News Article: Do these Toronto Maple Leafs look familiar? That’s because little has changed

[Mess]

I'd agree, with the caveat that if you look at it from a talent-in talent-out perspective it's difficult to argue a lot has changed other than names.

Leafs will be counting on advancement from their young players and that their bottom two lines, if not more talented, will at least be more competent and reliable when compared to what other teams have. That's going to take guys like Komarov, Santorelli, Booth and Kontiola to play some tangible good minutes for us.

The outgoing players TOI/g 2013-14

Raymond (17:20), Kulemin (16:12), McClement (14:45), Bolland (14:27)

Incoming players TOI/g

Last time Komarov was a Leaf 13:56 TOI/g in 2012-13, and Booth last year @ 13:28 & Santorelli @ 17:49 in 2013-14.

I suppose the new guys Komarov, Santorelli, Booth and Kontiola will need to be able to supply similar ice time to the departed.

 

[Morbo]

The outgoing players TOI/g 2013-14

Raymond (17:20), Kulemin (16:12), McClement (14:45), Bolland (14:27)

Incoming players TOI/g

Last time Komarov was a Leaf 13:56 TOI/g in 2012-13, and Booth last year @ 13:28 & Santorelli @ 17:49 in 2013-14.

I suppose the new guys Komarov, Santorelli, Booth and Kontiola will need to be able to supply similar ice time to the departed.

Yes, but more importantly they also have to provide more tangible contribution than guys like for example McClement and Kulemin did(and Orr and McLaren)...those players weren't really contributing to making the Leafs a better defensive team last year, but they weren't providing any real offensive production either. You simply can't have players in your lineup taking up space and not contributing to one or the other(if not both).

 

[Kubus]

Currently the top line plays between 20 - 21 TOI/g on average

Kessel @ 20:39 TOI/g = PPG so Kessel @ ~18:00 TOI/g = ?

Are you expecting the top line to score more with less TOI/g?.

Or is the added offense expected to come from the support players in the bottom 6 with the increased ice time that lines 3 and 4 are now going to get?

Actually, yes. At the very least the same amount.

I'm expecting that if our bottom 6 is competent our top 6 won't have to start in the defensive zone all the time. This means increased scoring chances. Our top 6 starting in the offensive zone means more penalties will be drawn by us. Also if our bottom 6 can get into the offensive zone and cycle the puck it means we tire out their D. I also expect that our top 6 won't be a fatigued throughout the games, and the season, meaning they will be able to skate harder.

To add to the top if we aren't defending all the time we will take less penalties, meaning we will have more chances to score. And by taking less penalties I expect we will allow less goals in, which translates into less of those deflating goals that take the gas out of the team.


So yes, with a more balance team approach I expect us to score more. That is if our bottom 6 can do their job and get the puck to the offensive zone and maybe cycle the puck there.

 

[Mess]

Actually, yes. At the very least the same amount.

I'm expecting that if our bottom 6 is competent our top 6 won't have to start in the defensive zone all the time. This means increased scoring chances. Our top 6 starting in the offensive zone means more penalties will be drawn by us. Also if our bottom 6 can get into the offensive zone and cycle the puck it means we tire out their D. I also expect that our top 6 won't be a fatigued throughout the games, and the season, meaning they will be able to skate harder.

To add to the top if we aren't defending all the time we will take less penalties, meaning we will have more chances to score. And by taking less penalties I expect we will allow less goals in, which translates into less of those deflating goals that take the gas out of the team.


So yes, with a more balance team approach I expect us to score more. That is if our bottom 6 can do their job and get the puck to the offensive zone and maybe cycle the puck there.

Some fans seem to think the primary reasons for the changes was to improve the offense.

However Leafs were 26th in goals against, neither goalie had a GAA in the top 30 of the league, they set a record for shots against and their PK was 28th overall.. Team defense is this team biggest weakness.

