Salary Cap: Do you trust Kyle Dubas with salary negotiations? Deux

[Throw More Waffles]

Thats your unbiased opinion I'm sure. No proof whatsoever efer

Career high of 69 points. All the proof anybody would need.

Can you IMAGINE if Matthews scored 100 points last year and won the Hart, and then a career high 69 point player on another team signed a more expensive contract (given term)? Do you have ANY idea how much people would be SCREAMING about how great Dubas is? It’s a joke. A complete and f***ing joke.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

First of all .... I don't know you.

And .... yeah that was market value last summer.

- Marner had like 7 more points than Nylander over 2 years (an extra million is generous).
- You can add 1.5 million to Matthews AAV if it was 8 years instead of 6.

So yeah ... pretty accurate.

Except not because you’re just making all these numbers up. So... as usual... you’ve been on this schtick for a while now.

 

[drewjenks]

Except not because you’re just making all these numbers up. So... as usual... you’ve been on this schtick for a while now.

I didn't make up Nylanders.

He signed for it.

 

[socko]

Career high of 69 points. All the proof anybody would need.

Can you IMAGINE if Matthews scored 100 points last year and won the Hart, and then a career high 69 point player on another team signed a more expensive contract (given term)? Do you have ANY idea how much people would be SCREAMING about how great Dubas is? It’s a joke. A complete and ****ing joke.

I was watching Drouin really close yesterday. Seen him many times before but really focused on him yesterday. He is the exact same player as Nylander. Clone. Price tag $5.5. Why do we overrate our young guys? Why? Let them earn the hype and paycheck.

 

[ToneDog]

Aho has 62 points in 55 games and Mitch has 66 in 54. Aho is the Canes #1C. Marner should slot closer to Aho than Matthews. I would wait until Aho signs before I sign Marner. If Marner then insists on Matthews money I tell his agent to go about the league and bring me back your best offersheet. I let him walk if compensation is 4 #1s and match otherwise.

 

[DarkKnight]

Except here’s the thing: you keep pretending his first 40 games last season should just be ignored and real life doesn’t work that way.

Have to say, this stuff is just nonsensical. In all seriousness, people are still clinging to what a KID did, as though indicative of anything moving forward. Babs put him in the doghouse to develop his defensive game, it was part of a process. That process is now ancient history, so to reference it as though "real life" is absurd. That view necessitates you don't think young players develop, you don't factor in growing pains, you don't acknowledge this situational reality.

At the end of last year some cautioned we need to see more from Marner. Fine. It was obvious he was going to go off this season to me, but sure let's be "cautious". This season the guy has absolutely dominated offensively, his defensive game is taking off, he's now on the PK and doing a good job. Marner may actually get better moving forward, some more strength, there's still room to "grow".

People still talking about life on the fourth line with Matt Martin, it's irrelevant to the discussion. That isn't the real work, that's ancient history for a now only 21 year old.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I didn't make up Nylanders.

He signed for it.

Wow, nice recovery.

 

[Bluelines]

So, in other words: "Who cares that our GM is doing a piss poor job. We'll still enjoy watching Tavares and Matthews lose in the first round due to lack of depth, right?"

And nobody is upset that it's a 5 year contract. Nope. What they're upset about is the aav attached to it. We'd be fine with that aav over 8 years.

He's doing a piss poor job based on what metric? Your opinion?

• He signed a future HOF RFA in his prime in Tavares, I don't see any other GM's luring away elite HOF UFA's in their prime.
• He traded for a top 3 d-man, with out taking away from our roster.
• The pro team that he was responsible for last year won the AHL Championship.
• With the rumors of an offer sheet swirling, he convinced Matthews to take 5 years at $11.5 years vs taking 8 years and $14 mil, $14.5 mil. You do get that $11.5 is a discount based on Matthews performance and based on where the cap will be in a couple of years? This is the new NHL, players will more and more opt for the rout Matthews has taken.

I would love to know what quantifiable metric you are using to show he is failing? Is the team tanking?

It's ONLY his fault if they get booted in the 1st round? Oh I see you are suggesting that since Dubas has not finish the rebuild in the tiny 6 months, that he has been in charge, he is doing a piss poor job? Please show me which GM has in 6 months plugged all the holes on his team?

Dude Rome was not built in a day, patience.

 

[Pookie]

Is Shanahan playing first base in this organization...

... Oblivious to the game going on around him?

He’s involved in these negotiations too. The contracts cross his desk. He reports to the Board. He wanted Dubas involved, not Lou, not Hunter.

If Dubas is struggling, maybe we can’t afford both the GM and President to be learning on the job?

