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Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Those would be your opinions, I am not required to share them when watching a prospect. End of the day I don't think he is a center nor do I think he can convert. Him not being a center certainly does impact that. I don't feel he is a Kane or Ovechkin caliber player where you would take him as winger at #1 overall either. Especially over a special talent that could play center or even if he converts is a Kane or Ovechkin caliber winger. He isn't in the RNH draft, he is in one with two centers that drive play, one already plays a very complete two way game.

His season and bottom line production is what moved him into my top 5. His trouble transporting the puck and gaining entry is what used to have him outside, but he is a dominant player below the faceoff circles. Like I have said numerous times my issue with Kakko isn't that he won't be a good player. It is that he reminds me a heck of a lot more of Sam Reinhart, Dany Heatley and Rick Nash in terms of wingers. While they were wonderful players and indeed have some dominant seasons they were never players that overly troubled me as opposition. Let them get their goal and beat their team 4-1 or 4-2, you can keep them on the outside of proceedings in the NHL game without impacting you massively. He might be Rantanen, time will tell, I am not as sold on him.

I think Byram is going to bring a ton of offense. I question just how good he will be defensively. He does remind me a lot of Morgan Rielly. I doubt he is there at #6, but to be clear just because guys don't slot in where the industry has them doesn't mean I hate them. I think the two players I actually expected the most heat for were Zegras and Brink. I mean the one guy that really plummeted on my list is I don't think Bobby Brink is more than a superstar AHL player. So in his case he isn't a top 50 player for me as I find him to be kind of a longshot even with all of his skills to make the league. I could see him getting in 100 plus games but he makes me think of Reid Boucher a lot, in fact I like Boucher a little more than I did/do Brink. Guys I am higher on potential wise pass him as a result. Zegras I see as a pure winger and I think so much of what he attempts just isn't going to fly at the NHL level especially with a coach. @Frk It the other day was talking Drouin and that makes a lot of sense as a comparable. I am not sure he has that level of hands in terms of moves around guys and he plays at a slower pace in the junior ranks which gives me more trouble, but when Drouin isn't in one of his hot stretches and shooting the puck enough he goes through pro-longed slumps where he tries low percentage plays and doesn't impact his team for positive stretches.

But we are all going to see things differently, I would love to see your list as a comparison. I have my reasons they might ultimately be wrong but I feel what I feel on a lot of these guys. I stopped caring on the consensus on this a long time ago really. As I have said before you talk to the guys that do this for a living and their draft lists would bend your mind when you look at them versus consensus.

Look, Brink is the ultimate boom/bust guy this year, I’ve told you I think he might slide out of round 1 entirely.

But everything you are saying about Brink was said about Johnny Gaudreau. Brink drove his line in the USHL all year. Everyone says Caufield = DeBrincat, well Brink reminds me of Johnny Hockey and I’ll take him over DeBrincat any day. The risk is there. He’s physically immature and not a great skater for an undersized guy. But the kid eats, breathes, and sleeps hockey. I mean his name is Bobby Orr Brink.

If he gets stronger/quicker he’s going to be better than most of the players in this draft. Just a matter of will he or won’t he.
 
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Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Let me add one other thing. Deviating from the consensus isn’t a crime and shouldn’t be tested as such. Especially when people can elaborate why.

No one had Elias Peterson ranked #1 or #2 and you know what... they should have.

Everyone had Yakupov ranked #1 or #2 and you know what... they shouldn’t have.

I’m all for gathering all the info I can and bouncing ideas off people. But sometimes you just see something different and you are passionate about it. It’s also the best way to humble yourself and learn if you are wrong. It’s what makes this all fun IMO.
 

DatsyukToZetterberg

Alligator!
Apr 3, 2011
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I should preface this and say that this ranking is based almost entirely on a players production. I took into consideration their scoring rates overall, their production at ES, how much of a % of their teams offence they were, their age, and how their scoring rates compared to their league historically.

