Do McDavid and Laine pose any threat to Sid/Ovi's legacies?

[filinski77]

Nazim Kadri has a pretty high Powerplay G/60 too, I wonder if the Leafs gave him more ice time if Kadri would become a top 5 goal scorer in the league?

What about even strength Goals/60? Why is Laine ranked so low with that, whilst not getting the hardest line matchups as he can?

1) Advanced stats are not the be all, end all, as they are hardly accurate at predicting the final outcome of something
2) An increase in ice-time does not = a proportionate increase in points/goals whatever. No one on this board knows Laine's physical ability and what he can actually do, the best would be him, his teammates and the coaching staff. It's just as easy to say that increasing his TOI with harder line matchups will make him score less goals as he may be more tired and face harder competition, as it is to say that he would increase production if given more time.

 

[jepjepjoo]

Nazim Kadri has a pretty high Powerplay G/60 too, I wonder if the Leafs gave him more ice time if Kadri would become a top 5 goal scorer in the league?

What about even strength Goals/60? Why is Laine ranked so low with that, whilst not getting the hardest line matchups as he can?

1) Advanced stats are not the be all, end all, as they are hardly accurate at predicting the final outcome of something
2) An increase in ice-time does not = a proportionate increase in points/goals whatever. No one on this board knows Laine's physical ability and what he can actually do, the best would be him, his teammates and the coaching staff. It's just as easy to say that increasing his TOI with harder line matchups will make him score less goals as he may be more tired and face harder competition, as it is to say that he would increase production if given more time.

EV TOI
Ovechkin 1,140:57
Crosby 1,119:25
Laine 1,106:54

EV production
Crosby 81GP 23G 30A 53PTS
Ovechkin 81GP 28G 23A 51PTS
Laine 73GP 27G 23A 50PTS

EV TOI needed for a goal
Ovechkin 40:45
Laine 40:59
Crosby 48:40

EV TOI needed for a point
Crosby 21:07
Laine 22:08
Ovechkin 22:22

 

[filinski77]

EV TOI
Ovechkin 1,140:57
Crosby 1,119:25
Laine 1,106:54

EV production
Crosby 81GP 23G 30A 53PTS
Ovechkin 81GP 28G 23A 51PTS
Laine 73GP 27G 23A 50PTS

EV TOI needed for a goal
Ovechkin 40:45
Laine 40:59
Crosby 48:40

EV TOI needed for a point
Crosby 21:07
Laine 22:08
Ovechkin 22:22

My mistake, forgot to add in that I was referring to 2017-2018 player stats

 

[Psych0dad]

Nazim Kadri has a pretty high Powerplay G/60 too, I wonder if the Leafs gave him more ice time if Kadri would become a top 5 goal scorer in the league?

What about even strength Goals/60? Why is Laine ranked so low with that, whilst not getting the hardest line matchups as he can?

1) Advanced stats are not the be all, end all, as they are hardly accurate at predicting the final outcome of something
2) An increase in ice-time does not = a proportionate increase in points/goals whatever. No one on this board knows Laine's physical ability and what he can actually do, the best would be him, his teammates and the coaching staff. It's just as easy to say that increasing his TOI with harder line matchups will make him score less goals as he may be more tired and face harder competition, as it is to say that he would increase production if given more time.

He gets equally good opposition as the first line. There is a quality of competition stat which shows that. It's been brought up in HFjets before showing that he really doesn't face any easier opponents than 1st.

Increase in icetime usually leads to more production. Laine played over 100 games at the age of 17 and he was used a lot more than 16 minutes a game. In the NHL his icetime dropped over a minute from first season to second. It's not that he is getting worse and not capable of playing more. It's due to coaching choices. There is no rational reason to play Kyle Connor more minutes. There isn't even a rational reason to play Wheeler more minutes. In same situation (Scheifele line) they pale in comparison to Laine production. And they are allowing more goals against than Laine does.

 

[Damisoph]

Losing to Heatley is more embarrassing than loosing to Ovechkin. Ovechkin is an all time great. Heatley might not even make the hall of fame...

I don't even know what to say to this. The arguments being pulled out of thin air in this thread are truly breath taking. Why can't we all just enjoy Laine for what he is, a tremendous shooter and goal scorer? Noooo, we have to try and compare him to Alex f***ing Ovechkin. Embarrassing.

 

[jepjepjoo]

My mistake, forgot to add in that I was referring to 2017-2018 player stats

17-18

EV toi needed for a goal
Laine 46:02
Ovechkin 40:46
Crosby 68:50

Is that bad?

 

[filinski77]

17-18

EV toi needed for a goal
Laine 46:02
Ovechkin 40:46

Is that bad?

Taking 13% or something like that more ice time to score? Yeah. Then you look at players like Marchand, Karlsson, Matthews who have even better EVG/60 than ovi and that gap gets larger and larger.

