Does Carolina need a shakeup? What kind of shakeup?

[Critical13]

Where I am sitting, I guess I see it as a rare opportunity rather than desperation.

Not a lot of teams have an asset like that available to spare.

But you're right - they can afford to wait for the right deal if one comes along.

It's not as if young stellar defencemen grow on trees either.

I'm not sold we can spare him. I look at our winger situation and even with the emergence of Kapanen, it's a bit grim.

Marner/Nylander/Kap is a great top 3. After that, though....Brown/Marleau/Hyman/Ennis/Leivo....dark times! Take Nylander away and all of a sudden you only have two wingers who should realistically be on your top two lines.

 

[jonlin]

Their defense is/will be good/great. Their goaltending suck ass. They have one 1-liner in Aho. TT is at most a 2nd liner and Ferland 2/3. They are very thin upfront and thats why their PP suck. They have a fast run-n-gun team, but they wont win a lot outshooting opponents if they dont have the talent to bury pucks.

 

[NyQuil]

Marner/Nylander/Kap is a great top 3. After that, though....Brown/Marleau/Hyman/Ennis/Leivo....dark times! Take Nylander away and all of a sudden you only have two wingers who should realistically be on your top two lines.

I suppose - but I think it's pretty rare to have 6 top 6 players, and I wonder if it's the best use of your resources.

We shall see!

As for Carolina, I don't think they're quite in the competitive window yet so it's a bit early to go overboard with the diagnoses and solutions IMO.

 

[ShelbyZ]

I'd say invent a time machine so they can go back and sign Halak instead of Mrazek...

 

[Mickey Marner]

They have awful goaltending and poor finishing, same as last year and the year before...

Their consistently strong corsi numbers are partially a reflection of this. A goal against begets no further shot attempts and a shot attempt that doesn't go in might. Or, more simply, high PDO deflates corsi, low PDO inflates corsi.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

They lack talent upfront. It's not just "finishing", they don't have the overall vision or hands to generate decent chances to finish in the first place. And the goalies blow.

Peters compensated with rigid adherence to structural hockey. Brind'amour compensates by throwing everything at the net and hoping for pinballs, rebounds, tips and just fluke 1/1000 spot shots.

Their consistently strong corsi numbers are partially a reflection of this. A goal against begets no further shot attempts and a shot attempt that doesn't go in might.

Corsi is an extremely flawed stat, but goals are rare enough that they shouldn't make a difference in this way.

 

[Tryamw]

Right now we need a center... Minor deal (3rd / 4th liner) Rask going down even as bad as he was last year he'd be an improvement over what we've had. Nylander would just be a waste of more valuable pieces.. (atm)

 

[BleedBlue14]

LA won 2 Cups doing that.

I’m not saying it’s a bad strategy. Especially with how hard Carolina pressures the d men. I’m saying that it flaws stats like Corsi as it’s a systematic style not a ridiculous ability to create shots by Carolinas players

 

[NyQuil]

They lack talent upfront. It's not just "finishing", they don't have the overall vision or hands to generate decent chances to finish in the first place.

This.

By "finishing" what you really mean is "talent" or "high-end skill".

I'm not trying to be obtuse - Ottawa's lacks "finishers" too and by that I mean we only have a few forwards with high end skill.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The FO gambled on Necas and Svechnikov, in particular, being impact rookies. They're not and the result is a downgraded offense relative to last season.

There's not much that can be done aside from being patient. The pathway forward is their development. The quality forwards they need are likely not coming from outside the organization.

 

[JCLA]

Shot quality isn't reflected in shot quantity. We've seen that with the Flames a lot, last year and this year. If you possess the puck a ton and allow only a few chances, and if those chances always come off turnovers and breakdowns that lead to odd-man rushes, it doesn't matter whether that cross-crease tap-in is the 3rd shot on net or the 33rd shot on net, it's probably going to be in the back of your net.

Like, take last night's game. Turnover leads to a cross-crease tap-in. In that moment, it doesn't matter who was carrying play or who was outCorsiing the other team. If you give up that chance, you will get scored on more often than not (the Blues players also made a great play, so credit where credit is due). Second goal, a 3-on-2 inexplicably turns into a 2-on-1 which turns into a breakaway. If you give up that chance, it doesn't matter who has made the most unblocked shot attempts in the last five minutes, you're probably getting scored on.

Blaming the goalie is just lazy analysis. Stop giving up the chances that eliminate your goalie from being a factor in the game, and success will follow. The Flames finally learned that lesson recently (for now). Hopefully the Canes can soon, too.

This is true. Problem being is sometimes you need a goalie to bail you out and that just doesn't happen often for the canes. For example. The canes are on the right side of league average when it comes to high danger chances against at 13th; however, their goaltending has the 5th worst high danger chance against save percentage.

edit: somebody stated this above, didn't read rest of thread before responding.. apologies

 

[Anglesmith]

I don't think that you can say it's lazy analysis - the Canes have the 5th worse sv% on HDCA. There's no question that they need to get more saves on high danger chances, and that means better goaltending. Arizona can attribute much of it's success to Raanta having the 8th best HDSV% while the team is sitting 23rd in HDCA.

