Divisional Semi-final - Portage Lakes Hockey Club vs. Quebec Bulldogs

[BenchBrawl]

Portage Lakes Hockey Club

Coach Al Arbour

Bert Olmstead (A) - Norm Ullman - Bernie Geoffrion
John Leclair - Denis Savard - Didier Pitre
Dean Prentice - Jeremy Roenick - Joe Mullen
Joe Klukay - Pit Lepine - Floyd Curry
Venjamin Alexandrov - Ivan Hlinka - Konstantin Loktev

Denis Potvin (C) - Ken Reardon
Marcel Pronovost - Brad Park (A)
Mike Ramsey - Art Duncan
Pat Egan

Terry Sawchuk
Harry Lumley


PP1: Olmstead - Ullman - Geoffrion - Potvin - Duncan
PP2: Leclair - Savard - Pitre - Roenick - Park

PK1: Klukay - Curry - Potvin - Ramsey
PK2: Prentice - Lepine - Park - Reardon


vs.


Quebec Bulldogs

Coach:Barry Trotz

Toe Blake-Wayne Gretzky-Mike Bossy
Michel Goulet-Ron Francis-Steve Larmer
Rod Bridnamour-Vyacheslav Starshinov-Tony Amonte
John Tonelli-Doug Jarvis-Ed Westfall

Extras: Ed Sandford, Murray Oliver

King Clancy-Serge Savard
JC Tremblay-Bll White
Alexander Ragulin-Lloyd Cook

Extras: Gary Bergman, Bill Hajt

Tony Esposito
Henrik Lundqvist​

Click to read more...

 

[tony d]

Good luck to my opponent, hoping to see some discussion here.

 

[Namba 17]

Good luck to my opponent, hoping to see some discussion here.

Congratulations, tony d, you made a great team. I’ll try to find some time to write my opinion, but Im very busy, so I don't know then will it be.

 

[Namba 17]

Some thoughts.
Line by line.
Toe Blake-Wayne Gretzky-Mike Bossy
vs
Bert Olmstead (A) - Norm Ullman - Bernie Geoffrion
If we look at pure offense, it's your line AINEC.
But I'm not a fun of the way you built your line. While I get, that both Gretzky and Bossy were responsible defensively, it's still Toe Blake, who will be the main defensive F in your line. But not only this. He should be the main forechecker, the main corner/board man, the main net presence and the muscles of your line. I believe, thats a little too much. I think that my line is better balanced and if it has to play against your line, my line will have advantage either in forecheking or in corners/along boards or in defense, or in the slot - i.e. in everything bar pure offence. But to play pure offense you need, at first, win all this little things I listened above.
Also, look at my top 4 D. "Welcome to the world of pain" - I think, that my mobile and extremely tough defense is exactly what can bring a lot of problems to your 1-st line, which is, probably, a little soft to play against my monsters.
Anyway, it's all about "pure offence vs balance" - depends on what other GMs prefer.

Michel Goulet-Ron Francis-Steve Larmer
vs
John Leclair - Denis Savard - Didier Pitre
I think, both lines are well-constructed, no questions here.
The main problem here is how to estimate Pitre. I think, he is either on par or not far behind Francis defensively and absolutely can't be worse than Goulet and Francis offensively. Considering Pitre's amount of 1-st and 2-d points/goals finishes in his leagues and superstar status, I believe, that he should be ahead of both, probably, not by much, though.
In this case we have:
ES VxV:
Leclair 64
Savard 57
Pitre - ?

Goulet 56
Francis 58
Larmer 48

Even if Pitre is on par with Fransis (and I think he is slightly ahead), it's still my serious advantage, because of Leclair elite ES offensive numbers.

Defensively, as I said, Francis = Pitre, Savard = Goulet and I don't know how to estimate Larmer and Leclair. Leclair was good defensively. What was Larmer? Anyway, I think, it's a wash here.

So, our 2nd lines are equal defensively, but I'm ahead offensively

Rod Bridnamour-Vyacheslav Starshinov-Tony Amonte
vs
Dean Prentice - Jeremy Roenick - Joe Mullen
I'm not a fun of Brindamour as LW. Other than that, it's a wash, I think.

John Tonelli-Doug Jarvis-Ed Westfall
vs
Joe Klukay - Pit Lepine - Floyd Curry
Tonelli doesn't make your line better offensively, but he makes it worse defensively. Also, I think, that Lepine is slightly ahead of Jarvis - Lepine was way better offensively, being all-time great defensively.
Because of Tonelli, I think I'm slightly ahead here, but not by much. Probably, it's a wash as well.

Defense.
King Clancy-Serge Savard
vs
Denis Potvin (C) - Ken Reardon
Potvin - 5 1st stars, 2 2nd stars. Reardon 2 1st stars, 3 second stars
Clancy 2 1st, 2 2nd. Savard 1 2nd.
I realize, that one can't use only stars team as players estimation, but I can't see it other than my serious advantage.

