just totally lost during 2005-2012.
 

Henkka

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Jan 31, 2004
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Tampere, Finland
When entering to 2011 NHL draft, then the Red Wings scouting staff were fully prepared to rebuild the defence. Rafalski had retired for injury and probable Lidström retirement was coming. Stuart could also leave. But this plan was already a little bit too late.

They thought, “THIS is THE draft we will find our next KEY CORE”. But when you hadn’t created your own Crystal Ball years before, you can’t change the level of the draft class.

2011 was as poor class as 2010. Great D classes on those years would have been great fits for us.

Year before, they went full after forwards and now they try to go full after defenceman. But the class still weak, no matter how hard you push after defencemen.

2011 draft class produced only 4 NHL defencemen with +20min TOI career average. #4 Adam Larsson, #9 Dougie Hamilton, #10 Jonas Brodin and #19 Oscar Klefbom.

This time, all of the TOP4 level NHL defencemen went already at TOP19. Red Wings first pick was #48 overall. Even if we would have had all defencemen after #19 overall, that draft would not have been any better. They are still weak talents.

Wings took Ouellet, Sproul, Bäckman, Nedomlel and Marchenko, and they were good picks versus their class. Nothing wrong there, good catches from later rounds. But in a weak class they played against easy quality of competition in their junior years and never could have succeed against tougher NHL qualcomp, players developed from stronger classes.

It was a plan forced to fail in any case.

***

Then we enter to 2012 season, which should be our ARMAGEDDON on defence. Lidström will retire, Stuart leaves.

During the season will happen the Quincey-trade. We are 2nd on the standings, when Holland throws the 1st rounder, then expected to be #27-30 overall, for Yzerman.

I remember crystal clear, when Holland did the trade, that he spoke something like: “They felt that the next draft is weak, there’s maybe 15 good talents and then a big drop, so trading this low first-rounder felt like trading a 2nd rounder.”

Right after the trade Wings went against injuries for key players like Lidström, Datsyuk, Howard and Helm, and started falling on the standings. Another 1st round exit and the finally the pick was #19 overall. It did have a 10-spot swing on the standings thanks to injury luck.

Yzerman was lucky and got Andrei Vasilevskiy with that pick. Would it have been worse than #24, Vasilevskiy could have ended to Boston and Yzerman proably pick Malcom Subban instead of him. Who ever knows.

But let’s get back to Holland talk. “They felt there’s only 15 1st round talents.”
 

Henkka

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Jan 31, 2004
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That 2012 draft produced 10 TOP4 talents in NHL with +20min career TOI.

It was great draft for defencemen, but Holland traded that 2012 1st for Kyle Quincey. He was proably right that there was only 15 good talents. It was really weak forward draft. It was the Nail Yakupov draft, weakest of the decade. In any other drafts Yakupov would never have been a TOP5 pick, here he was forced to be.

Best 5 forwards in pure scoring from that draft have been Filip Forsberg Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Hertl, Teuvo Teräväinen and Tanner Pearson. All except Forsberg are 2nd liners at maximum. Yakupov is the 6th best and he already left from NHL. He would have a totally different career as a ~10th pick, but begin that 1st overall in crazy Canadian media mental pressure killed something from that guy. Easier developmental path and pressure situation would have made him better, I think. But that’s another story.

So Holland was quite right with that talent-comment. Probably 15 talents, but 10 of them were defencemen. Why not for Red Wings need? Probably more than they ever predicted. He was sending out #29 overall and that “felt like a 2nd rounder”.

Ryan Murray went #2, Griffin Reinhart #4 (bust), Morgan Rielly #5, Hampus Lindholm #6 (best of this class), Matt Dumba #7, Derrick Pouliot, #8 (bust)?, Jacob Trouba #9, Slater Koekkoek #10 (bust?), Cody Ceci #15.

Then there would have been Olli Määttä #22 available with Wings #19 overall, without the Quincey-trade. Or Mike Matheson #23. Jordan Schmaltz went #25 (bust?), Brady Skjej #28.

We drafted #48 at first and there was still Damon Severson, Esa Lindell, Shayne gostinbehere, Jacob Slavin and Colin Miller available. Four of them belong on the +20min TOI group and Miller is having a new life at Vegas. They missed them all. At least they should have known the potential of Miller, he was the defensive pair for Ryan Sproul on his junior days.

Looks like the scouts didn’t have any clue which one will be the better player. Sproul and Miller did score almost equally on those years together, and they had numerous chances to pick Miller on this draft. He went #150 overall to LA Kings and Wings had #48 Frk-pick, #80 Paterson pick, #110 Athanasiou pick and FREAKING MIKE McKEE –pick at #140 overall.

Colin Miller, Ryan Sproul’s multi-year partner is there, and they don’t take him at #140 ? They have seen him multiple times when watching Sproul and can’t see his talent. I just ask, WTF ?