Carolina on the other hand is sitting 14th in HDCA but 27th in HDSV%.

These metrics are highly flawed when you look into them, so I have a hard time putting too much stock in them. The best way to evaluate the type of chances a team is giving up is still to watch them play.

 

[Bounces R Way]

They have nearly 20 million dollars currently in cap space. They're spending the least amount of money on their roster in the league. In a hard cap league with the kind of parity the NHL has right now it's incredibly hard to try to "Moneypuck" your way to success. I actually think it's a fairly respectable lineup considering it's cost.

Still, they're highest paid player is Jordan Staal, they have some talented youth but they ought to think about bringing in a couple solid vets who can show them the way like they have with Williams. Maybe that was part of the reason Brind'Amour was brought in. As far as a shakeup goes unless it's trading one of their young D and maybe another young piece for a bonafide 1C I wouldn't bother.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Hurricanes Penalty Kill (4v5)
Shots Against per 60: first (as in, the best) in the League
Sv%: 70.83% (last)
Goals Against Per 60: 30th
Scoring Chance Against Per 60 on the PK: first
Scoring Chance Against Sv%: 58.06% (last)
Scoring Chance Goals Against per 60: Last
High Danger Scoring Chance Against per 60: 13th
High Danger Scoring Chance Sv%: 57.89% (last)
High Danger Goals Against Per 60: 28th

Based on this and the eyetest- the Hurricanes are really good at preventing zone entry and clean setups. But if the other team gets setup, they'll likely get a good chance (though 13th in the League is a bit above average), but can expect no help from the goaltending to make a difficult save.

This year, compared to last, the penalty killers have been better about allowing scoring chances (46.32/7th in 17-18 vs. 35.18/1st in 18-19) and high danger scoring chances against (23.76/23rd vs 19.12/13th), but the difference is in the 20 percentage drop in scoring chance save percentage (78%, 27th vs 58%) and the minor drop in high danger save percentage (66%, still last vs 58%). But that's due to their ability to limit scoring chances, hence high dangers one take up a greater percentage.

Hurricanes 5v5

SAper60: 23.67 (first)
Sv%: .912 (20th)
GAper60: 2.08 (7th)
SCAper60: 10th
SCSv%: 84.97 (21st)
SCGAper60: 17th
HDSCAper60: 12th
HDSv%:78.16 (27th)
HDGAper60: 25th

The Hurricanes haven't scored an ES goal in the last 7 periods of play, indicative of their bottom 5 forward talent. To compensate, Brind'amour is have them throw everything at the net.

They're playing the game like Jeff Skinner. They'll see hot streaks and cold streaks. We're on a cold streak, so the fans are frustrated about scoring- but make no mistake the problem is goaltending.

 

[raymond23]

JIMMY f***ING HOWARD

 

[Thrasymachus]

But Halak is now playing lights out and so is Lehner?

Our goalie coaches last year were sacked. Weight + goalie coaches led to both our goalies under-performing, as evidenced by Greiss' dramatic improvement this season as well.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Rhymes with

 

[Critical13]

These metrics are highly flawed when you look into them, so I have a hard time putting too much stock in them. The best way to evaluate the type of chances a team is giving up is still to watch them play.

I've watched them play and I still think goaltending is an issue. The eye test matches the stats. They obviously lack offensive talent as well.

 

[GoCanes2015]

If there was a rating/stat for bad passing and missed finishes CAR would be #1 in a bad way. Goes to the "no real top line" issue - as a team they seem unconnected on most plays. Passes out of reach, to open spots, not received well, you name it. I saw this in the prior years as well. Collectively they just aren't a good puck handling/passing team, and this implicates everything (rushes, exiting D-Zone, Power Play, etc.) - they need some long practice sessions on the basics.

 

[tellermine]

They are still building.
No need for shaking.

Goalie and nro. 1. center.

 

[Mobiandi]

Their goalies are usually good for 1-2 softies a game based on the highlights I watch.

I also wonder why they traded Skinner for a bag of pucks. Obviously he vetoed a lot of trades but I would've just held on to him if that was the best return out there. Their best bet is Nylander who probably has one foot out the door, already

 

[DaveG]

We lack scorers and traded away our best scorer for f***ing peanuts because "culture change".

 

[pettersson]

They need Nylander

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Only a matter of time till Nylander is there

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Their team save percentage is under 88%.

For those who say that Carolina is an example of why Corsi is meaningless because they just “throw everything at the net”, they have the 2nd highest 5V5 high danger chances for percentage in the NHL this year, and they had the 4th highest last year.