JC Tremblay-Bll White
vs
Marcel Pronovost - Brad Park
My huge advantage

Alexander Ragulin-Lloyd Cook
vs
Mike Ramsey - Art Duncan
The decisive factor here is that Duncan was much better offensive defensman, than Ragulin.
My advantage.

Goalies.
Tony Esposito
vs
Terry Sawchuk
My huge advantage.

Coaches.
Trotz
vs
Arbor
Arbor is much better. Trotz is good, but nothing more. Also, your main weapon - 1st line is not Trotz line - he definitely prefer more hard-working and grinding. He can leave with either Gretzky or Bossy, but not with both in the same line, I think.

 

[Namba 17]

Special teams

PP 1: Blake-Gretzky-Bossy-Clancy-Tremblay
vs
PP1: Olmstead - Ullman - Geoffrion - Potvin - Duncan
Gretz is the best F here by huge margin. Potvin - Duncan are better, than Clancy - Tremblay. Probably, because of Gretzky it's your advantage, but not by far.

PP 2: Goulet-Francis-Amonte-Ragulin-Cook
vs
PP2: Leclair - Savard - Pitre - Roenick - Park
Park is the difference, I believe. My advantage, or a wash.

PK 1: Westfall-Jarvis-Savard-White
vs
PK1: Klukay - Curry - Potvin - Ramsey
A wash.

PK 2: Brindamour-Starshinov-Ragulin-Clancy
vs
PK2: Prentice - Lepine - Park - Reardon
A wash.

 

[Dreakmur]

Michel Goulet-Ron Francis-Steve Larmer
vs
John Leclair - Denis Savard - Didier Pitre
I think, both lines are well-constructed, no questions here.
The main problem here is how to estimate Pitre. I think, he is either on par or not far behind Francis defensively and absolutely can't be worse than Goulet and Francis offensively. Considering Pitre's amount of 1-st and 2-d points/goals finishes in his leagues and superstar status, I believe, that he should be ahead of both, probably, not by much, though.
In this case we have:
ES VxV:
Leclair 64
Savard 57
Pitre - ?

Goulet 56
Francis 58
Larmer 48

Even if Pitre is on par with Fransis (and I think he is slightly ahead), it's still my serious advantage, because of Leclair elite ES offensive numbers.

Defensively, as I said, Francis = Pitre, Savard = Goulet and I don't know how to estimate Larmer and Leclair. Leclair was good defensively. What was Larmer? Anyway, I think, it's a wash here.

So, our 2nd lines are equal defensively, but I'm ahead offensively.

I've got Pitre at a 7 season vs.X of 75.4. If you assume he was about average in terms of ES vs PP scoring, he's got an ES score of about 50.

 

[tony d]

Thanks @Namba for your thoughts:

For me I think my 1st line is better than yours. That's due in part to the Gretzky/Bossy combo. Boom Boom Geoffrion is your 1st line's best player and I think the battle between him and Bossy could be fun to watch. Was Ullman enough of a playmaker to satisfy Geoffrion the way that Gretzky will Bossy? Olmstead and Blake looks like it'll be a wash between 2 glue guys.

For me our 2nd lines are close. Leclair offers up goal scoring and physical play. Savard will be a playmaker, what is Pitre though? That's the big question for me. On my team I have the classic ATD formula of goal scorer (Goulet), playmaker (Francis), physical guy (Larmer), I know the Larmer pick was panned but he's still a solid player who's going to bring a bit of snarl to my top 6.

Our 3rd lines are more offensive than defensive. A guy like Brindamour I think will adapt well as a left winger, Starshinov will bring both physicality and offense to my 3rd line (405 goals in 540 league games), Amonte's going to bring offense as well. On your team you have Dean Prentice, Jeremy Roenick and Joe Mullen. I think the difference on the 2 lines will be who performs better? Brindamour for me or Prentice for you? Another interesting matchup to watch in this series.

Our 4th lines are our defensive forward lines. You went for pure defense with your 4th line while I went sandpaper in the Tonelli pick. I think Westfall will be the difference here, one of the better defensive PK forwards ever. Still a solid battle.

I'll be back later with some more comments but this is a very equal series from my vantage point.

 

[tony d]

Defense Pairing 1:

Potvin/Reardon vs. Clancy/Savard:

Both are solid pairings. Potvin is a great way to start off your team. The familiarity is there to with Arbor. Reardon is good but I don't know if he should be on a 1st pairing here. His presence could really bring down the pairing even with Potvin there. Clancy and Savard for my team form a formidable pairing with Clancy providing the offense and Savard the defense. Your team has the best player in Potvin but I think Reardon's going to bring the pairing down so advantage to me.

