Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part II

[brians1128]

Could not agree more. I think it is imperative that Gorton brings in more first round picks.

I agree but I hope Gorton can focus on quality rather than quantity in this draft. Its not as deep and the top end of the draft looks good. Grab 2 very good pieces out of this draft and we all should be smiling.

 

[Edge]

I agree but I hope Gorton can focus on quality rather than quantity in this draft. Its not as deep and the top end of the draft looks good. Grab 2 very good pieces out of this draft and we all should be smiling.

That would be my "hope" for this draft. I don't think they're going to go bananas, but I think this draft lends itself more to sacrificing later picks for the chance to move up and get who you like.

So let's say the team is picking 5th, 26th, 28th and 31st (Tampa wins the cup). I'd be much more comfortable moving two picks to get to 15 or 16 than I would've been last season.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

It's a good thing we're allowed to disagree then hehe Because i don't think this 4-10 stands up against the surrounding drafts as of right now, overhyped because of the amount of C's in there imo.

 

[offdacrossbar]

It's a good thing we're allowed to disagree then hehe Because i don't think this 4-10 stands up against the surrounding drafts as of right now, overhyped because of the amount of C's in there imo.

yes agree.

1-3 some very nice to excellent talent.

precipitous drop off after 1-5

 

[True Blue]

yes agree.

1-3 some very nice to excellent talent.

precipitous drop off after 1-5

But that is not entirely accurate. Who is even #3? Is it Podzolkin? Is it Byram? Is it Dach? If you cannot come up with a consensus 3, then the drop to the next tier cannot be that much.

 

[Edge]

I guess it depends on how define your top 10.

So last year's top 10 was:

1. BUF: Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frolunda
2. CAR: Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie
3. MTL: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Assat
4. OTT: Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston University
5. ARI: Barrett Hayton, C, Sault Ste. Marie
6. DET: Filip Zadina, RW, Halifax
7. VAN: Quintin Hughes, D, Michigan
8. CHI: Adam Boqvist, D, Brynas Jr.
9. NYR: Vitali Kravtsov, RW, Chelyabinsk
10. EDM: Evan Bouchard, D, London

My top 10 list for this year is:

1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Podkolzin
4. Dach
5. Byram
6. Cozens
7. Turcotte
8. Newhook
9. Zegras
10. Boldy

On a slot by slot basis, pre-draft, my views would be:

1. Dahlin
2. Kakko
3. Podkolzin
4. Dach
5. Byram
6. Zadina
7. Hughes
8. Newhook
9. Kravtsov
10. Boldy

So in comparison, I like 6 of the 10 kids in my top 10 this year more than their counterpart who was taken in that slot in 2018. Though some of them are pretty close.

If I go with my final top 10 list for 2018 (more apples to apple), it's probably still 6 our of 10. If I'm being generous with both, maybe I can argue a 5 to 5 split.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I guess it depends on how define your top 10.

So last year's top 10 was:

1. BUF: Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frolunda
2. CAR: Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie
3. MTL: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Assat
4. OTT: Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston University
5. ARI: Barrett Hayton, C, Sault Ste. Marie
6. DET: Filip Zadina, RW, Halifax
7. VAN: Quintin Hughes, D, Michigan
8. CHI: Adam Boqvist, D, Brynas Jr.
9. NYR: Vitali Kravtsov, RW, Chelyabinsk
10. EDM: Evan Bouchard, D, London

My top 10 list for this year is:

1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Podkolzin
4. Dach
5. Byram
6. Cozens
7. Turcotte
8. Newhook
9. Zegras
10. Boldy

On a slot by slot basis, pre-draft, my views would be:

1. Dahlin
2. Kakko
3. Podkolzin
4. Dach
5. Byram
6. Zadina
7. Hughes
8. Newhook
9. Kravtsov
10. Boldy

So in comparison, I like 6 of the 10 kids in my top 10 this year more than their counterpart who was taken in that slot in 2018. Though some of them are pretty close.

