Dobson or Boqvist ?

kabidjan18

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Apr 20, 2015
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If Boqvist was playing in the Canadian juniors, the Canadian media wouldn’t have him dropping as much as they’ve done so thus far. Same thing they did to Liljegren, and Boqvist has done better this season than Liljegren did in his draft season. I also love how it’s now commonplace to state Boqvist can’t defend because TSN draft expert Button cherry-picked certain shifts where he didn’t like Boqvist’s defensive intensity. Dumb. And the fans don’t push back on how questionable it is. Doesn’t make sense to me.

I have a feeling they are going to be reaching for excuses in a year for the low ranking.
I strongly disagree.

I'm on vacation now so I'm without my main computer, so my developed arguments on this case are not currently available to me. If you do indeed request data, I will be able to get it tomorrow evening earliest.

If Boqvist weren't playing in Sweden, he wouldn't even be remotely in the conversation. The Swedish SuperElit, the only place where Boqvist has been remotely excellent, is roughly the level of the NAHL, perhaps slightly more competitive. You can ask for citations on that.

If Boqvist is clipped the exact same clip in the NAHL, is he even in the lottery conversation? No, he's not. But because he plays in Sweden, there's a greater mysticism around the Swedish league, he generates more interest. When Swedish players are drafted high, they're drafted because of their proven competence at the senior level. Somehow, this has been conflated with an elevated perception of the strength of the Swedish J20 league. It's a false perception. Players are not drafted high exclusively from the SuperElit. I can cite that as well. They're drafted for their competence at the senior level. Liljegren showed great competence over 2 seasons in the SHL. Comparing them is unnecessary because they have nothing in common other than the national anthem they sing after international games.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich

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You do realize he was named best defenseman at the WJC18? He was so good that he won defenseman of the tournament, despite getting injured in the SF's. He was second in points at the Ivan Hlinka. Not points for a defenseman, points for a player at any position. Ridiculous argument you made. Take your time to respond. It won't be a good argument because there isn't a good argument.

The evidence that Button and people like him give is essentially nothing. They can't come up with anything good against Boqvist, but he's the dropper this year to get the Canadians drafted higher. We see this every year, and the excuses will be loaded up within a year when they likely end up being wrong. Button had Glass at 4 last year and Pettersson at 8. How does that prediction look now? Many of us had Pettersson much higher, but he didn't play in the preferred league of the Canadian media, so real arguments took a back seat to league favoritism.
 

Phoicon

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I strongly disagree.

I'm on vacation now so I'm without my main computer, so my developed arguments on this case are not currently available to me. If you do indeed request data, I will be able to get it tomorrow evening earliest.

If Boqvist weren't playing in Sweden, he wouldn't even be remotely in the conversation. The Swedish SuperElit, the only place where Boqvist has been remotely excellent, is roughly the level of the NAHL, perhaps slightly more competitive. You can ask for citations on that.

If Boqvist is clipped the exact same clip in the NAHL, is he even in the lottery conversation? No, he's not. But because he plays in Sweden, there's a greater mysticism around the Swedish league, he generates more interest. When Swedish players are drafted high, they're drafted because of their proven competence at the senior level. Somehow, this has been conflated with an elevated perception of the strength of the Swedish J20 league. It's a false perception. Players are not drafted high exclusively from the SuperElit. I can cite that as well. They're drafted for their competence at the senior level. Liljegren showed great competence over 2 seasons in the SHL. Comparing them is unnecessary because they have nothing in common other than the national anthem they sing after international games.

What am I reading here? Übertalented Swedish elite prospects often play the year before their NHL draft in the SuperElit or get loaned to the Allsvenskan. A direct comparison can be made with Erik Karlsson who had 13+24 = 37 points in the SuperElit in his draft year. There are so many other examples of forwards and defenders.

Adam Boqvist had 14+10 = 24 in 25 games. If he were in the WHL or the OHL he would tear that league apart.

Whether you play in the SuperElit, Allsvenskan or the SHL the year prior is not indicative of your potential as a prospects or the ceiling as an NHL player. Quite often, it´s the more physically mature and/or more two-way players like N. Lundkvist or I. Lündeström this year or L. Andersson the previous year that SHL coaches can trust to play their very intricate systems and keep up with strict practice/game/post-game discipline.

Other times your performance as a 17-year-old in the SHL is just dependent on random factors - whether there is an opening for you that lets you play your natural way, whether the coaching staff wants to take their time with you etc.. mostly it is more indicative of the team and its system.