Defense Pairing 2:

Pronovost/Park vs. Tremblay/White

I agree you have an advantage here, Pronovost and Park would be believable on your 1st pairing. Your 2nd pairing might be the best in the league. Tremblay and White are no slouches but it could be argued both are worst than Pronovost and Park.

Defense Paring 3:

Ramsey/Duncan vs. Ragulin/Cook:

A wash here, both pairings won't hurt or harm their specific teams. I've always liked Ramsey, even drafting him a few drafts back.

Goalie:

Sawchuk/Lumley vs. Esposito/Lundqvist:

I really like my team this year but 1 regret I have is not going goalie early. Your team has a big advantage in net. Sawchuk's one of the best goalies ever and Lumley's a good backup. Esposito and Lundqvist are a good tandem but you got one of the better goalies all time as your #1 and a very good backup as well.

I'll debate coaches, special teams and the extras tomorrow.

 

[Namba 17]

I've got Pitre at a 7 season vs.X of 75.4. If you assume he was about average in terms of ES vs PP scoring, he's got an ES score of about 50.

I think, if so, it means that we cant compare vxv of players of different times. At least not before II WW. Pitre was a star with 1st and 2nd goals/scores finishes, 75 is too few.

 

[Dreakmur]

I think, if so, it means that we cant compare vxv of players of different times. At least not before II WW. Pitre was a star with 1st and 2nd goals/scores finishes, 75 is too few.

Keep in mind, he played in an era where talent was spread out. Leading his league in goals may not be the best once you account for the other leagues.

For the vs x, he simply had too few good seasons. He’s got 3 elite ones and then a huge drop off.

 

[Namba 17]

Keep in mind, he played in an era where talent was spread out. Leading his league in goals may not be the best once you account for the other leagues.

For the vs x, he simply had too few good seasons. He’s got 3 elite ones and then a huge drop off.

I realize this, but even then it seems too few. His drop wasnt that sufficient he still had one 3d and 4 5th finishes, which should be enough for good 7 years vxv (yes, I understan its for different leagues, but still). He also has solid goal-scoring finishes, and he was goalscorer first.

 

[Dreakmur]

I realize this, but even then it seems too few. His drop wasnt that sufficient he still had one 3d and 4 5th finishes, which should be enough for good 7 years vxv (yes, I understan its for different leagues, but still). He also has solid goal-scoring finishes, and he was goalscorer first.

Here's where I got the numbers.

1911 - 54% of Marty Walsh
1912 - 100% of himself
1913 - 62% of Tommy Smith
1914 - 40% of Gordon Roberts
1915 - 91% of Cyclone Taylor
1916 - 105% of Cyclone Taylor
1917 - 50% of Joe Malone
1918 - 49% of Cy Denneny
1919 - 55% of Bernie Morris
1920 - 61% of Joe Malone
1921 - 54% of Babe Dye

 

[Namba 17]

Here's where I got the numbers.

1911 - 54% of Marty Walsh
1912 - 100% of himself
1913 - 62% of Tommy Smith
1914 - 40% of Gordon Roberts
1915 - 91% of Cyclone Taylor
1916 - 105% of Cyclone Taylor
1917 - 50% of Joe Malone
1918 - 49% of Cy Denneny
1919 - 55% of Bernie Morris
1920 - 61% of Joe Malone
1921 - 54% of Babe Dye

I dont doubt numbers, I doubt metodology. It seems, that vxv method doesnt work correctly for leagues with few teams, games and players.

 

[Dreakmur]

I dont doubt numbers, I doubt metodology. It seems, that vxv method doesnt work correctly for leagues with few teams, games and players.

It does exactly what it's supposed to do.

A guy who placed 5th in points sounds impressive... until you learn that the league only had 9 starting forwards.

 

[Namba 17]

It does exactly what it's supposed to do.

A guy who placed 5th in points sounds impressive... until you learn that the league only had 9 starting forwards.

The main problem, as it seems to me, is not an amount of players itself, but its effects. It seems, that the less players and games - the bigger fluctuation is. Which causes incorret vxv

 

[Namba 17]

Thanks, tony d for your thoughts!

Leclair offers up goal scoring and physical play. Savard will be a playmaker, what is Pitre though? That's the big question for me.

Pitre is at least very good defensively and he will take defensive responsibilities for my 2nd line. He was also huge, could play body and will be the second tower of strength next to Leclair, which will create a space for smaller Savard. Pitre was very good goal-scorer with all-time great shot, so, with Leclair in the slot and Savard' playmaking it gives to me very sexy combo. Also, Pitre is known as a great skater, which will match Savard skating perfectly.

