Don't Trade for Expensive Rentals!

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  1. DudeWhereIsMakar

    DudeWhereIsMakar Originator of the username

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    But teams will still be doing this forever. For some it won't cost them lots going forward, it will only if that player turns into the next Wayne Gretzky. It also comes in handy when we need the things we don't have.

    The Stastny trade was necessary, but kind of wish we traded Dano instead of Foley in that deal, but either way that deal didn't really hurt us. Stastny helped this team gain more experience and morale in so many ways. The only thing that hurt is he signed with Vegas.

    Winnipeg is only in need of a stronger blue line right now. Tanev is what I think goes to make room for Appleton/Vesalainen.
     
  2. Breakers

    Breakers Registered User

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    The success stories of players like Gaborik and Stastny are what keep GM's going down this path.
     
  3. Maukkis

    Maukkis We can and we will overpay

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    I feel insulted, but at the same time I'm impressed with your ability to be so ludicrously wrong.
     
  4. Osprey

    Osprey Registered User

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    Woah. I'm impressed how wrong I was, too! I seriously thought that Soundgarden was the OP, and he's a Preds fan. Maybe he started another thread that was right next to this or he was the most recent reply in this thread. I have a headache, so I must not be seeing straight. Sorry about that, Maukkis.
     
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  5. JoeThorntonsRooster

    JoeThorntonsRooster Brent Burns was a Ted Lindsay Finalist

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    The value of a successful rental can not be understated.

    Just off the top of my head: Chicago with Vermette, Los Angeles with Gaborik, Boston with Kaberle. Those teams won Stanley Cups. The value of a Cup win is so high.

    On top of that, most teams are generally hoping for Evander Kane type situations, where the player plays well and they re-sign them. And, on top of that, most of these late 1st round picks don’t turn out to be anything anyhow.

    It’s a gamble. I don’t think it’s as bad as you’re making it out to be. From a San Jose perspective, we’ve made the following trade over the past 3 deadlines:

    2019 1st round pick
    Danny O’ Regan
    Nikolai Goldobin
    2017 2nd round pick (Maxime Comtois)
    2018 2nd round pick (Sean Durzi)

    For

    Evander Kane
    Roman Polak
    Jannik Hansen

    Now, a lot of people would say that 2 of these trades were an awful loss from a San Jose perspective. And they would be right. But Evander Kane is a star player who is top-5 in 5V5 goals and top-20 in 5V5 points since the day the Sharks acquired him. Ultimately, it’s very unlikely that any of the pieces that they gave up in any of those deals will turn out to be anywhere near as good as Kane.

    My last thing to add, is that when making moves at the TDL, physical depth players tend to get overpaid for - especially relative to their good, skilled top-6/4 counterparts. I would argue that it’s a very bad idea to ever pay up for a Polak, Hansen type player at the TDL. And that it’s a good idea to pay up for Stastny, Kane, Hossa, Gaborik, etc. type player. I suspect that the teams that acquire Duchene/Stone/Panarin will end up with no complaints, while the teams that acquire Ferland/Simmonds will be unhappy.

    Maybe try to separate the analysis for bonafide top-6/4 players, and bonafide bottom-6/pair players, and see what that does?
     
  6. Howboutthempanthers

    Howboutthempanthers Thread killer. Sponsor

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    That shouldn't be important in trading for a rental.
     
  7. Bank Shot

    Bank Shot Registered User

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    The draft is also luck driven.

    The average 20th-30th overall pick has pretty low odds of becoming an impact player.

    If you are a team with a cup window...odds are that window is going to be short.

    It makes sense to squeeze out every drop you can if you are in a contending window.
     
