Do most people over-rate Bogosian?

[Jet]

IMO Bogosian is probably underrated by at least as many people overrate him. Believing he could fetch a #1 C by himself is actually overrating him by a fair amount. The only player another GM would even have a conversation about a #1 C would be Kane, and he would have to be added to. In all honesty no one trades a young/in prime #1 C.

IMO Bogosian is a solid #3 defenseman. He is still very young by defenseman standards so there still exists some potential. In my view he has the physical tools to be a top pairing guy and will probably get there one day. But he probably does lack the hockey sense to be a true #1 such as a Weber.

Despite a huge giveaway earlier in the season to Perry that cost a game and a little bad puck luck he is still second on the team in +/- to Ladd. He plays 22-25 minutes a night often against the opponents top players and brings a lot of passion to the team. At $5 M per he is probably a little over paid now, but by year 7 when the cap is likely pushing $100 M he will be under paid so that averages out.

IMO Bogosian's value to the team is further enhanced because of the make up of our defense. Both our top 2 defenseman are not true # 1's in the traditional sense. Buff and Enstrom are both offensively gifted but lack in other areas compared to a Weber for example. We have a couple young studs in Trouba and soon Morrissey coming but you need a veteran guy for them to play with and guide them. Interesting both Trouba and Morrissey have singled out how Bogo has taken them under his wing and make them feel at home.

In sum, if you dump Bogo for less than full value this team will regret it for years.

I think the OP is a legitimate one, as there are a lot of people (mostly on the main board) questioning his ceiling and hockey IQ.
I think it's fair to say he has not yet shown the hockey smarts of Doughty or Pietrangelo, but that a pretty high standard to meet. OTOH, hockey smarts can sometimes be learned over time, with experience, repetition, good coaching and motivation. Bogo's physical assets cannot be learned.
As others have pointed out, he is relatively young--the second youngest D on the team, younger than Postma and Redmond, who have recently been considered "prospects".
As for his performance this season, it's too early to judge. He has had some bad puck luck, played on his off side, but looks like he's shrugging that off. His points, TOI (and +/- , w apologies to Garret) are still top-tier, despite being crowded out of the PP by Buff.
I'd trade him (and add) for an emerging top-line C, (eg Duchene 1 year ago or Seguin), if such a deal were possible, simply because of our team's strength at RHD and weakness down the middle. But nothing less.

Bogosian is currently playing the 40th most minutes amongst defensemen, while being a plus 4 (tied for 28th amongst D). There is only one defensemen in the league that has more shots than him and a lower personal shooting % (Byfuglien)

Last year a lot of people thought Bogosian was our best D. I think Enstrom was a little better last year, but due to injury I have no problem giving it to Bogosian. He's had a rough start to the year, but I think it's been a bit overblown. I was re-watching some games and he's making a lot of good plays, he's just having some really visible mistakes and I think people are thinking he's been playing worse than he is. He's deflected in a few shots but that wasn't really his fault. Personally I think it's just a bit of bad luck to start the year, once he finds some puck luck his numbers will look better.

You guys all make excellent points about Bogo.

He is performing at a level higher than some give him credit for because the mistakes he's made have looked cataclysmic. I don't doubt that guys like Shea Weber and Drew Doughty have had similar mistakes and rough patches of play.

When you see the very high expectations and potential ceiling of a player, I think you may want him to 'be there' sooner than he is able. Every player develops on their own curve. Bogo has a nice resume of NHL experience already, but he is still pretty young in defencemen years. He has maturing and learning to do, and better decision making and calmness comes with experience.

I think of a guy like Zdeno Chara. Remember when he was an Islander? He was a trainwreck. It was only in his later years in Ottawa where he started becoming dominant, and of course turned into a total beast in Boston.

In conclusion, Bogo is far from a finished product. We want him to be what we think he CAN be right now, but he still has to get there. In the meantime there are a lot of very interesting stats that show how heavily we rely on him and how well he actually does with that responsibility, despite the 'oh ****' moments.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I'd like to see Bogo over an extended time frame playing in a consistent position and with a somewhat consistent D partner. I think he will then be able to play more consistently and more aggressively. This year has been pretty weird for him, thanks to injuries, shaky D play and Noel's penchant for mixing and matching lines and D pairings.

This times a million

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I see him as a Kevin Bieksa or Brent Seabrook level in terms of defenseman. He'll never have the mind of a #1 defenseman. But give him a super smart partner like the other two and you maximize what he can become.

Hamhuis and Keith make Bieksa and Seabrook much more effective because they need to keep their game simple to succeed. Yet give them a partner of similar style and IceQ and they will struggle and make bone headed mistakes trying to do too much. I think Bogo has equal potential to Seabrook (if he plays like last year consistently he'd already be there) and can be better than Bieksa.

That's not worth the ridiculous "future #1 defenseman" packages we see on the trade forums or whatever. So in that sense he's overrated, yeah. That said he's a useful piece at a contract that's about worth what he is so there's absolutely no reason to trade him away.

Trouba, now that's a different story and even Bogo knows it

This is a really good comparison. Living on the west coast makes one see alot of Kevin Bieksa. I always found him to be overrated and his defensive partners Willie Mitchell and Dan Hamhuis criminally underrated.

 

[Tarks]

I often wonder if the Olympics is causing Bogo to grip his stick a little to tight, and perhaps is getting to his head? Does a guy like Bogo, if he played to his ability even has a sniff at making the US team? Personally, I think he does/did have a shot but I'm not sure now.

I think Bogo is going to learn a lot about himself this year and moving forward will help him to mature into an elite d-man in this league.

