Speculation: Don't look now, Hawks 2 points from the 5th place in the lottery

ColdSteel2

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Aug 27, 2010
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I'd rather have a top 5 pick but looks like that isn't going to happen now. I'd rather have a shot at a top pick even if its small than a 100% chance to get embarrassed in the first round.
I'd rather have a shot at a top 5 pick too, but the odds are around 1% in the 12-14 range. I see them finishing in the 10-12 range at worst, but it might all be moot anyway because as quickly as they have risen, they could fall back down as though their February schedule is charmin soft, their March-April schedule is brutal.

With you guys on this. The Kampf injury will be devastating IMO. The draft pick chances got a jump start with that news.
 

Kaners Bald Spot

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Dec 6, 2011
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With you guys on this. The Kampf injury will be devastating IMO. The draft pick chances got a jump start with that news.
Stan needs to stay the course and sell. There is no way they're making it with that March and April schedule. None. They see a lot of San Jose, Winnipeg, Nashville and other good teams. Tank re-engaged starts with an L Tuesday vs. Boston.
 

Illinihockey

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Jun 15, 2010
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Stan needs to stay the course and sell. There is no way they're making it with that March and April schedule. None. They see a lot of San Jose, Winnipeg, Nashville and other good teams. Tank re-engaged starts with an L Tuesday vs. Boston.

Thats the best case scenario right? They play well and he sells off Gus and Anisamov
 

Toews2Bickell

It's Showtime
Nov 24, 2013
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Stan needs to stay the course and sell. There is no way they're making it with that March and April schedule. None. They see a lot of San Jose, Winnipeg, Nashville and other good teams. Tank re-engaged starts with an L Tuesday vs. Boston.

Sell off the UFAs and stand pat unless its more reclamation projects for JC. No reason to tear it down any more with the summer they can have. All their valuable pieces have term. They can afford to see how the offseason plays out and the players on the current team have earned opportunity to try and sneak in this year...
 
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Kaners Bald Spot

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Dec 6, 2011
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Sell off the UFAs and stand pat unless its more reclamation projects for JC. No reason to tear it down any more with the summer they can have. All their valuable pieces have term. They can afford to see how the offseason plays out and the players on the current team have earned opportunity to try and sneak in this year...
The only player I disagree with keeping is Anisimov. If Barratt is signing, go ahead and move Anisimov.
 
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AmericanDream

Thank you Elon!
Oct 24, 2005
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I agree, would be very surprised if he does
he is frustrating to watch at times because of what he could be doing every game, but if he plays like that 1 out of every 3 games, you cannot move him at all. he has equaled his goal total from last year and almost same in points in 30 less games...he has 2 less goals than Panarin does right now, and Saad is never going to be an assist machine so Panain will always have more points, but Saad could finish with more goals than Breadman.
 

x Tame Impala

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Of all the sayings in hockey, I hate "just make it in and anything can happen" more than all of them.


2008: Red Wings 1st place in West beat Penguins 2nd in East
2009: Penguins 4th in East beat Red Wings 2nd place in West
2010: Hawks 2nd in West beat Flyers 7th in East
2011: Bruins 3rd in East beat Canucks 1st in West
2012: Kings 8th in West beat Devils 6th in East
2013: Hawks 1st in West beat Bruins 4th in East
2014: Kings 6th in West beat Rangers 5th in East
2015: Hawks 4th in West beat Tampa 3rd in East
2016: Penguins 2nd in East beat Sharks 6th in West
2017: Penguins 2nd in East beat Nashville 8th in West
2018: Capitals 3rd in East beat Vegas 3rd in West

In eleven years, out of a possible 22 teams, there's only been a Wildcard (7 or 8 seed) win the Cup once or make the Cup Finals 3 times. 1/22 to win it (4%) and 3/22 to make it to the Finals (13%). We've seen the Hawks 09 WCF run, 2010 Cup, 2011 first round exit, 2012 first round exit, 2013 Cup, 2014 WCF run, 2015 Cup, 2016 first round exit, 2017 sweep, 2018 lotto finish. We know what the difference between a first round exit team and a Cup winner looks like. We've seen that even when the Hawks are at their absolute best, they still need A LOT of luck to win it all. They need tons of elite talent and elite depth all over their lineup and they need elite goaltending.

Yes the Hawks are playing better than the bottom 5 team they've been most of the season but they are not a very good team. If they make it into the playoffs they have Kane, Toews, DBC, and a deadly powerplay. But they also have poor forward depth, no defensive shutdown pairs, no goalie, no PK. What happens if/when the Hawks 1st line gets shutdown or goes cold? When the Hawks were a one line team in 2016 with Hart, Ross, and Lindsay Kane who had Panarin on his wing, they didn't go anywhere. That team even had Crawford, Kieth, Hjalmarsson, and Hossa on it. What about 2017?
"Anything can happen"...no. The only thing that'll happen is they'll get spanked by whichever of Nashville, Calgary, Winnipeg, or San Jose they play.