  8. Bounces R Way

    Bounces R Way Feaster's Beasters

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    Good post OP. I agree with your premise that the high priced rentals are rarely the impact makers they are brought in to be. I don't however think that makes the pursuit of a deadline add a poor strategy. If your team has a fairly glaring hole not addressing it at all can sometimes end up worse. Most GMs have a relatively short shelf life with their organizations. They all want to build a winner while they're there, and while the long term health of their prospect pool should never be discounted, sometimes the short term gain can be to tantalizing to pass up. As much as rentals tend to be disappointing, so too are the vast majority of draft picks a team makes. Those failures are just less visible.

    There's been much debate for instance on whether the Flames should make their 1st available for another forward. They've been spending picks in the last few years, and many feel they should hang on to this one. I understand this line of thinking, but also understand that that for the most part those picks spent have made the Flames a better team. I view this draft as being on the weaker side, especially the latter bit of the 1st round, so if the right player came along and a deal that makes sense materializes I'd be behind GM Treliving moving that 1st for some more scoring punch. The Flames have some mojo going this year, and while their cup window should just be opening, it'd be perhaps unwise to not take the opportunity to ice the best team possible going into the playoffs. I'm hoping that the prices aren't as high as recent years as it seems to me that this is very much a buyers market, with lots of good players being available and only a handful of teams that should be serious about taking a run at the Cup.
     
  9. TheAngryHank

    TheAngryHank Expert

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    Trade for Detroits cheap rentals.
     
  10. HSF

    HSF Registered User

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    People overrated late 1st rounders which is not included in your analysis
     
  11. Tom ServoMST3K

    Tom ServoMST3K Hockey Professor in Training

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    What's your excuse?
    Stastny was a bit of a special case. WPG was and kinda still is historically inept in the playoffs.

    Winnipeg as a franchise had ZERO playoff series wins before last year.

    Winnipeg as a city had TWO NHL playoff series wins before last year, and both were 5 gamers.

    Stastny is directly responsible for HALF of the playoff series wins in franchise history, and a QUARTER of the wins in city history, bringing them to heights never before seen in Winnipeg.

    Now that the losing culture is partway purged, I think Chevy is going to be a little less active this season.

    Although the most underrated pickup of the deadline was Joe Morrow. As a franchise, the Jets had exactly Zero playoff GAME wins, and after fumbling away a lead in game 1, I could see the ghosts of series' past in the eyes of the team. That is before Joe Morrow unleashes a clapper from the point, and it somehow goes in. That goal for me - means Morrow can be our 7th defenseman for as long as he's even close to an NHL calibre player. Most important goal in franchise history right now.

     
  12. bambamcam4ever

    bambamcam4ever 107 and counting

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    I think the lesson is don't overpay for merely above average players, not that expensive rentals aren't worth it altogether.

    Two of the biggest rentals since the lockout in Hossa and Gaborik were among the biggest reasons their teams made the SCF.
     
  13. MadLuke

    MadLuke Registered User

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    If I understand that statement correctly, going from 3% to 6% would be doubling your chance, from 6% to 9% that a 50% better chance to win, that sound like a great impact. Or maybe you mean going from 8% to 103%*8% (so 8% to 8.24%)

    Say a team that does it 5 times in a 25 year's time frame, winning at least one cup in one of those 5 year's if they go from 6% to 9% goes from 26% to 38%.
     
  14. Maukkis

    Maukkis We can and we will overpay

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    Two problems: consistently upgrading by even a small amount of 2% points every year will prove to be very difficult, seeing as your cap space and assets are limited. Secondly, roster turnover will force you to take a step back.
     
  15. NoNecksCurse

    NoNecksCurse Registered User

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    great work.

    jets fans are impressing me lately.

    ive stated i am okay with Preds doing nothing else. rentals very rarely work. i would put it at tops 10%. 3/15 comes out to 20% so a little more "success" than i would have thought but my criteria is strictly this - did the team acquiring the rental win the cup? yes or no.
     
