HF Habs: Does anyone here think Bergevin truly has a plan to fix this team?

Is there a plan?


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pepperMonkey

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
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Toronto
The fact of the matter is that even when the Habs are winning Max is rarely a root cause of it. I can't recall many games in which Max was the reason we won it or lost it. Mostly he's a non-factor despite his offensive output.

Err...I've been advocating the trade of Patches for a while, and I certainly haven't been defending him specially in the playoffs...but Patches have been one of the top, if not THE top player with game winning goals in the league for a while now (excluding this year). Sure, he may have a tendency to disappear in big games but to say he is a non-factor for us winning is not really true.
 

Vachon23

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Oct 14, 2015
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Victoriaville
My plan

1) Fire Lefebvre, Carriere and son and all of the assistants (Carriere Son, Dufresne etc...) in Laval. Bring in Joel Bouchard and Domenic Duchesne. One playoff appearance in 6 years? I'll give them credit for Scherbak and Hudon but the rest of the guys that they are "developing" ..... look at the Canadiens record, Rocket's record...

2) Fire all of the assistants in Montreal. Not good enough, let Claude bring in his guys because he won't make it through another year if they suck this badly next year.
Hire Paul Fenton or Fill in the Blank as an Assistant GM, get rid of Useless Carriere and Clueless Dudles. Time to light a match under Bergevin. I am being generous becaue I would fire him on the last day of the season.

3) Fire Shayne Churla. He isn't getting it done. McCarron, Koberstein, Straum, Henriksson, Vejedemo, De La Rose etc... He drafts for mediocrity, De La Rose is a 4th line center. Put Timmins back in charge of amateur scouting.

This is a total collapse, they won't make the playoffs for the next 5 years.

Fenton will not go from Nashville for the same job in MTL and for the assistants I would keep Muller and Waite but for the others things I agree 100%
 

Runner77

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My plan

1) Fire Lefebvre, Carriere and son and all of the assistants (Carriere Son, Dufresne etc...) in Laval. Bring in Joel Bouchard and Domenic Duchesne. One playoff appearance in 6 years? I'll give them credit for Scherbak and Hudon but the rest of the guys that they are "developing" ..... look at the Canadiens record, Rocket's record...

2) Fire all of the assistants in Montreal. Not good enough, let Claude bring in his guys because he won't make it through another year if they suck this badly next year.
Hire Paul Fenton or Fill in the Blank as an Assistant GM, get rid of Useless Carriere and Clueless Dudles. Time to light a match under Bergevin. I am being generous becaue I would fire him on the last day of the season.

3) Fire Shayne Churla. He isn't getting it done. McCarron, Koberstein, Straum, Henriksson, Vejedemo, De La Rose etc... He drafts for mediocrity, De La Rose is a 4th line center. Put Timmins back in charge of amateur scouting.

This is a total collapse, they won't make the playoffs for the next 5 years.

The beauty of all the moves you suggest -- they are reasonable and in some cases, long overdue.

Now, not everyone knows exactly what Shane Churla is doing vs. Timmins and whoever else they've sandwiched within the scouting dept. How big is Churla's role vs. Timmins, how does it differ? Is Timmins filling greater administrative functions and is less involved with scouting?
 

Vachon23

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Oct 14, 2015
17,971
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Victoriaville
I hope they don't fired Carriere to replace him by Martin Lapointe but i'm scared that this maybe the plan. For Churla I would replace him by Raphael Pouliot ! his work with the Huskies was incredible and he is young !
 

Shabs

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Nov 16, 2017
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This is from an article in the gazette last October:

“During the last three seasons, Pacioretty scored 102 goals. Sixty-four of them were assisted by Andrei Markov (30), P.K. Subban (25) or Nathan Beaulieu (9), who are no longer with the team. Subban and Markov provided both assists on four of those 64 goals, so we can lower the number of goals assisted by former defencemen to 60, or a stunning 59 per cent.”

Before chara tried to take max’s Head off, I really thought that he was on a trajectory to be a guy who could carry and create scoring chances all by himself. He was flying and he was fearless. When he came back, I don’t think he was the same player.

