Does Dubinsky get bought out by July 1?

Does Dubinsky get bought out by July 1, 2019?


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    70

Double-Shift Lasse

Just post better
Dec 22, 2004
33,346
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Exurban Cbus
I voted no but that's a prediction rather than an opinion.

Dubi's in steep decline, but I don't think he meets either of (at least what I'd consider) the two thresholds for buyout: 1) the team needs the cap space/cash; and 2) the team is made immediately better with the player gone.
 
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Long Live Lyle

Registered User
Feb 10, 2019
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These arguments to keep him seem to be we can afford him, he wants to be here and he's a face of the Jackets. Yikes. For him being a Torts player, he sure didn't get a lot of TOI that suggests that Torts loves him.

Hell, keep Wennberg for another year and buyout Dubi. Wennie still qualifies for the 1/3 buyout after next season. He can produce more than Dubi will.

I think it’s less that we can afford him period, more that we know we can afford him next year but don’t know yet 2022-23/2021-22. You did really good work in your cap projections, but they were just that: projections. Maybe some or all of Texier/PLD/Anderson/Bjorkstrand are 30+ G, 70+ P players. Maybe Elvis becomes a Vezina finalist. Maybe we make a similar trade to the Panarin one, and that guy actually wants to re-sign here and needs a huge contract. We just don’t know. And none of those things are extremely outlandish possibilities.

As I’ve said, I do think our other 4th line options are better than Dubinsky. I also don’t think they’re “so much” better that our WAR with them in vs. Dubi would be 1.0 or greater, particularly with 4th line TOI.
 

Madifer

Registered User
Oct 2, 2018
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My answer is: it depends.

A buyout would bring multiple good news imo.
 

CBJx614

Registered User
May 25, 2012
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Here's a prediction I made in February that came true, Murray playing 19 less games than Wennberg...

---Another reminder that Ryan Murray is outscoring Alexander Wennberg, and very well will be at the end of the year.​
thebus88, Feb 3, 2019---

Since the poll shows and the mindset seem to be that most people (non dependant on what they "want" or think "should" happen) dont think Dubi will bought out before next year, maybe the question/poll should be altered to more of a "toss up" subject related to your question on how many games he plays.

Who plays more games in a CBJ jersey next year, Dubinsky or Wennberg?
You're constant defense of Dubinsky is no better than my over hyping of Wennberg. At least I can admit when I'm wrong.

And at least with Wennberg there's still a chance he rebounds and is a 30-50pt player when used right. And while that may not be in Columbus, his WHC performance has shown he can still compete and keep up with some of the best players in the world.

Can you say the same for Dubinsky??

With Dubinsky, it's all downhill from here. He's not getting better and it's just a matter of how long can he keep playing without being a total liability on the ice. He's a gritty warrior on the ice but the years have not been kind to him. It's the nature of his style of play that's wearing his body down and he's already far beyond his prime..

Nobody is saying Dubinsky doesn't mean a great deal to the organization, he was a major piece in helping transition away from the country club atmosphere, but he's walking a fine line of usefulness and being a overpaid liability on the ice.
 

JacketsDavid

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Jan 11, 2013
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IN my mind it comes down to a savings of $3.9M and what can you do with it. I don't see that savings as something that will make us better?

2019-20 would give us an extra $3.9M and honestly don't think we need the money.
2020-21 would also give us an extra $3.9M. Who knows if we need the money then? This would be only reason to definitely do it is if the team planned on going all in at the deadline in 2019-20 or for 2020-21 season.
2021-22 and 2022-23 it would cost us an extra $1.95M each year.

If you decide to cut him, cut him. But please never believe another "we only want guys who want to be here in Columbus" lip service. Dubi wants to be here. He's been in the dog house a few times but also finds his way back.

So if you want to cut someone for being overpaid - go ahead and cut the captain. Due $16.5M, buyout would be $11M. So Saves $5.5M. Saves $3.6M for next 3 seasons...
 

LoveCBJ

Registered User
Jan 17, 2009
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I love Dubi and hope he stays but I think he will eventually be part of the coaching staff. He needs to work on faceoffs with everyone on the team.
 

Cyclones Rock

Registered User
Jun 12, 2008
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Nope although he is not an offensive force he is a Torts style player.
Also the CBJ seemed to be featuring him and the Captain a lot last week during Memorial Tournament, and if a player is on way out they typically avoid that.
Could it happen - certainly but as others have noted we don't need the cap space. THat could change, but right now for a team wanting to "keep guys who want to be here" would look very bad to buy out a Columbus/Dublin resident.

