You said there was no statistical basis and I gave you one. Now you change your stance - not a surprise you are so biased in your view of McDavid its laughable.
Do you think McDavid is having the best season of the 2000s or the new divisions are the reason?
- Thread starter illpucks
- Start date
We are talking about McDavid specifically. Like Matthews, his season is a statistical anomaly compared to their other seasons which may or may not be attributable to the significant changes to the league. If they do these things again under normal circumstances then they deserve to be taken more at face value.
I'm sure the division change factors a little bit, but his numbers don't look extraordinarily outlandish or anything. He had 97pts last year in 64 games. He's at 93 right now(or more, not sure if they updated for today). He could easily close out with a 100. He's 24, so he's only going to get better.
This. And between the teams that suck, i am pretty sure likes of Arizona, San Jose are better teams defensively than Ottawa or Vancouver.
this. the Canadian division is collectively the worst division of defenses in the league and it's primed for mcdavid to abuse nightly
when Toronto is the best defense in that division, it's a red flag the division as a whole can't defend
On other hand, i wish all the other divisions were like that. I watched some Avs games recently against likes of Vegas and Saint Louis and all of them were boring as f***. Constant overflowing of neutral zone, checking, clutching, holding and as a result dumping the puck leading to more clutching in the corners trying to retrieve it....
I personally don't care for comparisons. McDavid is a really special player who's done special things his entire hockey career including in the NHL. He has tormented officially good and officially bad NHL teams, defensemen, and tendies. The Oilers have a young core with 2 special superstars only now entering their prime (mid to late 20's).
I don't, at all, buy into the weak-division stuff. There might be 1 non-weak COVID division based on what is said about the North being "the weakest" and that division (Central) includes DET which was one of the worst teams all-time last non-COVID season. I'm aware BUF is close to Canada, but they play in the East (along with NJD and PHI just lol).
If you can't evaluate these young players outstanding #'s on the whole, and accept they are progressing, perhaps some specific examples:
but yeah they only feast on the bad teams with bad D &/or goaltending in the weak North.
I don't, at all, buy into the weak-division stuff. There might be 1 non-weak COVID division based on what is said about the North being "the weakest" and that division (Central) includes DET which was one of the worst teams all-time last non-COVID season. I'm aware BUF is close to Canada, but they play in the East (along with NJD and PHI just lol).
If you can't evaluate these young players outstanding #'s on the whole, and accept they are progressing, perhaps some specific examples:
- at age 19 AM scored 4 goals in his 1st NHL game vs. the 2016-17 Sens (a team that eventually lost in double overtime in game seven of the Eastern Conference Final to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins)
- at age 21 Connor scored 4 goals on the 2017-18 Lightning (Eastern Conf. Champs would go on to loose in Game 7 to the Cup winning Caps)
but yeah they only feast on the bad teams with bad D &/or goaltending in the weak North.
Beukeboom
Registered User
- Apr 1, 2007
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All we have to do is wait for the next season?
99 and 66 pulled off this sort of dominance for decades each. Kane, Kucherov and to some extent Draisaitl, are three players that had resent peak seasons well above the others, but have been unable to replicate them. McDavid has to maintain this dominance over at least one "normal" regular season or I will see this as an anomaly. However his usual level is still the best in the world.
99 and 66 pulled off this sort of dominance for decades each. Kane, Kucherov and to some extent Draisaitl, are three players that had resent peak seasons well above the others, but have been unable to replicate them. McDavid has to maintain this dominance over at least one "normal" regular season or I will see this as an anomaly. However his usual level is still the best in the world.
And even if he does, we'll probably see the discussion shift again over to McDavid needs to be better defensively / McDavid isn't a leader / McDavid doesn't do what it takes to win / etc..
See: last season's qualifying round vs. Chicago (9pts in 4GP).
I’m open to the idea that numbers are inflated due to the division. So how many points should we shave off to make the numbers more accurate? 10? So McDavid has 83 points, Tkachuk has 24 and Kassian has -5 points?
The best team in the North had the 12th highest win percentage in the NHL last year, so he's avoided every single team that finished in the top third. Yes, I think it's plausible that has something to do with it. It's a shortened season, so I don't really care that much. He can prove me wrong next year.
budzz
History is just that.
- Jan 26, 2015
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Meh the "North is weak" argument is seriously getting tired. McDavid dominated the points race the past few years, and is doing it again. Matthews has been at the top of the goal scoring list the past few years, and is doing it again. McDavid is 24 and getting better, and Matthews is 23 and getting better. These guys prove they can be at the top against anyone.