Their #1 PK consisted of McClement, Kulemin, Phaneuf and Gunnarsson and 3/4 of that is gone.. Also JVR and Bozak made up the 2nd PK unit and if the goal is the reduce the TOI/g of the top line then taking those two off the PK would be step 1.

So not only do the new guys need to be used to rebuild the 3rd and 4th lines then need to used to rebuild the PK also with Robidas and Polak replacing Gunnarsson and Gleason but you need 2 sets of forwards.

 

[ULF_55]

Some fans seem to think the primary reasons for the changes was to improve the offense.

However Leafs were 26th in goals against, neither goalie had a GAA in the top 30 of the league, they set a record for shots against and their PK was 28th overall.. Team defense is this team biggest weakness.

Their #1 PK consisted of McClement, Kulemin, Phaneuf and Gunnarsson and 3/4 of that is gone.. Also JVR and Bozak made up the 2nd PK unit and if the goal is the reduce the TOI/g of the top line then taking those two off the PK would be step 1.

So not only do the new guys need to be used to rebuild the 3rd and 4th lines then need to used to rebuild the PK also with Robidas and Polak replacing Gunnarsson and Gleason but you need 2 sets of forwards.

Getting Bozak off the PK would leave him fresher for offense.

He should improve his offensive numbers without being sent out for half the defensive zone draws.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Getting Bozak off the PK would leave him fresher for offense.

He should improve his offensive numbers without being sent out for half the defensive zone draws.

The first PP unit is pretty much Phil and JVR, Bozak basically takes faceoffs and then stands near the front for tips. It's not good usage for a smart player like him. I think Clarkson would be more effective standing near the crease, where JVR and Kessel can work the give and go.

I'd like to see Bozak on the second unit with Lupul and Kadri. This probably has more potential to balance out both units.

 

[Mess]

Getting Bozak off the PK would leave him fresher for offense.

He should improve his offensive numbers without being sent out for half the defensive zone draws.

Agreed but who is going to take all these Dzone draws and PK faceoffs?

2013-14 F0%

Jay McClement ... TOR - 676W .. 584L .. 1260 Total = 53.6%
Tyler Bozak .......... TOR - 681W .. 718L ... 1399 Total = 48.7%
Peter Holland ....... TOR - 170W .. 194L ..... 364 Total = 46.7 %
Nazem Kadri ........ TOR - 510W .. 617L .... 1127 Total = 45.2 %

McClement is gone and he was Leafs best FO man and if Bozak is reserved for PP and Ozone play & draws then what happens defensively and on the PK?.

Losing the FO in your own zone increases opponents odds of scoring with possession and same applies for a PK that begins in your own zone face off.

Mike Santorelli - VAN .. 215W .. 204L .. 419 Total = 51.3% (49 games) looks like he is going to be busy filling in for McClement both defensively and PK as he was the best FO man from the last season. Holland and Kadri are inexperienced and not very effective on FO.

I guess that is why everyone preaches "strength down the middle" is the way to NHL success and also helps explain Leafs lack of possession numbers and high volume of shots against.

 

[egd27]

Some fans seem to think the primary reasons for the changes was to improve the offense.

However Leafs were 26th in goals against, neither goalie had a GAA in the top 30 of the league, they set a record for shots against and their PK was 28th overall.. Team defense is this team biggest weakness.

Their #1 PK consisted of McClement, Kulemin, Phaneuf and Gunnarsson and 3/4 of that is gone.. Also JVR and Bozak made up the 2nd PK unit and if the goal is the reduce the TOI/g of the top line then taking those two off the PK would be step 1.

So not only do the new guys need to be used to rebuild the 3rd and 4th lines then need to used to rebuild the PK also with Robidas and Polak replacing Gunnarsson and Gleason but you need 2 sets of forwards.

So you're upset that 3/4 of the 28th ranked PK is gone?

 

[crump]

Calling it. Kontiola will be the faceoff specialist this season. Took 900 face offs last season at 53%, 57% in the playoffs.
Pretty much over 52% every regular season. 57% in 2009/2010 on over 700 draws.
54% on his career (5210 faceoffs) in the KHL.


http://en.khl.ru/players/16158/

 

[Mess]

So you're upset that 3/4 of the 28th ranked PK is gone?

