Does the volume of draft picks matter? An analysis

[Paxon]

Or a different explanation, which I think is actually closer to being right:

Detroit is the outlier to the general rule that having more draft picks is better than having fewer.

Kind of like how many advanced stats people throw out Buffalo this year in analysis b/c we're soooo freaking terrible, I think an analysis like this needs to more or less throw out Detroit, as they are the CLEAR outlier to this situation.

Moreover it's not as if it's indicated that having fewer picks has been "better" for Detroit. They made lesser pick values work with the right mix of existing team, luck, scouting, development, pro-level trades and signings, etc, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't have made it work even more if they had more pick value.

It happens quite a lot in NBA ... Celtics are on the tail end of it. Lakers are going thru it with the exception of Kobe.

Not to mention the Sixers, probably the biggest bottom out of them all considering their top draft picks in back to back years didn't play their rookie seasons due to pre-existing injury. They dumped probably every single non-rookie deal player as well as any players they got in return for those players.

 

[sabrebuild]

Moreover it's not as if it's indicated that having fewer picks has been "better" for Detroit. They made lesser pick values work with the right mix of existing team, luck, scouting, development, pro-level trades and signings, etc, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't have made it work even more if they had more pick value.



Not to mention the Sixers, probably the biggest bottom out of them all considering their top draft picks in back to back years didn't play their rookie seasons due to pre-existing injury. They dumped probably every single non-rookie deal player as well as any players they got in return for those players.

Just maybe the best tanking strategy of the modern era.

 

[Eram]

Just maybe the best tanking strategy of the modern era.

Gotta think so. I know Reinhart really struggled for us in his time here, but if we kept him up I could definitely see him being a difference maker later in the season (not that it's hard for this team, but still). Imagine we get McEichel and a knee injury takes them out for the season, we'd be close to a lock for a top 5 pick again.

 

[Crazy Tasty]

To the OP, Yes.

 

[StlSwedes]

I like the part where the Sabres have the most valuable draft ever before selling our assets this trade deadline.


I could see Stafford/Stewart going for 2016 draft picks ensuring that next years draft remains very valuable. Then in the 2016-2017 season we would begin to climb out of the basement. Would mean another year of terrible.

 

[Eram]

I could see Stafford/Stewart going for 2016 draft picks ensuring that next years draft remains very valuable. Then in the 2016-2017 season we would begin to climb out of the basement. Would mean another year of terrible.

I was wondering that myself too so I extended it into 2016. Here's an updated 5 year rolling chart, with the following assumptions:

- We pick 6th OV next year.
- Stewart and Stafford get traded for 2nd rounders this year and next. Guessed 50th OV for an average playoff team's spot.
- We don't particularly have any interesting UFA's to be sold next year so I left that part out.
- I didn't really bother adjusting the order of the other teams, outside of dropping ARI/CAR/NJD below EDM.

Looking at the maximum's around the table, our 5 year stretch here will be close to 25% higher than the next largest range. That's 22 1sts and 2nds, or 12 years of picks that also happen to be on the higher side. Pretty wild.

 

[StlSwedes]

Looking at the maximum's around the table, our 5 year stretch here will be close to 25% higher than the next largest range. That's 22 1sts and 2nds, or 12 years of picks that also happen to be on the higher side. Pretty wild.

Meaning, we are tanking, stockpiling, and rebuilding on a more extreme level than ever witnessed since 2000.

25% more in fact!

 

[Eram]

Meaning, we are tanking, stockpiling, and rebuilding on a more extreme level than ever witnessed since 2000.

25% more in fact!

Probably ever, I didn't bother with pre-salary cap data since as there wasn't as high of a focus on building through the draft. If anyone has a good data source where I can grab easily grab a table of picks over the years I can extend it back further.