Good observation!
 

MoeBartoli

Checkers-to-Jackets
Jan 12, 2011
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You're constant defense of Dubinsky is no better than my over hyping of Wennberg. At least I can admit when I'm wrong.

And at least with Wennberg there's still a chance he rebounds and is a 30-50pt player when used right. And while that may not be in Columbus, his WHC performance has shown he can still compete and keep up with some of the best players in the world.

Can you say the same for Dubinsky??

With Dubinsky, it's all downhill from here. He's not getting better and it's just a matter of how long can he keep playing without being a total liability on the ice. He's a gritty warrior on the ice but the years have not been kind to him. It's the nature of his style of play that's wearing his body down and he's already far beyond his prime..

Nobody is saying Dubinsky doesn't mean a great deal to the organization, he was a major piece in helping transition away from the country club atmosphere, but he's walking a fine line of usefulness and being a overpaid liability on the ice.
Good post. I think you are spot on with both your Wennberg and Dubi assessments, adding only more certainty about any Wennberg re-emergence not being here.


IN my mind it comes down to a savings of $3.9M and what can you do with it. I don't see that savings as something that will make us better?

2019-20 would give us an extra $3.9M and honestly don't think we need the money.
2020-21 would also give us an extra $3.9M. Who knows if we need the money then? This would be only reason to definitely do it is if the team planned on going all in at the deadline in 2019-20 or for 2020-21 season.
2021-22 and 2022-23 it would cost us an extra $1.95M each year.

If you decide to cut him, cut him. But please never believe another "we only want guys who want to be here in Columbus" lip service. Dubi wants to be here. He's been in the dog house a few times but also finds his way back.

So if you want to cut someone for being overpaid - go ahead and cut the captain. Due $16.5M, buyout would be $11M. So Saves $5.5M. Saves $3.6M for next 3 seasons...
Foligno play falls short of his salary. But he remains a solid, slightly above average player. But if the league were full of Dubinsky types, the Captain would be an All Star.

While I've been accused of being a Dubi basher, I'd be the first to fully acknowledge his importance to the Jackets. But that was then and this is now.
 

cslebn

80 forever
Feb 15, 2012
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A buyout this summer as has been mentioned saves 3.9M on the cap for 19/20 and 20/21 but costs 1.95M for the two years after that with a total savings of 3.9M

A buyout next summer saves 3.9M for 20/21 but only costs 1.95M for one year after that.

I could see ownership being interested in saving money if he's not going to play (see Horton and Clarkson) but that currently isn't the case.

Unless we go do something big and need money then Dubi isn't going anywhere. That being said, next summer could be different with Andy, PLD, likely Murray, and etc needing raises. We currently only have 1 RFA for 22 and that's Bjorkatrand (Dubi, Nick, Savard, and Nash UFA), so a cap penalty isn't that bad that year.

That's also a year before Nuti and Jones need new contracts.
 
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Viqsi

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Oct 5, 2007
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YOUR "NUMBERS" DO NOT MEAN WHAT YOU CLAIM THEY MEAN

He's our 2nd best defensive center (at worst) after Jenner. He's literally a top 10 guy league wide in faceoffs, and plays a huge impact on a top 5 PK league wide. Why does Wennberg get so much credit for being "so good" defensively and on the PK, yet you continue to downplay Dubinsky. Dubinsky and Jenner take the tougher matchups/top units OVER WENNBERG EVERY TIME. That WILL affect your dumb "statistics", but will show nowhere.
Um. They do show in statistics, because statistics can also look at those tougher matchups, and correct for their influence. Otherwise, those statistics are pretty useless.

It's as though you formed your opinion on any "advanced stats" (read: above and beyond what you'd find on the back of a trading card) back in 2007 and refuse to reconsider it further.
 

majormajor

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Jun 23, 2018
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He's out there for very few goals for, of course that stat is going to be substantially negative. He's still fine for a fourth line role. If he was making 1 million dollars nobody would complain about him.

That's my defense of Wennberg and Nash, that they don't score but they don't get scored on either, a good thing to have in your bottom six. And I don't complain about players based on contracts. Once they're signed, they're signed.

That's absolutely not the situation with Dubinsky. He's been trending badly in shots/goals against in recent years. Last year his goals against per minute was the equivalent of McDavid and Kucherov's goals for per minute, a rare feat.
 

majormajor

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
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What does it mean? TO ME? Nothing. The same way it mean nothing when you claim these "rates" claim Bobrovsky is as valuable to the CBJ as Tavares would be or is to other teams.



