Does Dubinsky get bought out by July 1?

[majormajor]

I just saw something on hockey reference.com which surprised me:

Brandon Dubinsky NHL Advanced Statistics (Even Strength) | Hockey-Reference.com

ES goals against/60 minutes:

Dubinsky 3.2
Jones 3.3
Atkinson 3.8
Werenski 3.3
Panarin 3.4

I saw others who had less and I had to go to too many screens to make a complete list, but Dubinsky had 79.7% dzone starts.

You might be curious to know why so many of our top scorers have a high goals for and a high goals against rate at ES. The answer is that they play 3v3, which skews the ES numbers. That's why we want to look at the 5 v 5 numbers. If you just look at 5 v 5, Dubinsky is ahead of the pack in terms of goals against.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Why does a thread "ALWAYS" turn into a buyout Dubinsky or fire Torts thread?

Its almost like Dubi and Wennberg are 2 guys fighting for the same 2 spots on the ice along with being the 2 most popular buyout candidates around here on HF, no?

Fire Dubinksy and buy out Torts.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

You might be curious to know why so many of our top scorers have a high goals for and a high goals against rate at ES. The answer is that they play 3v3, which skews the ES numbers. That's why we want to look at the 5 v 5 numbers. If you just look at 5 v 5, Dubinsky is ahead of the pack in terms of goals against.

I knew that 4 on 4 was ES included but I really didn't consider OT. It's goofy, but it is ES.

Thanks for the insight on that. It will help me better use various stats.

 

[majormajor]

As Cyclones said, most of the time Dubi started in the DZ. And a lot of the time he would take the draw, and if he won it, would go immediately to the bench. If he didn't win it he'd be stuck out there. So, that has to contribute negatively to his GF-GA numbers. I think its a bit nit-picky for a fourth line player.

He starts an extreme number of his shifts in the defensive zone, a higher portion than anyone. But it's still not most of his shifts. Dubi jumps over the boards maybe half the time. According to natural stat trick 28% of Dubi's starts were in the D-zone.

It certainly drags down his numbers. But you can compare that to other players in his position (on that same page, click on the Dzone start column to sort by it). There are good defensive players in the league who start a lot of shifts in the D-zone, and they managed to keep the goals against from ballooning out of control. Those players can rightfully be called "good defensive players". I don't think we can lump Dubinsky in with that group, because his results were bad.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

He starts an extreme number of his shifts in the defensive zone, a higher portion than anyone. But it's still not most of his shifts. Dubi jumps over the boards maybe half the time. According to natural stat trick 28% of Dubi's starts were in the D-zone.

It certainly drags down his numbers. But you can compare that to other players in his position (on that same page, click on the Dzone start column to sort by it). There are good defensive players in the league who start a lot of shifts in the D-zone, and they managed to keep the goals against from ballooning out of control. Those players can rightfully be called "good defensive players". I don't think we can lump Dubinsky in with that group, because his results were bad.

Regardless, if we do buy out Dubinsky that's three buyout contracts on the books. Yes, we did it before with Commodore, Tyutin, and Boll (IIRC) but I can't imagine ownership would be too thrilled with this again. Especially if the team is in the bottom this year.

It's not like he's preventing kids from coming up and taking a role. Without Dubinsky it just means a heavily incresed workload and faceoff duties for Nash, Jenner, and maybe even Foligno. That's not exactly an ideal scenario.

Yes I know fourth line players are a dime a dozen and we could pick up a guy in UFA to do his exact role. But that's paying two people (because Dubinsky will still be getting paid, significantly) for one role. I just don't see it happening or being worth it. We don't need the money, he's not preventing a kid from taking a roster spot, and the expansion draft isn't a worry with him.

 

[majormajor]

Regardless, if we do buy out Dubinsky that's three buyout contracts on the books. Yes, we did it before with Commodore, Tyutin, and Boll (IIRC) but I can't imagine ownership would be too thrilled with this again. Especially if the team is in the bottom this year.

It's not like he's preventing kids from coming up and taking a role. Without Dubinsky it just means a heavily incresed workload and faceoff duties for Nash, Jenner, and maybe even Foligno. That's not exactly an ideal scenario.

Yes I know fourth line players are a dime a dozen and we could pick up a guy in UFA to do his exact role. But that's paying two people (because Dubinsky will still be getting paid, significantly) for one role. I just don't see it happening or being worth it. We don't need the money, he's not preventing a kid from taking a roster spot, and the expansion draft isn't a worry with him.