  16. GodEmperor

    GodEmperor Registered User

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    Good post, I went back and re read the OP, I think the point is as follows:

    Don't EVER give up 1sts if you don't know exactly what the player is or are unsure if he will stay or need the 1st

    However, like you mention you got Kane for very little and now he is doing very well for you guys, same thing with the Leafs, we got Muzzin for very little and although we can't evaluate his tenure yet, I feel totally fine about it, now Hartman for a 1st or Ladd for a 1st or Nash for a 1st, I don't know about that.

    As you said, the 1st although valuable is not even close to as valuable as a cup, a cup can literally be everything whereas yeah losing 1sts for nothing is bad (avoid that), but simultaneously, most 1st round picks don't exactly amount to game breakers either, so basically it should be weighed as follows:

    Depth of draft+expected position in draft V the long term value of the acquisition, the odds it increases your cup chances AND prospect cup board (if you're more stocked, it's obviously not as bad)
     
  17. ANDI P IS CUTE

    ANDI P IS CUTE Registered User

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    im sorry i failed to see any big names there.
     
  18. NYRKing

    NYRKing Registered User

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    I don't agree with this. You trade for the expensive rental if it gives you a chance to win the cup. There will always be more rental players that fail since only one team can win the cup. I don't think the recent trend of the 'top' UFA rentals not winning the cup will impact GM decisions with this. What does impact the deadline deals, imo, is that teams must be reluctant to deal 1st round picks and top prospects because entry level players and young RFA players are so vital to the cap era.
     
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  19. mmvvpp

    mmvvpp Registered User

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    good point & one that's been missing in this discussion
    of course the majority of rental type trades are going to be seen as failures [on the low end, there's at least 3-4 a season] as there's only one winning team every year
     
  20. Theodore450

    Theodore450 Registered User

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    I stopped at Kane didn’t have a good playoff...
     
  21. JoeThorntonsRooster

    JoeThorntonsRooster Brent Burns was a Ted Lindsay Finalist

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    Muzzin wasn’t even a rental, and that’s kind of the issue with this post. A lot of players being posted who aren’t even rentals.

    At the end of the day, you have to make the trade for good players who fill needs. Muzzin and Kane were both just flat out good players with a history of being good. The same can’t be said for a lot of players in this thread. A lot of these guys had declined pretty badly and just weren’t very good by the time they were acquired.

    A pick between 20 and 30 really doesn’t have that much value.

    I’m a Sharks fan and he didn’t. He was hurt but he played poorly.
     
  22. b1e9a8r5s

    b1e9a8r5s Registered User

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    Why or how is Ryan Hartman considered a rental?
     
  23. MadLuke

    MadLuke Registered User

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    In my calculation I was not using a scenario of consistenly upgrading, only a bump the year of the rental trade and that why I had happen just a few year on a long period, your windows to the cup being rare.
     
  24. acor

    acor Registered User

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    This thread ignores one thing... Teams trading for rentals are usually contending teams. It means their "1st" is usually a late 1st. Ladd trade is portrayed as total disaster, and while its clear he didn't pan out, neither player picked with their "1st round pick" (Chicago of course could've pick differently), nor "former 1st rounder" are NHL players currently, and its unlikely they'll be impactful players in the future... I've checked another "disastrous" trade from that list- Staal to Rangers- and it also turned out that picks and prospect NYR sacraficed in this trade are nowhere near NHL...

    Of course, neither of these trades should've happen- Ladd wasn't worth trading for, and even if Staal turned to be good (he wasn't), Rangers were not contenders that year, but ultimately value those two teams sacraficed was very little... "1st round pick+former 1st rounder" sounds scary, but it isn't...

    Some poster presented calculation, that suggest that trading for high quality rental increases your SC chances about 2%... Sounds small, but Does having late 1st rounder, or 2 late 2nd rounders+prospect who never played in NHL also increases your chances of being competitive in the future by 2%??? If not- maybe that's worth the gamble...
     
  25. Riseonfire

    Riseonfire R+L=J

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    ****ing Butch Goring. Look what he did!

    30+ years later and GMs still think the next Goring is a trade away.
     

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