We know what a great team looks like. This is not it.
 

robertocarlos

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Sep 19, 2014
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Even at the pace of 6-2-2 your team is running out of time and games; really just games. 6-2-2 then 6-2-2 and then 3-3-1 for 88 points. Is that enough points?

Edit: That's 15-7-5. Ouch.
 

ColdSteel2

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Aug 27, 2010
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Of all the sayings in hockey, I hate "just make it in and anything can happen" more than all of them.


2008: Red Wings 1st place in West beat Penguins 2nd in East
2009: Penguins 4th in East beat Red Wings 2nd place in West
2010: Hawks 2nd in West beat Flyers 7th in East
2011: Bruins 3rd in East beat Canucks 1st in West
2012: Kings 8th in West beat Devils 6th in East
2013: Hawks 1st in West beat Bruins 4th in East
2014: Kings 6th in West beat Rangers 5th in East
2015: Hawks 4th in West beat Tampa 3rd in East
2016: Penguins 2nd in East beat Sharks 6th in West
2017: Penguins 2nd in East beat Nashville 8th in West
2018: Capitals 3rd in East beat Vegas 3rd in West

In eleven years, out of a possible 22 teams, there's only been a Wildcard (7 or 8 seed) win the Cup once or make the Cup Finals 3 times. 1/22 to win it (4%) and 3/22 to make it to the Finals (13%). We've seen the Hawks 09 WCF run, 2010 Cup, 2011 first round exit, 2012 first round exit, 2013 Cup, 2014 WCF run, 2015 Cup, 2016 first round exit, 2017 sweep, 2018 lotto finish. We know what the difference between a first round exit team and a Cup winner looks like. We've seen that even when the Hawks are at their absolute best, they still need A LOT of luck to win it all. They need tons of elite talent and elite depth all over their lineup and they need elite goaltending.

Yes the Hawks are playing better than the bottom 5 team they've been most of the season but they are not a very good team. If they make it into the playoffs they have Kane, Toews, DBC, and a deadly powerplay. But they also have poor forward depth, no defensive shutdown pairs, no goalie, no PK. What happens if/when the Hawks 1st line gets shutdown or goes cold? When the Hawks were a one line team in 2016 with Hart, Ross, and Lindsay Kane who had Panarin on his wing, they didn't go anywhere. That team even had Crawford, Kieth, Hjalmarsson, and Hossa on it. What about 2017?
"Anything can happen"...no. The only thing that'll happen is they'll get spanked by whichever of Nashville, Calgary, Winnipeg, or San Jose they play.

We know what a great team looks like. This is not it.

Not everyone is as objective as you are when it comes to the Hawks.
 

b1e9a8r5s

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Right now the cut off would be 86-87 pts if you are using Min and Stl 82 game pace.

To get to 87 pts Hawks would need 34 pts in their last 27 games. That's not going to be easy, but it's possible with the way they have been playing. They have a favorable next 9 or so games and will need to stay hot over that stretch to pull it off.
 

b1e9a8r5s

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Feb 16, 2015
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Chicago, IL
Of all the sayings in hockey, I hate "just make it in and anything can happen" more than all of them.


2008: Red Wings 1st place in West beat Penguins 2nd in East
2009: Penguins 4th in East beat Red Wings 2nd place in West
2010: Hawks 2nd in West beat Flyers 7th in East
2011: Bruins 3rd in East beat Canucks 1st in West
2012: Kings 8th in West beat Devils 6th in East
2013: Hawks 1st in West beat Bruins 4th in East
2014: Kings 6th in West beat Rangers 5th in East
2015: Hawks 4th in West beat Tampa 3rd in East
2016: Penguins 2nd in East beat Sharks 6th in West
2017: Penguins 2nd in East beat Nashville 8th in West
2018: Capitals 3rd in East beat Vegas 3rd in West

In eleven years, out of a possible 22 teams, there's only been a Wildcard (7 or 8 seed) win the Cup once or make the Cup Finals 3 times. 1/22 to win it (4%) and 3/22 to make it to the Finals (13%). We've seen the Hawks 09 WCF run, 2010 Cup, 2011 first round exit, 2012 first round exit, 2013 Cup, 2014 WCF run, 2015 Cup, 2016 first round exit, 2017 sweep, 2018 lotto finish. We know what the difference between a first round exit team and a Cup winner looks like. We've seen that even when the Hawks are at their absolute best, they still need A LOT of luck to win it all. They need tons of elite talent and elite depth all over their lineup and they need elite goaltending.