If I go with my final top 10 list for 2018 (more apples to apple), it's probably still 6 our of 10. If I'm being generous with both, maybe I can argue a 5 to 5 split.

I think you forgot a hughes.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think you forgot a hughes.

Dahlin is better than Hughes

 

[True Blue]

My top 10 list for this year is:

1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Podkolzin
4. Dach
5. Byram
6. Cozens
7. Turcotte
8. Newhook
9. Zegras
10. Boldy

Moved Boldy up a few spots in a few days, huh? Or more of a toss up with the others and that was the name that came to mind?

 

[True Blue]

Dahlin is better than Hughes

Sure, but you would take Hughes ahead of all of the other forwards in this year's draft.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Sure, but you would take Hughes ahead of all of the other forwards in this year's draft.

But the point Edge is making which player in each draft is the one he would rank higher.

 

[Edge]

But the point Edge is making which player in each draft is the one he would rank higher.

Bingo.

Sorry for the confusion.

I was going slot by slot, not necessarily combining the rankings of both drafts, player by player. Which, come to think of it, could be a fun approach as well.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Bingo.

Sorry for the confusion.

I was going slot by slot, not necessarily combining the rankings of both drafts, player by player. Which, come to think of it, could be a fun approach as well.

I think a better exercise would be using your final top-10 rather than actual draft outcome.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Dahlin is better than Hughes

He has Hughes at 7.

Seeing as how he is #1 on his 2019 list and then listed behind guys who has had behind Hughes on his consolidated list, he forgot one lol.

Assuming he’d have Quinn at 7.

Edit: I get what he was doing now

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

He has Hughes at 7.

Seeing as how he is #1 on his 2019 list and then listed behind guys who has had behind Hughes on his consolidated list, he forgot one lol.

Assuming he’d have Quinn at 7.

Quinn at 7 over the guy in 2019 at 7

 

[Edge]

Moved Boldy up a few spots in a few days, huh? Or more of a toss up with the others and that was the name that came to mind?

Had him 10 in my December rankings (a few pages back).

Had him at 12 in Oct.

 

[Mikos87]

The thing with Byram is that it’s not just the offense. Yeah the kid is on a 20+ goal, 60+ pace, but I’m not even sure the offense is what I like the most.

The kid controls the pace and flow of the game and can do so in all three zones. He is mobile, he anticipates the play well, and he’s a freakin smart player. The hockey sense is very high and there is a noticeable gap between him and every other defenseman I’ve seen heading into this draft.

IMO he is the second defenseman off the board in 2018 if he was a year older. He scores high in a lot of areas. He has the high end skill this board craves, and the hard working, built for the NHL traits we aspire for in guys like Howden and Andersson. He’s a great blend of both worlds.

But for as good as he is, there is a lot of growth potential in him still. You’re looking at a kid with a summer birthday who is still getting bigger, stronger and gaining experience.

You get him and Miller to reach even 85 percent of their ability, and you’ve got a potential scenario where you can have either one of them on the ice to cover an entire 60 minute game.

Trust me, this board would fall hard for him if he was our pick.

I like Byram a lot. Complete. That's how he plays the game. You're right, it's the brains that drive that type of play. Not a lot of defenders out there that always make the right play in the right situation. He's a Ryan Suter clone imo.

 

[Mikos87]

How do people view Podklozin's offensive upside?

I liked the fire he played with at the U18s, but that's all I've seen. That low center of gravity is going to translate well with his skating ability, but is the skill level there to light it up?

 

[Harbour Dog]

Delete - I misread

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I guess it depends on how define your top 10.