1. Hughes
-----------------
2. Kakko
-----------------
3. Turcotte
4. Byram
-----------------
5. Zegras
6. Dach
7. Krebs
8. Cozens
9. Newhook
10. Kaliyev
11. Broberg
12. Boldy
13. Caufield
-----------------------
14. Brink
15. Pelletier
16. Heinola
17. Suzuki
18. Podkolzin
19. Harley
20. York
21. Legare
22. Fagemo
23. Seider
24. Tracey
25. Tomasino
---------------------
26. Robertson
27. Dorofeyev
28. Poulin
29. Puistola
30. M. Robertson
31. Holmstrom
32. McMichael
33. Keppen
34. Honka
35. Grewe
36. Hoglander
37. Soderstrom
38. Mastrosimone
39. Leason
40. Lavoie
41. Pinto
----------------------
42. Kolyachonok
43. Foote
44. Thomson
45. Johansson
46. Beaucage
47. Kokkenen
48. Afanasyev
49. Knyazev
50. Maccelli
51. Cajkovic
52. Spence
53. Beckman
54. Rees
55. Alexandrov
56. Fensore
57. Spiridonov
58. Firstov
59. Feuk
60. Jones
61. Serdyuk
62. Korczak


Some other interesting late round players: Ronnie Attard, Luka Burzan, Justin Bergeron, Cody Morgan, Linus Nyman, Nikola Pasic, Kim Nousianinen, Tukka Tieksola, Simon Gnyp, Henry Rybinski, and Kristian Tanus.

And my goalie list is something like this:
1. Knight
2. Konovalov
3. Kochetkov
4. Sogaard
5. Wolf

Edit 1: After some discussion I believe I've been too hard on Podkolzin. While I do still think he lacks the upside of the other players in the 1st tier I think he is firmly in the 14-25 range so he has been moved up to 18th. He was originally 25th and at the start of the top of the 25-41 tier of players.
 
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Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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I should preface this and say that this ranking is based almost entirely on a players production. I took into consideration their scoring rates overall, their production at ES, how much of a % of their teams offence they were, their age, and how their scoring rates compared to their league historically.

1. Hughes
-----------------
2. Kakko
-----------------
3. Turcotte
4. Byram
-----------------
5. Zegras
6. Dach
7. Krebs
8. Cozens
9. Newhook
10. Kaliyev
11. Broberg
12. Boldy
13. Caufield
-----------------------
14. Brink
15. Pelletier
16. Heinola
17. Suzuki
18. Harley
19. York
20. Legare
21. Fagemo
22. Seider
23. Tracey
24. Tomasino
---------------------
25. Podkolzin
26. Robertson
27. Dorofeyev
28. Poulin
29. Puistola
30. M. Robertson
31. Holmstrom
32. McMichael
33. Keppen
34. Honka
35. Grewe
36. Hoglander
37. Soderstrom
38. Mastrosimone
39. Leason
40. Lavoie
41. Pinto
----------------------
42. Kolyachonok
43. Foote
44. Thomson
45. Johansson
46. Beaucage
47. Kokkenen
48. Afanasyev
49. Knyazev
50. Maccelli
51. Cajkovic
52. Spence
53. Beckman
54. Rees
55. Alexandrov
56. Fensore
57. Spiridonov
58. Firstov
59. Feuk
60. Jones
61. Serdyuk
62. Korczak


Some other interesting late round players: Ronnie Attard, Luka Burzan, Justin Bergeron, Cody Morgan, Linus Nyman, Nikola Pasic, Kim Nousianinen, Tukka Tieksola, Simon Gnyp, Henry Rybinski, and Kristian Tanus.

And my goalie list is something like this:
1. Knight
2. Konovalov
3. Kochetkov
4. Sogaard
5. Wolf

Brink and Pelletier should be much higher if you are basing this mostly on stats. I mean Pelletier nearly had the same PPG as Zadina in his draft year.

While Dach and Zegras should be lower.
 
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The Zetterberg Era

Ball Hockey Sucks
Nov 8, 2011
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Look, Brink is the ultimate boom/bust guy this year, I’ve told you I think he might slide out of round 1 entirely.

But everything you are saying about Brink was said about Johnny Gaudreau. Brink drove his line in the USHL all year. Everyone says Caufield = DeBrincat, well Brink reminds me of Johnny Hockey and I’ll take him over DeBrincat any day. The risk is there. He’s physically immature and not a great skater for an undersized guy. But the kid eats, breathes, and sleeps hockey. I mean his name is Bobby Orr Brink.