I'm not upset I'm saying they have to be replaced and that the new players are likely to be doing that. Who of the new players are going to replace them and do a better job at it is the question.

- Kesler and Higgins were Van #1PK and we added Santorelli and Booth from Vancouver.

- Kontiola has never killed an NHL penalty in his entire career.

- Komarov likely replaces Kulemin as the winger on the #1PK unit.

- Neither Polak nor Robidas played top PK unit last season either and Gunnarsson played more SH TOI/g than any Leaf Dman.

So if the goal was to improve the PK then its going to be attempted to be accomplished by players less tried and tested.

PS ... FWIW the PK unit of Kulemin, McClement, Gunnarsson and Phaneuf recorded the #2 best PK% (87.9%) in 2012-13 when the Leafs made the playoffs.

 

[egd27]

I'm not upset I'm saying they have to be replaced and that the new players are likely to be doing that. Who of the new players are going to replace them and do a better job at it is the question.

- Kesler and Higgins were Van #1PK and we added Santorelli and Booth from Vancouver.

- Kontiola has never killed an NHL penalty in his entire career.

- Komarov likely replaces Kulemin as the winger on the #1PK unit.

- Neither Polak nor Robidas played top PK unit last season either and Gunnarsson played more SH TOI/g than any Leaf Dman.

So if the goal was to improve the PK then its going to be attempted to be accomplished by players less tried and tested.

PS ... FWIW the PK unit of Kulemin, McClement, Gunnarsson and Phaneuf recorded the #2 best PK% (87.9%) in 2012-13 when the Leafs made the playoffs.

Probably due to the goaltending

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Calling it. Kontiola will be the faceoff specialist this season. Took 900 face offs last season at 53%, 57% in the playoffs.
Pretty much over 52% every regular season. 57% in 2009/2010 on over 700 draws.
54% on his career (5210 faceoffs) in the KHL.


http://en.khl.ru/players/16158/

we need that badly we sucked at that so bad.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

I like what the Leafs are doing. Giving guys a chance to prove themselves as clearly some of the players they have are not.

 

[TheProspector]

Not sure why people think there have been no changes...

Significant moves on among the coaching staff and front office.

Kessel, JVR, Bozak, and Kadri all had very good performances last year. So no surprise little changes in the top 6.

Dmen, changes to the top 4, but the positives were kept (Rielly, Gardiner?), Phaneuf was finally given some help with Robidas, and the continued development of our young dmen so depending on who gets that pairing with Phaneuf, we should see some major differences in Phaneuf's game.

Pretty much the entire bottom 6 has been cycled out.

Not sure how changing 50% of your roster equates to "nothing changed".

I guess if I flip a coin and call heads I'm right no matter what comes up...

Indeed. Our top 6 got it done last year, and even our top 2 d (Gunnar, Phaneuf) were both + players facing the strongest competition, so they also got it done.

The past season's failures 100% happened due to the bottom 3 forwards and bottom 6 defence - both 5v5 and shorthanded. The top Toronto players were competitive.

Getting rid of Gunnar - now that was dumb. +12 on a team facing the highest quality of competition that was so badly outscored means that he is a very good defenceman.

It makes sense to be rotating out the bottom 6 defence and bottom 6 forwards, though.

 

[egd27]

Indeed. Our top 6 got it done last year, and even our top 2 d (Gunnar, Phaneuf) were both + players facing the strongest competition, so they also got it done.

The past season's failures 100% happened due to the bottom 3 forwards and bottom 6 defence - both 5v5 and shorthanded. The top Toronto players were competitive.

Getting rid of Gunnar - now that was dumb. +12 on a team facing the highest quality of competition that was so badly outscored means that he is a very good defenceman.

It makes sense to be rotating out the bottom 6 defence and bottom 6 forwards, though.

