Do you believe in Frederik Andersen? Would you re-sign?

[zeke]

Not unique, no lol.
But yes - team play impacts goalie save percentages. And ours tends to impact them negatively.

That's a claim in need of evidence.

 

[Gallagbi]

So because the Leafs highly touted and expensive offence couldn't perform up to standards (or anywhere near it for that matter during the CBJ series) its now up to Andy to cover for them and if he fails its all his fault not on the offence that failed to produce yet again? Scoring chances falls in the same category as xGA both are highly inaccurate stat, that needs a massive change in thw shot quality data in order to be more informative on its own.

Whats this game 5 back breaking goal your even talking about, CBJ scored a grand total of 2 goals against Freddy in game 5, you telling me this offence that needed to proved a statement after the previous playoff woes against Boston and the Babcock firing, gave up after CBJ scored 1 goal in the last game of the series? That is a loser's mentality, if that actually the Leafs way of thinking then they deserved to be eliminated in the 1st round every single year, this a top 5, high powered offence with shoddy defence that only allowed 2 goals in the elimination game yet you are acting like Freddy allowed 6 goals in the 1st period essentially putting the game away.

Also, Freddy allowed 1 goal in 34 shots in game 1, but sure he was the reason for the L not the top 5 offence that couldn't even get 1 after the Leaf's shoddy defence and steady goaltending gave them a near perfect breathing room, YOU KNOW WHATS MORE BACK BREAKING THAN THE GOALS ANDY GAVE UP? ITS WATCHING THE TOP 5 OFFENCE GET WALLED THE WHOLE GAME.

As for the bolded, the Leafs top 5 offence scored 1 goal, yes 1 measly goal by JT in their last 2 , game 7/5 elimination game COMBINED against Boston and CBJ while Andy allowed 5 goals combined for those 2 games, that is a 2.5 GAA, yet here you solely putting the blame on Andy's feet. The offence should be in the hot seat here, moreso than Andy.

Last post since weve both said our piece and I've already done a detailed review of Freds struggles in Game 5/7 after the last series loss.

You can be disappointed in the lack of scoring and also disappointed in the goaltending.

You can also look at the opportunities, stats and saves to reconcile what you see. St the end of the day a Game 5/7 is expected to be tight. We've had some high scoring ones (2018) and low scoring (2019/2020). Every instance there Fred was the weaker goalie and simply allowed pucks to go on that are saved 99.5% of the time. Last year's second goal was awful. First goal vs. Boston the year prior isn't even a SOG. Back to back years he allows a bad goal to put us down 2 in a close game. Is that the reason we lost? I wouldn't say that, but it certainly closed the door in those tight series and tight games on pucks that simply cannot go in. These weren't "need a big save" moments they were "make a routine save" plays.

 

[LFCTML]

That's a claim in need of evidence.

I'm not sure if you're trolling or not, but there's been quite a significant amount of evidence put out there over the past decade. I mean, you can see it pretty plainly looking at team save percentages vs. individuals. Defensive/team systems demonstrate significantly stronger correlations to save percentage than a specific player. This is why we've seen certain teams over the years (Philly, Edmonton, Florida etc.) that just can't seem to "find" a goalie, while teams playing more defensive systems like Columbus and Minnesota (up until quite recently) put up quite stellar goalie stats no matter who's in net. Just look at Bobrovsky in Florida vs. in Columbus. It's why you see teams make deals for backups in defensive systems (Bernier, Jones from LA) who get exposed when they go somewhere that doesn't protect them as adequately.

But if you need solid data, start on page 16 of this article. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/216907961.pdf

 

[Steve]

My question for people who dont want him back is who's replacing him? I'm on the fence with Freddy. I find him incredibly skilled but isn't capable of ever carrying the team like you'll see with an elite goalie. If you go with Campbell, you'd better have a 1B behind him because as much as I like Campbell, he's never been a number 1.

This is the problem we have. We don't have a starter and I don't know any better alternatives available but TBD on that part. If he leaves, I think we drop a fair amount in Wins. I don't love him but i'd sign him for a 2-3 years at or slightly below where he's at just now.

 

[Bomber0104]

I'm not sure if you're trolling or not, but there's been quite a significant amount of evidence put out there over the past decade. I mean, you can see it pretty plainly looking at team save percentages vs. individuals. Defensive/team systems demonstrate significantly stronger correlations to save percentage than a specific player. This is why we've seen certain teams over the years (Philly, Edmonton, Florida etc.) that just can't seem to "find" a goalie, while teams playing more defensive systems like Columbus and Minnesota (up until quite recently) put up quite stellar goalie stats no matter who's in net. Just look at Bobrovsky in Florida vs. in Columbus. It's why you see teams make deals for backups in defensive systems (Bernier, Jones from LA) who get exposed when they go somewhere that doesn't protect them as adequately.