Hopefully, this settles it and we don´t have to rely upon imaginary comparisons between leagues. Kind of embarrassing really.
 

kabidjan18

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What am I reading here? Übertalented Swedish elite prospects often play the year before their NHL draft in the SuperElit or get loaned to the Allsvenskan. A direct comparison can be made with Erik Karlsson who had 13+24 = 37 points in the SuperElit in his draft year. There are so many other examples of forwards and defenders.

Adam Boqvist had 14+10 = 24 in 25 games. If he were in the WHL or the OHL he would tear that league apart.

Whether you play in the SuperElit, Allsvenskan or the SHL the year prior is not indicative of your potential as a prospects or the ceiling as an NHL player. Quite often, it´s the more physically mature and/or more two-way players like N. Lundkvist or I. Lündeström this year or L. Andersson the previous year that SHL coaches can trust to play their very intricate systems and keep up with strict practice/game/post-game discipline.

Other times your performance as a 17-year-old in the SHL is just dependent on random factors - whether there is an opening for you that lets you play your natural way, whether the coaching staff wants to take their time with you etc.. mostly it is more indicative of the team and its system.

Hopefully, this settles it and we don´t have to rely upon imaginary comparisons between leagues. Kind of embarrassing really.
What's embarrassing is the paint by the sole exception attitude that has completely seized the Swedish crowd. Every Swedish defenseman now is the next Erik Karlsson, and if they have better stats than Karlsson did then they are Karlsson++. The kind of logic, every HS player then after Blake Wheeler must then be the next Blake Wheeler.

Karlsson was drafted 15th, not 1st, because what he had proven to that point warranted 15th. What of Adam Almquist or Ludvig Bystrom, or Robert Hagg, or Oliver Kylington, or Sebastian Aho, or Jesper Lindgren or basically every other Swedish athlete who played well in the J20 and did not become Erik Karlsson? And did every athlete who clipped higher than Brent Burns in the CHL become Brent Burns?

You assert that if he were in the CHL, he'd be tearing that up too. Such a statement requires evidence. It could be true, it could not be, but when you throw a claim out there like that with no evidence, any and all derision should be directed at yourself.
 

57special

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Boqvist still has far better skill and a quicker mind for the game. Would take him over Dobson. Main thing is Dobson still has lots of problems defensively, more concerned about that part of his game than Boqvist's. Concussions are concerning, of course, but younger players can rebound from them better as their brains as still plastic.
Boqvist is better defensively than Dobson? I thought that was Boqvist's weakness?
 

Frk It

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You do realize he was named best defenseman at the WJC18? He was so good that he won defenseman of the tournament, despite getting injured in the SF's. He was second in points at the Ivan Hlinka. Not points for a defenseman, points for a player at any position. Ridiculous argument you made. Take your time to respond. It won't be a good argument because there isn't a good argument.

The evidence that Button and people like him give is essentially nothing. They can't come up with anything good against Boqvist, but he's the dropper this year to get the Canadians drafted higher. We see this every year, and the excuses will be loaded up within a year when they likely end up being wrong. Button had Glass at 4 last year and Pettersson at 8. How does that prediction look now? Many of us had Pettersson much higher, but he didn't play in the preferred league of the Canadian media, so real arguments took a back seat to league favoritism.

I am pretty the 2 concussions have factored into him dropping more than anything else.

Also way too soon to comment on Glass and Petterson.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
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Bouchard, I'm not sold on, but he could turn into a Brent Burns type player, but he could also turn into someone like Cody Franson. Realistically, I think he's a different type of guy you put on your middle pairing and excels in offensive situations due to his passing and shot, whereas Boqvist and Hughes are more offensive due to their skating (along with IQ and in Boqvist's case shot).

Franson's skating was WAY worse at the same age. Otherwise I agree, my fear with Bouchard is he maxes out as a PP specialist in the NHL and can't log big minutes and be trusted in all situations.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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I am pretty the 2 concussions have factored into him dropping more than anything else.

Also way too soon to comment on Glass and Petterson.

Are the two concussions confirmed? I've yet to see it confirmed. Seems to be speculation more than anything.

And by the same token, why should idle speculation be held against him? There was a person who had it on good authority that Svechnikov was older than he claimed. Should we also consider that?
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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No, because he's bad at it
No, because he's not strong in his own end; both using the eye test and any reports of his game.

If he had a strong defensive game he'd be top 3 no question.

I think these are lazy opinions, but thats only my take.

