Do the Canucks make the playoffs in the 2019-2020 season? (#383)
- Thread starter Fire Benning
- Start date
An enlightened choice for a third posting in four years.
So if Boeser will get signed doesnt it mean we need to trade some salary? But who?
Miller Pettersson Boeser
Ferland Horvat Pearson
Baertchi Sutter Virtanen
Goldobin Beagle Eriksson
Motte
Edler Stecher
Benn Myers
Hughes Tanev
Biega
Markstrom
Demko
I cant see a point to Baertchi on this team and would prefer Gaudette to Sutter and Goldobin is NOT a bottom 6 player to be effective. So Sutter and Goldobin to be traded? But for what, who would want Sutter
Miller Pettersson Boeser
Ferland Horvat Pearson
Baertchi Sutter Virtanen
Goldobin Beagle Eriksson
Motte
Edler Stecher
Benn Myers
Hughes Tanev
Biega
Markstrom
Demko
I cant see a point to Baertchi on this team and would prefer Gaudette to Sutter and Goldobin is NOT a bottom 6 player to be effective. So Sutter and Goldobin to be traded? But for what, who would want Sutter
vanuck
Now with 100% less Benning!
- Dec 28, 2009
- 16,799
- 4,016
Ever? You must not remember the 2011 team then.
Yeah, no hyperbole there. Not at all.
PuckMunchkin
Very Nice, Very Evil!
No way for you to read the Sedins minds what they did or didnt want.
Jims mind you dont need to read. He usually just comes out and says what he wants to do and then tries to do it.
As noted in another thread, The Athletic's Dom Luszczszyn has employed a player-based model to crunch the numbers on team predictions for the 2019-20 season. In large enough sample sizes the model has shown to be quite reliable, apparently. He has the Canucks in 25th place, with a 25% shot at the playoffs. Here are some of the highlights (but it's paywalled, obviously):
Despite improvements, the Canucks are still a team on which a lot of things have to go right for them to qualify for the postseason. While the organization can finally sell the hope of a turnaround, it’s more than likely that next year’s likely leap forward will fall short of the playoffs. The team’s chances sit at just 1-in-4.
A 25 percent chance is not a lot to go on, but it’s something, and a big improvement over previous seasons when the team’s chances were 6 percent, 11 percent and 7 percent.
The big issue is not where the Canucks stand; it’s the cost of doing so. That conditional first-round pick looms large and puts additional pressure on the team to succeed. With a high probability that the team misses the playoffs, there’s a decent chance the pick ends up in the lottery, which is the last thing this franchise needs. The chance the team finishes in the bottom 10 is 56 percent, more than double the team’s chances of making the playoffs. In that vein, it feels like those in charge mortgaged the future for a little job security they arguably don’t deserve.
The pick is conditional, though, and can be deferred to the following season. That makes things a little better, but not much. In 2017-18, Philadelphia, Arizona, Ottawa, Buffalo, Vegas and Colorado were the teams with a 15-35 percent chance at the playoffs — two made it two years later. Last season it was Chicago, Colorado, Buffalo, Montreal, New Jersey and the Islanders in that range; six teams that have an average playoff chance of 38 percent this season, with only two above 50 percent. Even next year, the odds likely won’t be in Vancouver’s favour.
Starting with the forwards, there’s already a massive divide between the top and bottom of the lineup, much like some other bottom feeders before it.
- Lots of talk of Petterson's tracking to be elite, but that regression isn't out of the question; Boeser's very strong goals-above-expected rate; Miller and Ferland will help, obviously;
Horvat has first-line centre value, and having him in the two hole gives the Canucks the type of one-two punch generally found on contenders. His 1.9 wins of value is tied for the 11th highest value at that slot, making him above average for the role.
And then there’s the bottom six, which has even more holes to be filled, grading out to be the fifth worst in hockey. If you want to know what separates the Canucks from bona fide playoff teams, a large part is the forward depth, which is 2.2 wins off the average of the teams projected to make the playoffs.
- Talk of Gaudette's very weak numbers despite sheltered minutes, and the fact that that 3C (if that's where he plays) is a significant weak point: The massive play-driving problem manifested at both ends of the ice where Gaudette’s expected goals for ranked second last while his expected goals against was 12th last, just 0.05 away from the bottom 10. Only one other player — Mikkel Boedker, who is expected to be outside Ottawa’s starting lineup — was bottom 25 in both.
[Roussel is] an underrated talent who scored at a first-line rate and was second on the team in expected goals percentage.
- Hope is pretty low for Virtanen and playing him with Gaudette is "a recipe for disaster".
If [Sutter] gets anywhere close to 17 minutes again, I’m not sure how this team can legitimately picture themselves in the playoffs, though he shouldn’t be nearly as bad as he was last season.
Though the defence corps will be better overall compared with the drudge Vancouver was icing for the last half decade, it’s still well below what other competitive teams can ice. There, the gap is 3.3 projected wins, which is even larger than the one for the bottom six.