But if you need solid data, start on page 16 of this article. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/216907961.pdf

Wait so are are you telling me Cam Talbot didn't just get "good" going from Edmonton to the Minnesota Wild at age 33?!

Interesting article you posted though.

I'm going to read it over lunch.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

This is the problem we have. We don't have a starter and I don't know any better alternatives available but TBD on that part. If he leaves, I think we drop a fair amount in Wins. I don't love him but i'd sign him for a 2-3 years at or slightly below where he's at just now.

We need to give Soup a good look this year and give him 10 games as starter to see what we got ... da injury has caused issues ... da Devils pick up of Dell has caused problems ... but that is pro hockey and you have to perform when you get your chance ... I think Soup can do it for us but bottom line we have to give him a chance when he gets healthy again ... then next year it is Soup and another lower AAV guy who split net and help us resign Zach, add another big defensive Dman and a 3rd line centre

 

[LFCTML]

Wait so are are you telling me Cam Talbot didn't just get "good" going from Edmonton to the Minnesota Wild at age 33?!

Crazy, right? Also turns out that not every backup to put on a Bruins sweater over the past decade was a Vezina-caliber goalie. Crazy stuff.

I'm not saying that goalies don't matter. There's clearly a difference between the truly elite and the fringe starters. But I believe the margins are smaller than most people think. It's one of the reasons that we talk so much about a goalie getting "hot" at the right time. It just takes so little to push those margins.

I think truly elite goalies are pretty damn rare. The Roy or Brodeur type, I mean. They break the rules.
But for every one of them, you have guys like Chris Osgood and Anti Niemi winning cups behind some really, really stellar teams.

I'm probably not completely right about this. I tend to lean really far on the "team" side, when it comes to taking ownership for goalie stats. But it seems like the Leaf fanbase in particular leans quite heavily in the opposite direction. And the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. If I'm right though, we'll see goalie contracts decrease in the years ahead, as the use of advanced stats becomes more prevalent, and they're adapted to show increasing levels of consistency.

 

[zeke]

I'm not sure if you're trolling or not, but there's been quite a significant amount of evidence put out there over the past decade. I mean, you can see it pretty plainly looking at team save percentages vs. individuals. Defensive/team systems demonstrate significantly stronger correlations to save percentage than a specific player. This is why we've seen certain teams over the years (Philly, Edmonton, Florida etc.) that just can't seem to "find" a goalie, while teams playing more defensive systems like Columbus and Minnesota (up until quite recently) put up quite stellar goalie stats no matter who's in net. Just look at Bobrovsky in Florida vs. in Columbus. It's why you see teams make deals for backups in defensive systems (Bernier, Jones from LA) who get exposed when they go somewhere that doesn't protect them as adequately.

But if you need solid data, start on page 16 of this article. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/216907961.pdf

This is actually completely backwards.

The preponderance of evidence shows that goalies that play for teams which allow more shots put up higher save percentages.

And Jonathan Bernier put up a .912sv% behind LA's defense and a .915sv% behind TOR's defense.

Fred put up the exact same .918sv% in his first 3yrs with us as he did in his 3yrs in Anaheim....but over the last 100gms or so has seen his save percentage dip badly, even as the team in front of him has clearly improved defensively.

In fact I'd enjoy it if you found a single example of a leafs goalie that put up better save percentages with another team.

It seems like you're the one thats trolling with no evidence.

 

[Carltons Cup]

Seeing as how MLSE has all the money in the world to hire doctors, trainers, medical staff etc., I wondered if they ever considered hiring a hypnotist? They can hypnotize Freddy into not letting in soft goals ever again.....

Worth considering no?

 

[Bomber0104]

This is actually completely backwards.

The preponderance of evidence shows that goalies that play for teams which allow more shots put up higher save percentages.

And Jonathan Bernier put up a .912sv% behind LA's defense and a .915sv% behind TOR's defense.

Fred put up the exact same .918sv% in his first 3yrs with us as he did in his 3yrs in Anaheim....but over the last 100gms or so has seen his save percentage dip badly, even as the team in front of him has clearly improved defensively.

In fact I'd enjoy it if you found a single example of a leafs goalie that put up better save percentages with another team.

It seems like you're the one thats trolling with no evidence.

Easy. Reimer.

Prior to him, Giguere.

Those were completely expected results to those of us who were paying attention at the time.