When he came back, he still had that unbelievable shot - watch him in warmup take shots - his shot is noticeably harder than everyone else on the team. It’s crazy. But he didn’t (or very rarely) used his body to create scoring chances. He relied on others to get him the puck.

I would like to compare the stats from before the chara injury to after. Including looking at the assists, how many and who he was getting them from.

Edit: the point of the gazette article was that max got a lot of goals getting outlet passes from the d and flying through the neutral zone. But now, we have no PMDs.
 
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G0bias

Registered User
Oct 4, 2007
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MTL
Barring an off season of godly proportions I'd strongly consider seeing whats out there for both price and weber and actually keeping pacioretty.
What would be the point of keeping Pacioretty in this scenario? I think in any scenario he won't be worth his next contract but that's a different matter.
 

Rapala

Registered User
Mar 29, 2013
38,401
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Montreal
1) You didn't question the methods, you said that you'd toss them as useless because they didn't conform to your eye test. That's questioning the results and not even looking into methodology. And its worse, because its an admission of confirmation bias, which basically renders any statistical analysis worthless.

2) This team does a number of things well. It does more things poorly. Which is why they suck. Drawing the conclusion that a team being bad=they do everything bad is crazy.

This is where I got off the bus I don't see this team doing well anywhere IMO.
I remember someone posted a positioning heatmap detailing our shot locations.
I couldn't stomach that one either. It didn't take into consideration the type or quality of shots being taken and didn't justify the claim being made that we were a possession team. So my original view stands the stats are useless and need to be refined.
 
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OldCraig71

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Feb 2, 2009
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This is from an article in the gazette last October:

“During the last three seasons, Pacioretty scored 102 goals. Sixty-four of them were assisted by Andrei Markov (30), P.K. Subban (25) or Nathan Beaulieu (9), who are no longer with the team. Subban and Markov provided both assists on four of those 64 goals, so we can lower the number of goals assisted by former defencemen to 60, or a stunning 59 per cent.”

Before chara tried to take max’s Head off, I really thought that he was on a trajectory to be a guy who could carry and create scoring chances all by himself. He was flying and he was fearless. When he came back, I don’t think he was the same player.

When he came back, he still had that unbelievable shot - watch him in warmup take shots - his shot is noticeably harder than everyone else on the team. It’s crazy. But he didn’t (or very rarely) used his body to create scoring chances. He relied on others to get him the puck.

I would like to compare the stats from before the chara injury to after. Including looking at the assists, how many and who he was getting them from.

Edit: the point of the gazette article was that max got a lot of goals getting outlet passes from the d and flying through the neutral zone. But now, we have no PMDs.

I said the same thing before the season started and I said that because of the absence of a credible pmd that Pacioretty would struggle to score 20 goals, his game is completely based on this, same as Byron.
 
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SakuKoivu11

Registered User
Jun 29, 2017
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Marc Bergervin has failed as the GM

Here’s why:

Karl Alzner $4.7 mil per yr 5 years total
Jordie Benn
David Schlemko
Ales Hemsky
Mark Streit

All these moves except for the obvious trade Drouin for Sergachev. All the moves above have been failed. It’s very rare to see a GM making moves and all his moves failed. I do not trust this guy at all. He doesn’t like he knows what he’s doing.

Letting Markov walk, letting Radulov go.

Omg
What a terrible GM.
 

LyricalLyricist

Registered User
Aug 21, 2007
37,909
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Montreal
I think if you are moving Price and Weber you are hitting reset. So naturally sending Pacioretty on his way is needed too. He has one year left why would he resign with a team is in full rebuild?

What would be the point of keeping Pacioretty in this scenario? I think in any scenario he won't be worth his next contract but that's a different matter.

I think Max is loyal enough to stay. Like I think it bothers him that he's captain and that we're not successful.

Pacioretty is 27, even in a 5 year rebuild he's still a useful vet at 32. Price and weber are done if we're going the lengthy patient approach. We'd have to see his asking price however.

Price's injuries don't help either, neither does that cap.

