News Article: Down Goes Brown:" one (and only one) team could win both the Stanley Cup and the first overall pick

[cwede]

from the Athletic, so paywall
Down Goes Brown: The chaos lover’s rooting guide to the playoffs and lottery
This year’s unique format means there is one (and only one) team that could win both the Stanley Cup and the first overall pick in the lottery
Down Goes Brown: The chaos lover's rooting guide to the...

Scenario: The Rangers win the Stanley Cup and also the first overall pick.
Yes, it could happen.

Click to read more...

 

[Irishguy42]

I honestly care more about the "Skjei for Lafreniere" memes more than winning the Cup if this happens.

 

[Irishguy42]

Actually, the "Gorton plays 4D chess" and "Gorton galaxy brain" memes would be even better. I might mock some up...uh....just in case...

 

[Thirty One]

We’ve all known it was an inevitability for a while now.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Inferno-Elmo.gif

 

[Raspewtin]

I would do that death note thing where you take half the years off your life in exchange for the tears this would produce

 

[Thirty One]

I would do that death note thing where you take half the years off your life in exchange for the tears this would produce

I wouldn't do half, but it would be a large number.

 

[and 99 others]

Tried calculating the odds of this actually happening:

For tomorrow's draft lottery the Rangers need two of the 8-"alphabetical" teams to win lottery picks, which in itself is less than a 5% chance. Then they would need the Leafs to lose their series (let's call this 35%), while simultaneously not winning the 1st overall (7/8 = 87.5% chance). Hurricanes would have to win the lottery, which is a 12.5% chance AFTER the first scenario where two of the 8-"alphabetical" teams win lottery picks, but since we already said that was a 5% chance i don't think I have to factor that in again.

Rangers are +5,000 odds to win the cup which is a ~2% implied probability.

5% * 35% * 87.5% * 12.5% * 2% = THE RANGERS ARE YOUR 2020 COVID CUP CHAMPIONS AND PROUDLY SELECT FROM RIMOUSKI OCEANIC OF THE QUEBEC MAJOR JUNIOR HOCKEY LEAGUE, ALEXIS LAFRENIERE.

 

[FultonReed]

I would piss myself and vomit on a wall at the exact same time if this were to actually come to fruition.

it would be disgusting, but that's a price I'm willing to pay.

 

[Thirty One]

Tried calculating the odds of this actually happening:

For tomorrow's draft lottery the Rangers need two of the 8-"alphabetical" teams to win lottery picks, which in itself is less than a 5% chance. Then they would need the Leafs to lose their series (let's call this 35%), while simultaneously not winning the 1st overall (7/8 = 87.5% chance). Hurricanes would have to win the lottery, which is a 12.5% chance AFTER the first scenario where two of the 8-"alphabetical" teams win lottery picks, but since we already said that was a 5% chance i don't think I have to factor that in again.

Rangers are +5,000 odds to win the cup which is a ~2% implied probability.

5% * 35% * 87.5% * 12.5% * 2% = THE RANGERS ARE YOUR 2020 COVID CUP CHAMPIONS AND PROUDLY SELECT FROM RIMOUSKI OCEANIC OF THE QUEBEC MAJOR JUNIOR HOCKEY LEAGUE, ALEXIS LAFRENIERE.

See? Basically a certainty. That's 382,812%

 

[Maximus]

I must be dumb or stupid or ignorant or all the above but I for the life off me cannot understand how the Rangers have the possibility of winning the Cup and also getting the #1 pick in the draft and getting Lafraniere?

No rush but can someone please help me out here and explain how this is possible...thx in advance...lol

 

[Alluckks]

I must be dumb or stupid or ignorant or all the above but I for the life off me cannot understand how the Rangers have the possibility of winning the Cup and also getting the #1 pick in the draft and getting Lafraniere?