Yes the Hawks are playing better than the bottom 5 team they've been most of the season but they are not a very good team. If they make it into the playoffs they have Kane, Toews, DBC, and a deadly powerplay. But they also have poor forward depth, no defensive shutdown pairs, no goalie, no PK. What happens if/when the Hawks 1st line gets shutdown or goes cold? When the Hawks were a one line team in 2016 with Hart, Ross, and Lindsay Kane who had Panarin on his wing, they didn't go anywhere. That team even had Crawford, Kieth, Hjalmarsson, and Hossa on it. What about 2017?
"Anything can happen"...no. The only thing that'll happen is they'll get spanked by whichever of Nashville, Calgary, Winnipeg, or San Jose they play.

We know what a great team looks like. This is not it.


If your point is that this Hawks team doesn't have what it takes to make or win the cup, I don't think you'll get an argument from the most optimistic fan this year.

But when I look at those results, I don't think it really goes against the "anything can happen" way of thinking.
 
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ColdSteel2

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No one is saying the Hawks are going to win the Cup and no one is saying they should aggressively buy. Some people are excited the Hawks might make the playoffs and are playing well. That's it.

There’s nothing wrong with that. I trust Bowman to do the right thing at the deadline. But to Tame’s point, people are already saying anything can happen and he’s just saying we know better because we know what it takes to win. A lot of people thought the paper tiger teams of 16 and 17 had a chance to win the Cup too. I’m just saying if you think every playoff team the Hawks have has a chance to win the Cup, you’re not being objective.
 
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x Tame Impala

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No one is saying the Hawks are going to win the Cup and no one is saying they should aggressively buy. Some people are excited the Hawks might make the playoffs and are playing well. That's it.

I’m kind of excited too! I really want Hughes or Kakko more than a 7-12 seed finish, but it would be really impressive and I’d be legitimately proud of the Hawks if they turn this awful season around and made the playoffs. As long as Bowman doesn’t trade valuable picks/prospects away for Fleischmann and Weise type rentals then I’ll have no complaints either way.
 

x Tame Impala

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If your point is that this Hawks team doesn't have what it takes to make or win the cup, I don't think you'll get an argument from the most optimistic fan this year.

But when I look at those results, I don't think it really goes against the "anything can happen" way of thinking.

In the Toews and Kane era, 1 of 22 wildcard teams have won it (4% of teams) and 2 more have made it to the finals (8% of teams). For some weird reason I don’t have to take a Statistics class to get my degree, so I can’t crunch the numbers and give you the odds, but they’re not good.
 

Salvaged Ship

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Oct 9, 2013
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I have been on the Bowman deserves to be fired bandwagon for the past year and my mind has not changed on that but I have to give credit where credit is due. He looks to have hit a home run on the Strome trade. Hopefully the kid is the real deal long term and not another Richard Panik, only time will tell. But have to give him a big thumbs up on the trade.
 

AmericanDream

Thank you Elon!
Oct 24, 2005
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Chicago Manitoba
In the Toews and Kane era, 1 of 22 wildcard teams have won it (4% of teams) and 2 more have made it to the finals (8% of teams). For some weird reason I don’t have to take a Statistics class to get my degree, so I can’t crunch the numbers and give you the odds, but they’re not good.
if the % isn't 0, then yes, anything can happen lol....and when any of us say anything can happen, it means this team could go on a deep playoff run, nobody expects us to get to the finals, but many conference finals have including inferior teams that made it somehow. that doesn't do us much good in the long run but like you said we would be very proud of this group if they got there.
 

b1e9a8r5s

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In the Toews and Kane era, 1 of 22 wildcard teams h ave won it (4% of teams) and 2 more have made it to the finals (8% of teams). For some weird reason I don’t have to take a Statistics class to get my degree, so I can’t crunch the numbers and give you the odds, but they’re not good.

The odds aren't good for any given seed, that's the point.

1 seeds: 2 wins, 1 loss
8 seeds: 1 win, 1 loss

Higher seeds are more successful in the postseason of course. But it's not uncommon for lower seeds to do quiet well which is where the expression comes from. In that regard, I don't think it's unfounded.
 

x Tame Impala

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if the % isn't 0, then yes, anything can happen lol....and when any of us say anything can happen, it means this team could go on a deep playoff run, nobody expects us to get to the finals, but many conference finals have including inferior teams that made it somehow. that doesn't do us much good in the long run but like you said we would be very proud of this group if they got there.

Last year’s playoff odds

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

If .9% to 1.9% odds are good enough for you and others then more power to ya

tenor.gif


I just hope those odds aren’t good enough for our front office and they do something dumb
 
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x Tame Impala

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The odds aren't good for any given seed, that's the point.

1 seeds: 2 wins, 1 loss
8 seeds: 1 win, 1 loss

Higher seeds are more successful in the postseason of course. But it's not uncommon for lower seeds to do quiet well which is where the expression comes from. In that regard, I don't think it's unfounded.

Specific seeds, no. But wildcard teams (what the Hawks would be) VS the field is something very different.
 

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