 

[Namba 17]

Defense Pairing 1:

Potvin/Reardon vs. Clancy/Savard:

Both are solid pairings. Potvin is a great way to start off your team. The familiarity is there to with Arbor. Reardon is good but I don't know if he should be on a 1st pairing here. His presence could really bring down the pairing even with Potvin there. Clancy and Savard for my team form a formidable pairing with Clancy providing the offense and Savard the defense. Your team has the best player in Potvin but I think Reardon's going to bring the pairing down so advantage to me.

The main objection here - I think, you underestimate Reardon.
As I mentioned, he has two 1st and 3 second post-season all-stars teams! So, for this 5 years he was an elite defenseman. It's only his pretty short career what prevent him to be listed much higher in "all-time great" lists. If player with two retro-norrises and 3 second all-star teams is not good to be #2 D, I really don't know who is.

 

[Dreakmur]

The main problem, as it seems to me, is not an amount of players itself, but its effects.

Well, the main problem seems to be that Didier Pitre comes out a lot worse than you thought he should.

It seems, that the less players and games - the bigger fluctuation is. Which causes incorret vxv

That's exactly what it's supposed to do. It adds more context to the scoring leaderboards.

 

[Namba 17]

Well, the main problem seems to be that Didier Pitre comes out a lot worse than you thought he should.

That's exactly what it's supposed to do. It adds more context to the scoring leaderboards.

Look at you numbers - one year player is 105%, the very next - 50%. It's not usual in our time, for example. And it's not only Pitre - almost all old-timers have such ups-and-downs.

 

[Dreakmur]

Look at you numbers - one year player is 105%, the very next - 50%. It's not usual in our time, for example. And it's not only Pitre - almost all old-timers have such ups-and-downs.

That's Pitre's fault. He went from 39 points to 27.

 

[Namba 17]

That's Pitre's fault. He went from 39 points to 27.

Oh, please, leave Pitre alone. Im talking about all oldtimers. When a season is long, players go hot and cold and after 82 games it all settles more or less adequately. Any slump during short season, any minor injury and you have no time to compensate it. Thats what I talk about.

 

[Dreakmur]

Oh, please, leave Pitre alone. Im talking about all oldtimers. When a season is long, players go hot and cold and after 82 games it all settles more or less adequately. Any slump during short season, any minor injury and you have no time to compensate it. Thats what I talk about.

Yes, a longer season allows more time for players to settle into their normal production. Short seasons do allow for players to have a cold stretch impact their total in a significant way.... but a hot stretch can have a similarly dramatic effect.

Are you suggesting that we reward guys for their “hot” seasons, and ignore their “cold” seasons?

 

[Namba 17]

Are you suggesting that we reward guys for their “hot” seasons, and ignore their “cold” seasons?

I think, that vxv doesnt work for short season the way it works for long season and we cant just mechanically compare them. I doubt, that vxv is good for early years of hockey at all.

 

[Dreakmur]

I think, that vxv doesnt work for short season the way it works for long season and we cant just mechanically compare them. I doubt, that vxv is good for early years of hockey at all.

We’ll just have to disagree.

I have found that it works extremely well, specifically for the early eras.

 

[tony d]

Time to finish off my side of the comparisons:

Coach:

Arbor vs. Trotz:

Arbor is one of the best coaches ever, he was the coach of 1 of the best dynasties in NHL history. Trotz, on the other hand, is a top coach of today. Leading the Caps to a Cup last year and this year doing wonders with the Islanders. I think he'd do well with Gretzky. The type of player Gretzky is I could be the coach and Gretzky would still do well. Still you have the advantage here with Arbor.

Special teams

PP 1: Blake-Gretzky-Bossy-Clancy-Tremblay
vs
PP1: Olmstead - Ullman - Geoffrion - Potvin - Duncan

We have 2 solid powerplay units here. Gretzky and Bossy are going to be magic together. You have Boom Boom Geoffrion and Potvin on yours. I'll ask what kind of playmaker was Ullman? You'll need 1 with Geoffrion. Either way it's an advantage to me because of Gretzky and Bossy.

PP 2: Goulet-Francis-Amonte-Ragulin-Cook
vs
PP2: Leclair - Savard - Pitre - Roenick - Park

You have really sold Pitre in this series, good on you. Having Brad Park on a 2nd PP unit is awesome and will def work to your advantage.

PK 1: Westfall-Jarvis-Savard-White
vs
PK1: Klukay - Curry - Potvin - Ramsey

I think our 2 PK's are both good. When I picked Westfall I picked him because of his great PK reputation so that might help me but with the talent on the PK's here both units will do quite well.

PK 2: Brindamour-Starshinov-Ragulin-Clancy
vs
PK2: Prentice - Lepine - Park - Reardon

See above comments about the PK's.

As to our extras I think that we drafted extras that will be able to step in and play if need be but won't make much of a difference either way.

Final Thoughts:

This should be a good series, I really like your team, @Namba 17. It's a good team and it's to bad we drew 1 another in Round 1 but may the best team win. Thanks for the good debate as well.