So last year's top 10 was:

1. BUF: Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frolunda
2. CAR: Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie
3. MTL: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Assat
4. OTT: Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston University
5. ARI: Barrett Hayton, C, Sault Ste. Marie
6. DET: Filip Zadina, RW, Halifax
7. VAN: Quintin Hughes, D, Michigan
8. CHI: Adam Boqvist, D, Brynas Jr.
9. NYR: Vitali Kravtsov, RW, Chelyabinsk
10. EDM: Evan Bouchard, D, London

My top 10 list for this year is:

1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Podkolzin
4. Dach
5. Byram
6. Cozens
7. Turcotte
8. Newhook
9. Zegras
10. Boldy

On a slot by slot basis, pre-draft, my views would be:

1. Dahlin
2. Kakko
3. Podkolzin
4. Dach
5. Byram
6. Zadina
7. Hughes
8. Newhook
9. Kravtsov
10. Boldy

So in comparison, I like 6 of the 10 kids in my top 10 this year more than their counterpart who was taken in that slot in 2018. Though some of them are pretty close.

If I go with my final top 10 list for 2018 (more apples to apple), it's probably still 6 our of 10. If I'm being generous with both, maybe I can argue a 5 to 5 split.

I think I've figured it out – the last list is which player you like best out of the two lists at each slot.

That's a bit deceiving, though. It provides no insight as to whether, for example, you'd take Svechnikov over Podkolzin or Dach. I'm curious, how would you rank them 1-20? (And are there guys who are/were ranked 11th or 12th in either year you'd take over the guys at the bottom rather than just pick from the top ten of both years?)

 

[Edge]

I think I've figured it out – the last list is which player you like best out of the two lists at each slot.

That's a bit deceiving, though. It provides no insight as to whether, for example, you'd take Svechnikov over Podkolzin or Dach. I'm curious, how would you rank them 1-20? (And are there guys who are/were ranked 11th or 12th in either year you'd take over the guys at the bottom rather than just pick from the top ten of both years?)

Okay, so an alternative approach. I put my final top 10 last year and my Dec. top 10 into a pool of 20 and ranked them.

First, the lists I am drawing from:

May-18

1. Dahlin

2. Svechnikov

3. Zadina

4. Boqvist

5. Hughes

6. Wahlstrom

7. Tkachuk

8. Farabee

9. Bouchard

10. Dobson

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Dec. 2018

1. Hughes

2. Kakko

3. Podkolzin

4. Dach

5. Byram

6. Cozens

7. Turcotte

8. Newhook

9. Zegras

10. Boldy

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And now a merged top 20, with all players on the board (based on how I felt pre-draft):

1. Dahlin
2. Hughes
3. Kakko
4. Svechnikov
5. Podkolzin
6. Zadina
7. Dach
8. Byram
9. Boqvist
10. Cozens
11. Hughes
12. Turcotte
13. Wahlstrom
14. Tkachuk
15. Farabee
16. Newhook
17. Zegras
18. Boldy
19. Bouchard
20. Dobson

So in the 1-10 slots, it's a bit closer for me, but ultimately I went with 6 players from 2019.

The 11-15 slots went for the class of 2018, 4-1.

The 16-20 slots, saw the class of 2019 take the higher rankings.

The last two observations generally paint a picture that I generally like 2019's 5-10 prospects a little more than 2018's.

In all cases it's not dramatic or earth shattering, it's pretty close either way.

Moving away from this approach, and speaking broadly, I think both drafts are still pretty close as you work your way into the teens, but I think by the 20s, 2018's class was further along, or at least a little easier to identify.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Okay, so an alternative approach. I put my final top 10 last year and my Dec. top 10 into a pool of 20 and ranked them.

First, the lists I am drawing from:

May-18

1. Dahlin

2. Svechnikov

3. Zadina

4. Boqvist

5. Hughes

6. Wahlstrom

7. Tkachuk

8. Farabee

9. Bouchard

10. Dobson

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Dec. 2018

1. Hughes

2. Kakko

3. Podkolzin

4. Dach

5. Byram

6. Cozens

7. Turcotte

8. Newhook

9. Zegras

10. Boldy

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And now a merged top 20, with all players on the board (based on how I felt pre-draft):

1. Dahlin
2. Hughes
3. Kakko
4. Svechnikov
5. Podkolzin
6. Zadina
7. Dach
8. Byram
9. Boqvist
10. Cozens
11. Hughes
12. Turcotte
13. Wahlstrom
14. Tkachuk
15. Farabee
16. Newhook
17. Zegras
18. Boldy
19. Bouchard
20. Dobson

So in the 1-10 slots, it's a bit closer for me, but ultimately I went with 6 players from 2019.