Imo, these were the alarming signals about our scouting staff, which did lead to fire both Jim Nill and Joe McDonell out. Time for a change. Or, more of, Red Wings and Holland were secretly happy that they left.

It was time to start hunting a new scouting director and new eyes.
 

Henkka

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Jan 31, 2004
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2013 draft goes without Jim Nill and McDonell leaves after the draft.

2013 defenceman class seems to be poor with 5-6 TOP4 talents. Those are #4 Seth Jones, #7 Darnell Nurse, #8 Rasmus Ristolainen, #13 Josh Morrissey and #16 Nikita Zadorov and #66 Brett Pesce.

Everybody instead of Pesce went before Red Wings 1st rounder at #18 overall, so they they trade down and draft Anthony Mantha #20 overall. Red Wings go heavily after forwards on this draft, and after seeing all good D going on TOP16, it seems the right tactic. There was just no defencemen left (just Pesce).

They still need defencemen as much as in the past. But this draft doesn’t offer any on lower picks.

***

2014 draft is proably too early to make any conclusions about defencemen class, but it seems to be weak. there's Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, but that's it. So far.

Tyler Wright started as a Scouting Director, and Red Wings went full after forwards. Seems to be a right tactic. Wright picked Dylan Larkin and Jim Nill picked Julius Honka in front of Larkin. Alarming signal of Jim Nill's abilities. Goes after defencemen in a weak D class, when Wright goes after forwards. Honka looks to be 3rd pairing guy at maximum.

So what is the final conclusion?
- 2005, everybody was crapshoot drafting, Kindl was a miss when there was a lot of talent left.
- 2006 was a weak D draft, and they did a right choice to go after forwards.
- 2007 was a poor D draft, and Smith failed like Kindl. Need started to grow after losing Fischer.
- 2008 was the BEST defenceman draft on the last decade, and Red Wings went after a Goalie and forwards. This is the biggest draft-tactical mistake they’ve ever made.
- 2009 was the 2nd best defenceman class and they will go after defencemen too late, from #90 overall. If you would have ability to predict next 2 drafts being poor for defencemen, you should have gone ALL IN after defencemen in earlier rounds of this draft and hunt those forwards from next 2 drafts. – Another big draft-tactical mistake they made.
- 2010 was very weak D draft and they go full after forwards. Right choice, but the defenceman prospect problem is already growing.
- 2011 is also a weak draft and they try to go FULL BLAST after defencemen. All good had already been picked 30 picks before Red Wings first selection. Too late.
- 2012 was a strong defenceman draft but Holland didn’t believe, there would talents left when Wings will draft. This year there was many lower round guys, but the Red Wings scouts weren’t on the board. Full blast should have happened on this year, or 2009 and 2008.
- 2013 was poor for D and they seem to be well on board. When all the good defencemen are gone, go selecting forwards.
- 2014 weak D draft. Red Wings go full after forwards.

All draft classes are hard to predict from 2015 to 2018. But since Nill left, at least on 2013 and 2014, it looks like we were already right on tactics.

2015 seems to be the strongest forward draft for a while. 2016 was also strong. 2017 was talked to be generally a weak draft, don't know about the forward/defence distribution.

2018 was surely a strong defenceman draft, and Wings went again after forwards. Sounds crazy? BUT, they went after them with high 6-32 picks and started taking defencemen at 36. This is totally different starting point than start taking defencemen at #90 overall, like 2009. It was too late.

That 2018 BPA tactic seemed to be right. Even though this was a defenceman draft.
 
Last edited:

Shaman464

No u
May 1, 2009
10,211
4,420
Boston, MA
Because hockey drafting is such a crapshoot. Hate beating on this dead horse but I just don't see any team consistently doing well at the draft for extended periods.

That's one HELL of a draft class in 2008 though. Jeez.
If it were a crap shoot then why do certain teams hit much more often while others seem to strikeout? While there is an element of gambling, one thing that any Wings fan from 5 years ago or before would have told you is that scouting can identify gems others won't see. The Wings lived by being able to scout better than anyone else, its why they lasted as long as they did as a good team. I think though that complacency has lead Detroit to be less willing to take risks, and to allow poor scouts to retain jobs even with bad track records.
 

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
8,733
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Top Secret Moon Base
Great analysis Henkka, thanks...I always wanted to read the "debacle that become our defense", from powerhouse to slaughterhouse. Hopefully they've righted the ship, except that it cost us approx 5 yrs of sub par Dmen, and potentially 1 more Cup. The streak may have been (probably) still be alive @ 27 yrs & counting. I agree that in life, society repeat history, as they don't study it, but only seem to look at recent trends at best.
 

HisNoodliness

The Karate Kid and ASP Kai
Jun 29, 2014
3,652
2,022
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Great analysis, it seems like 2008, 2009 and 2012 were our big opportunities to address the D and we failed to do that. Hopefully our recent drafts can right the ship on D. We still need a leader back there, but I think we've done well to build a solid supporting cast for a #1 if we ever find one.
 
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