If he gets stronger/quicker he’s going to be better than most of the players in this draft. Just a matter of will he or won’t he.

I totally understand that and if he does slide out of the first and we sink a pick into him, I will be hoping for everything you just said. What he reminds me of is Bourque's kid, Alexandre Giroux, Darren Haydar and Krog. Several of the other notable guys, I know he can score. We will see how he rounds out, not rooting against him, I just don't know if he is going to be that caliber of scorer up a few leagues and what else does he bring.

I guess I should point out most of those guys played 100 to 200 games, so I do think he will get a taste at some point. Just worried he won't be as dynamic as the smaller guys you just listed an that is because I think the guys you just listed are far superior skaters and they were as prospects.

I am not rooting against any of these people to be right though. I really hope every draft eligible player hits, I just don't see it as easily with some guys compared to others. Brink was a real struggle for me.

Brink and Pelletier should be much higher if you are basing this mostly on stats. I mean Pelletier nearly had the same PPG as Zadina in his draft year.

Whole Dach and Zegras should be lower.

Pelletier is in my next five for sure in terms of me. I wanted to have him higher up, he is one of those guys where you say the puck follows him when I have seen him. Not sure I believe in projecting him all the way up. I was curious where you would put him. Lots of talent and a very good skill set.
 

The Zetterberg Era

Ball Hockey Sucks
Nov 8, 2011
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Ft. Myers, FL
I see caufield as a mini-laine. Cant drive a line but will put up a TON of goals.

Caufield looks like he gives a **** on shifts where he isn't scoring though in terms of defending him on this narrative. I don't think he generates that much power ala Laine, but he also gets himself open a lot which is actually Laine's current biggest problem in terms of people have figured out a bunch of things to do to him 5 on 5 in my opinion. Monster goal scorer though, you live with the problems of a 40 goal scorer for 40 goals. That would be the narrative if we do select him, kid just scores basically every game.
 

Hughes Hefner

Registered User
May 12, 2018
264
170
1. Hughes
2.Kakko
3. Zegras
4. Boldy
5. Byram
6. Dach
7. Newhook
8. Caufield
9. Broberg
10. Harley
11. Cozens
12. Turcotte
13. Podkolzin
14. Lavoie
15. N. Robertson
16. Rees
17. York
18. Knight
19. Fensore
20. Beecher
 

The Zetterberg Era

Ball Hockey Sucks
Nov 8, 2011
40,979
11,612
Ft. Myers, FL
Let me add one other thing. Deviating from the consensus isn’t a crime and shouldn’t be tested as such. Especially when people can elaborate why.

No one had Elias Peterson ranked #1 or #2 and you know what... they should have.

Everyone had Yakupov ranked #1 or #2 and you know what... they shouldn’t have.

I’m all for gathering all the info I can and bouncing ideas off people. But sometimes you just see something different and you are passionate about it. It’s also the best way to humble yourself and learn if you are wrong. It’s what makes this all fun IMO.

You learn a lot from these and I think Draisaitl and Pettersson are some of the reason I am willing to plant Broberg at #4. I was high on those guys, really high on both guys and a lot of times you let the group think impact you and you shouldn't. Also was a big Carlo guy and Horvat guy, why did you like them is an important learning element too.

You're going to be wrong a decent amount but it is fun to project forward on some of these guys.

My biggest miss recently I think is Rantanen so the crowd that thinks I am too harsh on Kakko should probably be excited by that, I have missed on that country and style of player before. Pretty positive he isn't going to be blessed with dropping on the second best player in the leagues line though too in terms of projecting this forward. Still I also liked Milano a lot recently, Fabbri who has been plagued by injury, Merkeley who doesn't look so hot lately. I have the guys I flat out miss on and like you said you look at what you ignored, which red flags did you here that you powered through. I remember when Nick Ebert plummeted down boards and the Kings took him in the 7th I thought they were the smartest people in the building. Now he has signed with Ottawa after some time overseas, but he isn't what I thought he was as a junior player for sure. It happens. I don't claim to be perfect, honestly projecting a 17-18 year old kid without near the details that some of these teams do this with is tough, but it is fun to look back on and what you learn in terms of what makes guys successful or unsuccessful hockey players.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,230
14,731
I totally understand that and if he does slide out of the first and we sink a pick into him, I will be hoping for everything you just said. What he reminds me of is Bourque's kid, Alexandre Giroux, Darren Haydar and Krog. Several of the other notable guys, I know he can score. We will see how he rounds out, not rooting against him, I just don't know if he is going to be that caliber of scorer up a few leagues and what else does he bring.

