Confirmed with Link: Donato to San Jose for a 2021 3rd

[Dr Jan Itor]

Jaques Lemaire was known for putting some questionable players on top lines too... one of the best coaches of all time. There's reason they're coaches and we're not for the most part.

I wouldn't equate Jaques Lemaire and Dean Evason. Slightly different equity as NHL head coaches.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I'd bet good money Donato ends up in a similar role with SJ.

For better or for worse, NHL coaches value the qualities where Donato is lacking. They value hard work in the D zone(even if it isn't particularly good work). They value board play, they value not giving pucks away.

They are going to pick the guy that does those things at the expense of 5 points every time.

 

[TaLoN]

I wouldn't equate Jaques Lemaire and Dean Evason. Slightly different equity as NHL head coaches.

I wasn't... but pointing out that Foligno on the top line instead of Donato doesn't say anything against Evason either.

If Donato is physically over matched in the top 6, he's physically over matched. Foligno isn't that at least. Hence why a coach might make that questionable decision.

I get it, you have higher hopes for Donato based on 5v5 stats... you may end up right... but despite those 5v5 stats, he looked physically over matched and thus completely ineffective every time he played in the top 6.

I don't have much faith that he's going to put on that needed muscle at this point is all. Thus, in a numbers game where he couldn't differentiate himself has a clearly better player for the role, he's gone. The return isn't surprising to me.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I wasn't... but pointing out that Foligno on the top line instead of Donato doesn't say anything against Evason either.

If Donato is physically over matched in the top 6, he's physically over matched. Foligno isn't that at least. Hence why a coach might make that questionable decision.

I get it, you have higher hopes for Donato based on 5v5 stats... you may end up right... but despite those 5v5 stats, he looked physically over matched and thus completely ineffective every time he played in the top 6.

I don't have much faith that he's going to put on that needed muscle at this point is all. Thus, in a numbers game where he couldn't differentiate himself has a clearly better player for the role, he's gone. The return isn't surprising to me.

Completely ineffective... except for the 50 point pace.

 

[TaLoN]

Completely ineffective... except for the 50 point pace.

He didn't have a 50 point pace in the top 6.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

He didn't have a 50 point pace in the top 6.

What was his pace then?

 

[MuckOG]

I think a lot of this comes down to a numbers game. If either or both of Bjugstad or Johansson don't make it at center, they will shift over to a top 6 wing position, and if Guerin somehow nabs a top 6 center before the season, one of them will most certainly move to the wing.

You can make the argument that we'll never know if Donato would be a better option than Bjugstad or Johansson are because he was never given a real chance, but I think Guerin thinks he has seen enough to convince himself that he isn't a better option.

 

[TaLoN]

What was his pace then?

I would have to go back and actually see which games and shifts he was in the top 6, but it sure wasn't a 50 point pace. Not sure where you got that number from. He was getting demoted after each try because he was ineffective.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I would have to go back and actually see which games and shifts he was in the top 6, but it sure wasn't a 50 point pace. Not sure where you got that number from. He was getting demoted after each try because he was ineffective.

So you don't know what it was, you just know what it wasn't. Sounds like you don't really know either.

I'm getting the number from the games where he plays minutes closer to what our "regular" top 6 players play. Initially it was > 12 per game 5v5. Even if you shorten it to ~14+ it holds at the 50+ point mark.

The only extended look that he's gotten here as a top 6 player was when he first got here last season, and his numbers are even better than what I'm saying.

What you're saying about him being "ineffective" just isn't correct.

 

[2Pair]

I would have to go back and actually see which games and shifts he was in the top 6, but it sure wasn't a 50 point pace. Not sure where you got that number from. He was getting demoted after each try because he was ineffective.

You're wrong. Continuing to repeat it really isn't a good look.

 

[TaLoN]

You're wrong. Continuing to repeat it really isn't a good look.

Or, my opinion happens to differ from yours. The trade market seems to back mine at this time though.

So you don't know what it was, you just know what it wasn't. Sounds like you don't really know either.

I'm getting the number from the games where he plays minutes closer to what our "regular" top 6 players play. Initially it was > 12 per game 5v5. Even if you shorten it to ~14+ it holds at the 50+ point mark.

The only extended look that he's gotten here as a top 6 player was when he first got here last season, and his numbers are even better than what I'm saying.

What you're saying about him being "ineffective" just isn't correct.