The 11-15 slots went for the class of 2018, 4-1.

The 16-20 slots, saw the class of 2019 take the higher rankings.

The last two observations generally paint a picture that I generally like 2019's 5-10 prospects a little more than 2018's.

In all cases it's not dramatic or earth shattering, it's pretty close either way.

Moving away from this approach, and speaking broadly, I think both drafts are still pretty close as you work your way into the teens, but I think by the 20s, 2018's class was further along, or at least a little easier to identify.

Cool. Appreciate the insight.

I take it you're going off of your rankings as they stood at those points in time, not how you view it as of today, which explains why, for example, Kravstov didn't make the list and Wahlstrom did?

 

[Edge]

Cool. Appreciate the insight.

I take it you're going off of your rankings as they stood at those points in time, not how you view it as of today, which explains why, for example, Kravstov didn't make the list and Wahlstrom did?

Exactly --- it becomes really challenging to take players 1/4 of the way through their D+1 seasons and compare them to kids who are at the same point in their D-1 seasons. Additionally, it's hard not to make all kinds of adjustments based on how kids have done post-draft. It would almost feel like cheating and stacking the deck against the class of 2019.

So to compare apples to apples, I went with my rankings. That of course brings us back to my original comment that it depends on how you define your top 10.

Last year, by the time I was getting to my 9th and 10th ranked players (Bouchard and Dobson), I was already leaning toward them being high-end second pairing defenseman rather than first pair defenseman. At that same point this year, I see guys who have better chances of being first line players --- though I do wonder if some of these young center prospects might be more of the higher-end second line variety. Granted, it's at different positions, thus making it hard to make a completely fair comparison, but I think the odds are a little better for the '19 kids.

But the 10th pick is also the turning point for both drafts. After that, I feel 2018 starts to edge out 2019, and by the 20s, I think 2018 is more clear, if not flat-out stronger. In other words, I don't know if there's going to be a Miller-type pick in the 20s. There will still be good talent, but maybe not quite the same odds of finding that home run pick. As a result, I would be more interested in making a move up this year than I was last year --- even if the cost is higher. Last year, my hope was to use all 3 first rounders. If we have three this upcoming year, I'd be significantly more comfortable using two of the latter firsts to move up a handful of spots.

But, and this is a very big but, there's too many variables to make a bold declaration about quality (which I don't think anyone on here is).

For example, I have Alex Newhook and Alex Turcotte both in my top 10, others have them in the 20s. Let's say draft day plays out and both players are indeed on the board in the 20s. Now let's say, the Rangers take Byram at 5, and trade up to grab either Newhook or Turcotte at 21.

That would be a tremendous haul IMO. But some else might shrug it off as being good or very good. So perception is a key factor in these discussions.

So when I see Tobbe's perception of the draft, I don't view it as right or wrong, it's simply different than mine. As a result, it's going to steer our comments appropriately.

 

[Joey Bones]

How do people view Podklozin's offensive upside?

I liked the fire he played with at the U18s, but that's all I've seen. That low center of gravity is going to translate well with his skating ability, but is the skill level there to light it up?

I think he's excellent at creating space for himself to get a breakaway or make a few moves on net. He's got an excellent shot, too. Has the ability to snipe at the dots. I think the sky is the limit for him offensively and he's shown some of that capability in the MHL and VHL (albeit in limited VHL time). The only knock I have on him is that he isn't really playing against men, yet, and I wonder if it will translate into the KHL/NHL. He's played one game to date for SKA so far, but he needs more reps. I think he's going to be that offensive force, but when will he be is the key. I think him staying in the KHL for at least 3 more years (via contract with SKA) is a good thing as it will help him mold into an outright bull with the puck.

 

[Lion Hound]

Rimouski Oceanic is playing Sherbrooke at 3:30 on the NHL Network. Anyone wants to get a look at Alex LaFreniere (2020 draft) now is your chance!