 

[Pookie]

He's doing a piss poor job based on what metric? Your opinion?

• He signed a future HOF RFA in his prime in Tavares, I don't see any other GM's luring away elite HOF UFA's in their prime.
• He traded for a top 3 d-man, with out taking away from our roster.
• The pro team that he was responsible for last year won the AHL Championship.
• With the rumors of an offer sheet swirling, he convinced Matthews to take 5 years at $11.5 years vs taking 8 years and $14 mil, $14.5 mil. You do get that $11.5 is a discount based on Matthews performance and based on where the cap will be in a couple of years? This is the new NHL, players will more and more opt for the rout Matthews has taken.

I would love to know what quantifiable metric you are using to show he is failing? Is the team tanking?

It's ONLY his fault if they get booted in the 1st round? Oh I see you are suggesting that since Dubas has not finish the rebuild in the tiny 6 months, that he has been in charge, he is doing a piss poor job? Please show me which GM has in 6 months plugged all the holes on his team?

Dude Rome was not built in a day, patience.

I don’t think the Matthews’ deal was a positive at 5 years.

5 years from now we will have a very expensive renewal or a very big hole in the line up that will depart with nothing in return.

 

[DarkKnight]

He's doing a piss poor job based on what metric? Your opinion?

• He signed a future HOF RFA in his prime in Tavares, I don't see any other GM's luring away elite HOF UFA's in their prime.
• He traded for a top 3 d-man, with out taking away from our roster.
• The pro team that he was responsible for last year won the AHL Championship.
• With the rumors of an offer sheet swirling, he convinced Matthews to take 5 years at $11.5 years vs taking 8 years and $14 mil, $14.5 mil. You do get that $11.5 is a discount based on Matthews performance and based on where the cap will be in a couple of years? This is the new NHL, players will more and more opt for the rout Matthews has taken.

I would love to know what quantifiable metric you are using to show he is failing? Is the team tanking?

It's ONLY his fault if they get booted in the 1st round? Oh I see you are suggesting that since Dubas has not finish the rebuild in the tiny 6 months, that he has been in charge, he is doing a piss poor job? Please show me which GM has in 6 months plugged all the holes on his team?

Dude Rome was not built in a day, patience.

You should have stopped at bullet point 2.

 

[DarkKnight]

I don’t think the Matthews’ deal was a positive at 5 years.

5 years from now we will have a very expensive renewal or a very big hole in the line up that will depart with nothing in return.

He's the second highest paid player in the league and is free at 26, the deal stinks.

 

[LeafsFan89]

I keep reading these posts asking for Dubas' head. But when was the last time a GM had to sign three superstar players who were all virtually due at the same time? Why did Lou sign Zaitsev for that long of a deal? Why did he sign Marleau for that extra year? Why didn't Lou extend Nylander a year prior? Keep in mind that there are other factors that are contributing to the cap crunch outside of the Nylander, Matthews, and Marner contracts. Also keep in mind that Shanahan signed off on all these contracts.

Do you think there would be at least 1 other team in the NHL who would offer Matthews 13-14M? I think that is a good bet considering San Jose was offering JT 13 million? a year. It is hard to make an accurate assessment because we have no idea what went on in these negotiations and are basing opinions on the small amount of "facts" we see.

It will be interesting to see what the other big ticket RFAs on other teams sign for. If the contracts are similar, then it is hard to call these "bad contracts" if there is indeed a shift to how contracts are given to RFAs.

 

[Pookie]

...But when was the last time a GM had to sign three superstar players who were all virtually due at the same time?

Here again is a great question for Mr Shanahan.

He built this scenario with a rookie GM and exited one of the most experienced GMs in the game in time for these negotiations.

(And lost Hunter too).

I’m not going to conclude pass or fail on Dubas. However, to those that have concluded fail... look up the org chart.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Fail on what? Signing Tavares? Trading for Muzzin to fill our greatest need? Locking up our superstar young players to long term contracts so we can contend for years into the future?

Oh wait, I forgot Matthews signed for 5 years instead of 8. I guess that means all that is out the window, the franchise is doomed and management is asleep at the wheel. All because of that.

 

[Bluelines]

Have to say, this stuff is just nonsensical. In all seriousness, people are still clinging to what a KID did, as though indicative of anything moving forward. Babs put him in the doghouse to develop his defensive game, it was part of a process. That process is now ancient history, so to reference it as though "real life" is absurd. That view necessitates you don't think young players develop, you don't factor in growing pains, you don't acknowledge this situational reality.