I don't care about his paycheck, and there's really good reasons to not buy him out and stretch out the cap hit. I just want much better results from Dubi if we're keeping him on. A random 4th liner would have been a big improvement on Dubi last year. He had some good playoff games, there's some hope.

 

[Xoggz22]

Will he or won't he?

The buyout period begins June 15 and ends on June 30.

I think he should, but really don't have a strong feeling as to which way management will go. A lot depends on the Duchene situation and trades. If the team needs the cap room, he's obviously gone. If not, I think he stays another year.

If I were running the show, I'd demand that he waive his NMC and be willing to go to Cleveland-even if I wanted to keep him around another year to minimize the length of his buyout ramifications. If I decided that I wouldn't buy him out and he wouldn't go to Cleveland, he would get the Vinny Lecavalier Flyers treatment. Press Box every single game.

I think it's a coin flip and I voted "no".

EDIT: I should have included this info :

Brandon Dubinsky Buyout Details

Cost Calculations

BUYOUT DATE	BASE SALARY REMAINING	S.BONUS REMAINING	YEARS REMAINING	BUYOUT LENGTH	AGE	BUYOUT RATIO	TOTAL COST	TOTAL SAVINGS	ANNUAL COST
Jun 15, 2019	$11,700,000	$0	2	4	33	2/3	$7,800,000	$3,900,000	$1,950,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Cap Hit Calculations

SEASON	BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	ACTUAL COST	SAVINGS	FINAL CAP HIT
2019-20	$5,850,000	$5,850,000	$1,950,000	$3,900,000	$1,950,000
2020-21	$5,850,000	$5,850,000	$1,950,000	$3,900,000	$1,950,000
2021-22	$0	$0	$1,950,000	-$1,950,000	$1,950,000
2022-23	$0	$0	$1,950,000	-$1,950,000	$1,950,000
TOTAL	$11,700,000	$11,700,000	$7,800,000	$3,900,000	$7,800,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

No. Don't see it happening. There is no need to at this point.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Can you say definitively today if there will or won’t be any contract buyouts?

Most likely no, but you never rule anything out.

A conversation with Jarmo Kekalainen: Blue Jackets GM looks...

 

[MoeBartoli]

A conversation with Jarmo Kekalainen: Blue Jackets GM looks...

I caught that too. But interesting was he mentioned a lot of Center candidates but Dubinsky wasn't among the list.

 

[Maylo]

I caught that too. But interesting was he mentioned a lot of Center candidates but Dubinsky wasn't among the list.

He's not a center, he is heart and soul and energy!

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I caught that too. But interesting was he mentioned a lot of Center candidates but Dubinsky wasn't among the list.

So apparently he wasn't drunk during the interview.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

So apparently he wasn't drunk during the interview.

Well, he did say he expects Wennberg to be better next year.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Well, he did say he expects Wennberg to be better next year.

Good point. I withdraw my initial BAC assessment.

 

[majormajor]

Well, he did say he expects Wennberg to be better next year.

He basically said that we didn't have a huge hole at center. So yes, possibly drunk.

 

[thebus88]

People need to look at Boone Jenner's faceoff stats. Regular season and playoffs.

The huge number of draws and a decent %. I was surprised how many draws he actually took. I find the lack of his faceoffs numbers, for people to counteract my ( and others) opinion on Dubinsky's faceoff value
to the team, interesting.

Very well could be our 2c next year. And Dubi could be a split 3C/4C with Wennberg or Dalpe, with the lines having similar ice time but different "deployment" or "usage".

 

[CBJWerenski8]

People need to look at Boone Jenner's faceoff stats. Regular season and playoffs.

The huge number of draws and a decent %. I was surprised how many draws he actually took. I find the lack of his faceoffs numbers, for people to counteract my ( and others) opinion on Dubinsky's faceoff value
to the team, interesting.

Very well could be our 2c next year. And Dubi could be a split 3C/4C with Wennberg or Dalpe, with the lines having similar ice time but different "deployment" or "usage".

I don't think anyone doubts Jenner's faceoff ability. They doubt his defensive play as a center as well as his ability to keep up with the speed to play in the middle. He's also not exactly the creative type.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

People need to look at Boone Jenner's faceoff stats. Regular season and playoffs.

The huge number of draws and a decent %. I was surprised how many draws he actually took. I find the lack of his faceoffs numbers, for people to counteract my ( and others) opinion on Dubinsky's faceoff value
to the team, interesting.

Very well could be our 2c next year. And Dubi could be a split 3C/4C with Wennberg or Dalpe, with the lines having similar ice time but different "deployment" or "usage".