 

[stickty111]

Do you really believe the leafs are some unique team that makes all their goalies have worse save percentages?

The funny thing is Reimer who played on an absolutely awful defensive team had better numbers then Freddy.

 

[stickty111]

Not unique, no lol.
But yes - team play impacts goalie save percentages. And ours tends to impact them negatively.

Except we are a solid defensive team this season or have been since Keefe was hired. You can't use that excuse for Freddy now.

 

[Gallagbi]

Wait so are are you telling me Cam Talbot didn't just get "good" going from Edmonton to the Minnesota Wild at age 33?!

Interesting article you posted though.

I'm going to read it over lunch.

Didn't he start with similar numbers in Edmonton and then leave Calgary with similar numbers to what he's putting up now?

Definitely had a big dip over that end Edmonton time, but these aren't new numbers for him

 

[zeke]

Easy. Reimer.

Prior to him, Giguere.

Those were completely expected results to those of us who were paying attention at the time.

Giguere last 2yrs in Anaheim (Starter, age 31-32): .900sv%
Giguere 2yrs in Toronto (Starter, age 32-33): .906sv%
Giguere in Colorado (Backup, age 34-36): .914sv%


Reimer in Toronto: .914sv%
Reimer in Florida: .912sv%
Reimer in Carolina: .910sv%

not so easy, evidently.

even to those of you who were apparently "paying attention".

try again.

 

[LFCTML]

This is actually completely backwards.

The preponderance of evidence shows that goalies that play for teams which allow more shots put up higher save percentages.

I would agree with this 100%. But I don't know that shot quality is a great metric for team defense. The teams that I consider to defend poorly, are the ones that give up high numbers of high-danger chances against. Particularly odd-man rushes and shots from the slot. There are plenty of teams that have a system designed to give up shots from the perimeter. And it makes sense that they would have both high shots against, and high save percentages.

And Jonathan Bernier put up a .912sv% behind LA's defense and a .915sv% behind TOR's defense.

This is worth considering. But it's a small sample size, and it's worth noting that his games with LA were predominately when he was just breaking into the league as a young, developing player. His last season with LA he posted a .922. Again, small sample size. But I'm not sure it makes a great case.

Fred put up the exact same .918sv% in his first 3yrs with us as he did in his 3yrs in Anaheim....but over the last 100gms or so has seen his save percentage dip badly, even as the team in front of him has clearly improved defensively.

That's a pretty good point. I certainly would have expected more change in his numbers here. It's worth looking at, for sure, and I don't have a great answer for you.
But I would say that, while our team has improved defensively in some ways, and we're giving up less shots and less possession, we are still giving up the kinds of opportunities that decimate goalie stats. To back that up, notice that even with Freddy's .905 right now, he's THIRD in the league at 5-on-5 save% above expected. It's not a perfect stat, but it at least gives some context to what kind of saves he's making. (Reference here if you're interested: NHL Goalie Statistics)

In fact I'd enjoy it if you found a single example of a leafs goalie that put up better save percentages with another team.

This is a fantastic argument, because I really can't. And I genuinely appreciate you pointing it out. We haven't had a tremendous amount of goalies coming and going, it's really just been Bernier recently as a starter. But I'd still expect to see numbers that support my claims. I'll concede your point here. But every rule has exceptions, and I still feel that the majority of the data is strongly on my side.

It seems like you're the one thats trolling with no evidence.

It was an honest question on my part. The comment I responded to, in which you questioned a general correlation between team play and goalie save percentage, seemed strange to me, and it sounded like trolling. And I provided clear evidence in response to your question, both with an argument, and with some fairly thorough research to back it up. If you choose to disregard it, that's fine.

At the end of the day, I don't think either of us will convince each other to totally change our views on this. It's a debate going on for a long time. But you've definitely made me think - thanks Zeke.

 

[FreeBird]

Didn't he start with similar numbers in Edmonton and then leave Calgary with similar numbers to what he's putting up now?
Definitely had a big dip over that end Edmonton time, but these aren't new numbers for him

Freddy named 1st star 3times in the last two weeks, deduct 6 pts from their present record were are they

 

[Bomber0104]

Giguere last 2yrs in Anaheim (Starter, age 31-32): .900sv%
Giguere 2yrs in Toronto (Starter, age 32-33): .906sv%
Giguere in Colorado (Backup, age 34-36): .914sv%


Reimer in Toronto: .914sv%
Reimer in Florida: .912sv%
Reimer in Carolina: .910sv%

not so easy, evidently.

even to those of you who were apparently "paying attention".

try again.

Both of their numbers spiked considerably immediately after leaving Toronto.