No rush but can someone please help me out here and explain how this is possible...thx in advance...lol

Brady Skjei trade for 1st
Worse 1st between Leafs and Canes picks
Leafs pick is top 10 protected or defer to next year
So
Leafs lose and get 2nd overall or 3rd overall in lottery by luck (therefore we cannot get their pick bc it is deferred to next year, so we must get the Canes pick)
We beat the Canes and go on to win the cup
Canes get 1st overall pick in lottery by luck

This only matters if today the lottery shows that 2 play-in teams will be winning 2 of the top 3 picks (teams to be determined after the play-in round is done with each losing team getting a 12.5% chance)

 

[cwede]

Tried calculating the odds of this actually happening:

For tomorrow's draft lottery the Rangers need two of the 8-"alphabetical" teams to win lottery picks, which in itself is less than a 5% chance. Then they would need the Leafs to lose their series (let's call this 35%), while simultaneously not winning the 1st overall (7/8 = 87.5% chance). Hurricanes would have to win the lottery, which is a 12.5% chance AFTER the first scenario where two of the 8-"alphabetical" teams win lottery picks, but since we already said that was a 5% chance i don't think I have to factor that in again.

Rangers are +5,000 odds to win the cup which is a ~2% implied probability.

5% * 35% * 87.5% * 12.5% * 2% = THE RANGERS ARE YOUR 2020 COVID CUP CHAMPIONS AND PROUDLY SELECT FROM RIMOUSKI OCEANIC OF THE QUEBEC MAJOR JUNIOR HOCKEY LEAGUE, ALEXIS LAFRENIERE.

another stab at estimating the probability is included below

Down Goes Brown: The 2020 draft lottery power rankings
"1. The Ranger Scenario — As outlined in Monday’s post, there is a small but non-zero chance that the Rangers could win the Stanley Cup and the first overall pick in the lottery. How small? According to the math guys, roughly one-in-36,328. And sure, technically we wouldn’t know whether this scenario was even in play until after the play-in round and a second lottery, but just the possibility would be enough to get Team Chaos fans out of their seats."

 

[Maximus]

Brady Skjei trade for 1st
Worse 1st between Leafs and Canes picks
Leafs pick is top 10 protected or defer to next year
So
Leafs lose and get 2nd overall or 3rd overall in lottery by luck (therefore we cannot get their pick bc it is deferred to next year, so we must get the Canes pick)
We beat the Canes and go on to win the cup
Canes get 1st overall pick in lottery by luck

This only matters if today the lottery shows that 2 play-in teams will be winning 2 of the top 3 picks (teams to be determined after the play-in round is done with each losing team getting a 12.5% chance)

Geeze Louise....I think I got it now. Not going to happen but I think I follow.

Cheers and thx for explaining this to my Einstein self...lol

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

If two placeholder teams win tonight, I'm pretty much expecting the Rangers to get one of those picks

 

[Leetch3]

If two placeholder teams win tonight, I'm pretty much expecting the Rangers to get one of those picks

building up for double disappointment. i like it.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

building up for double disappointment. i like it.

It's what I live for

 

[Harbour Dog]

This cup + 1st overall thing has taken on a life of its own

And I think @Thirty One was the first to bring it up on here, like a week after he was pushing back that we were setting ourselves up for disappointment on something way more possible (buying out Marc Staal perhaps?).

I'm convinced that the whole thing is one big troll, and there will indeed be two play-in teams in the top three after today. Then we'll win the cup, get our hopes up, and not have a top 3 pick. Brutal

 

[NYR94]

Inferno-Elmo.gif

 

[RangerFan23]

So other than Eastern teams not jumping up, what exactly are we rooting for tonight? Is it as simple as we want the as many letter teams to jump as much as possible because we have 1 (and maybe 2) of them? Do we care which letters?

 

[Thirty One]

So other than Eastern teams not jumping up, what exactly are we rooting for tonight? Is it as simple as we want the as many letter teams to jump as much as possible because we have 1 (and maybe 2) of them? Do we care which letters?

I'm personally hoping for Team G but it makes no difference.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Team G all the way, baby.

F*** Team A. They've always gone first.

 

[bl02]

I'm personally hoping for Team G but it makes no difference.

 

[Irishguy42]

So other than Eastern teams not jumping up, what exactly are we rooting for tonight? Is it as simple as we want the as many letter teams to jump as much as possible because we have 1 (and maybe 2) of them? Do we care which letters?

The letters do not matter, as each play-in loser will have an equal chance at each placeholder that gets a lotto pick.

 

[Ail]

Say what you want about world ending prophecies, but if this were to happen, it would actually all be over.