Speculation: Does marner's get signed before Willy?

Trapper

Registered User
Nov 21, 2013
23,736
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I agree, Willie is done in TO. There simply will not be enough money to go around. Dubas was foolish to state "we will sign all three" instead of the goal was to sign all 3. Cockiness for sure.
Time to play asset management and move the chairs around. Trade Willie now. Address the other elephant in the room. The D.
Signing all 3 would have been a different statement or task if you had a viable D group already locked up in addition to the statement.
As it stands, the D is weak and Gardiner is a UFA. Rielly/Zaitsev will be the only 2 players with top 4 experience and more than a year.
 

Razz

Registered User
Jan 23, 2011
4,457
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Mississauga
Up until today, I believed Nylander would sign, now I'm less certain. He's clearly not wanting to sign a team friendly deal. That's totally ok and understandable, but that will not work anymore in this market.

They may have to ship him to a rebuilding team at this point. Nylander wants to get his contract settled at the high number and he can focus on winning later in his career. Have to respect that but the Leafs have to do what's right for the franchise right now.
 

Matthews4Calder

Registered User
Nov 27, 2016
465
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BC Western Canada
I think Dubas and management screwed up here. I still go back to his comments about talking to the big 3 before signing JT. Sounded like they were on board to some extent to take a discount to keep the core together. Also he said it wouldn't be fair to trade one of the 3 after signing JT. So why are we in this predicament? Dubas should have tried signing all 3 in the summer. Now we are in a pickle with Nylander and we give Marner and Matthews an opportunity to have a better season and then what is it going to cost the Leafs. I can understand Nylander's point of view but if the numbers are correct and he wants 8 million sorry Willy you haven't earned it yet. I personally think he's going to be traded and I wouldn't like that as he's a great player but if we can bolster our D go for it. Regardless I think what we expected to sign the other 2 for is going to be a lot less than what they are going to get. I can see Matthews and Marner eating $20 million. League is out of control and I blame the owners and managers. It's sports and I understand the money these guys can make but players coming off their ELC's don't deserve anywhere near 10+ million unless they are exceptional. McDavid yes and I may slide Matthews in their but anyone else no. Their 3rd contract is where they should be making their big payday. Tavares last contract was under $6 million annually. Does he deserve $11 million up for debate but he has paid his dues and kudos to him. Nylander hasn't earned $8 million not even $7 million.
 
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LeafsNation75

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Jan 15, 2010
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Toronto, Ontario
I think Dubas and management screwed up here. I still go back to his comments about talking to the big 3 before signing JT. Sounded like they were on board to some extent to take a discount to keep the core together. Also he said it wouldn't be fair to trade on of the 3 to JT. So why are we in this predicament? Dubas should have tried signing all 3 in the summer. Now we are in a pickle with Nylander and we give Marner and Matthews an opportunity to have a better season and then what is it going to cost the Leafs. I can understand Nylander's point of view but if the numbers are correct and he wants 8 million sorry Willy you haven't earned it yet. I personally think he's going to be traded and I wouldn't like that as he's a great player but if we can bolster our D go for it. Regardless I think what we expected to sign the other 2 for is going to be a lot less than what they are going to get. I can see Matthews and Marner eating $20 million. League is out of control and I blame the owners and managers. It's sports and I understand the money these guys can make but players coming off their ELC's don't deserve anywhere near 10+ million unless they are exceptional. McDavid yes and I may slide Matthews in their but anyone else no. Their 3rd contract is where they should be making their big payday. Tavares last contract was under $6 million annually. Does he deserve $11 million up for debate but he has paid his dues and kudos to him. Nylander hasn't earned $8 million not even $7 million.
What about Nylander choosing not to sign his extension during the summer of 2017? From the reporting the Leafs are offering him a long term contract at the same terms they were at that time when Lou Lamoriello was their GM, however Nylander decided to bet on himself and he didn't put up the numbers last season to ask for $8.5 million.
 