I hope the management of both your teams picks what I consider to be inferior hockey players at 3 and 4 because it helps the chance that Boqvist and his serious defensive issues will be on the board at 9.
 

BondraTime

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I think these are lazy opinions, but thats only my take.

I hope the management of both your teams picks what I consider to be inferior hockey players at 3 and 4 because it helps the chance that Boqvist and his serious defensive issues will be on the board at 9.
So do I, I hope the management of whatever team you cheer for goes with your thoughts as well.

When Bob's list comes out on the 17th and Boqvist is 10th or not on it at all, you can berate him as a moron as well
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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McKenzie doesn't give his own opinion, thats an aggregate of scouts rankings.

I don't think NHL teams are so bright either when it comes to drafting. How did Elias Petterson go 5th? I had him 1st since before the WJC of his draft season and then all the way throughout from there. Seems like I got that one right. Not that I'm any genius, everyone has gaffes, but it does seem like European players often get underrated comparatively to their production and skill-set when they don't play in the correct league.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Are the two concussions confirmed? I've yet to see it confirmed. Seems to be speculation more than anything.

And by the same token, why should idle speculation be held against him? There was a person who had it on good authority that Svechnikov was older than he claimed. Should we also consider that?

Not even remotely comparable to that trash Svechnikov rumor.

Mark Edwards said as much over in the hockeyprospect.com thread:

Boqvist took a long time to rank. It was tight right from the 3-11 (especially 3-8 area) in the end I always tell our guys to imagine yourself on the draft floor with with a mortgage, a family to feed and one year left on your NHL team contract. I find that makes ranking the players a bit more real. Now attaching your name to the guy with two concussions, who's in a tight battle with other high end players gets more difficult to pull the trigger.
 
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BondraTime

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McKenzie doesn't give his own opinion, thats an aggregate of scouts rankings.

I don't think NHL teams are so bright either when it comes to drafting. How did Elias Petterson go 5th? I had him 1st since before the WJC of his draft season and then all the way throughout from there. Seems like I got that one right. Not that I'm any genius, everyone has gaffes, but it does seem like European players often get underrated comparatively to their production and skill-set when they don't play in the correct league.
Well, as long as you got Petterson right I'll take your word
 
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VictorLustig

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Feb 8, 2012
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I strongly disagree.

I'm on vacation now so I'm without my main computer, so my developed arguments on this case are not currently available to me. If you do indeed request data, I will be able to get it tomorrow evening earliest.

If Boqvist weren't playing in Sweden, he wouldn't even be remotely in the conversation. The Swedish SuperElit, the only place where Boqvist has been remotely excellent, is roughly the level of the NAHL, perhaps slightly more competitive. You can ask for citations on that.

If Boqvist is clipped the exact same clip in the NAHL, is he even in the lottery conversation? No, he's not. But because he plays in Sweden, there's a greater mysticism around the Swedish league, he generates more interest. When Swedish players are drafted high, they're drafted because of their proven competence at the senior level. Somehow, this has been conflated with an elevated perception of the strength of the Swedish J20 league. It's a false perception. Players are not drafted high exclusively from the SuperElit. I can cite that as well. They're drafted for their competence at the senior level. Liljegren showed great competence over 2 seasons in the SHL. Comparing them is unnecessary because they have nothing in common other than the national anthem they sing after international games.

"Mysticism" around J20...Are you saying that because you don't know much about the league?

Around 15-20 guys are drafted from that league every year, only 3 guys from the NAHL last year. Only 14 from the QMJHL last year. J20 is a heavily scouted league and the top guys get a ton of exposure playing in international tournaments. Last year you saw Liljegren and Brännström get drafted high, they only got shifts in the SHL here and there. Erik Karlsson played his full draft season in J20, Anze Kopitar too, I can go on.

It also depends entirely on what organization you play for, Elias Lindholm and Nicklas Bäckström only got a few games in the SHL in their U18 year, they also played in Brynäs and were both drafted top 5.
 
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Vancouver Canucks

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I would choose Noah Dobson over Adam Boqvist, because the former has a knack for scoring from the blueline, whereas, the latter is more of a passer. If you watch Youtube videos on Dobson, you'll see how he stays in the blueline or gets close to the hash marks before unleashing his shots that lead to goals.
 

kabidjan18

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"Mysticism" around J20...Are you saying that because you don't know much about the league?