I guess I should point out most of those guys played 100 to 200 games, so I do think he will get a taste at some point. Just worried he won't be as dynamic as the smaller guys you just listed an that is because I think the guys you just listed are far superior skaters and they were as prospects.

I am not rooting against any of these people to be right though. I really hope every draft eligible player hits, I just don't see it as easily with some guys compared to others. Brink was a real struggle for me.



Pelletier is in my next five for sure in terms of me. I wanted to have him higher up, he is one of those guys where you say the puck follows him when I have seen him. Not sure I believe in projecting him all the way up. I was curious where you would put him. Lots of talent and a very good skill set.

I had Pelletier top 15 most of the year. Maybe he was back of mind because he was hurt down the stretch, but I like him.

He’s not as skilled as his stats might suggest, but he’s smart and he’s determined. Not a perimeter player at all despite being a smaller guy. Would also love it if he was to fall to round 2.
 

The Zetterberg Era

Ball Hockey Sucks
Nov 8, 2011
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Ft. Myers, FL
I had Pelletier top 15 most of the year. Maybe he was back of mind because he was hurt down the stretch, but I like him.

He’s not as skilled as his stats might suggest, but he’s smart and he’s determined. Not a perimeter player at all despite being a smaller guy. Would also love it if he was to fall to round 2.

He is really functionally skilled though. Brenden Gallagher maybe? Not sure he can be that good, but you know a guy that just makes a lot of winning decisions I guess is how I feel about him. Still I am not sure he will play inside as much or has the speed to exploit NHL d-man. But I do like Pelletier, I like that you have enough faith to put him up your board the way you did. I couldn't quite fully commit, but it's nice to see someone I respect a lot on prospects that is that high on him.
 

Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
6,023
2,731
My top 15ish by tier. 5-11 is a really close. I wouldn't be surprised if Boldy or Pods turns out to be the best of them, I just have a strong preference for someone who has shown some capacity to play center. The Krebs injury really hurts that tier. As the season has gone on, I have warmed to Zegras and York and feel slightly less bullish on Cozens as an NHL center. For the longest time I thought he was the most projectable as a center long-term from this tier, but I am starting to have reservations. I think Zegras and Dach have lots of work ahead of them but I can't deny the skill and think they have some shot at playing in the middle moving forward. I find Zegras to be the more consistent of the two in terms of effort which is why I give him the slight preference. Boldy is a super player, but I do have a strong preference for a center given where we are as an organization. I will proudly admit that I am a skating snob, which explains why I have Pods at the end of that group. York gets the nod over Soderstrom based on skating. 14-17 is super, super close. I respect Broberg but don't love him as much as others. I am not convinced that he processes the game quick enough to be an elite puck-moving defensemen. I find him holding onto the puck far too long for my liking. I also don't see him as super creative in the offensive zone. Thus, I have a hard time projecting him in the NHL game, though I certainly think the elite size and skating will ensure an NHL career. He has every right to prove me wrong.

1.) Hughes
2.) Kakko

3.) Byram
4.) Turcotte

5.) Krebs (pre-injury)
6.) Zegras
7.) Dach
8.) Cozens
9.) Boldy
10.) Newhook
11.) Podkolzin

12.) York

13.) Soderstrom

14. ) Seider
15.) Thomson
16.) Heinola
17.) Caufield
18.) Broberg
 

The Zetterberg Era

Ball Hockey Sucks
Nov 8, 2011
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If we took Boldy and said we thought he was going to play center in the pros, I wouldn't kill the pick by the way.

There are several in the scouting community that really do believe he can play center and his shift to wing is because he is still dynamic on the wing and because of what was already on hand in the USA setup. Claude Giroux is a winger/center that played actually a lot more wing in his earlier years before playing a ton more center in the pros but ultimately slid back. I could see that happening with Boldy, I don't think he is necessarily just a winger is what I am driving at, I could totally see a team buying into him and projecting him down the middle. Played center until the USMNTDP as well.
 