Idk, do you have any "numbers" or "statistics" to back it up? Look at the total TOI numbers. You suspiciously leave Jenner out of all of this.



This "stuff" is bogus claims made by you, based on math problems done on calculators, on random sites I don't know, by people with accounting degrees. Congrats, but you clearly have nothing better to do than post negative comments about Brandon Dubinsky online.

My REASEARCH has been done during the ON ICE season of the CBJ, not looking at decimals on line.

It's a goals against rate. Goals (results) divided by TOI. There's no need for a mathematician here.

If results aren't what you're interested in, then we can stop this discussion now and save ourselves the time.
 

Cyclones Rock

Registered User
Jun 12, 2008
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It's a goals against rate. Goals (results) divided by TOI. There's no need for a mathematician here.

If results aren't what you're interested in, then we can stop this discussion now and save ourselves the time.
I just saw something on hockey reference.com which surprised me:

Brandon Dubinsky NHL Advanced Statistics (Even Strength) | Hockey-Reference.com

ES goals against/60 minutes:

Dubinsky 3.2
Jones 3.3
Atkinson 3.8
Werenski 3.3
Panarin 3.4

I saw others who had less and I had to go to too many screens to make a complete list, but Dubinsky had 79.7% dzone starts.
 

CBJWerenski8

Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
Jun 13, 2009
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That's my defense of Wennberg and Nash, that they don't score but they don't get scored on either, a good thing to have in your bottom six. And I don't complain about players based on contracts. Once they're signed, they're signed.

That's absolutely not the situation with Dubinsky. He's been trending badly in shots/goals against in recent years. Last year his goals against per minute was the equivalent of McDavid and Kucherov's goals for per minute, a rare feat.

As Cyclones said, most of the time Dubi started in the DZ. And a lot of the time he would take the draw, and if he won it, would go immediately to the bench. If he didn't win it he'd be stuck out there. So, that has to contribute negatively to his GF-GA numbers. I think its a bit nit-picky for a fourth line player.
 
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thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
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Maybe the poll should be who plays the most games in a CBJ jersey next year - Dubinsky, Wennberg, or Murray. You’ve got to throw Murray into any “who plays more” polls.

Touche. I'll have to think about it. Cyc get the new poll ready, this 1's a blowout.

Hopefully most of the Dubi buyout talk can stay in here, or now die down for a bit.

These arguments to keep him seem to be we can afford him, he wants to be here and he's a face of the Jackets. Yikes. For him being a Torts player, he sure didn't get a lot of TOI that suggests that Torts loves him.

Hell, keep Wennberg for another year and buyout Dubi. Wennie still qualifies for the 1/3 buyout after next season. He can produce more than Dubi will.

No, the argument is that he fills a few roles on this team and in the organization that we really don't have many other better options for. And that's not to say that he isn't VERY GOOD at the few things he does bring to this team. This 'dragging the team down' narrative is completely bogus.
 

thebus88

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Still yet to understand why a Dubinsky discussion ALWAYS turns into a Wennberg discussion.

Why does a thread "ALWAYS" turn into a buyout Dubinsky or fire Torts thread?

Its almost like Dubi and Wennberg are 2 guys fighting for the same 2 spots on the ice along with being the 2 most popular buyout candidates around here on HF, no?
 

thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
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You're constant defense of Dubinsky is no better than my over hyping of Wennberg. At least I can admit when I'm wrong.

And at least with Wennberg there's still a chance he rebounds and is a 30-50pt player when used right. And while that may not be in Columbus, his WHC performance has shown he can still compete and keep up with some of the best players in the world.

Can you say the same for Dubinsky??

With Dubinsky, it's all downhill from here. He's not getting better and it's just a matter of how long can he keep playing without being a total liability on the ice. He's a gritty warrior on the ice but the years have not been kind to him. It's the nature of his style of play that's wearing his body down and he's already far beyond his prime..

Nobody is saying Dubinsky doesn't mean a great deal to the organization, he was a major piece in helping transition away from the country club atmosphere, but he's walking a fine line of usefulness and being a overpaid liability on the ice.

What am I wrong about? Who's the better player right now? And by better, I mean who helps the CBJ WIN games more? Not what they maybe-possibly-could do.

