(borderline: Grabner for 2nd+Rykov)
Decided to include this one too - because of the stuff I have heard about Rykov as a prospect - but it should be acknowledged that this is a borderline case for an expensive rental. As a reward for the young team for a great season, the Devils added speed to what was already a lightning quick team. For two decent future assets, they received exactly zero playoff points, got bounced in the first round, and then the rental left in the summer. Worth it?
Verdict: fail. Whoever is likely to go against Tampa this April should take notes.
One problem is that you're looking at this like "Stanley Cup or bust" and that's not always the case with rental trades. Back in the day, a lot of teams didn't turn a profit until they got in a few home playoff games. As much as we like to think all the owners are altruistic and don't care about profit, I think we've seen that sort of pressure cause GMs to make certain moves.
The 2017-18 Devils barely made the playoffs. Part of being a GM is managing egos and personalities. After a good first half, the team was still in a playoff spot but fading (Jesper Bratt hit the wall, Marcus Johansson was out with a concussion). Our annual west coast road trip was after the trade deadline. While Grabner didn't mesh for the most part, he did have a couple good games down the stretch. I was fully prepared for that road trip to sink our playoff hopes (at Nashville/Vegas/LA/Anaheim/San Jose/Pittsburgh), but the team went 5-2.
If the Devils missed the playoffs, perhaps some voters would have felt compelled to shift their ballots towards Nathan MacKinnon instead of Taylor Hall? If you're Hall, you might still be sitting today with the stigma of never having made the playoffs, no Hart Trophy, and some bitterness towards the organization for not at least trying to make the playoffs. Meanwhile he's entering the final year of his contract. So while the Grabner trade didn't provide that immediate value, perhaps there'll be some residual effect in the Devils attempting to extend Hall.
As much as we all like draft picks, realistically how many 2nd rounders really pan out? Rykov is a nice darkhorse prospect, but I'm not losing sleep over that. The Rangers did what they should have done and collected assets. But I think it would have been a poor strategy for the Devils to have sat on their hands and been like "Welp, we're not really a Cup contender, so why bother? Oh by the way Taylor, let's talk contract."
And the bolded part hasn't aged well.