DatsyukToZetterberg

Alligator!
Apr 3, 2011
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Brink and Pelletier should be much higher if you are basing this mostly on stats. I mean Pelletier nearly had the same PPG as Zadina in his draft year.

While Dach and Zegras should be lower.

You're probably right about Brink, I went back and forth on where he belonged tier wise. His season this past year was truly something special, though I do wonder how the recent expansion has impacted league scoring. Pelletier I like and he's right on that cusp of being in that 3rd tier tier. That being said I don't think it's fair to say that Zadina was in the top 10 last year, therefore Pelletier should be as well. Zadina was a late Bday and was considerably better at generating offence at ES. I think if you were looking for a similar player based on just his scoring Veleno or Beauviller would be pretty close to Pelletier.

While I did base most of my rankings of off their scoring abilities the top few tiers was more of a combination of clips I've seen/games I've watched and scouting reports from other people. If I had based it entirely on stats we would have Fagemo, Brink, and Kaliyev in the top 5, while they're great prospects I think I'd have a hard time drafting them over Zegras, Dach, etc. I think that the 14-24 is a very "pick by need" area as even now I'm wondering if Fagemo, Legare, or Tomasino belong further up.

That being said, this was my manual attempt at something that I intend on trying to create a model for in the future, hopefully in time for the 2020 draft. When I finish it I'll have to post it and get some feedback but I'm certain it will not look the consensus lists. If it's accurate enough perhaps next year I'd be more confident with ranking the Fagemos, Brinks, and Kaliyevs in the top 5, but as of now I don't have the data to back those positions up.
 
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Lampedampe

Registered User
Feb 26, 2015
2,144
765
I think his potential is through the roof. He is very raw, but I see him routinely make good decisions and I think his defensive toolkit is very underrated. For as much as I like Pietrangelo and Dobson for instance Broberg is them on steroids when I watch them a deluxe version if you will. His skating is dynamic, he uses it to angle guys, he has a big long reach. He converted from forward at 15 which explains his comfort level and ability to attack downhill similar to Burns a converted forward. I get the sensitivity with Smith not panning out here.

But I think Broberg flashes that vision often enough and is developing well. His ceiling is pretty flawless and it is important that when he does show up in games with his age group he thoroughly dominates them and is generally the best player on the entire ice. I also think a part of his step up internationally is he is a guy that thrives when the pace actually does increase and his teammates get better. So in a way he is more suited to the NA style of hockey where you make more one read and react plays. He will take the ice given too and constantly stress out the opposition. He has a bomb of a shot, great agility and his top gear allows him to both sink lower into the offensive zone and wait later than almost all d-man can in terms of his recovery abilities at the line. So he should be a force at holding the line and crashing down the boards to continue zone pressure once he develops better understand or when to go and when to stay. He is very much a projection though and I understand those that are wary of him. He still has a ways to go, but the player he is if he develops the enormous gifts he has is incredibly intriguing. I think he flashes those smarts a lot and I am comfortable projecting that out, but I have always said he is risky especially at #6 and I will understand if they pass for a safer player. But I think his ceiling is really intriguing and I disagree that his hockey IQ is as low as some find it currently, I have seen the big things in his game time and again when watching him where he does go cross seam and open lanes for others, I think he is just more comfortable going solo currently but it will round in. If it doesn't he bottoms out as a top 4 defensive D-man for me that can log huge minutes on your second pair and kill penalties. I just believe in the offense as well.

I agree that he has an amazing ceiling, he certainly has the tools to become an elite player. The fact that he recently converted from a forward is good point, which ofcourse also explains a lot of his short comings. While i do agree that he has shown signs for good vision i don't see him use it often enough, which is where i my doubts about him lie. There are way too many time i've seen him take the "cheap way out", he has a tendency to skate the puck instead of passing it out of the D-zone, he also tends to muscle attackers off the puck which at times makes up for the fact that he was out of position in the first place and he's chasing the play a lot which is something he can do without getting punished because of his speed and strenght. Now those are not bad things per se but that won't make him cut it in the the NHL if he relies on those things too much.