I guess that how you define getting it done.

Depending on who you select for your top 6, they combined to be a somewhere between -50 and -60.

Putting up lots of points is all well and good, but if you're giving up more than you're getting, then IMO "getting it done" is not a description that is appropriate.

 

[CellarDweller0]

The Leafs problem was a high goals against and weak team defense.

The Leafs top two lines are the weak ones as ~75% of the teams goals against come when they're on the ice.

Therefore the team didn't strengthen the weak ones by the off-season moves. What they did do was hope to play the bottom 2 lines more now in an effort to keep the 2 weakest defensive lines off the ice more. If the top 2 lines are not on the ice they can't be scored on as often.

Its an addition by subtraction belief by reducing the ice time of the top offensive players in an effort to increase team defense.

This is true, but don't forget, those top lines and top pairings were overused and ran out of gas.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

I think Leaf Nation in general was looking for quality in the moves rather than quantity.

Minor moves tinkering with the fringe/depth players is something you would expect a cup competitive team to make to fine tune their chances of success. A team that generally finishes near the bottom of the league is one viewed as one that needs real help.

Personally, I don't mind what they're doing. In the shortened season, they overachieved...last year, they likely underachieved. Shanny most likely wants to see where they're at, has cleared cap space and has put on a few small (i.e. $1 or $2 million contracts for 1 year, or two years in some circumstances). This will give him the proper flexibility to blow this up if they go bust this year (i.e. fire coach, let players go, etc.) and have a chance at McDavid as well. If they perform closer to the shortened season, they are young enough with enough prospects to add additional pieces at the trade deadline and go hard in the free agent market next summer.

 

[Kubus]

Some fans seem to think the primary reasons for the changes was to improve the offense.

However Leafs were 26th in goals against, neither goalie had a GAA in the top 30 of the league, they set a record for shots against and their PK was 28th overall.. Team defense is this team biggest weakness.

Their #1 PK consisted of McClement, Kulemin, Phaneuf and Gunnarsson and 3/4 of that is gone.. Also JVR and Bozak made up the 2nd PK unit and if the goal is the reduce the TOI/g of the top line then taking those two off the PK would be step 1.

So not only do the new guys need to be used to rebuild the 3rd and 4th lines then need to used to rebuild the PK also with Robidas and Polak replacing Gunnarsson and Gleason but you need 2 sets of forwards.

Obviously the changes were not to address offense but our defensive issues. However I believe that a good defense will lead to more scoring chances for our team. Not getting outshot, less deflating goals, more offensive zone face-offs for our top 6, take less penalties, are all thing that defense can help with. All those things in one way or another actually lead to more offensive opportunities, or offensive pressure from out team, which should lead to more offense in general.

Now whether the changes we made actually work out is something we have to wait and see; however I'm a believer that if we improve our defensive zone issue it will increase our offensive zone pressure.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

We should be less skilled but be more blue collar hard working team. Hopefully that has the desired effects that management was going for.

However the departing players Kulemin, Bolland, McClement and Gunnarsson were also known for being hard working and defense oriented.

Polak is known for being hard working and defense oriented, so that could be a moot point. The guys we brought in don't seem a lot worse than Mcclemment although I thought we should keep him as a 4th liner. So did you want them to sign Bolland (after his incredible 20ish game run with the team) and Kulemin to those oversized contracts?

All I ever see is complaining around here regardless of what the team does. Everyone is entitled to complain I guess, but only the negative side of things is ever focused on. No one is talking about how much money is being saved on a bottom six that at worst is the same quality but not as good at faceoffs, but gives a younger guy like Holland a chance to earn a full time spot. These could be good moves or they could be bad moves, but I don't get why some people are bent out of shape before seeing what this new bottom six group can do. Most people ended up hating our team last season, but now they're mad that the same bottom 6 they were complaining about 3 months ago has changed a bit?

 

[Pyrophorus]

PK Forwards:
Bozak-Santorelli
Komarov-Kontiola