Maybe we need to start a thread about Vezina races and goals against records? How can they be taken seriously when every other division won't see McDavid, Drai, Matthews and Marner, 4 of the top point getters in the league the last few years? GAA for every other team in every other division should have an asterisk beside it, since they aren't facing the top scorers in the league right?
Maybe we need to start a thread about Vezina races and goals against records? How can they be taken seriously when every other division won't see McDavid, Drai, Matthews and Marner, 4 of the top point getters in the league the last few years? GAA for every other team in every other division should have an asterisk beside it, since they aren't facing the top scorers in the league right?
The North is weak - but that just means you need to do some minor adjustments is all. And obviously - there's no perfect method, and it's all guesswork until we see how things go next year under more normal circumstances and can get a better handle on how much we probably should adjust this year's stats when comparing across eras.
So McDavid has 93 points in 51 games.
Too many people are making absolute statements like "North division - doesn't count, let's see next year". No, that's dumb. It does count, and it's an absolutely fantastic season...it just probably needs to be adjusted down slightly to compare to other seasons. So when you want to compare this season to the best season/stretch of any of Crosby/Ovi/Jagr etc - maybe McDavid's 93 points in 51 games should be adjusted to....88 in 51? 80 in 51? 85 in 51? Not sure exactly, but it probably warrants at least a slight adjustment down.
Honestly - his numbers are starting to look insane enough that even with adjusting he'll have a strong argument to be the best season of the century.
budzz
History is just that.
- Jan 26, 2015
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Yeah McDavid is clearly an average player. I think 2 2nd rounders and maybe a fourth should get him.
I don't think McDavid nor Matthew's totals need to be "taken at face value" to be impressive as hell, and among the best seasons (or goal-scoring season for Matthews) this century.
93 in 51 is a staggering number. I think once things go back to normal league-wide next year we'll probably get a better sense of how much this season warrants "adjusting" - but how much do you expect it to be by?
If you compare to Crosby in 2011.
2011 - league average goal-scoring 2.73 per game.
2021 - league average goal-scoring 2.87 goals per game. That's ~5% higher
2021 North division only - average goal scoring 2.94 goals per game. That's ~8% higher
Want to add an extra 5% for good measure, just due to unusual circumstances/making it hard to read? Ok - we're now at ~13% higher.
McDavid has 93 points in 51 games. That's a pace of 150 points in 82 games.
If you reduce his numbers by 5% you get 88 points in 51 games, or a pace of 142 points in 82 games
If you reduce his numbers by 8% you get 85 points in 51 games, or a pace of 136 points in 82 games
If you reduce his numbers by 13% you get 80 points in 51 games, or a pace of 129 points in 82 games
Crosby in 2011 had 66 in 41. A pace of 132 in 82 games.
I guess if you use 13% (remember I randomly added an extra 5%) - you can say Crosby's pace was higher - but he also only played 41 games, to McDavid's now 51 games.
McDavid also had another problem, where a few weeks ago it looked like ~35-40% of his offense cam against the 2 worst teams (Calgary/Ottawa). I remember a while ago I showed how against those 2 teams he had a pace of ~193 points, and against the rest was ~110 points. But that's normalized a lot since then.
Pace of 168 points against Calgary/Ottawa (who aren't even the 2 worst teams in division anymore, as Vancouver is worst)
Pace of 138 points against the other 4 teams
Also - in all of my calculations above, I tried to round off #s in the most negative direction possible for McDavid.
Simply put - he's having a fantastic season. I'm fine to wait and see how things look next year to get a bit more context and be able to put it into better perspective - but at this point, I think he'll have a very strong argument for best season of the 2000's.
Not a big fan of adjusting anything (especially using league GPG); merely putting things into context. If he does it again, great. If he doesn't, then one can question the strength of this season as his "peak" season.
It will likely be of marginal significance when his career is over.
OgeeOgelthorpe
Baldina
- Feb 29, 2020
- 17,162
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This.
I'm not saying that McDavid isn't a tremendous player, but the guy is ripping up teams that have no shutdown options. Put him in the Pacific or Atlantic division and McDavid is scoring 20-25 points fewer on the season.
Put him in the pacific where he gets to feast on Calgary, Vancouver, Anaheim, Arizona, LA and San Jose? And scoring 20-25 points less?
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