That doesn't answer the question either, as being in the top 6 would be determined by who he was playing with on the other wing and at center and would greatly affect who is on the other side defending.

Ice time alone cannot answer that.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

That doesn't answer the question either, as being in the top 6 would be determined by who he was playing with on the other wing and at center and would greatly affect who is on the other side defending.

Ice time alone cannot answer that.

It comes closer to answering than anything that you have presented. Are you saying that he wasn't playing in a top 6 role at the end of the 2018-19 season when he was averaging 15.5 minutes per game and frequently playing >16 minutes? Are you saying that he was playing in a top 6 role when he was playing 11 or fewer minutes in games this season? Neither of those pass the smell test.

 

[TaLoN]

It comes closer to answering than anything that you have presented. Are you saying that he wasn't playing in a top 6 role at the end of the 2018-19 season when he was averaging 15.5 minutes per game and frequently playing >16 minutes? Are you saying that he was playing in a top 6 role when he was playing 11 or fewer minutes in games this season? Neither of those pass the smell test.

I remember clearly he was in a top 6 role when we first acquired him, through the finish of that season.

I do remember clearly he played individual games and also got moved up and down the lineup in others this past season. His role in the top 6 was a lot more murky as a result. That said, I do remember he looked over matched when he was shifted up, and the comments claimed as much in the game threads as well. He gets knocked around a lot more when he plays up the lineup. That much was clear.

You brought up guesswork pacing. I disagree with your conclusion. It's a flawed method to come up with such a number, I'm not going to try.

 

[2Pair]

I remember clearly he was in a top 6 role when we first acquired him, through the finish of that season.

I do remember clearly he played individual games and also got moved up and down the lineup in others this past season. His role in the top 6 was a lot more murky as a result. That said, I do remember he looked over matched when he was shifted up, and the comments claimed as much in the game threads as well. He gets knocked around a lot more when he plays up the lineup. That much was clear.

You brought up guesswork pacing. I disagree with your conclusion. It's a flawed method to come up with such a number, I'm not going to try.

any chance of you using even just one fact in your argument?

 

[TaLoN]

any chance of you using even just one fact in your argument?

We're discussing observations of his game and where he fits in the lineup for reasoning on the trade value. I think the only thing I'd like different in the return was the 3rd being this season, otherwise the value fits. The reason that's ok? He wasn't going to win the numbers game, that much was clear. He didn't do enough to prove to the organization that he is a better winger than those above him in the lineup and his skillset is ill-suited to the bottom of the lineup.

 

[ThatGuy22]

In the three top 6 line combo's he saw significant minutes with making up about 1/3rd his TOI, they scored 7 goals and let in 6. One of those was centering Parise and Fiala and accounted for 4 of those goals(allowing 3).

In 2/3rd considered 4th the line, his lines scored 12 goals and only allowed 8.

So his line scoring rates where about the same in the top 6 as bottom, but got scored against much more in the top.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Just went through all of the games through 12/31/19 (38 games played) on Natural Stat Trick. There were 10 games where he saw at at least 5 minutes of ice time on a line with at least one of our top 6 players (Staal, Zuccarello, Fiala, Parise, Zucker), and in those 10 games he had 4 goals and 6 points (33 goal, 49 point pace). Funnily enough, 5 of those games were at center between Parise and Fiala, and he had 3 goals and 4 points in those 5 games.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Just went through all of the games through 12/31/19 (38 games played) on Natural Stat Trick. There were 10 games where he saw at at least 5 minutes of ice time on a line with at least one of our top 6 players (Staal, Zuccarello, Fiala, Parise, Zucker), and in those 10 games he had 4 goals and 6 points (33 goal, 49 point pace). Funnily enough, 5 of those games were at center between Parise and Fiala, and he had 3 goals and 4 points in those 5 games.

I was just about to post that. Playing with Naturalstattricks lineup tool and evolving hockey's line combo's page it became apparent that the only real success he had was centering Fiala and Parise. That line in 40ish minutes had good numbers and great metrics.

Every other top 6ish forward has worse numbers with Donato on the ice except Parise. And the only time they spent was with Donato at center. Fiala also had worse numbers with Donato due to the time they were centered by JEE.

Maybe we traded our 2C...

 

[keppel146]

You can’t play a guy like him over top guys who make the big money. Numbers thing plain and simple, wish him the best. I’ll take the 3rd over a guy who is constantly a healthy scratch. Let’s go find another Adam Beckman.