Around 15-20 guys are drafted from that league every year, only 3 guys from the NAHL last year. Only 14 from the QMJHL last year. J20 is a heavily scouted league and the top guys get a ton of exposure playing in international tournaments. Last year you saw Liljegren and Brännström get drafted high, they only got shifts in the SHL here and there. Erik Karlsson played his full draft season in J20, Anze Kopitar too, I can go on.

It also depends entirely on what organization you play for, Elias Lindholm and Nicklas Bäckström only got a few games in the SHL in their U18 year, they also played in Brynäs and were both drafted top 5.
You guys are pretty comical :laugh:

I know as much as I need to know about the league. First, let's address your argument. Last year 24 Swedish skaters were drafted out of Sweden. A whopping 4 (Peterson, Lycksell, Walterholm, Andersson) of them were drafted exclusively from the J20, none earlier than the fifth round. 20 of them have some, and mostly significant amounts of, senior experience and exposure. The year before it was 6 out of 21. In 2015, there was only 1 (6'7" 7th rounder Gustav Olhaver), out of 14 picks.

The fact that you can be snarky in an edgy teen way doesn't compensate for bad science. Erik Karlsson did not play his full draft season in the J20. Neither did Anze Kopitar. Good science is isolating variables and determining causes and effects. Bad science, what you're doing, is intentionally ignoring evidence because it doesn't suit your narrative. Kopitar played 15 games at the senior level in his draft season. Karlsson played 13. If a given object has multiple vectors that could be affecting its movement, you cannot simply attribute all the forces to whichever vector you like the most. That is silly, and stupid. There are multiple variables present at multiple levels of analysis, simply ignoring evidence you don't like and then re-screeching a conclusion is silliness.

Furthermore, I could even give your atrocious reasoning, allow you to dismiss all relevant and pertinent but undesirable evidence, and it still would not vindicate you argument. Plenty of athletes come from non-traditional backgrounds. Simply citing that some individuals come from non-traditional backgrounds, doesn't vindicate the argument that those backgrounds should be considered traditional.

Let's consider another piece of evidence, based not on draft position but outcome. There have been 24 Swedish athletes since the 2009 draft to score 100 points or more. Only one John Klingberg in 2010, was drafted without at least 10 games of senior experience. In the last 5 drafts there have been 4 individuals (Bratt, Eriksson Ek, Kempe, Janmark) not including individuals already incorporated with 20 points or more. All of them had over 10 games, in fact, all of them had over 30 games at the senior level at the point they were drafted. So, even if teams had been drafting athletes exclusively performing in the SuperElit, which they generally aren't, there is no recent evidence that this would be effective to any genuine extent. Athletes who have been successful have had significant amounts of senior experience, and if they had both extensive amounts of senior experience and success at the junior levels, it is (again) irresponsible to attribute such successes merely to the latter variable.

Here's some evidence I previously compiled which I promised.
The last time a Swedish Defenseman was taken out of Sweden in the top 3 rounds without having played senior hockey (thus, having only played in the SuperElit), was Carl Dahlstrom in 2013 at 51st. The last time before that was in 2000, Mattias Nilsson was taken in the 3rd round with the 72nd pick. That's top three rounds, what about the first round? The last time, and only time in the history of the draft, a Swedish Defenseman has been taken in the top round of the Draft without having played senior hockey was Christian Backman in 1998 at 24th.
NHL teams simply don't put stock in an defensemen who have only played in the SuperElit, and not shown some competence at the senior level, just like they don't usually draft NAHL athletes very high. Now, Boqvist has played at the senior level. He's shown some, questionable, level of competence there. That should be no issue, however, structurally.

But you can't make an apples to apples comparison that so and so has dominated in the QMJHL and so and so was just as dominant in the SuperElit. What should be the most telling pieces of evidence on Boqvist, for better or worse, is his performance in the SHL and Allsvenskan.

Now the evidence for the SuperElit/NAHL comparison.
Expats from Sweden's SuperElit to the NAHL. Organized by the season they joined. Increase means they saw in increase in their scoring, because of course who wouldn't just score like crazy in a bush league right? Push is for an increase less than a quarter point per game, which is a very standard increase for a junior. Decrease means they actually scored more in the SuperElit as a younger player than they did in the NAHL one year older. Sorted by year, but some players who played multiple seasons will not be listed twice.
2017
Increase: Palmqvist, Garcia, Jigemark
Push: Bjorkman
Decrease: Frisell, Moberg, Karlsson, Sandberg, Johansson
2016
Increase: Eriksson, Stenlund
Push: Loof, Esjbors, Nylander
Decrease: Warman, Maier, Liljekvist
2015
Increase: Gabor, Strisberg, Andren, Sjodahl, Celec
Push: Lundgren, Karlstrom, Sundberg
Decrease: Winborg, Rygaard, Mellberg, Ostling
2014
Increase: Emanuelsson, Pettersson, Ohrvall, Larsson,
Push: Synnelius, Kullberg, Ingman, Erb Ekholm, Ehlers, Santesson
Decrease: Lindell, Odd, Brun, Karlsson, Berglund, Vidmar, Bjorklund, Athley, Sorgardt, Soje, Nilsson