Razz

Registered User
Jan 23, 2011
4,457
719
Mississauga
I think Dubas and management screwed up here. I still go back to his comments about talking to the big 3 before signing JT. Sounded like they were on board to some extent to take a discount to keep the core together. Also he said it wouldn't be fair to trade one of the 3 after signing JT. So why are we in this predicament? Dubas should have tried signing all 3 in the summer. Now we are in a pickle with Nylander and we give Marner and Matthews an opportunity to have a better season and then what is it going to cost the Leafs. I can understand Nylander's point of view but if the numbers are correct and he wants 8 million sorry Willy you haven't earned it yet. I personally think he's going to be traded and I wouldn't like that as he's a great player but if we can bolster our D go for it. Regardless I think what we expected to sign the other 2 for is going to be a lot less than what they are going to get. I can see Matthews and Marner eating $20 million. League is out of control and I blame the owners and managers. It's sports and I understand the money these guys can make but players coming off their ELC's don't deserve anywhere near 10+ million unless they are exceptional. McDavid yes and I may slide Matthews in their but anyone else no. Their 3rd contract is where they should be making their big payday. Tavares last contract was under $6 million annually. Does he deserve $11 million up for debate but he has paid his dues and kudos to him. Nylander hasn't earned $8 million not even $7 million.

How do you know Dubas hasn't tried to sign all 3? Clearly, he has as we know for sure Marner and Matthews were engaged in contract discussions. For all we know, those two are ready to sign after Nylander gets sorted out. The Leafs are trying to spend roughly 200 million dollars. It's not going to be a walk in the park.

Also, please for all of us here, use paragraphs.
 
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Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
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Marner should prove he's the real deal Leafs playerfan and sign now.

That would show true leadership and loyalty.

Marner won’t sign before Nylander imo, that would be a bad financial move.
 

Myopic

Registered User
Feb 26, 2017
1,229
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I think Marner will definitely give the Leafs a home discount. He, more than most, knows the history of the Leafs and is aware that you need good supplemental players to win a cup. Mitch won't be as generous as Naz but close to it relatively speaking. I'm talking in the 8M a year range.
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
26,934
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So you're saying he's about the money?

;)

Real life vs fan board

Money is a strong motivator to us all, I don’t hold it against anyone holding out for money. Heck I’ve done similar thing more then once in my career......end of the day worked out well for me every time and I wouldn’t change a thing.
 

NorthCoast

Registered User
May 1, 2017
1,250
1,167
This is correct.

Because of the Florida tax situation, playing making less in AAV there, are still making more than many other markets.

It's the main reason why Tampa put together a big pitch for Tavares, even though they don't have all that much cap space to work with.

Sens fan here in peace.


I've been looking into this a bit and have found some interesting data related to bonus framework and taxes.

With front-loading the contacts and paying out most of the $$$ as bonuses, the Canadian teams are potentially levelling the playing field. This is due to how bonus payments are taxed differently than standard income. NOTE: would love for an actual tax accountant to clear this up properly but here is my best attempt at showing the impact on the Tavares contract:

Capture.jpg


Essentially, Bonus is taxed at 35% vs. standard income at 53%. Plus, by front-loading players get benefit of interest on the money in hand now vs. later. You can see more about how I got here in this thread.

Just so it's clear. Not complaining about big-market advantage here. Simply interested in how the contract mechanics are actually impacting player decisions on where to sign. If all the big markets start paying out contracts as bonus to give players more money...it's a league issue. Not the players or markets fault.
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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Leafs Home Board
Marner should prove he's the real deal Leafs playerfan and sign now.

That would show true leadership and loyalty.

Loyalty, smoyalty !!.

Dubas can sell Marner on the fact he can live in his Mom's basement so therefore can offer a nice hometown discount to offset the cost of living to Mitch savings passing them on to the team in the $7 mil range and then get Nylander to jump on board for $6.5-$6.75 mil using that leverage. :wg:

Ouch, that hurt .. I just pinched myself and realized I was awake and not still dreaming.
 

Matthews4Calder

Registered User
Nov 27, 2016
465
302
BC Western Canada
How do you know Dubas hasn't tried to sign all 3? Clearly, he has as we know for sure Marner and Matthews were engaged in contract discussions. For all we know, those two are ready to sign after Nylander gets sorted out. The Leafs are trying to spend roughly 200 million dollars. It's not going to be a walk in the park.

Also, please for all of us here, use paragraphs.