Weber is 32 currently. Even if we assume injuries won't reoccur he's signed for 8 more seasons. If he retires early it affects Nashville more than it will ever affect us but regardless he makes 7.857 on the cap those 8 years. In reality he only makes 3.75 mil average salary over those 8 years(vs 7.57*8 in cumulative capspace taken.)

i'm not saying tear it down no matter what but if we're slipping in draft and end up say 7th or so. We get no stastny, no Tavares, no one at center. Why are we delaying the inevitable? if you can't get a C, tear it down instead of waiting forever. Sure, if they get Dahlin i'll reconsider but still...let's be real here. Status quo won't work.
 

G0bias

Registered User
Oct 4, 2007
7,749
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MTL
I think Max is loyal enough to stay. Like I think it bothers him that he's captain and that we're not successful.

Pacioretty is 27, even in a 5 year rebuild he's still a useful vet at 32. Price and weber are done if we're going the lengthy patient approach. We'd have to see his asking price however.

Pacioretty is going to be 30 in November. So going on 35 in 5 years.
 

habsgirl5000

Registered User
Jul 15, 2017
2,678
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but Patches have been one of the top, if not THE top player with game winning goals in the league for a while now (excluding this year)

and Price USED TO BE the best goalie in the league.....it means NOTHING TODAY!!

we all need to quit living in the past.....who cares what patches and price did years ago.....what are they doing for us today?.....not a hell of a lot!
 

BLONG7

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Oct 30, 2002
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and Price USED TO BE the best goalie in the league.....it means NOTHING TODAY!!

we all need to quit living in the past.....who cares what patches and price did years ago.....what are they doing for us today?.....not a hell of a lot!
Same can be said of their GM...it starts at the top............we are doomed with a clown at the top of the pile.
Let's a re-set this summer works...lol
 
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yianik

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Jun 30, 2009
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This is from an article in the gazette last October:

“During the last three seasons, Pacioretty scored 102 goals. Sixty-four of them were assisted by Andrei Markov (30), P.K. Subban (25) or Nathan Beaulieu (9), who are no longer with the team. Subban and Markov provided both assists on four of those 64 goals, so we can lower the number of goals assisted by former defencemen to 60, or a stunning 59 per cent.”

Before chara tried to take max’s Head off, I really thought that he was on a trajectory to be a guy who could carry and create scoring chances all by himself. He was flying and he was fearless. When he came back, I don’t think he was the same player.

When he came back, he still had that unbelievable shot - watch him in warmup take shots - his shot is noticeably harder than everyone else on the team. It’s crazy. But he didn’t (or very rarely) used his body to create scoring chances. He relied on others to get him the puck.

I would like to compare the stats from before the chara injury to after. Including looking at the assists, how many and who he was getting them from.

Edit: the point of the gazette article was that max got a lot of goals getting outlet passes from the d and flying through the neutral zone. But now, we have no PMDs.

After he came back, Patches said on an interview that he watched a lot of hockey and realized the truly elite scorers and long lived ones kept to the perimeter and that was how he was going to play from now on.

Yeah on the PMDs feeding Patches. I wonder when MB cleared them all out, did he realize Patches was so reliant on them ? Numbers are stupid after all. I think the answer to that is he didnt have a clue.
 

Runner77

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This is where I got off the bus I don't see this team doing well anywhere IMO.
I remember someone posted a positioning heatmap detailing our shot locations.
I couldn't stomach that one either. It didn't take into consideration the type or quality of shots being taken and didn't justify the claim being made that we were a possession team. So my original view stands the stats are useless and need to be refined.

You also have personal bias entering the equation in terms how data is mined. What criteria decides whether a shot is of quality or not? Who is recording the data -- is some volunteer being canvassed from every arena or is the information being collected in a manner that that personal bias and discretion don't skew the results. Advanced stats and modern methods have all tried to emulate or evolve from the way sabrmetrics have influenced the way baseball is managed, however, there are major flaws and limitations when you're not dealing with sports where you can easily isolate individual performances like in baseball.

This is why I don't buy everything that comes out of the advanced stats model as applied to hockey and continue to view it with skepticism -- it's a helpful tool but remains an accessory to traditional methods. Even in baseball, you still have eyeball scouts whose input carries significant weight together with sabrmetrics in providing the type of actionable information that clubs depend upon.
 