Not to mention SuperElit alumni like Klingberg, Stromberg, Wellen, Hansson, Frolander and others who couldn't be evaluated because they got cut from NAHL teams so fast.

It's hard to consistently document non-swedes, but for example Ondrej Zehnal, Czech, went from the SuperElit to the NAHL. His ppg dropped too. Interesting. And he had played and lived in the US as a child. His brother Richard made the same move, and saw an increase of .03 PPG, despite again being a year older.
If the theory that the SuperElit was disparately superior to the NAHL were true, then athletes would be performing better in the NAHL than the SuperElit, but this is simply not the case. Of course, some individuals do, and people here love extrapolating off of exceptions, but that is hardly an argument for a given case.

Quickly to address what little was in this post.
You do realize he was named best defenseman at the WJC18? He was so good that he won defenseman of the tournament, despite getting injured in the SF's. He was second in points at the Ivan Hlinka. Not points for a defenseman, points for a player at any position. Ridiculous argument you made. Take your time to respond. It won't be a good argument because there isn't a good argument.
People generally get crucified on HFBoards for this type of reasoning, and for good reason.

First, sample size. He played 6 games in the WJC U18. Against second, competition. The competition was dominated by 2019 draft prospects. Of the other 4 defensemen in the top 5 discussion, none of them were present. Speaking in such terms, there is absolutely no method of comparison between these athletes using merely this tournament. The second best scoring defenseman was, unsurprisingly, a 2019 draft-eligible. Boqvist is in the conversation for the 2018 draft. Only 3 of the athletes even widely considered to be in contention for a top 10 pick were present. If we allow such arguments to pass, then Brady Tkachuk's small sample sizze of 7 games against even more stalwart competition should probably put him in contention for the 2nd overall pick. Good thing most people using fairly common sense look at actual comprehensive bodies of work.

I think even a cursory glance at the best defenseman award's history would show that the award is neither an indicator for great success or for high selection. There have been some successes, Erik Karlsson, but many more disappointments. It should also be noted, Karlsson is the only defenseman from that selection that went on to become the consensus best defenseman in his drafted. Others (Shattenkirk, Fowler, Dumba) have become mainstays of the league, but are still not considered the best defensemen from their class. If, the general consensus is true, and Dahlin is a truly exceptional, never-seen-before, prospect then the battle for second would be the traditional battle for first. Finally, there are the others who have become little or nothing of note. They actually represent the super-majority of previous award winners. So, while it is certainly a nice piece of hardware to have for sentimental purposes, I don't think a strong case can be made that this award is some sort of kingmaker.

I love the Hlinka argument because, even if only on an anecdotal level, it's completely self-defeating. The top scorer, ahead of Boqvist, in that tournament was Dmitri Zavgorodny. He played, ironically, in the QMJHL this year. He was fine, he was unexceptional. That certainly doesn't bode as support for your ideological possession. Otherwise, this tournament is as suspect if not more suspect to all the previously mentioned concerns. It is a 5 game tournament. Dobson participated, but otherwise, no prospects currently considered top prospects participated, not limited to Dahlin, Tkachuk, Hughes, Wahlstrom, Zadina, Lundestrom, Kaut, or Svechnikov. Many of these had participated in prior iterations, due to birth dates, but this does not bode well for the argument using the Hlinka tournament as an elite measuring stick comparing peers. Furthermore, Canada won Gold at that tournament. Thus, even if Canadian prospects did each contribute less individually, it is likely that this was only so because they each only asked to contribute enough collectively to be successful.

I mean, simply read the cards. No one else on HFBoards right now is still talking about the results of the Hlinka Tournament. There's a reason for that.

So here's what the evidence comes down to. A nice campaign in a league with suspect competition level. A few nice international performances in short tournaments against young competition. Clearly, the argument is not as strong as you think.
 
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