Ulitmately, how he pans out eventually will be totally up to him. If he can stop relying too much on his physical attributes in lower levels and start to work on his weaknesses the sky is the limit for him. It's gonna come down to attitude, and to some extent also IQ.

I tend to favour defensemen that are gifted with great vision, the ones that always gets the small things right and have a good ability to see plays develop which allows them to make fast plays in transition. Those are things that Broberg hasn't figured out yet imo, which is especially obvious on he PP where he's usually slow to make plays and generally has a bad keep at the blue line. Hopefully those things come with experience though. Between Söderström and Broberg i see söderström as the safer pick, however the downside with him is that he doesn't have any high end ceiling while Broberg does, so i guess it comes down to what you prefer.
 

Zetterbeer

Registered User
Aug 4, 2018
278
175
Ontario
1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Byram
4. Turcotte
5. Boldy
6. Caufield
7. Podkolzin
8. Broberg
9. Zegras
10. Krebs
11. Dach
12. Puistola
13. Newhook
14. York
15. Cozens
16. Hoglander
17. Kaliyev
18. Tomasino
19. Lavoie
20. Seider
21. Brink
22. Rees
23. Pelletier
24. Harley
25. Suzuki
26. Tracey

This is what I have so far. Having a tough time differentiating everyone after 20 but I feel confident enough separating Seider, Brink, Rees, Suzuki and Harley from that next tier. As you can see my biggest outliers from the norm are Boldy and Puistola (who I feel will be the steal of the draft). I feel Boldy is underrated by a large part of the community. I think his puck skills and skating are a slight cut above Zegras, with a much stronger play beneath the circles and along the boards. I'm having the toughest time ranking Dach, as I'm constantly flip flopping him between 8-13. I'll be sure to edit this leading up to the draft. Edit #1
 
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Marky9er

Registered User
Jan 30, 2008
7,476
729
1. Hughes
2.Kakko
3. Zegras
4. Boldy
5. Byram
6. Dach
7. Newhook
8. Caufield
9. Broberg
10. Harley
11. Cozens
12. Turcotte
13. Podkolzin
14. Lavoie
15. N. Robertson
16. Rees
17. York
18. Knight
19. Fensore
20. Beecher
I like that you have Harley right there with Broberg. Excellent skater's who need polish defensively but have enormous upside. Harley is the 3rd youngest in the draft I believe, a team that can be patient with him is going to be very very happy when 17 year old Harley becomes 25 year old Harley.
 

Nut Upstrom

You dirty dog!
Dec 18, 2010
3,264
2,634
Florida
1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Byram
4. Dach
5. Podkolzin
6. Turcotte
7. Zegras
8. Seider
9. Newhook
10. Caufield
11. Cozens
12. Broberg
13. Krebs
14. Boldy
15. Knight


Huge tip of my cap to you all who keep this type of conversation going and you who have lists extending through the first round and beyond. Simply kicking back and reading the respected opinions of many on these Red Wings threads is a part of my "research" into these prospects and many of your opinions and insights have had a hand in shaping my list.
I could barely get to 15 - the time, commitment and effort that you all put into studying these prospects blows my mind and I'm sure that I am not the only one who appreciates it, especially with drafting and these early picks being so important to our team's future. It's been fun reading and following the draft the last few years - probably the most entertaining and enjoyable part of the season for me.

Thanks y'all!
Cheers :cheers:
:wingsPick us a winner Stevie :wings
 

izlez

We need more toe-drags/60
Feb 28, 2012
4,623
3,510
1Jack Hughes
2Kaapo Kakko
3Kirby Dach
4Alex Turcotte
5Philip Broberg
6Cole Caufield
7Trevor Zegras
8Dylan Cozens
9Bowen Byram
10Peyton Krebs
11Matthew Boldy
12Vasili Podkolzin
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,230
14,731
You're probably right about Brink, I went back and forth on where he belonged tier wise. His season this past year was truly something special, though I do wonder how the recent expansion has impacted league scoring. Pelletier I like and he's right on that cusp of being in that 3rd tier tier. That being said I don't think it's fair to say that Zadina was in the top 10 last year, therefore Pelletier should be as well. Zadina was a late Bday and was considerably better at generating offence at ES. I think if you were looking for a similar player based on just his scoring Veleno or Beauviller would be pretty close to Pelletier.