 

[Prior]

I wouldn’t deny he could play the Cheechoo/Seto role as the third wheel on a line with high quality players. But he’s not going to get that in San Jose at this point in time and that certainly wasn’t the case here. That’s why I feel it’s a little curious that the Sharks want him as opposed to a team like Edmonton.

When you have a roster make up like the Wild had/have and what the Sharks have, you need him to carry the play more and contribute to a line. Unfortunately for him, I don’t see a path for Donato to improve the one thing that holds him back at this level, edge work/balance. And if he cannot latch on and be a scorer in San Jose’s top 6, he will be out of this league within a year or two.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I was just about to post that. Playing with Naturalstattricks lineup tool and evolving hockey's line combo's page it became apparent that the only real success he had was centering Fiala and Parise. That line in 40ish minutes had good numbers and great metrics.

Every other top 6ish forward has worse numbers with Donato on the ice except Parise. And the only time they spent was with Donato at center. Fiala also had worse numbers with Donato due to the time they were centered by JEE.

Maybe we traded our 2C...

I don't know about "only success". 1+1 in the other 5 games isn't too bad, especially when you consider that at least a couple of those times were under 8 minutes and seem to be mid-game lineup adjustments.

Either way, the idea that he continuously failed just doesn't hold water.

 

[Bazeek]

What's done is done with Donato. I don't think he was persecuted or anything, but even Guerin didn't have a great explanation for his usage this year:

In an August podcast with The Athletic, Guerin said he actually told Donato in his exit meeting that he didn’t have a great answer as to why Donato routinely got the short shrift and maybe he should have stepped in and made clear that the coaches didn’t have to feel compelled to give other players a bigger role just because they might be a vet with a big contract or the home-grown draft pick

It sounds like he's likely to get more minutes and a clear role in San Jose, so at that point we'll probably get a better idea of what he is or isn't. With 3rd line minutes I'd be surprised if he doesn't get 20 next year.

In a lot of ways this whole situation goes back to the bungled GM hire. Fenton took over a team that needed an overhaul and got part way through it before getting canned. That left Donato without a role and without any real advocates within the organization, so the writing was probably on the wall. Sucks that we sold low on a guy that we kind of bought high on, but it's largely a function of that management snafu.

Still, it's a little irritating to see a team that lacks skill up front handle a young, skilled player like this. Donato's got plenty of warts, but he also produced without being given much. Why is it so hard to break down once in awhile and put a guy like that in a position to succeed? We yoked the entire goddamn team to Parise for 2 months trying to get him going and it just about killed our season out of the gates. And even once he "got going" he was almost invariably the worst player on whatever line he was on. Still led the forwards in ice time every night. One of the things I like about Guerin is that he seems as annoyed by that crap as I am, but I guess we'll see whether or not that's an illusion.

 

[2Pair]

What's done is done with Donato. I don't think he was persecuted or anything, but even Guerin didn't have a great explanation for his usage this year:


It sounds like he's likely to get more minutes and a clear role in San Jose, so at that point we'll probably get a better idea of what he is or isn't. With 3rd line minutes I'd be surprised if he doesn't get 20 next year.

In a lot of ways this whole situation goes back to the bungled GM hire. Fenton took over a team that needed an overhaul and got part way through it before getting canned. That left Donato without a role and without any real advocates within the organization, so the writing was probably on the wall. Sucks that we sold low on a guy that we kind of bought high on, but it's largely a function of that management snafu.

Still, it's a little irritating to see a team that lacks skill up front handle a young, skilled player like this. Donato's got plenty of warts, but he also produced without being given much. Why is it so hard to break down once in awhile and put a guy like that in a position to succeed? We yoked the entire goddamn team to Parise for 2 months trying to get him going and it just about killed our season out of the gates. And even once he "got going" he was almost invariably the worst player on whatever line he was on. Still led the forwards in ice time every night. One of the things I like about Guerin is that he seems as annoyed by that crap as I am, but I guess we'll see whether or not that's an illusion.

Parise is probably the main reason that Donato was traded

 

[Bazeek]

Parise is probably the main reason that Donato was traded

Oh I know, and that probably annoys me more than the trade itself. I get the distinct impression that he's going to be on this team next season and beyond and it's already sapping a lot of my interest.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Do you really think that Donato was traded to San Jose, so they could grab Dubnyk?