Together the new trio [Myers, Hughes and Benn] add 1.8 wins and the three departures were close to that in negative value, and the team’s group still ranks in the bottom five.
Based on [Hughes'] NCAA work, a first-pairing-calibre season isn’t out of the picture, and he flashed that potential briefly in a five-game stint to finish last season. If he can jump in as power-play quarterback, there’s a chance for him to provide big value.
While [Myers is] likely more valuable than some analysts suggest and could thrive in a bigger role, he still didn’t show much in a mostly sheltered role for the Jets last season.
Despite the numbers looking similar from year to year, last season was clearly [Markström's] best as the shot difficulty ramped up in a season when league average shooting percentage increased. He saved eight goals above expected, one of the league’s better marks, and the Canucks have to hope he can continue being above average there.
While there are some strong pieces coming together and plenty of hope coming from the youth, there’s simply too much missing here. From difference-makers on defence to depth issues at forward, there are too many holes remaining to fill to be optimistic about the team’s chances.
Despite improvements, the Canucks are still a team on which a lot of things have to go right for them to qualify for the postseason. While the organization can finally sell the hope of a turnaround, it’s more than likely that next year’s likely leap forward will fall short of the playoffs. The team’s chances sit at just 1-in-4.
A 25 percent chance is not a lot to go on, but it’s something, and a big improvement over previous seasons when the team’s chances were 6 percent, 11 percent and 7 percent.
The big issue is not where the Canucks stand; it’s the cost of doing so. That conditional first-round pick looms large and puts additional pressure on the team to succeed. With a high probability that the team misses the playoffs, there’s a decent chance the pick ends up in the lottery, which is the last thing this franchise needs. The chance the team finishes in the bottom 10 is 56 percent, more than double the team’s chances of making the playoffs. In that vein, it feels like those in charge mortgaged the future for a little job security they arguably don’t deserve.
The pick is conditional, though, and can be deferred to the following season. That makes things a little better, but not much. In 2017-18, Philadelphia, Arizona, Ottawa, Buffalo, Vegas and Colorado were the teams with a 15-35 percent chance at the playoffs — two made it two years later. Last season it was Chicago, Colorado, Buffalo, Montreal, New Jersey and the Islanders in that range; six teams that have an average playoff chance of 38 percent this season, with only two above 50 percent. Even next year, the odds likely won’t be in Vancouver’s favour.
Starting with the forwards, there’s already a massive divide between the top and bottom of the lineup, much like some other bottom feeders before it.
- Lots of talk of Petterson's tracking to be elite, but that regression isn't out of the question; Boeser's very strong goals-above-expected rate; Miller and Ferland will help, obviously;
Horvat has first-line centre value, and having him in the two hole gives the Canucks the type of one-two punch generally found on contenders. His 1.9 wins of value is tied for the 11th highest value at that slot, making him above average for the role.
And then there’s the bottom six, which has even more holes to be filled, grading out to be the fifth worst in hockey. If you want to know what separates the Canucks from bona fide playoff teams, a large part is the forward depth, which is 2.2 wins off the average of the teams projected to make the playoffs.
- Talk of Gaudette's very weak numbers despite sheltered minutes, and the fact that that 3C (if that's where he plays) is a significant weak point: The massive play-driving problem manifested at both ends of the ice where Gaudette’s expected goals for ranked second last while his expected goals against was 12th last, just 0.05 away from the bottom 10. Only one other player — Mikkel Boedker, who is expected to be outside Ottawa’s starting lineup — was bottom 25 in both.
[Roussel is] an underrated talent who scored at a first-line rate and was second on the team in expected goals percentage.
- Hope is pretty low for Virtanen and playing him with Gaudette is "a recipe for disaster".
If [Sutter] gets anywhere close to 17 minutes again, I’m not sure how this team can legitimately picture themselves in the playoffs, though he shouldn’t be nearly as bad as he was last season.
Though the defence corps will be better overall compared with the drudge Vancouver was icing for the last half decade, it’s still well below what other competitive teams can ice. There, the gap is 3.3 projected wins, which is even larger than the one for the bottom six.
Together the new trio [Myers, Hughes and Benn] add 1.8 wins and the three departures were close to that in negative value, and the team’s group still ranks in the bottom five.
Based on [Hughes'] NCAA work, a first-pairing-calibre season isn’t out of the picture, and he flashed that potential briefly in a five-game stint to finish last season. If he can jump in as power-play quarterback, there’s a chance for him to provide big value.
While [Myers is] likely more valuable than some analysts suggest and could thrive in a bigger role, he still didn’t show much in a mostly sheltered role for the Jets last season.
Despite the numbers looking similar from year to year, last season was clearly [Markström's] best as the shot difficulty ramped up in a season when league average shooting percentage increased. He saved eight goals above expected, one of the league’s better marks, and the Canucks have to hope he can continue being above average there.
While there are some strong pieces coming together and plenty of hope coming from the youth, there’s simply too much missing here. From difference-makers on defence to depth issues at forward, there are too many holes remaining to fill to be optimistic about the team’s chances.
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. . . even in small doses
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