Series Discussion Division Finals vs Colorado Avalanche | STARS WIN 4-2

[redbeardtx]

Wanna give a shoutout to Robo who got a lot of flak (deservingly) the first 2 rounds last year.

He's remade himself into a power forward near-PPG playoff guy this year. Not relying on his shot anymore and turning into more of a set up man while also providing Selke calibur defense and big hits. What a transformation.

Dude remains one of the smartest players in the NHL year to year.

Yep. Last year during the playoffs I was so damn disappointed with him after the stats he put up in the regular season. Looked lazy and disinterested most of the time. Whole new player this year, dude is blocking shots, defending well, making shit happen out there. It's good to see because I was hoping like hell he wasn't a 1 season wonder.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Robertson has been a beast outside of game 3 vs. Avs.

 

[Satan]

Winning a 3rd straight game in Denver isnt gonna be easy but we deserve it fellas

 

[Dallasman]

Just an FYI

The Avs have NEVER lost a Game 5 elimination game in their history

 

[roryjones]

Just an FYI

The Avs have NEVER lost a Game 5 elimination game in their history

Let’s not push our luck with game 7s. Need a win in game 6.

 

[Troy McClure]

I like advanced stats. I don't like people who misuse advanced stats.

"Colorado has mostly dictated the pace of play in the series, entering Game 6 with a 53 percent expected goals share."

NHL Playoffs expert picks, odds: Bruins and Avalanche look to force Game 7s

The Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars can both advance to the conference finals with a win on Friday night.

www.nytimes.com

Nah, dude.

53% xG isn't dominating. It also is greatly skewed by the first game.

Colorado's 5v5 xG by game:
GM 1 70%
GM 2 54%
GM 3 58%
GM 4 43%
GM 5 45%

The other problem is he's only looking at 5v5 xG. When you expand to all situations, it flips with the Stars getting 58% xG.

Check out what happens when we instead look at all situations. Colorado's numbers drop in all but the most recent game:
GM 1 54%
GM 2 41%
GM 3 41%
GM 4 27%
GM 5 46%

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20232024&game=30230

 

[LT]

That also doesn't account for the Stars leading or being tied for almost 95% of the series, either. The current score can dramatically affect how each team plays the game.

 

[Satan]

I like advanced stats. I don't like people who misuse advanced stats.

"Colorado has mostly dictated the pace of play in the series, entering Game 6 with a 53 percent expected goals share."

NHL Playoffs expert picks, odds: Bruins and Avalanche look to force Game 7s

The Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars can both advance to the conference finals with a win on Friday night.

www.nytimes.com

Nah, dude.

53% xG isn't dominating. It also is greatly skewed by the first game.

I told some homies to read about score effects but they were too dense to understand simple concepts

 

[brighteststars]

That also doesn't account for the Stars leading or being tied for almost 95% of the series, either. The current score can dramatically affect how each team plays the game.

But what about the altitude? lol

 

[BrettHullsToe]

...our opponents are reversed this year from what you'd expect. Vegas will be the hardest Western matchup, Colorado (presumably) would be second, and Edmonton or Vancouver or whoever would be third. So, weirdly enough, the series should actually get easier up to the Final (assuming health holds up, of course).

Said this back on April 30, and so far it's holding true - Vegas in 7, Colorado in 6, next one should be in 5...

 

[Azzuri]

We are all Oilers fans tomorrow. Dallas needs to start Thursday if we are lucky.

Rest up boys!

 

[RefalancheStillLose]

We are all Oilers fans tomorrow. Dallas needs to start Thursday if we are lucky.

Rest up boys!

I can't bring myself to cheer for the oilers.

 

[catters078]

East final starts Wednesday.

So I'm guessing West final will start Tuesday if Vancouver win tomorrow (3 days off Dallas), will start Thursday if Oilers win tomorrow and that series goes 7 (5 Days off Dallas)

 

[Elysian]

Even Duchene agrees, we deserve it

 

[Dynamite Time]

Enjoy the weekend off Stars + another day or two. Great postseason so far and only half way there but this rest will definitely help set ‘em up for the second half.

 

[serp]

Whats funny about the Petrovic insertion into the lineup is that there was absolutely no hint about it happening. Suddenly he's in warmup and next thing you know surprise he actually plays. Didn't give the Avs a chance to pre-scout and focus on him. Good job Pete

 

[roryjones]

So I hope the other series goes to 7 games and Vancouver wins game 7. Just faced Mackinnon and makar who the refs love to help win. I don’t want another series with mcdavid and draisaitl and the refs helping them.

 

[MBTendy]

Whats funny about the Petrovic insertion into the lineup is that there was absolutely no hint about it happening. Suddenly he's in warmup and next thing you know surprise he actually plays. Didn't give the Avs a chance to pre-scout and focus on him. Good job Pete

Dude was so calm back there, he didn’t seem panicked at all and did a great job in front of our own net boxing guys out. I don’t think he had one mistake this entire game.

We somehow got scarier now that we have a legitimate 6th Dman back there. I know it’s one game but that one game was such a big game and he exceeded expectations. All we need is simple hockey, ala Hanley and we might have that now. And Petro is 6’5 appose to a Hanley/Nils size.

Only way I see him out of our lineup moving forward is if Haks is healthy.

 

[serp]

I dunno if this is a permanent solution though. Give another teams coaching staff some time to hone in on him and this could look very different . Albeit not a whole lot of NHL scouting material out there since he's played so few NHL games in the last 5 years.

 

[MBTendy]

I dunno if this is a permanent solution though. Give another teams coaching staff some time to hone in on him and this could look very different . Albeit not a whole lot of NHL scouting material out there since he's played so few NHL games in the last 5 years.

I mean he’s our best option moving forward going into the WCF but you’re right, things can change when scouts do their homework.

I still think not many depth guys at all can do what he did last night in a game to that magnitude.

I believe DeBoer had him on one of his past teams too, so that definitely helps.

 

[Kcb12345]

Honestly, Oilers play Nurse and Ceci and Canucks play Ian Cole. Petrovic should be able to get by I'd hope for the most part without being too costly.

 

[serp]

I mean he’s our best option moving forward going into the WCF but you’re right, things can change when scouts do their homework.

I still think not many depth guys at all can do what he did last night in a game to that magnitude.

I believe DeBoer had him on one of his past teams too, so that definitely helps.

Maybe in rookie camp in Florida or something . By the time Petrovic made it to the NHL with the Panthers Pete was already in NJ maybe even SJ .

 

[maltrophstitan]

is there a clip of the Duchene interview somewhere to watch?
found |

 

[dalness]

We are all Oilers fans tomorrow. Dallas needs to start Thursday if we are lucky.

Rest up boys!

Not only that. If the Oilers win we can get somewhat normal 7-9 central start times. If the Canucks win they're an hour behind the Oilers we're guaranteed 8-10 central start times. Most will probably be 9-10.

 

[LT]

No thanks to Petrovic as a regular

Having him and Suter on the ice at the same time in OT was terrifying