While I did base most of my rankings of off their scoring abilities the top few tiers was more of a combination of clips I've seen/games I've watched and scouting reports from other people. If I had based it entirely on stats we would have Fagemo, Brink, and Kaliyev in the top 5, while they're great prospects I think I'd have a hard time drafting them over Zegras, Dach, etc. I think that the 14-24 is a very "pick by need" area as even now I'm wondering if Fagemo, Legare, or Tomasino belong further up.

That being said, this was my manual attempt at something that I intend on trying to create a model for in the future, hopefully in time for the 2020 draft. When I finish it I'll have to post it and get some feedback but I'm certain it will not look the consensus lists. If it's accurate enough perhaps next year I'd be more confident with ranking the Fagemos, Brinks, and Kaliyevs in the top 5, but as of now I don't have the data to back those positions up.

I don't think you should base a ranking purely on stats. The eye test has a place which is why scouts exist.

But Prashanth Iyer attempted to do a model based solely on stats and projecting based on stats... here it is:

 

DatsyukToZetterberg

Alligator!
Apr 3, 2011
5,550
739
Island of Tortuga
I don't think you should base a ranking purely on stats. The eye test has a place which is why scouts exist.

But Prashanth Iyer attempted to do a model based solely on stats and projecting based on stats... here it is:



I saw that, I have a couple issues with it though most of then stem from it not including European players. That being said it's very much what I would like to complete and probably far better than what I'll make.

I think a statistical approach/model can help NHL teams avoid a lot of the pitfalls that they've been known to take at the draft. Assuming the model, once it has Europeans added, can be as accurate as the current one Prashanth made, then I think you'd be better off using that model for selections outside of the 1st round. A combination of the two is still likely the best alternative as you would still like to have some input.

My issue with the eye test is the biases that come with it. The eye test is fine, but you need to make sure it is in line with what the numbers say and what has happened historically. A player can look fantastic, but if he isn't able to produce in lower leagues than it's unlikely he'll produce in the NHL. Models would be a way to keep a scout's biases in check and provide reassurance that what they're seeing is an accurate representation.

A new book called "The MVP Machine" came out in the past few weeks. It's a baseball book, but the themes and ideas it discusses can be transferred to almost any area. The part that caught my eye was an excerpt that talked about how the Astros have willingly cut their scouting staff and have replaced them with internal models and technology. They still use video and high speed cameras but they have far fewer scouts tbst most MLB teams. Since implenting those changes they've become a development powerhouse as they leverage the information advantage they have over other teams.

The first NHL team that can begin to implement a similar system that blends scouting with models and technology will have a huge competitive advantage.
 

BStinson

Registered User
Nov 11, 2013
2,364
555
My top 25 looks something like this

  1. Hughes
  2. Kakko
  3. Byram
  4. Turcotte
  5. Cozens
  6. Zegras
  7. Krebs
  8. Boldy
  9. Dach
  10. Broberg
  11. Seider
  12. Newhook
  13. Podkolzin
  14. Caufield
  15. Soderstrom
  16. York
  17. Kaliyev
  18. Heinola
  19. Knight
  20. Tomasino
  21. Suzuki
  22. Harley
  23. Hoglander
  24. Brink
  25. Grewe
 
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ZDH

Registered User
Mar 6, 2008
8,891
3,994
Kakko
Hughes
Turcotte
Byram
Zegras
Dach
Krebs
Broberg
Cozens
Caulfield
 

Martinez

Go Blue
Oct 10, 2015
6,654
2,140
Top 31
  1. Hughes
  2. Kakko
  3. Turcotte
  4. Byram
  5. Krebs (pre injury, not sure what to do with him)
  6. Dach
  7. Pod
  8. Boldy
  9. York
  10. Zegras
  11. Cozens
  12. Soderstrom
  13. Newhook
  14. Broberg
  15. Heinola
  16. Lavoie
  17. Seider
  18. Kaliyev
  19. Caufield
  20. Suzuki
  21. Hoglander
  22. Tomasino
  23. N Robertson
  24. Rees
  25. Brink
  26. Puistola
  27. Harley
  28. Vlasic
  29. Kolyachonok
  30. Cajkovic
  31. Bjornfot
 
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