Of course you omitted the fact that Reimer stopped off in San Jose first and put up a .938 over 8 games before posting a .920 the following season with Florida.

Giguere's numbers jumped from .900 in Toronto to a .918 with Colorado the following season.

Those huge spikes were entirely foreseen to those of us that understood how poorly the Leafs played in front of their netminders at the time.

 

[zeke]

Both of their numbers spiked considerably immediately after leaving Toronto.

Of course you omitted the fact that Reimer stopped off in San Jose first and put up a .938 over 8 games before posting a .920 the following season with Florida.

Giguere's numbers jumped from .900 in Toronto to a .918 with Colorado the following season.

Those huge spikes were entirely foreseen to those of us that understood how poorly the Leafs played in front of their netminders at the time.

Reimer

15-16 TOR .918 (32gms)
15-16 SJS .938 (8gms)
16-17 FLA .920 (43gms)
17-18 FLA .913 (44gms)

"huge spike"


Giguere

08-09 ANA .900 (46gms)
09-10 ANA .900 (20gms)
09-10 TOR .916 (15gms)
10-11 TOR .900 (32gms)

oh hey look Giguere actually received a "huge spike" when he CAME to toronto.

 

[bodechek]

What might happen is that you let Andersen walk as a FA, then try to make a deal with a team like the Golden Knights who might lose a goalie with the up and coming expansion draft. I would love to see if they could get MAF in a Leaf jersey, but it is just wishful thinking. I think Andersen is a good goalie on a great team, but that is just my opinion. He reminds me of Tim Cheveldae, where the Red Wings had a great team, but goaltending let them down when it counted.

 

[Bomber0104]

Reimer

15-16 TOR .918 (32gms)
15-16 SJS .938 (8gms)
16-17 FLA .920 (43gms)
17-18 FLA .913 (44gms)

"huge spike"


Giguere

08-09 ANA .900 (46gms)
09-10 ANA .900 (20gms)
09-10 TOR .916 (15gms)
10-11 TOR .900 (32gms)

oh hey look Giguere actually received a "huge spike" when he CAME to toronto.

You asked for an example of a Leafs goalie whose numbers got better after leaving the team and I gave you two that did just that within a season (or in Reimer's case the same season with San Jose that you conveniently ignored).

Sorry you don't like the answer to your own question

I'll look for some more examples when I have some time.

 

[zeke]

You asked for an example of a Leafs goalie whose numbers got better after leaving the team and I gave you two that did just that within a season (or in Reimer's case the same season with San Jose that you conveniently ignored).

Sorry you don't like the answer to your own question

I'll look for some more examples when I have some time.

I gave you the numbers of the goalies you brought up.

You (adorably) went with a tinier sample to ignore the larger one.

 

[Gallagbi]

Freddy named 1st star 3times in the last two weeks, deduct 6 pts from their present record were are they

Couple of things
1. That post was about Talbot
2. I see two 1st stars (last night, Feb 8)
3. Who the hell uses "stars"?
4. Who is replacing Fred in your imaginary situation? Do we get average goaltending that likely nets us a Regulation win v. Ottawa in Game 1 of this series?

 

[Bomber0104]

I gave you the numbers of the goalies you brought up.

You (adorably) went with a tinier sample to ignore the larger one.

A larger sample size over multiple seasons might be more useful if teams' rosters never changed / players didn't age / coaches replaced etc.

Unfortunately for you they do so treating team-defence as a unchanging constant across 3+ years with the only variable changing being the goaltender's performance, is well, wildly wrong...

The opposite is more likely true where the goaltender's performance is steadier and more consistent across the sample and the play of the roster in front of him subject to greater volatility.

 

[Magic Man]

I'm not sure how comfortable I am with any of the UFA options. Part of how I would look at his re-sign would depend on how he finishes the year. But, I'd like to move on based on what we've seen up to this point. He was a great goalie for the Leafs. A true starter and he helped us to the post-season several times over now. It was the right move to bring him in at that price point at the right time. Until I see who shakes loose at the end of the year and how everyone does, I'll put trust in the Dubes to money puck the right goalie after expansion.

 

[Bomber0104]

I'm not sure how comfortable I am with any of the UFA options. Part of how I would look at his re-sign would depend on how he finishes the year. But, I'd like to move on based on what we've seen up to this point. He was a great goalie for the Leafs. A true starter and he helped us to the post-season several times over now. It was the right move to bring him in at that price point at the right time. Until I see who shakes loose at the end of the year and how everyone does, I'll put trust in the Dubes to money puck the right goalie after expansion.

It may be a bit risky but I could see us taking a chance on Driedger.