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LaP

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Jun 27, 2012
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This is why I don't buy everything that comes out of the advanced stats model as applied to hockey and continue to view it with skepticism -- it's a helpful tool but remains an accessory to traditional methods. Even in baseball, you still have eyeball scouts whose input carries significant weight together with sabrmetrics in providing the type of actionable information that clubs depend upon.

It's a useful tool when you know the ins and outs of the advanced stats you'se checking. But some of them are as credible as Richard Glenn and his esoterisme experimental. I mean i take any stats named "les chances de marquer créées du haut de l'enclave après un tir du bas de l'enclave d'une passe effectuée par un gardien qui n'avait plus son gant" with a big **** grain of salt.
 

groovejuice

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Jun 27, 2011
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You also have personal bias entering the equation in terms how data is mined. What criteria decides whether a shot is of quality or not? Who is recording the data -- is some volunteer being canvassed from every arena or is the information being collected in a manner that that personal bias and discretion don't skew the results. Advanced stats and modern methods have all tried to emulate or evolve from the way sabrmetrics have influenced the way baseball is managed, however, there are major flaws and limitations when you're not dealing with sports where you can easily isolate individual performances like in baseball.

This is why I don't buy everything that comes out of the advanced stats model as applied to hockey and continue to view it with skepticism -- it's a helpful tool but remains an accessory to traditional methods. Even in baseball, you still have eyeball scouts whose input carries significant weight together with sabrmetrics in providing the type of actionable information that clubs depend upon.

It's definitely a young science going through growing pains. Fortunately, statistics as a discipline is highly developed, so the challenge, as you say, is to enhance the methodology of data collection for accuracy, repeatability and translation.

Experienced and knowledgeable eyes will always be a valuable component in player evaluation, and that's a good thing.
 
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Grate n Colorful Oz

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Jun 12, 2007
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This is from an article in the gazette last October:

“During the last three seasons, Pacioretty scored 102 goals. Sixty-four of them were assisted by Andrei Markov (30), P.K. Subban (25) or Nathan Beaulieu (9), who are no longer with the team. Subban and Markov provided both assists on four of those 64 goals, so we can lower the number of goals assisted by former defencemen to 60, or a stunning 59 per cent.”

Before chara tried to take max’s Head off, I really thought that he was on a trajectory to be a guy who could carry and create scoring chances all by himself. He was flying and he was fearless. When he came back, I don’t think he was the same player.

When he came back, he still had that unbelievable shot - watch him in warmup take shots - his shot is noticeably harder than everyone else on the team. It’s crazy. But he didn’t (or very rarely) used his body to create scoring chances. He relied on others to get him the puck.

I would like to compare the stats from before the chara injury to after. Including looking at the assists, how many and who he was getting them from.

Edit: the point of the gazette article was that max got a lot of goals getting outlet passes from the d and flying through the neutral zone. But now, we have no PMDs.

Oh ****, that's the part I forgot yesterday when I brought this up, Markov. I said Subban had assists on more than 50% of Pac's goals, but I said it out of memory and had forgot it was with both Markov & Subban and ot was 60% rather than 50.
 

Runner77

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It's a useful tool when you know the ins and outs of the advanced stats you'se checking. But some of them are as credible as Richard Glenn and his esoterisme experimental. I mean i take any stats named "les chances de marquer créées du haut de l'enclave après un tir du bas de l'enclave d'une passe effectuée par un gardien qui n'avait plus son gant" with a big **** grain of salt.

Which tells you that "advanced" stats as applied to a team sport are contentious and do not allow one to derive actionable information in respect of individual performances. They may have use as a supplemental source and if you are an organization that is seeking to own every competitive edge, you still have to mine them and process them. Fact is, even if one organization doesn't value them, you still have clubs that have hired staff and built advanced stat departments and who are using advanced stats in their player procurement decisions.

If you're a team negotiating say a trade with a club heavily invested in advanced stats, you need to be able to speak their language so that you can use it as a persuasive argument -- you need to know how and where the other side places value on its assets if you as a club, have decided to institute an organizational culture that is not heavily reliant on advanced stats, by way of example.
 

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