Does Rantanen go ahead of Marner in a re-draft?

[Meeqs]

When you have 2 similar players the one in the Canadian market always gets the tie breaker. That hype machine is unrivaled.

For a more nuanced take, it really would depend on the team as they have fairly different skill sets as well as acknowledging that if one gets a significantly better contract that the other this offseason it'll massively swing the debate as well.

 

[cgf]

Toss up with Marner probably still a hair ahead, but I homer-voted.

 

[Randy Randerson]

When you have 2 similar players the one in the Canadian market always gets the tie breaker. That hype machine is unrivaled.

For a more nuanced take, it really would depend on the team as they have fairly different skill sets as well as acknowledging that if one gets a significantly better contract that the other this offseason it'll massively swing the debate as well.

they've been similar production wise for the last~130ish games, Rantanen has gotten about an extra minute of 5v5 time per game, and about an extra minute and a half of PP time per game. So while I do agree they're similar, Rantanen has done the same with tangibly more opportunity, with better average linemates in more offensive usage. So it definitely looks like there's an objective case to make in Marner's favour

 

[WilliamNylander]

I don't even have Rantanen within 3 spots of Marner to be completely honest. Good player but come on...

 

[cgf]

they've been similar production wise for the last~130ish games, Rantanen has gotten about an extra minute of 5v5 time per game, and about an extra minute and a half of PP time per game. So while I do agree they're similar, Rantanen has done the same with tangibly more opportunity, with better average linemates in more offensive usage. So it definitely looks like there's an objective case to make in Marner's favour

Has anyone done any studies/research that actually showed that players /game #s change in correlation with their PT increases even if the player is already getting top 6 minutes & regular PP time, since I last got sucked into these discussions?

Cause I remember reading some rudimentary stuff (maybe 2 years ago) which suggested that once players got over a certain PT threshold, that /60 #s fluctuated much more wildly than do /game #s...their conclusion having been that exhaustion & the additional attention from the opposition likely negated most of those increased opportunites for guys who were above that threshold to begin with...which both mikko n mitch are.

 

[Captain Bowie]

Can't go wrong either way.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Has anyone done any studies/research that actually showed that players /game #s change in correlation with their PT increases even if the player is already getting top 6 minutes & regular PP time, since I last got sucked into these discussions?

Cause I remember reading some rudimentary stuff (maybe 2 years ago) which suggested that once players got over a certain PT threshold, that /60 #s fluctuated much more wildly than do /game #s...their conclusion having been that exhaustion & the additional attention from the opposition likely negated most of those increased opportunites for guys who were above that threshold to begin with...which both mikko n mitch are.

I can see a case for diminishing returns for 5v5 time above a certain threshold, PP time is definitely not that same animal. Over the past 2 seasons, Rantanen is #6 in the league in powerplay points, and tied for #2 in PP toi/gp. Half of the forwards in the top 15 in pp toi/gp are also in the top 15 of the pp point producers for the same period, and the rest are scattered closely outside of that - that may not be an all encompassing study but it should demonstrate a strong correlation between pp time and pp production. Marner is 26th in PP points over the same period, and 119th in PP toi/gp.

I'm also not meaning to trash Rantanen, just saying to that other guy that people picking Marner here might have more reason to than "the Canadian market hype machine"

 

[34]

Marner goes first.

It is very safe to say Marner goes second behind McDavid at one.

 

[4chandler]

Marner goes first.

It is very safe to say Marner goes second behind McDavid at one.

Eichel and Provorov go ahead of Marner and I say that as a Leafs fan.

 

[34]

Eichel and Provorov go ahead of Marner and I say that as a Leafs fan.

Eichel maybe but not Provorov. No way.

 

[Dr Salt]

Marner.

 

[93LEAFS]

Toss up with Marner probably still a hair ahead, but I homer-voted.

Fair enough, I do that in this poll generally when it pops up. It's had its ebs and flows with one temp being better than the other. I think both fanbases are really happy with how 2015 played out.

I'm just glad Mitch got to show it off this year playing with an elite center like Rantanen got to last year.

 

[cgf]

I can see a case for diminishing returns for 5v5 time above a certain threshold, PP time is definitely not that same animal. Over the past 2 seasons, Rantanen is #6 in the league in powerplay points, and tied for #2 in PP toi/gp. Half of the forwards in the top 15 in pp toi/gp are also in the top 15 of the pp point producers for the same period, and the rest are scattered closely outside of that - that may not be an all encompassing study but it should demonstrate a strong correlation between pp time and pp production. Marner is 26th in PP points over the same period, and 119th in PP toi/gp.

I'm also not meaning to trash Rantanen, just saying to that other guy that people picking Marner here might have more reason to than "the Canadian market hype machine"

I can see that being the case with PP time. As I'm pretty sure that what I read didn't separate 5on5 time from PP-time.

As for the bolded, I think we have a chicken or the egg question to resolve there before that can really be used as evidence.

 

[BlueDream]

Marner is easily the better player. Rantanen plays with MacKinnon.

 

[Sweetpotato]

Marner but theres 3-6 players who all have a legit shot at 3 and possibly even 2nd depending on outcomes, I think Marner, Barzal and Eichel could all be #2 eventually.

 

[Pi]

Better question is if Eichel goes ahead in a redraft. The McMarner draft is crazy good.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I can see that being the case with PP time. As I'm pretty sure that what I read didn't separate 5on5 time from PP-time.

As for the bolded, I think we have a chicken or the egg question to resolve there before that can really be used as evidence.

agree on the chicken or the egg ideology in the vein of "do they get that much PP time because they're good, or good because they get that much PP time?", but that only holds up in this context if you really believe that Marner wouldn't score more PP points if given more PP time, and given his efficiency over the last ~400 mins of PP time (last 2 seasons) I think it's very tough to say that with a straight face

and again, that's not to say that Rantanen isn't worthy of the PP time he gets, he is, just that Marner is too and has produced along side Rantanen without it

 

[justafan22]

Eichel maybe but not Provorov. No way.

Rantanen > Provorov by a mile.

 

[34]

Rantanen > Provorov by a mile.

I agree. No comparison.

 

[El Travo]

Both teams got the guy they want. I just went with my guy because he's a behemoth and a good hockey player.