 

[ps241]

Nice posts that sum it up well IMO.

over-rated......under-rated.....these are pretty subjective terms. I believe he is somewhat dammed by his history and draft position in that he is held up to a very high standard. His results 5v5 have been solid since arriving in Winnipeg despite the injuries and I think he has played well recently but dude is getting some hinky puck luck.

Personally, long term, I am all good with Zach and think he will be a big part of our D core moving forward. The composition of Morrissey, Trouba, Bogo, and Enstrom will be an attractive top 4 within a season or two. I think Trouba will be "the" franchise defensman every org covets much sooner than later and that will give Zach all the time and space nessesary to grow and develop his game.

 

[BigZ65]

Bogosian is fine. In terms of any potential trade, I don't see him being a guy that is dangled, so someone would have to knock Chevy/TNSE's socks off to get him. I don't believe that TNSE would trade a guy who just signed long-term unless there was a real reason to do it. The long term deal hurts his trade value to a lot of teams. We're basically at a point where Bogosian is most valuable as a player on our team. In 6-7 years he'll be solid trade bait.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Oilers fan coming in Peace. I know he's not a C, but do you guys see anything (not sure what needs to be added on either side) to a deal involving Bogosian/Yakupov?

 

[scelaton]

Bogosian is fine. In terms of any potential trade, I don't see him being a guy that is dangled, so someone would have to knock Chevy/TNSE's socks off to get him. I don't believe that TNSE would trade a guy who just signed long-term unless there was a real reason to do it. The long term deal hurts his trade value to a lot of teams. We're basically at a point where Bogosian is most valuable as a player on our team. In 6-7 years he'll be solid trade bait.

Oilers fan coming in Peace. I know he's not a C, but do you guys see anything (not sure what needs to be added on either side) to a deal involving Bogosian/Yakupov?

The fact is that Bogo is a very valuable commodity right now, with potential to be a top pairing D for years, easily justifying his salary over time. Teams like the Oilers will be knocking at Chevy's door with proposals like the one above.

Having said that, there is no way in hell Chevy would trade Bogo for Yakupov, having just been through the Burmistrov debacle. No way.
I would look MacTavish straight in the eye and say, 'RNH for Bogo +__', or no trade. Most Oiler fans would scoff at this, of course, but there will come a time when Edmonton has to trade one of their beloved forwards in a blockbuster, in order to reformat their team. You can't win a SC without a great defence.

 

[sipowicz]

I often wonder if the Olympics is causing Bogo to grip his stick a little to tight, and perhaps is getting to his head? Does a guy like Bogo, if he played to his ability even has a sniff at making the US team? Personally, I think he does/did have a shot but I'm not sure now.

I think Bogo is going to learn a lot about himself this year and moving forward will help him to mature into an elite d-man in this league.

Bogo will be watching the Olympics on TV like the rest of us, I would put him #3 US D man on the Jets and I'm not sure any Jets D man will make the US team.

 

[Heldig]

I think Bogo would benefit hugely from a steady, stay - at - home veteran D partner. A guy like Bryce Salvador from New Jersey, for example.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

I think Bogo would benefit hugely from a steady, stay - at - home veteran D partner. A guy like Bryce Salvador from New Jersey, for example.

he had one : Hainsey>Salvador

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

The fact is that Bogo is a very valuable commodity right now, with potential to be a top pairing D for years, easily justifying his salary over time. Teams like the Oilers will be knocking at Chevy's door with proposals like the one above.

Having said that, there is no way in hell Chevy would trade Bogo for Yakupov, having just been through the Burmistrov debacle. No way.
I would look MacTavish straight in the eye and say, 'RNH for Bogo +__', or no trade. Most Oiler fans would scoff at this, of course, but there will come a time when Edmonton has to trade one of their beloved forwards in a blockbuster, in order to reformat their team. You can't win a SC without a great defence.

Oh I agree, the makeup of our team has to change. I wasn't considering the Burmistrov situation, apologies. I could see Eberle maybe being part of a deal for a d-man, but IMO RNH is the last guy that MacT is willing to move. He's been playing at a PPG since his return and getting better every game. Like a great defenseman, it hard to let go of a center like that. To be honest, I could even see Hall being had at the right price.

 

[scelaton]

Oh I agree, the makeup of our team has to change. I wasn't considering the Burmistrov situation, apologies. I could see Eberle maybe being part of a deal for a d-man, but IMO RNH is the last guy that MacT is willing to move. He's been playing at a PPG since his return and getting better every game. Like a great defenseman, it hard to let go of a center like that. To be honest, I could even see Hall being had at the right price.

Yeah, I understand, you guys are very lucky to have RNH--he is one of the players I covet most for the Jets. Hall would be too costly --and we already have our power forwad in Kane-- but there may be a deal involving Eberle for one of our defensemen, not named Enstrom, Bogosian or Trouba.
Lots of talk about this sort of thing on the main board but it has all the decorum of a bar room brawl, so I pick my spots carefully.
Thanks for coming by.

 

[Tarks]

Bogo will be watching the Olympics on TV like the rest of us, I would put him #3 US D man on the Jets and I'm not sure any Jets D man will make the US team.

I think you are right about Bogo watching the olympics on TV but there is no way I put Bogo as a #3 US d-man on the Jets. Today, he is #1 in my books despite his rough start, Buff #2 and Trouba #3.

 

[Snot Rocket]

Wheeler gave him a puck in a real bad spot, Ray Bourque would have had trouble with that bonehead pass.

Gotta agree with ya Sip.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Oilers fan coming in Peace. I know he's not a C, but do you guys see anything (not sure what needs to be added on either side) to a deal involving Bogosian/Yakupov?

Bogo has a NMC that kicks into effect after next year. Chevy won't pull a Holmgren. The only way Bogo is traded is if he asks to be. By all reports he loves the Peg so I wouldn't expect that anytime soon.