So all Wennberg has going for him is age? Or as you would say, potential? Dubinsky is a more impactful player NOW and its not even a question when he was Wennberg's age and a little older or really 3 years ago. I don't care about points, we have other players that can put up points. Wennberg cant get his secondary assists anymore. "Used right". HA. And you bring up Wennberg's World Championships but guys keep ignoring Dubi's series against Tampa. You know the ACTUAL "best players in the world". He's not 35, and there obviously was some sort of issue with him taking his fitness 100%. The CBJ team and Dubi himself have a lot to prove next year.

Dragging the team down to 4 PLAYOFF YEARS IN A ROW!!!

Give Dubi the 'A' back and bring Boomer back!!
 

thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
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I just saw something on hockey reference.com which surprised me:

Brandon Dubinsky NHL Advanced Statistics (Even Strength) | Hockey-Reference.com

ES goals against/60 minutes:

Dubinsky 3.2
Jones 3.3
Atkinson 3.8
Werenski 3.3
Panarin 3.4

I saw others who had less and I had to go to too many screens to make a complete list, but Dubinsky had 79.7% dzone starts.

:huh: :skeptic: :squint: :whaaa?:

Oh, well, its almost as if some people are attempting to pass off certain bogus "statistics" as facts, to then claim a certain narrative, when in fact if you look at the bogus "statistics" they actually show how MISREPRESENTED these statistics and narrative are actually being expressed when looking at the team in general/other players.
 

thebus88

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[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

thebus88

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- You talk about usage without ever comparing Dubi to players in similar usage. You might be surprised, not all of them are getting scored on every third shift.

- Dubi was back down to five minutes a night after the great Riley Nash was injured (I say "great" facetiously but he was actually carrying Dubi). A year ago in the playoffs Dubi didn't get any full shifts, it was faceoff and off.

So actually looking at his minutes, how long are his shifts if he's getting scored on every 3rd shift? Also, Dubi was "back down to 5 minutes" for ONLY the very last game of the year, down multiple goals. The only other time was on Jan 8th. 6 games all year of under 8 minutes. Played quite a bit (13-14 min) down the stretch when the team needed AND DID win.

THIS YEAR in the playoffs he played under 10 minutes only that single last game. Played VERY WELL against TB and look at his TOI numbers the 1st 3 games against BOS where the scores were close and the CBJ actually led 2-1.


For him being a Torts player, he sure didn't get a lot of TOI that suggests that Torts loves him.

Looking at the ACTUAL NUMBERS, he didn't get as little minutes as some like to claim.

Watching the ACTUAL PLAY, he didn't play as bad as some like to claim.
 

thebus88

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With Dubinsky, it's all downhill from here. He's not getting better and it's just a matter of how long can he keep playing without being a total liability on the ice. He's a gritty warrior on the ice but the years have not been kind to him. It's the nature of his style of play that's wearing his body down and he's already far beyond his prime..

Well there is 1 thing I find interesting that nobody has brought up yet. Could possibly "aide" both sides of the argument.

https://nypost.com/2018/01/24/ex-ranger-sent-home-from-vegas-over-hazy-ongoing-issue/

Interesting, ironic, and relevant quote in there also.

His agent denied Dubinsky was sent home for disciplinary reasons and said his career was not threatened by his off-ice actions..... “He was sent home for medical diagnosis,” agent Kurt Overhardt said. “He’s had several injuries this season. The club and my client decided that this was best.”

Maybe his seemingly quickened decline isnt as "natural" as some suspect. Maybe with 1-2+ years of renewed commitment he can get back to being where he was a few years ago. Its clear his main problem did seem to be literal quickness/agility/fitness.

Also, why do some guys get the concussion excuse, while the Kassian punch is completely ignored? Think there was no concussion there? Just a measly broken eye socket?
 

Speedy Sanderson

Registered User
Jan 29, 2012
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I don't think Dubi gets bought out...can still take faceoffs, kill penalties, and provide veteran presence on a young team. Maybe he gets bought out after next season.

However, I do think Dubi is a candidate for a trade. Perhaps a cap floor team that would send a slightly less awful contract back to the CBJ in return.
 

JohnnyJacket13

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I don't think Dubi gets bought out...can still take faceoffs, kill penalties, and provide veteran presence on a young team. Maybe he gets bought out after next season.

However, I do think Dubi is a candidate for a trade. Perhaps a cap floor team that would send a slightly less awful contract back to the CBJ in return.

I don't think we're in a position to trade any more futures or prospects to unload Dubinsky's contract
 

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