At the end of last year some cautioned we need to see more from Marner. Fine. It was obvious he was going to go off this season to me, but sure let's be "cautious". This season the guy has absolutely dominated offensively, his defensive game is taking off, he's now on the PK and doing a good job. Marner may actually get better moving forward, some more strength, there's still room to "grow".

People still talking about life on the fourth line with Matt Martin, it's irrelevant to the discussion. That isn't the real work, that's ancient history for a now only 21 year old.

I gotta agree with you, we have a 12 month continuous sample size that shows Mitch is the real deal, scoring at a pace of 1.1o points per game.

	Games	Goals	Assists	G/gm	A/gm	P/gm
October 2017	12	1	5	0.08	0.42	0.50
November 2017	15	1	9	0.07	0.60	0.67
December 2017	13	3	10	0.23	0.77	1.00
January 2018	12	3	3	0.25	0.25	0.50
February 2018	14	9	9	0.64	0.64	1.29
March 2018	13	5	11	0.38	0.85	1.23
April 2018	3	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
October 2018	12	4	12	0.33	1.00	1.33
November 2018	14	2	18	0.14	1.29	1.43
December 2018	13	7	10	0.54	0.77	1.31
January 2019	10	7	2	0.70	0.20	0.90
February 2019	5	0	4	0.00	0.80	0.80
Beginning of last season to today	136	42	93	0.31	0.68	0.99
Jan 2018 - today	96	37	69	0.39	0.72	1.10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Even if you include all of last year up to today, which includes his horrible start last year, he is at a point per game.

The guy is simply magic. Special. Line driver. Difference maker. What ever you want to call him, the guy is worth every penny he gets with his new contract.

We haven't even talked about his 13 point sin 13 playoff games.

 

[Bluelines]

I don’t think the Matthews’ deal was a positive at 5 years.

5 years from now we will have a very expensive renewal or a very big hole in the line up that will depart with nothing in return.

You can speculate that but you don't know that for a fact. In reality ONE elite player has left his team via RFA in the last 10 years, and that guy left because Dubas convinced him to leave. Malkin/Crosby, Kane/Toews all signed 5 year extensions on their RFA contracts and they all resigned ater those 5 years with their respective teams. It's very uncommon for an elite RFA to leave their team when they hit UFA status. If Matthews is an expensive renewal, that would mean that over the next 5 years he performed at a level to demand a raise, that is a good thing. That would also suggest that if he is in line for a big raise in 5 years, this new contract was worth every penny. You don't hand out massive raises on a $11.6 mil contract on players who have not lived up to their previous contract.

Keep in mind a number of things, like the expansion of Seattle, the gambling partnership and the new US national contract. +,+ are all going to happen in the next 2 years. That will drive up HRR and in turn drive up the cap, conservatively $6 million per year, over where it is now, that does not include at a minimum 3% growth in revenues YOY. Hell who knows maybe Gary will finally make our players look like skating billboards and make a cash cow out of on jersey ads.

I'm not concerned one little bit about 5 years down the road.

 

[Menzinger]

You can speculate that but you don't know that for a fact. In reality ONE elite player has left his team via RFA in the last 10 years, and that guy left because Dubas convinced him to leave. Malkin/Crosby, Kane/Toews all signed 5 year extensions on their RFA contracts and they all resigned ater those 5 years with their respective teams. It's very uncommon for an elite RFA to leave their team when they hit UFA status. If Matthews is an expensive renewal, that would mean that over the next 5 years he performed at a level to demand a raise, that is a good thing. That would also suggest that if he is in line for a big raise in 5 years, this new contract was worth every penny. You don't hand out massive raises on a $11.6 mil contract on players who have not lived up to their previous contract.

Keep in mind a number of things, like the expansion of Seattle, the gambling partnership and the new US national contract. +,+ are all going to happen in the next 2 years. That will drive up HRR and in turn drive up the cap, conservatively $6 million per year, over where it is now, that does not include at a minimum 3% growth in revenues YOY. Hell who knows maybe Gary will finally make our players look like skating billboards and make a cash cow out of on jersey ads.

I'm not concerned one little bit about 5 years down the road.

Very good post.

Historically speaking, 5-6 year deals for high profile RFAs are the norm, so I don’t know why term has become such a major fixation on this deal.

Matthews’ RFa caphit essentially slides between what guys like Crosby/Malkin vs Kane/Toews took up (exactly where he should be) And NONE of those guys left their teams after it was up.

 

[Mess]

Dubas believes you can pay a few highly skilled players a huge C.H % of your teams total salary cap (higher than any team in the league by far) AM & JT are currently as of next year #2 #3 overall highest AAV, and thinks he can surround them with enough ELC and cheap contracts to allow the Leafs to compete for the Cup.