This is the whole point that advanced stats are not be all end alls. Karlsson and Marchand are NOT better goal scorers than Ovi or Laine.

This whole thread has become ridiculous as far as Laine fans making excuses for not scoring as many goals, not performing to certain extents. Whether it's trying to make it seem as if Laine's 3rd season is the most comparable to Ovi's first, or if it's using TOI as an excuse or what may it. You have all this talk about his development, his maturity etc, how do you know what his body and development is going to be like? He could be fully developed for all anyone knows.

Take the shades off and see that you can't keep making excuses and excuses without letting any negative opinion or factor come into play. Even if Laine wins 5 rockets over his career and comes 'close' to Ovi as a goalscorer, he will still have to put up some 100 point seasons and dominate the league like Ovechkin did to even be put near Ovi in terms as a hockey player too.

Let the kid do his thing, and once he starts actually winning some Rockets, Lindsays, whatever, then you can start propping him up.

 

[jepjepjoo]

Taking 13% or something like that more ice time to score? Yeah. Then you look at players like Marchand, Karlsson, Matthews who have even better EVG/60 than ovi and that gap gets larger and larger.

This is the whole point that advanced stats are not be all end alls. Karlsson and Marchand are NOT better goal scorers than Ovi or Laine.

This whole thread has become ridiculous as far as Laine fans making excuses for not scoring as many goals, not performing to certain extents. Whether it's trying to make it seem as if Laine's 3rd season is the most comparable to Ovi's first, or if it's using TOI as an excuse or what may it. You have all this talk about his development, his maturity etc, how do you know what his body and development is going to be like? He could be fully developed for all anyone knows.

Take the shades off and see that you can't keep making excuses and excuses without letting any negative opinion or factor come into play. Even if Laine wins 5 rockets over his career and comes 'close' to Ovi as a goalscorer, he will still have to put up some 100 point seasons and dominate the league like Ovechkin did to even be put near Ovi in terms as a hockey player too.

Let the kid do his thing, and once he starts actually winning some Rockets, Lindsays, whatever, then you can start propping him up.

1.Those are not advanced stats
2. You seriously believe that 544:33 vs 199:18 PP TOI doesn't make a difference? (rookie seasons)
3. 12.9% advantage for Ovi on EV and 53.3% advantage for Laine on the PP (17-18)

 

[filinski77]

1.Those are not advanced stats
2. You seriously believe that 544:33 vs 199:18 PP TOI doesn't make a difference?

Referring to the claims as a whole throughout this thread that Laine will surpass Ovi/Mcdavid, on the means of advanced stats and assumptions about his TOI and personal development.

I apologize that the rant was replied to your post specifically, when it's more frustration with the whole thread in total.

 

[John Matthews]

Well Laine is ahead by 80 goals when we compare him to same age Ovi.

and you negate that Ovi lost an entire season to the lock out. Laine didn't. Ovi came over at 20 Laine at 18.. Know your history folks.

 

[goblin3]

and you negate that Ovi lost an entire season to the lock out. Laine didn't. Ovi came over at 20 Laine at 18.. Know your history folks.

What? No. Laine has a head start of 80 career goals. That's all I'm saying.

 

[daver]

What? No. Laine has a head start of 80 career goals. That's all I'm saying.

He started one earlier after both were drafted as 18 year olds. Laine will have to average 47 goals over the next four years to match OV's 269 total after his first five years.

 

[RageQuit77]

He started one earlier after both were drafted as 18 year olds. Laine will have to average 47 goals over the next four years to match OV's 269 total after his first five years.

Ovi's achievements are hard to beat. However, personally I wouldn't be surprised if Patrik manages to come at least close in numbers of Ovi's first 5 years, though probably he'll be left short. Averaging 47G/year isn't out of this world for the player of Laine's caliber goal scoring finesses, but what are changes he can stay healthy next full four seasons, and keeping up constant scoring level.

I say it won't happen (while naturally hoping it would), but you never know, It's Patty. 80 U20-goals just cannot be ignored if we try make reasonable predictions about his expected trajectory and career development. Whatever, it's not a shame to be second next Ovi (applies also to other players including but not limited to McDavid, Matthews...).

 

[daver]

Ovi's achievements are hard to beat. However, personally I wouldn't be surprised if Patrik manages to come at least close in numbers of Ovi's first 5 years, though probably he'll be left short. Averaging 47G/year isn't out of this world for the player of Laine's caliber goal scoring finesses, but what are changes he can stay healthy next full four seasons, and keeping up constant scoring level.

I say it won't happen (while naturally hoping it would), but you never know, It's Patty. 80 U20-goals just cannot be ignored if we try make reasonable predictions about his expected trajectory and career development. Whatever, it's not a shame to be second next Ovi (applies also to other players including but not limited to McDavid, Matthews...).

Scoring is a down a bit so that would have to be considered. He certainly is off to a good start goalscoring-wise.

 

[Statto]

No. The only legacies they will affect are their own.