Absolutely no way Dubinsky slides up to 3C. Stop it with this Dalpe nonsense.

As-is, with no Duchene or FA/trades, Wennberg and Jenner/Foligno will play middle-six C, with Dubinsky/Nash at 4C.

 

[thebus88]

I don't think anyone doubts Jenner's faceoff ability. They doubt his defensive play as a center as well as his ability to keep up with the speed to play in the middle. He's also not exactly the creative type.

What I'm saying is his total number of draws could mean something when it comes to the teams future at center and how the coaching staff feels about him playing center.

This idea he has an issue at "defensive play as a center" or an issue with his "ability to keep up-in the middle", is bogus. He's probably the teams best defensive PKer and he gets up and down the ice as good as anybody on the team. Might be a little "choppy", and he might have to take an extra stride, but he'll take that extra stride. The ice isn't that big, what's the difference of 10-20 feet? And much of our and other teams "systems" involve much more of an offensive rotation/cycle on the ice anyway.

"He's not exactly the creative type", is complete bogus also. This will just turn into me posting Jenner assist video's on a Dubinsky thread, but there's a reason Boone can do what he does at the NHL level with the "tools" he has, or maybe should say what you think he has.

Pretty crossovers don't get shit done in the NHL.

 

[thebus88]

Absolutely no way Dubinsky slides up to 3C. Stop it with this Dalpe nonsense.

As-is, with no Duchene or FA/trades, Wennberg and Jenner/Foligno will play middle-six C, with Dubinsky/Nash at 4C.

3rd line and 4th line would get similar icetime depending on game situation. Same as the end of year and the playoffs this past year.

Why is talking about Dalpe, nonsense? 33 goals in 55 games. Best goals per game in the league. Point per game also and a quite good +/- on a mediocre team also. Vast majority of guys at a PPG pace in the AHL are on the cusp of becoming NHL players, or bounce up and down "regularly".

Why would a person be fine claiming Wennberg, or Milano or Stenlund or others in the past, on the 3rd line, but Dalpe is "nonsense"?

Why WAS Wennberg healthy scratched, and was it the right or wrong move?

 

[majormajor]

Why would a person be fine claiming Wennberg, or Milano or Stenlund or others in the past, on the 3rd line, but Dalpe is "nonsense"?

Fair question. I thought he was underutilized last year at the NHL level. I'd say Dalpe compares fairly well with the others on our list of "NHL/AHL tweeners that don't belong in a top 9 role." In other words, we don't want him on the third line, and it would take a lot of improvement to justify any of those others on the third line.

 

[thebus88]

Fair question. I thought he was underutilized last year at the NHL level. I'd say Dalpe compares fairly well with the others on our list of "NHL/AHL tweeners that don't belong in a top 9 role." In other words, we don't want him on the third line, and it would take a lot of improvement to justify any of those others on the third line.

I mean none of these other guys is putting up points, mainly goals like that, while (I believe) playing center. He was also +17 ( I believe) on a not great team. So I think some are downplaying his actual ability. Literally the best goals per game in the league, 1 behind the actual leader in actual goals. If Milano were to put up goals/points like that (consistently, he's shown his flashes everywhere) people would want Jarmo and Torts head on a stake him not being in Columbus.

The things is, I think we're really talking/arguing about semantics again. Not all teams have a set line breakdown (by minutes) of 1st-2nd-3rd-4th. That's to say not all teams have their lines set up by "skill" this way in relation to their team or say the "NHL average", whatever that means. I also don't think you put a leader in goals in ANY league on a "4th" or defensive minded line, so Dalpe would (or should imo) have to be looked at in a "scoring" role.

In an offensive worst case scenario, with no signings or traded defenseman, I think this team would be built like this:

1st-2nd-4th-4th OR 1st-3rd-3rd-4th

Both in relation to other NHL teams and the way Torts attempted to utilize them. My, Bemstrom-Dalpe-Texier line would be the 1st-4th line in the 1st category, and be fine 12-13 a night, "sheltered".

I would like Dalpe on the wing and him centered by Jenner or Foligno. Again, this is all a fantasy and essentially worst case scenario, and could possibly be considered literally impossible.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

Not this year.

 

[EspenK]

Got this one wrong. And the way things turned out it is probably the right thing to not do, Don't need the $, hopefully he can be an asset.

 

[MAHJ71]

Got this one wrong. And the way things turned out it is probably the right thing to not do, Don't need the $, hopefully he can be an asset.

As long as his FO% stays up I think he's more valuable than a buyout at this point.

 

[Fro]

Will be done next year when another year is off the books