Starting next year after Marner's next contract kicks in, we will soon find out, if he is right or not.

PS. Currently no team with a double digit AAV player has ever won it all, and Leafs might soon have 3 of them on the roster among the highest paid.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Dubas believes you can pay a few highly skilled players a huge C.H % of your teams total salary cap (higher than any team in the league by far) AM & JT are currently as of next year #2 #3 overall highest AAV, and thinks he can surround them with enough ELC and cheap contracts to allow the Leafs to compete for the Cup.

Starting next year after Marner's next contract kicks in, we will soon find out, if he is right or not.

PS. Currently no team with a double digit AAV player has ever won it all, and Leafs might soon have 3 of them on the roster among the highest paid.

We should trade them for worse players so we don't have this problem.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Dubas believes you can pay a few highly skilled players a huge C.H % of your teams total salary cap (higher than any team in the league by far) AM & JT are currently as of next year #2 #3 overall highest AAV, and thinks he can surround them with enough ELC and cheap contracts to allow the Leafs to compete for the Cup.

Starting next year after Marner's next contract kicks in, we will soon find out, if he is right or not.

PS. Currently no team with a double digit AAV player has ever won it all, and Leafs might soon have 3 of them on the roster among the highest paid.

Hockey is a team game. That works in basketball. You'll never watch a basketball game where LeBron is non-existent. But lots of games Matthews is a non-factor.

Our stars don't share management's vision. Boston's top line sacrificed AAV to create a better team. Leave some on the table for the other guys in the room.

The recipe feels wrong. if we lose kapanen or johnsson ... i think it shows we are in trouble.

 

[Doug Gilmour]

Hockey is a team game. That works in basketball. You'll never watch a basketball game where LeBron is non-existent. But lots of games Matthews is a non-factor.

Our stars don't share management's vision. Boston's top line sacrificed AAV to create a better team. Leave some on the table for the other guys in the room.

The recipe feels wrong. if we lose kapanen or johnsson ... i think it shows we are in trouble.

I agree with the first 2 points you made but as for the 3rd point not sure I’m onboard yet with that thinking. Johnsson and Kapanen are very similar players so losing 1 of them is not the death of this team.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Career high of 69 points. All the proof anybody would need.

Can you IMAGINE if Matthews scored 100 points last year and won the Hart, and then a career high 69 point player on another team signed a more expensive contract (given term)? Do you have ANY idea how much people would be SCREAMING about how great Dubas is? It’s a joke. A complete and ****ing joke.

). I just don't agree at this point. Great win last night eh!!! Enjoy and Happy sunday)

 

[hotpaws]

Dubas believes you can pay a few highly skilled players a huge C.H % of your teams total salary cap (higher than any team in the league by far) AM & JT are currently as of next year #2 #3 overall highest AAV, and thinks he can surround them with enough ELC and cheap contracts to allow the Leafs to compete for the Cup.

Starting next year after Marner's next contract kicks in, we will soon find out, if he is right or not.

PS. Currently no team with a double digit AAV player has ever won it all, and Leafs might soon have 3 of them on the roster among the highest paid.

naw , Dumbass actually believed he talked JT into coming here and thought he could talk the kids into taking discounts to balance out making JT the 2nd highest cap hit in the NHL

he came up with his "we vs me" media campaign while low balling the kids behind the scene , it back fired and he's made himself the biggest joke in the league with only his fan club left to defend his moves

 

[Mess]

Hockey is a team game. That works in basketball. You'll never watch a basketball game where LeBron is non-existent. But lots of games Matthews is a non-factor.

Our stars don't share management's vision. Boston's top line sacrificed AAV to create a better team. Leave some on the table for the other guys in the room.

The recipe feels wrong. if we lose kapanen or johnsson ... i think it shows we are in trouble.

The Shanaplan was for Shanny and Dubas to sell their stars on taking less $$ then market in order to create strong competitive teams around them. Both Shanny and Dubas hit the media trail in the summer trying to sell the "We before Me" plan to the 3 Amigos, and claiming they're not interested it setting new high water market limits when resigning. They even claimed they required "team players" to buy into the plan or they wouldn't be here long-term.

I thought it was naive of Leafs management to believe this strategy was going to work, and I blame Shanny in a way for thinking a young inexperienced GM was going to be able to sweet talk and sell this plan to seasoned veteran player agents. This reminds me in a way of when Leafs replaced Quinn with JFJ and and then a rookie GM made endless signing mistakes that result in failure not success.

That plan has been a complete failure as Leafs kids are clearly not taking any discounts, and forcing Dubas to overpay, and also not willing to give away very many UFA years, while shattering the market comparables for their past production.