LOL I did but it's only 1.
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
86,913
11,862
Leafs Home Board
Apparently Marners agent was spotted talking to Kyle post game. The way nylander talks seem be going..does marner's ink a deal first?
Mitch Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, joined Leafs Lunch on Friday to discuss ongoing negotiations for his client’s second contract in Toronto and Marner’s love for the organization.

Mitch Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, on contract negotiations: “We’ve had some very productive discussions so far… If nothing is done by the start of the season, then we’ll wait until next summer and we’ll get back at it again”

Q: Just to be clear, you’re saying that if it’s not done by next Wednesday, then your preference would be to wait until after the season?

Ferris
: That would be my preference. I haven’t stated it to them, but it is my preference and Mitch’s — to concentrate on the year at hand and work towards winning a Cup this year possibly. If things can be worked out, then it’s great. You get a deal done. But there is time. There is still another year to go. I’m sure, as much as they’d like to get it done now, if it’s not the right deal, then we’ll have to wait. That, as you said, is not unusual.

So what you might have here is nothing more than, since the season has started that Marner's agent telling Dubas talks are off until next summer.
 
Last edited:

Knightnight

Registered User
Mar 18, 2014
626
109
Marner should prove he's the real deal Leafs playerfan and sign now.

That would show true leadership and loyalty.

And what would that get him? He did not get all his bonuses to help team on his first contract. Did that benefit him. NO. He was treated like the ugly sister in the press and by his coach. 34 got all his bonuses and even a press conference saying he earned them and deserved them. Marner helping the team was never mentioned. Old saying fool me once...
You think if he takes a discount it makes him a leader. The media and fans already anointed Mattthews and Tavares as the leaders, so please explain how him signing at a premature discount this helps him.
 

Carltons Cup

Let's Do This..
Feb 22, 2018
2,863
4,580
As much as it pains me to say this, but you gotta give Mitch his ask (or close to it) because he'll be a stud in this league for a long time...
 

nuck

Schrodingers Cat
Aug 18, 2005
11,340
2,422
Marner won’t sign before Nylander imo, that would be a bad financial move.

Only a bad move for Willie. If Marner signs for a "reasonable" number that kind of scraps the Draisaitl contract dream for team Gross. Signing a home run contract at 21 is still pretty rare. Marner is not getting his pocket picked for signing at close to Gaudreau money. His "partial season = 90pts" is not the same as Johnny's "actual season = 78pts"
 

TDotMassive

Registered User
Jul 13, 2018
786
509
6ix
Willy better sign before Marner racks up 80+ points this season and signs his extension. If Willy sits the season, and Marner hits 80+ and signs for 8-9m, it destroys Willy's leverage. How can Willy, then a 60 point player, compare himself to Marner, an 80-90 point player, and expect the same money? Marner is going to take a huge leap forward in his skills progression this season, should be in the 80-90 pt range if healthy, maybe even an outside shot at 100. Meanwhile... Willy is still trying to negotiate based on his 60 point production.

Matthews = 12.5m
Marner = 8.5m
Nylander = 7m

Those numbers make sense to me, and that seems to gifting Willy a bit.
 

Tak7

Registered User
Nov 1, 2009
12,623
4,094
GTA or the UK
Sens fan here in peace.


I've been looking into this a bit and have found some interesting data related to bonus framework and taxes.

With front-loading the contacts and paying out most of the $$$ as bonuses, the Canadian teams are potentially levelling the playing field. This is due to how bonus payments are taxed differently than standard income. NOTE: would love for an actual tax accountant to clear this up properly but here is my best attempt at showing the impact on the Tavares contract:

Capture.jpg


Essentially, Bonus is taxed at 35% vs. standard income at 53%. Plus, by front-loading players get benefit of interest on the money in hand now vs. later. You can see more about how I got here in this thread.

Just so it's clear. Not complaining about big-market advantage here. Simply interested in how the contract mechanics are actually impacting player decisions on where to sign. If all the big markets start paying out contracts as bonus to give players more money...it's a league issue. Not the players or markets fault.

This is really good stuff.
Thanks for sharing this.
This could be the equalizer for other markets against those tax-favorable teams.
 

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